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Transformer Report 2017 Ed 5

Transformer Report 2017 Ed 5

This is the 5th edition of the StatPlan Transformer Report. The report sizes demand for power and distribution transformers in base year 2016 and forecasts demand from 2017 to 2021.

The report contains comprehensive quantitative data and qualitative analysis about the transformer markets, globally and for all regions and countries.

Generator Transformers
Power Network Transformers
Distribution Transformers

The report analyses the global market for power and distribution transformers in 2016. A detailed analysis of the installed base by type of transformer and ownership is shown.

The report predicts future market trends in volume and value from 2017 to 2021, and ex-amines the factors affecting price; input costs for raw materials, labour, energy and production capacity.

Production and manufacture are surveyed and levels of production capacity assessed.

The leading transformer manufacturers are ranked.

The changing landscape of generation and the networks with the growth of DER and re-newables, energy efficiency, logistics, electrification and other issues are identified and discussed.

The global market, regions and major markets are surveyed with detailed reports.


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The power transformer market
United States
Europe
CIS
Middle East and Africa
Asia Pacific
China
Japan
India
Korea
Taiwan
LAC
Long term demand cycle
Transformer: generator capacity ratios - MVA - MW
Channels to market
Transformer types
Efficiency transformers
Smart transformers
Trends in the generation mix
Manufacturing capacity, global and by region
Price trend
Redundancy
Logistics
Electrification
1. THE POWER AND DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER MARKET
2. NORTH AMERICAN TRANSFORMER MARKET
MARKET REVIEW
Transformer stock
Composition of demand
The utility market in the United States
Market drivers
Utility investment
Manufacturing industry review - facilities
Power transformers
USA plant
NAFTA suppliers in Canada and Mexico
Large power transformers (LPT)
Medium power transformers
Distribution transformers
MV distribution transformer
Liquid immersed
Dry type
LV distribution transformers
Dry type
Purchase considerations and delivery channels
National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA)
CEE- Consortium for Energy Efficiency
MEPS standards
3. EUROPEAN TRANSFORMER MARKETS
REGIONAL MARKET
Regional overview of the European utility system
Transformer voltages in the utility network and industry
High efficiency transformers
A changing network landscape - Distributed Power – smart transformers
European utility crisis
Market Drivers
MEPS Standards
European manufacturing industry review
FRANCE
Transformer stock
Market drivers
Market leaders – Alstom, Schneider, development in France
GERMANY
Transformer stock
Market drivers
Market leader - Siemens
German utility crisis
Transformer manufacturers
ITALY
Transformer stock
Market drivers
Transformer manufacturers
SPAIN
Transformer stock
Market drivers
Transformer manufacturers
UNITED KINGDOM
Transformer stock
Market drivers
Transformer manufacturers
TURKEY
Transformer stock
Market drivers
Transformer manufacturers
4. CIS TRANSFORMER MARKET
RUSSIA
Transformer stock
Market drivers
Transformer manufacturers
5. MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA TRANSFORMER MARKETS
6. ASIA PACIFIC TRANSFORMER MARKETS
REGIONAL OVERVIEW
Investment as a % of GDP
CHINA
Transformer stock
Market drivers
MEPS Standards
Manufacturing industry review
JAPAN
Transformer stock
Market drivers
MEPS Standards
Transformer manufacturers
Overseas production
INDIA
Transformer stock
Market drivers
MEPS Standards
Manufacturing industry review
KOREA
Transformer stock
Market drivers
Transformer manufacturers
TAIWAN
Transformer stock
Market drivers
Transformer manufacturers
7. LAC TRANSFORMER MARKETS
BRAZIL
Transformer stock
Market drivers
Manufacturing industry review
MEXICO
Transformer stock
Market drivers
MEPS Standards
Transformer manufacturers
8. TRANSFORMER DEMAND AT EX-FACTORY AND INSTALLED COST
GLOBAL DEMAND
NORTH AMERICA
EUROPE AND CIS
MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA
ASIA PACIFIC
LAC
9. TRANSFORMER DEMAND IN MVA CAPACITY
GLOBAL DEMAND
NORTH AMERICA
EUROPE AND CIS
MIDDLE EAST
AFRICA
ASIA PACIFIC
LAC
10. UTILITY, GSU & INDUSTRIAL POWER AND DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER INSTALLED CAPACITY, NUMBERS AND AVERAGE DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER KVA PER UNIT
11. NETWORK TRANSFORMER LAYOUT
THE TRANSFORMATION PROCESS
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Stage 4
Network Configurations for distribution - Radial, Loop and Network systems
INDUSTRY
Review of regional utility network practices
The link from medium voltage to low voltage
North America
Japan
Europe
Types of transformer
Liquid dielectric transformers
Dry type transformers
Gas filled transformers
Evolution of power transformers by size and capacity
Ownership of power and distribution transformers
Ownership of GSU transformers
12. THE LONG-TERM DEMAND CYCLE 1900-2050
INSTALLED CAPACITY
INSTALLED CAPACITY VERSUS DEMAND
The China Factor
13. TRANSFORMER: GENERATOR CAPACITY RATIOS - MVA: MW
14. SMART TRANSFORMERS
15. N-1 STANDARD, N-2 AND 2N, REDUNDANCY AND REPLACEMENT
Network failure
Transformer failure
Transformer age
Tap changer
Windings
Core
Tank
Solid insulation
Cooler
Oil insulation
Bushings
Industrial reliability
Network reliability
N-1 and the networks
Electricity distribution
Electricity transmission
Massive size of a power transformer
Transformer/generator ratios and redundancy
