Transformer Report Ed 7 2019

The 7th edition of the StatPlan TransformerReport sizes demand for power and distribution transformers in base year 2018and forecasts sales from 2018 to 2025.

Generator Transformers
Power Network Transformers
Distribution Transformers
Industrial Transformers

The report contains comprehensive analysis of the transformer markets;globally, for all regions and for 78 countries, sales and the installed base bytype of transformer and ownership for 2018.

Market analysis of major countries of North America, Europe, CIS, Middle East,Africa, Asia Pacific, LAC.

The report predicts market trends in volume and value from 2018 to 2025.

The long-term demand cycle is plotted - depends on new build and historicalreplacement over decades.

Price trends and factors affecting price are analysed; input costs for rawmaterials, labour, energy, pro-duction capacity and capacity utilisation.

Transformer production capacity is assessed in MVA by country and majormanufacturer.

Production capacity in tonnes and manufacturers of electrical steel areanalysed.

Competitive analysis and market shares of the top 21 transformer manufacturers,shares or listings for countries. Does disruption loom as ABB, the largesttransformer manufacturer, exits the grid business?

Customer list - utility landscape with transmission and distribution companieslisted for 204 countries.

The Grid Edge is already impacting on the transformer mix in distributionnetworks and this will accelerate. The distribution networks are not ready yet.The changing landscape of electricity systems, with the growth of DER andrenewables, energy efficiency, electrification and digitalisation arediscussed.

Smart transformers, characteristics and technical requirements, inputs to thesmart grid, current market up-take.

MEPS - Minimum Energy Performance Standards for transformers are listed forcountries which have enacted them and the market for high efficiencytransformers analysed.

Load factors and redundancy are essential features of any network. Ignoringthis distorts estimates of transformer populations by large factors. Loadfactors range from 50% to > 100% in networks, reflecting levels ofredundancy. This is discussed in detail.



EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

THE POWER AND DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMERMARKET

THE GROWTH OF THE WORLD’S TRANSFORMERFLEEET SEVEN STATPLAN SURVEYS

TRANSFORMER TYPES - GSU, POWER ANDDISTRIBUTION, INDUSTRIAL TRANSFORMERS

Power transformers

Large Power Transformers (LPT)

Classification according to application

Generator step-up transformers (GSU)

System intertie (interconnecting)transformers.

Distribution Transformers

Pad mounted distribution transformers

Industrial transformers

NORTH AMERICAN TRANSFORMER MARKET

Transformer stock

Composition of demand

The utility market in the United States

Transformer market drivers

Utility investment

Manufacturing industry review - facilities

Power transformers

USA plant

NAFTA suppliers in Canada and Mexico

Large power transformers (LPT)

Medium power transformers

Distribution transformers

MV distribution transformer

Liquid-immersed

Dry type

LV distribution transformers

Dry type

Amorphous core transformer manufacturers

Canadian manufacturers

Purchase considerations and deliverychannels

National Electrical ManufacturersAssociation (NEMA)

CEE- Consortium for Energy Efficiency

MEPS standards

Canadian standards

EUROPEAN TRANSFORMER MARKETS

Regional overview of the European utilitysystem

Transformer voltages in the utility networkand industry

Voltage differences in the Europeandistribution networks

High efficiency transformers

A changing network landscape - distributedpower - smart transformers

European utility crisis

Transformer market Drivers

MEPS Standards

European transformer manufacturing industryreview

FRANCE

Annual demand power and distributiontransformers

Transformer stock

Market drivers

Market leaders – Alstom, Schneider,development in France

Transformer manufacturers

GERMANY

Annual demand power and distributiontransformers

Transformer stock

Market drivers

Market leader - Siemens

SGB- SMIT

German utility crisis

Transformer manufacturers

ITALY

Annual demand power and distributiontransformers

Transformer stock

Market drivers

Transformer manufacturers

SPAIN

Annual demand power and distributiontransformers

Transformer stock

Market drivers

Transformer manufacturers

SWITZERLAND

Annual demand power and distributiontransformers

Transformer stock

ABB

UNITED KINGDOM

Annual demand power and distributiontransformers

Transformer stock

Market drivers

Transformer manufacturers

TURKEY

Annual demand power and distributiontransformers

Transformer stock

Market drivers

Transformer manufacturers

CIS TRANSFORMER MARKET

RUSSIA

Annual demand power and distributiontransformers

Transformer stock

The Russian power system

Market drivers

Russian transformer manufacturers

Ukrainian transformer manufacturer

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA TRANSFORMER MARKETS

IRAN

Transformer stock

Transformer manufacturers

SAUDI ARABIA

Transformer stock

Transformer manufacturers

UAE

Transformer stock

Transformer manufacturers

ASIA PACIFIC TRANSFORMER MARKETS

Investment as a % of GDP

CHINA

Annual demand power and distributiontransformers

Transformer stock

UHV AC and HVDC transformer markets inChina

Chinese suppliers and foreign suppliers

UHV market participants

International firms in China’s UHV Market

Power and distribution transformers > 220kV < UHV

Power and distribution transformers < 220kV

Distribution transformers for MV and LVdistribution

Market drivers

MEPS Standards

The structure of the Chinese power sector

Manufacturing industry review

JAPAN

Annual demand power and distributiontransformers

Transformer stock

Market drivers

MEPS Standards

Transformer manufacturers

Overseas production

INDIA

Annual demand power and distribution transformers

Transformer stock

Electrification

Captive generation

Market drivers

MEPS Standards

Manufacturing industry review

Capacity and utilisation

INDONESIA

Annual demand power and distributiontransformers

Transformer stock

Market drivers

Transformer manufacturers

KOREA

Annual demand power and distributiontransformers

Transformer stock

Market drivers

Transformer manufacturers

TAIWAN

Annual demand power and distributiontransformers

Transformer stock

Market drivers

Transformer manufacturers

THAILAND

Annual demand power and distributiontransformers

Transformer stock

Market drivers

Transformer manufacturers

LAC TRANSFORMER MARKETS

BRAZIL

Annual demand power and distributiontransformers

Transformer stock

Market drivers

Manufacturing industry review

MEXICO

Annual demand power and distributiontransformers

Transformer stock

Market drivers

MEPS Standards

Transformer manufacturers

THE VALUE CHAIN - FROM MATERIALS TO CAPEX

The value chain at 6 levels

Sales channels

Utilities

Manufacturers direct sales

Distributor sales

Industry

Raw material inputs

THE UTILITY LANDSCAPE

TRANSFORMER SALES AT RETAIL PRICE ANDINSTALLED COST

GSU, UTILITY & INDUSTRIAL POWER ANDDISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER INSTALLED CAPACITY, NUMBERS AND AVERAGE DISTRIBUTIONTRANSFORMER KVA PER UNIT

NETWORK TRANSFORMER LAYOUT

THE TRANSFORMATION PROCESS

Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Stage 4

Network configurations for distribution -Radial, Loop and Network systems

Industry

Review of regional utility networkpractices - The link from medium voltage to low voltage

North America

Japan

Europe

Types of transformer

Liquid dielectric transformers

Dry-type transformers

Gas filled transformers

Evolution of power transformers by size andcapacity

Ownership of power and distributiontransformers

Ownership of GSU transformers

THE LONG-TERM DEMAND CYCLE 1900-2050

INSTALLED CAPACITY VERSUS DEMAND

The China Factor

TRANSFORMER:GENERATOR RATIOS - MVA:MW

SMART TRANSFORMERS

Smart transformers and the smart grid

Basic characteristics of smart transformers

The basic technical requirements of smarttransformers

Intelligent transformer substations

Smart transformer in current infrastructure

Dissolved gas analysis (DGA)

N-1 STANDARD, N-2 AND 2N, REDUNDANCY ANDREPLACEMENT

Network failure

Transformer failure

Industrial reliability

Levels of redundancy

Network reliability

N-1 and the networks

Reliability standards SAIFI and SAIDI

Electricity transmission

Large power transformers (LPTs)

Transformer/generator ratios and redundancy

Generation

Transmission

Distribution

PRICE TRENDS AND FACTORS DRIVINGTRANSFORMER PRICES

PPI - Producer Price Index

USA

EU

China

Japan

Factors impacting on manufacturing cost andselling price of transformers

Manufacturing cost

Selling price

Cost of materials

The core - electrical steel

Amorphous steel

The coil - windings - copper and aluminium

Advantages of copper windings

Disadvantages of copper windings

Advantages of aluminium windings

Disadvantages of aluminium windings

Transformer oil

Fluctuations in commodity prices

Demand for transformers, market andindustry trends

Production capacity and utilisation

CENTRAL AND DISTRIBUTED GENERATION

Trends in the generation mix

The impact of generation developments ontransformation technology

Decentralised power

Czech Republic

Germany

Italy

Spain

MEPS - MINIMUM ENERGY PERFORMANCE STANDARDS

MEPS (Minimum Energy Performance Standards)

United States

Efficiency regulations

Canada

Brazil

Mexico

European Union

The European Norms EN50588-1:2014 and EU No548/2014 apply.

Australia and New Zealand

Israel

Vietnam

Japan

China

Korea

India

Summary of efficiency standards

HIGH EFFICIENCY TRANSFORMERS

Development of a new technology - amorphouscore transformers

The market for AMTs

AMT manufacturers

Amorphous metal ribbon manufacturers

Amorphous metal transformers - AMTs

Japan

China

United States

India

Taiwan

Other

HTS high temperature superconductortransformers

TRANSFORMER PRODUCTION CAPACITY

MANUFACTURING CAPACITY, GLOBAL AND BYREGION

Capacity utilisation

North America (United States, Canada)

Europe

CIS

Mexico

Latin America (excluding Mexico)

China

India

Korea

Africa

South Africa

GLOBAL MARKET SHARE POWER AND DISTRIBUTIONTRANSFORMERS

LOGISTICS

Design of transformers

Preparation of a Transformer

Faults or damages to transformers

Voyage Assessment

Transport execution

Handling

Securing

Rail transport

North America

Europe

Africa

Asia Pacific

Road transport

Rear wheel drive

Clearance

Alternative solutions

ELECTRIFICATION

Sub-Saharan Africa

Asia

MENA

Latin America

Europe

CIS

North America

The impact of electrification on theelectrical supply industry

METHODOLOGY

Short term demand forecast

Long term demand cycle

Demand cycles and the market

StatPlan Energy Databases

Transformation capacity

Review of the transformer databases

Utility/industry ownership

The proportion of GSU/transmission PTs

Redundancy.

Figures

Figure 1: Annual growth of the transformermarket in volume and value, 2018-2025

Figure 2: The global transformer fleet2012-2017, generator and transformer capacity

Figure 3: The global transformer fleet bytransformer type, 2012-2017

Figure 4: LPT, 265 MVA, 525 kV

Figure 5: MPT 60 MVA, 275 kV.

Figure 6: SPT with 12.5 MVA with OLTC (On-Load Tap Changer)

Figure 7: An 800 kV UHVDC convertertransformer by ABB

Figure 8: Oil-filled distributiontransformer,

Figure 9: Dry-type distribution transformer

Figure 10: Pad-mounted distributiontransformer

Figure 11: A pole top distributiontransformer

Figure 12: Ratio of distributiontransformers to generating capacity, installed base 1960-2016

Figure 13: Imports of power transformers(Oil filled ≥ 10 MVA), into the United States from Canada, Mexico and Korea2000-2017 $ value

Figure 14: Distribution voltages in Europe(EU 27)

Figure 15: Market capitalisation of selecedEuropean utilities

Figure 16: Investment as a % of GDP,selected countries and economic groupings, 1980-2020

Figure 17: Market shares for UHV AC andHVDC transformers in China

Figure 18: Market shares of leadingtransformer manufacturers for SGCC’s HV, MV and LV tenders

Figure 19: Production, consumption andexports of distribution transformers in China, 2006-2017

Figure 20: Structure of the Chineseelectric power industry

Figure 21: An example of an electricitynetwork

Figure 22: The UK electrical powertransmission and distribution system

Figure 23: The traditional centralisedelectricity system compared with distributed power

Figure 24: Evolution of transformers involtage kV and capacity MVA

Figure 25: Proportion of capacity (MVA)generator, utility and private industry ownership of power and distributiontransformers by region, 2018

Figure 26: Installed capacity of power anddistribution transformers, GVA, 1900 - 2050

Figure 27: Global installed transformationcapacity and demand, GVA, 1900 - 2050

Figure 28: The cycle of demand, new andreplacement capacity, GVA, 1900 - 2050

Figure 29: Global utility transformationcapacity installed base by region, GVA, 1900 - 2050

Figure 30: Demand for power anddistribution transformers, China and the World, GVA, 1900 - 2050

Figure 31: Regional variation in long termdemand, 1900 - 2050

Figure 32: Conventional grid withunidirectional power flow

Figure 33: Active distribution grid withintelligent transformer substations

Figure 34:, Producer Price Indeces forpower and distribution transformers in the US 1967-2018

Figure 35: EU 28 Producer Price Index forindustrial manufactures 2012 to Q2 - 2018

Figure 36: China Producer Price Index forindustrial goods 2009 to 2018, 2009 = 100

Figure 37: Japan Producer Price Index forelectrical machinery and equipment 1996 to 2018

Figure 38: The manufacturing processes forCRGO and CNRGO

Figure 39: Copper prices 1970 to 2020

Figure 40: Aluminium prices 1970 to 2020

Figure 41: Transformer commodity priceindex 2009 to 2018

Figure 42: Global generating capacity mix,1990 - 2050

Figure 43: Global generating capacity mixby energy source, 1990 - 2050

Figure 44: Capacity and generation by eachenergy source as percent of total, 1990 - 2013

Figure 45: Capacity and generation by eachenergy source as percent of total, 1990 - 2013

Figure 46: Global market share power anddistribution transformers, $ value, 2018

Figure 47: Two Schnabel cars unloaded

Figure 48: Schnabel car with load

Figure 49: The largest load evertransported by road in the United Kingdom

Figure 50: Goldhofer heavy duty load

Figure 51: Goldhofer rear wheel drivevehicle

Figure 52: The trailer approaches a narrowturning

Figure 53: The trailer’s rear wheels beginthe turn

Figure 54: The trailer has turned thecorner

Figure 55: Overhead obstructions

Figure 56: Transformer off the road

Figure 57: Share of people withoutelectricity access for developing countries, 2016

Figure 58: World electrification - % ofhouseholds with electricity, 1900 - 2050

Figure 59: World electrification – numberand % of households with electricity, 1900 - 2050

Figure 60: Selected major countries - % ofhouseholds with electricity, 1900 - 2050

Figure 61: Selected major countries –Number of households with electricity, 1900 - 2050

Figure 62: Regional totals of electrifiedhouseholds 2010 to 2050

Figure 63: Additions of electrifiedhouseholds in each decade by region, 2010 to 2050

Figure 64: Diagram of new plus totalreplacement capacity

Tables

Table 1: Transformer demand, GVA and $ inreal and nominal values, 2018-25

Table 2: World transformer demand forecast,2018-2025, GVA

Table 3: World transformer demand forecastat ex-factory cost, 2018-2025, $ nominal million

