Future of the Nigeria Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022
Nigerian defense budget, valued at around US$1.5 Billion in 2017, registered a negative CAGR of over 10% during the historic period. The country has a long history of internal conflicts negatively affecting its economic growth and stability. The recent emergence of radical Islamic group Boko Haram intensified the rebellion in northeast Nigeria and led to a state of emergency announcement by the President regarding the affected states. Nigeria is expected to spend a total of close to US$9.5 Billion on its defense over 2018-2022, and the country’s military expenditure is expected to increase at a CAGR of close to 9% to reach over US$2 Billion by 2022.
Capital expenditure’s share of the total defense budget increased from over 16 in 2013 to about 30% in 2017, and is expected to increase to an average of about 26% over the forecast period. Allocations towards the army are expected to marginally decrease from an average of about 36% over the historic period to over 35% over the forecast period. Similarly, allocations towards the navy are expected to decrease from just over 20% during the historic period to about 20% over the forecast period. Allocations towards the Nigerian Air Force are expected to decrease from over 21% during the historic period to about 21% over the forecast period.
Nigerian homeland security expenditure increased from almost US$1 Billion in 2013 to about US$1.5 Billion in 2017, registering a CAGR of over 11% during the historic period. Threats from Boko Haram and increased drug trafficking are expected to drive the country’s focus on defense spending. In order to counter these threats, the country is expected to invest in surveillance and intelligence technologies such as electronic identification documents, e-passports, automated border crossing systems, bio-metric identification, and CCTV (closed circuit television) systems, which are expected to be covered under defense spending. As a result, the Nigerian homeland security budget is expected to increase at a CAGR of almost 14% over the forecast period, from around US$1.7 Billion in 2018 to close to US$3 Billion by 2022.
Traditionally, the country has been an importer of weapon systems as domestic military production is small-scale and technologically inferior. During the historic period, Russia was the largest supplier of military hardware to Nigeria with over 30% share of imports, followed by China with around 22%, the US with about 15%, and Ukraine, the Czech Republic, and South Africa accounting for around 9%, 6% and 5% respectively. Most of the country’s imports consist of ships, aircraft and armored vehicles.
The report “Future of the Nigeria Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022” provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.
In depth, this report provides the following -
- The Nigeria defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Nigeria defense industry during 2018–2022, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country’s expenditure and modernization patterns.
- Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to capital expenditure and revenue expenditure. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country.
- Porter’s Five Force analysis of the Nigeria defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry.
- Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country’s imports and exports over the last five years.
- Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the next 10 years.
- Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Nigeria defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis.
Companies mentioned in this report: Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria (DICON), Dornier Aviation Nigeria AIEP Limited (DANA).
- The defense budget of Nigeria for the year 2017 is US$1.4 billion. For the historic period, 2013-2017, the defense budget of the country registered a CAGR of -11.09%. The defense budget is currently being driven by efforts to modernize the army and threats from terrorist organizations.
- During the historic period, the Nigeria MoD allocated an average of 19.5% of the total defense budget to capital expenditure, while an average of 80.5% was reserved for revenue expenditure. Over the forecast period, allocation towards capital expenditure is expected to increase at an average of 26.9%.
- The MoD is expected to invest in multirole aircraft, infantry fighting vehicles (IFV) and attack helicopters.
Reasons to buy
- This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Nigeria defense industry market trends for the coming five years
- The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period
- Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector
- A deep qualitative analysis of the Nigeria defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter’s Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts