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Future of the Lebanese Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

Future of the Lebanese Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

Summary

The Syrian civil war has resulted in a large number of refugees’ crossing over to Lebanon to live in camps. As a consequence, these refugee camps have increased the burden on the Lebanese economy by fuelling sectarian violence in the country and complicating its internal security. Plagued by sectarian violence, the country faces increasing threats of militancy, homegrown extremism, and unrest in refugee camps.

On the other hand, the growing military power of Israel and the volatile security situation in the region has forced the Lebanese Government to prioritize the modernization of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) with the help of foreign aid. Lebanon’s internal security expenditure will primarily be driven by the need to protect the country from sectarian violence and drug trafficking. In the coming years, modernizing the police force and developing domestic infrastructure are expected to be the primary areas for investment by the government.

Lebanon’s military expenditure, which is valued at US$2.6 billion in 2018, registered a CAGR of 2.98% during 2014-2018. Moreover, the country is anticipated to record a CAGR of 5.01% over the forecast period to value US$3.3 billion in 2023. As a percentage of GDP, the country’s defense and security expenditure is estimated to average 4.8% over the forecast period compared to an average of 4.9% recorded during the historic period.

Future of the Lebanese Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023, published by Strategic Defence Intelligence, provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following:

- Defense Industry Market Size and Drivers: detailed analysis of the Lebanese defense industry during 2019-2023, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country’s expenditure and modernization patterns.
- Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to capital expenditure and revenue expenditure. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country.
- Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country’s imports and exports over the last five years.
- Market opportunities: list of the top ten defense investment opportunities over the next 5 years.
- Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Lebanese defense industry.

Companies Mentioned: Bell Helicopter Textron, Inc., MBDA.

Scope

- Plagued by sectarian violence, the country faces increasing threats of militancy, homegrown extremism, and unrest in refugee camps. In addition, the Syrian civil war has resulted in a large number of refugees’ crossing over to Lebanon to live in camps.
- As a consequence, these refugee camps have increased the burden on the Lebanese economy by fuelling sectarian violence in the country and complicating its internal security.
- Lebanon’s military expenditure, which is valued at US$2.6 billion in 2018, registered a CAGR of 2.98% during 2014-2018. Moreover, the country is anticipated to record a CAGR of 5.01% over the forecast period to value US$3.3 billion in 2023.
- As a percentage of GDP, the country’s defense and security expenditure is estimated to average 4.8% over the forecast period compared to an average of 4.9% recorded during the historic period.

Reasons to buy

- This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Lebanese defense industry market trends for the coming five years
- The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period
- Profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers . This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector
- A deep qualitative analysis of the Lebanese defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Key Trends , and latest industry contracts


1. Introduction
1.1. What is this Report About?
1.2. Definitions
1.3. Summary Methodology
1.4. About Strategic Defence Intelligence
2. Executive Summary
3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities
3.1. Current Market Conditions
3.1.1. Military fleet size
3.1.2. Procurement Programs
3.1.3. Key Drivers and Challenges
3.2. Defense and Security Market Size Historical and Forecast
3.2.1. Lebanese defense and security expenditure expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.01% over the forecast period
3.2.2. Cross border violence expected to be a key factor driving defense expenditure
3.2.3. Defense budget as a percentage of GDP expected to increase over the forecast period
3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
3.3.1. Capital expenditure allocation to average 32.4% of the total budget over the forecast period
3.3.2. Capital expenditure to grow at a CAGR of 5.41% over the forecast period
3.3.3. Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase over the forecast period
3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
3.4.1. Sectarian violence and drug trafficking will be the key factors driving homeland security
3.4.2. Lebanon considered in the ‘highly affected’ category in terms of terrorist attack
3.4.3. Lebanon faces “high risk” from acts of terrorism
3.4.4. Lebanon has a terrorism index score of 5.6
3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
3.5.1. Lebanon to remain at the bottom of the Top defense spenders list
3.5.2. The country’s defense budget is low compared to other Middle Eastern countries
3.5.3. Lebanon’s defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP to average 4.8% over the forecast period
3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Drivers
3.6.1. Top 10 Defense market sectors by value (US$ Million) - Projections over period 2018-2023
4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics
4.1. Import Market Dynamics
4.1.1. Defense industry heavily relies on imports from foreign countries
4.1.2. The US is the key defense suppliers to Lebanon
4.1.3. Armored vehicles, artillery and missiles dominated Lebanese defense imports during the historic period
4.2. Export Market Dynamics
4.2.1. Lebanon’s defense export market is negligible
5. Market Entry Strategy
5.1. Market Regulation
5.1.1. The Lebanese Government prohibits FDI in the defense industry
5.1.2. Lebanon does not disclose any offset obligations imposed by the country
5.2. Market Entry Route
5.2.1. Government-to-government deals are the preferred market entry route for foreign OEMs
6. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights
6.1. Competitive Landscape Overview
6.1.1. Lebanese defense sector is dominated by foreign competitors
7. Business Environment and Country Risk
7.1. Economic Performance
7.1.1. GDP per Capita
7.1.2. Gross Domestic Product
7.1.3. National Disposal Income (US$ Billion)
7.1.4. Exports of Goods and Services
7.1.5. Imports of Goods and Services
7.1.6. LCU per USD (period average)
7.1.7. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies
7.1.8. Market Capitalization of listed companies as a % GDP
7.1.9. Total Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as % of GDP
7.1.10. Goods Exports as a % of GDP
7.1.11. Goods Imports as a % of GDP
7.1.12. Services Imports as a % of GDP
7.1.13. Services Exports as a % of GDP
7.1.14. Net Foreign Direct Investment
7.1.15. Net Foreign Direct Investment as % of GDP
7.1.17. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output
8. Appendix
8.1. About SDI
8.2. Disclaimer
List of Tables
Table 1: Lebanon - Army Strength
Table 2: Lebanon - Navy Strength
Table 3: Lebanon - Air Force Strength
Table 4: Lebanon - Ongoing Procurement Programs
Table 5: Lebanon - Ongoing Procurement Programs
Table 6: Lebanon - Defense and Security Expenditure (LBP Trillion and US$ Billion), 2014-2023
Table 7: Lebanon - GDP Growth v/s Defense Expenditure According to Percentage of GDP Growth, 2014-2023
Table 8: Lebanon - Defense Budget Split by Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023
Table 9: Lebanon - Defense Capital Expenditure (LBP Trillion and US$ Billion), 2014-2023
Table 10: Lebanon - Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2014-2023
Table 11: Terrorism Index, 2018
Table 12: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023
Table 13: Top Lebanon Defense Market Sectors by Value (US$ Million) - 2018-2023
Table 14: Lebanon - Competitive Landscape of Defense Industry, 2018
List of Figures
Figure 1: Lebanon - Defense and Security Expenditure (LBP Trillion), 2014-2023
Figure 2: Lebanon - Defense and Security Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2014-2023
Figure 3: Lebanon - GDP Growth vs Defense Expenditure According to Percentage of GDP Growth, 2014-2023
Figure 4: Lebanese - Defense Budget Split by Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023
Figure 5: Lebanon - Defense Capital Expenditure (LBP Trillion), 2014-2023
Figure 6: Lebanon - Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2014-2023
Figure 7: Lebanese Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2014-2023
Figure 8: Terrorism Heat Map, 2018
Figure 9: Terrorism Index, 2018
Figure 10: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023
Figure 11: Benchmarking with World’s Largest Defense Spenders (US$ Billion), 2018 and 2023
Figure 12: Benchmarking with Large Defense Spenders as % of GDP-2018
Figure 13: Lebanese Defense Import Trend, 2013-2017 (TIV values)
Figure 14: Lebanese Defense Imports by Country (%), 2013-2017
Figure 15: Lebanese Defense Imports by Weapon Category (%), 2013-2017
Figure 16: Lebanese GDP per Capita (US$), 2015-2025
Figure 17: Lebanese GDP (current US$ Billion), 2015-2025
Figure 18: National Disposable Income (US$ Billion), 2001-2010
Figure 19: Lebanese Exports of Goods and Services (current US$ Billion), 2005-2013
Figure 20: Lebanese Imports of Goods and Services (current US$ Billion), 2005-2013
Figure 21: Lebanese LCU per USD, 2016-2025
Figure 22: Lebanese Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion), 2005-2012
Figure 23: Lebanese Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (%of GDP), 2005-2012
Figure 24: Lebanese Total Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as % of GDP, 2005-2012
Figure 25: Lebanese Goods Exports as a % of GDP, 2005-2013
Figure 26: Lebanese Goods Imports as a % of GDP, 2005-2013
Figure 27: Lebanese Services Imports as a % of GDP, 2005-2013
Figure 28: Lebanese Services Exports as a % of GDP, 2005-2013
Figure 29: Lebanese Net Foreign Direct Investment (US$ Billion), 2005-2013
Figure 30: Lebanese Net Foreign Direct Investment as % of GDP, 2005-2013
Figure 31: Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (in Millions), 2005-2014

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