Table 4: World transformer demand forecast,

Table 5: World transformer demand forecastat ex-factory cost,

Table 6: The global transformer fleet bytransformer type, 2012-2017,

Table 7: North America, total transformersales forecast at ex-factory cost, 2018-2025

Table 8: North America, power anddistribution transformer sales forecast, 2018-2025, MVA capacity

Table 9: North America, power transformersales forecast, 2018-2025, MVA capacity

Table 10: North America, distributiontransformer sales forecast, 2018-2025, MVA capacity

Table 11: US power and distributiontransformer stock, 2018

Table 12: Detailed shipment data for powerand distribution transformers in the US, 2009

Table 13: Market shares of PowerTransformer Producers in the United States, 2015

Table 14: Europe, total transformer salesforecast at ex-factory cost, 2018-2025, $ nominal million

Table 15: Europe, total transformer sales,2018-2025, MVA

Table 16: Europe, power transformer sales,2018-2025, MVA

Table 17: Europe, distribution transformersales, 2018-2025, MVA

Table 18: French power and distributiontransformer stock, 2018

Table 19: German power and distributiontransformer stock, 2018

Table 20: Italian power and distributiontransformer stock, 2017

Table 21: Spanish power and distributiontransformer stock, 2018

Table 22: Swiss power and distributiontransformer stock, 2018

Table 23: UK power and distributiontransformer stock, 2018

Table 24: Turkish power and distributiontransformer stock, 2018

Table 25: CIS, total transformer salesforecast at ex-factory cost, 2018-2025, $ nominal million

Table 26: CIS, total transformer sales,2018-2025, MVA

Table 27: CIS, power transformer sales,2018-2025, MVA

Table 28: CIS distribution transformersales, 2018-2025, MVA

Table 29: Russian power and distributiontransformer stock, 2018

Table 30: MENA, total transformer salesforecast at ex-factory cost, 2018-2025, $ nominal million

Table 31: MENA, total transformer sales,2018-2025, MVA

Table 32: MENA, power transformer sales,2018-2025, MVA

Table 33: MENA, distribution transformersales, 2018-2025, MVA

Table 34: Iranian power and distributiontransformer stock, 2018

Table 35: Saudi Arabian power anddistribution transformer stock, 2018

Table 36: UAE power and distributiontransformer stock, 2018

Table 37: Asia Pacific, total transformersales forecast at ex-factory cost, 2018-2025

Table 38: Asia Pacific, total transformersales, 2018-2025, MVA

Table 39: Asia Pacific, power transformersales, 2018-2025, MVA

Table 40: Asia Pacific, distributiontransformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA

Table 41: Chinese power and distributiontransformer stock, 2018

Table 42: The operational UHV circuits inChina in 2017

Table 43: UHV circuits under constructionin China in 2017

Table 44: Key Technologies for UHV ACsystems

Table 45: Key technologies for UVH DCsystems

Table 46: Japanese power and distributiontransformer stock, 2018

Table 47: Transformer manufacturers inJapan

Table 48: Indian power and distributiontransformer stock, 2018

Table 49: Indian transformer productioncapacity GVA

Table 50: Transformer manufacturers inIndia

Table 51: Indonesian power and distributiontransformer stock, 2018

Table 52: Korean power and distributiontransformer stock, 2018

Table 53: Taiwanese power and distributiontransformer stock, 2018

Table 54: Thai power and distributiontransformer stock, 2018

Table 55: LAC, total transformer salesforecast at ex-factory cost, 2018-2025, $ nominal million

Table 56: LAC, total transformer sales,2018-2025, MVA

Table 57: LAC, power transformer sales,2018-2025, MVA

Table 58: LAC, distribution transformersales, 2018-2025, MVA

Table 59: Brazilian power and distributiontransformer stock, 2018

Table 60: Mexican power and distributiontransformer stock, 2018

Table 61: Costs and mark-up from Bill ofMaterials to Capex

Table 62: Electricity transmission anddistribution companies of the world.

Table 63: Transformer demand at ex-factoryand installed cost by region, 2018-2025, $ million

Table 64: Generator, Utility and IndustrialPower and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by country and ownership,World, 2018

Table 65: Number and average capacity inkVA of Distribution transformers by country and ownership, World, 2018

Table 66: Generator, Utility and IndustrialPower and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by country and ownership,North America, 2018

Table 67: Number and average capacity inkVA of Distribution transformers by country and ownership North America, 2018

Table 68: Generator, Utility and IndustrialPower and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by country and ownership,Europe, 2018

Table 69: Number and average capacity inkVA of distribution transformers by country and ownership, Europe, 2018

Table 70: Generator, Utility and IndustrialPower and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by country and ownership,CIS, 2018

Table 71: Number and average capacity inkVA of distribution transformers by country and ownership, CIS, 2018

Table 72: Generator, Utility and IndustrialPower and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by country and ownership,Middle East and North Africa, 2018

Table 73: Number and average capacity inkVA of distribution transformers by country and ownership, Middle East andNorth Africa, 2018

Table 74: Generator, Utility and IndustrialPower and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by country and ownership,Asia Pacific, 2018

Table 75: Number and average capacity inkVA of distribution transformers by country and ownership, Asia Pacific, 2018

Table 76: Generator, Utility and IndustrialPower and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by country and ownership,Sub-Saharan Africa, 2018

Table 77: Number and average capacity inkVA of distribution transformers by country and ownership Africa, 2017

Table 78: Generator, Utility and IndustrialPower and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by country and ownership,LAC, 2018

Table 79: Number and average capacity inkVA of distribution transformers by country and ownership, LAC, 2018

Table 80: Average consumers per LVdistribution transformer in selected countries, 2018

Table 81: Ratios of transformation capacity(MVA) to generating capacity (MW), World, 2018

Table 82: Ratios of transformation capacity(MVA) to generating capacity (MW), Europe, 2018

Table 83: Ratios of transformation capacity(MVA) to generating capacity (MW), CIS, 2018

Table 84: Ratios of transformation capacity(MVA) to generating capacity (MW), Middle East and North Africa, 2018

Table 85: Ratios of transformation capacity(MVA) to generating capacity (MW), S-S Africa, 2018

Table 86: Ratios of transformation capacity(MVA) to generating capacity (MW), Asia Pacific, 2018

Table 87: Ratios of transformation capacity(MVA) to generating capacity (MW), North America, 2018

Table 88: Ratios of transformation capacity(MVA) to generating capacity (MW), Latin America, 2018

Table 89: Cost of materials.

Table 90: Voltage level of for connectionto the grid, German rules

Table 91: Grid voltage connection byinstallation size for solar PV in Czech Republic, 2012

Table 92: Grid voltage connection byinstallation size for solar PV in Germany, 2012

Table 93: Grid voltage connection byinstallation size for solar PV in Italy, 2012

Table 94: Grid voltage connection byinstallation size for solar PV in Spain, 2012

Table 95: Network losses by region

Table 96: The vast majority of countrieshave yet to take such action.

Table 97: A summary of liquid filleddistribution transformer efficiency programmes

Table 98:Summary of dry-type distributiontransformer efficiency programmes

Table 99: Manufacturers of energy efficienttransformers in China, 2013

Table 100: World production capacity fortransformers, GVA, 2019

Table 101: Global leaders productioncapacity power and distribution transformers, GVA, 2019

Table 102: CIS, production capacity powerand distribution transformers, GVA, 2013

Table 103: China, domestic productioncapacity power and distribution transformers, GVA, 2019

Table 104: India, production capacity powerand distribution transformers, GVA, 2007 - 2019

Table 105: Population and electricalparameters of South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa

 

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