Generation
Transmission
Distribution
16. PRICE TRENDS AND FACTORS DRIVING TRANSFORMER PRICES
PPI - Producer Price Index
USA
EU
China
Japan
Korea
Demand for transformers - market and industry trends
Production capacity
Production capacity of raw materials
Production capacity of manufactured equipment
Manufacturing input cost composition
Composition of manufacturing inputs
Input costs - raw materials
Metal consumption
Steel
Electrical Steel
The electrical steel market
Electrical steel producers
Copper and Aluminium
Copper
Aluminium
Transformer oil
Input costs – labour
Input costs – energy
17. THE POINT OF CONNECTION, CENTRAL AND DISTRIBUTED GENERATION AND VOLTAGE
Trends in the generation mix
The impact of generation developments on transformation technology
Decentralised power
Czech Republic
Germany
Italy
Spain
18. ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND HIGH EFFICIENCY TRANSFORMERS
MEPS (Minimum Energy Performance Standards)
United States
Canada
Mexico
European Union
Australia
Japan
China
India
Korea
Development of a new technology - amorphous core transformers
The market for AMTs
Amorphous metal ribbon manufacturers
Japan
China
India
Taiwan
Other
HTS –high temperature superconductor transformers
19. TRANSFORMER PRODUCTION CAPACITY
MANUFACTURING CAPACITY, GLOBAL AND BY REGION
North America (United States, Canada)
Mexico
Latin America (excluding Mexico)
China
India
Korea
Europe
CIS
Africa
Global balance of production capacity and demand
20. LOGISTICS
Rail transport
Road transport
Alternative solutions
21. ELECTRIFICATION
Regional growth characteristics
Sub-Saharan Africa
Asia
MENA
Latin America
Europe
CIS
North America
The impact of electrification on the electrical supply industry
22. METHODOLOGY
Short term demand forecast
Long term demand cycle
Demand cycles and the market
StatPlan Energy Databases
Transformation capacity
Figures
Figure 2: Annual growth of the transformer market in volume and value, 2016 to 2020
Figure 3: Real and nominal % growth in the transformer market, by region, from 2016-2021
Figure 4: Ratio of distribution transformers to generating capacity, installed base 1960 to 2016
Figure 5: Utility investment in transmission and distribution, 1977 to 2015, nominal $
Figure 6: Imports of power transformers (Oil filled ≥ 10 MVA), into the United States from
Figure 7: Market capitalisation of seleced European utilities
Figure 8: RWE Profit and loss
Figure 9: Moody’s downgrades in utility credit ratings 2008 to 2013
Figure 10: Investment as a % of GDP, selected countries and economic groupings, 1980-2020
Figure 11: The UK Electrical Power Transmission and Distribution System
Figure 12: Evolution of transformers in voltage kV and capacity MVA
Figure 13: Proportion of capacity (MVA) generator, utility and private industry ownership of power and distribution transformers by region, 2016
Figure 14: Installed capacity of power and distribution transformers, GVA, 1900 - 2050
Figure 15: Global installed transformation capacity and demand 1900 - 2050, GVA
Figure 16: The cycle of demand, new and replacement capacity, 1900 - 2050, GVA.
Figure 17: Global utility transformation capacity installed base, GVA, 1900 – 2050
Figure 18: Demand for power and distribution transformers, China and the World GVA
Figure 19: Regional variation in long term demand
Figure 20: Theoretical investment trends and short term adjustment.
Figure 21: Power, distribution and speciality transformers Producer Price Index, USA, 2005=100,
Figure 22: Europe Producer Price Index for industrial manufactures 2012 to Q2 - 2016
Figure 23: China Producer Price Index for industrial goods 2005 to 2015
Figure 24: Japan Producer Price Index for electrical machinery and equipment 1996 to 2016
Figure 25: Korea Producer Price Index for industrial goods 2012 to 2016
Figure 26: Costs of manufacturing an oil filled- transformer
Figure 27: Copper prices 2000-2025
Figure 28: Aluminium prices 2000-2025
Figure 29: Labour compensation cost, including direct pay, social insurance expenditures, and labour-related taxes (US = 100).
Figure 30: Labour costs including wages and salaries, social insurance and labour-related taxes
Figure 31: Minimum wages in China in yuan per month 1995 to 2012
Figure 32: Wage inflation in China versus the US, India and Mexico, 2005 to2012
Figure 33: Global energy cost index (2010 = 100)
Figure 34: Global generating capacity mix, 1990 - 2050
Figure 35: Global generating capacity mix by energy source, 1990 - 2050
Figure 36: Capacity and generation by each energy source as percent of total, 1990 - 2013
Figure 37: Capacity and generation by each energy source as percent of total, 1990 - 2013
Figure 38: Two Schnabel cars unloaded
Figure 39: Schnabel car with load
Figure 40: The largest load ever transported by road in the United Kingdom
Figure 41: Overhead obstructions
Figure 42: Transformer off the road
Figure 43: Share of people without electricity access for developing countries
Figure 44: World electrification - % of households with electricity, 1900-2050
Figure 45: World electrification – number and % of households with electricity, 1900-2050
Figure 46: Selected major countries - % of households with electricity, 1900-2050
Figure 47: Selected major countries – Number of households with electricity, 1900-2050
Figure 48: Additions of electrified households in each decade by region, 2010 to 2050
Figure 49: Regional totals of electrified households 2010 to 2050
Figure 50: Diagram of new plus total replacement capacity
Tables
Table 1: Power and distribution transformer demand, MVA and $ in real and nominal values
Table 2: World, total transformer demand forecast at ex-factory cost, 2016-2021, $ nominal million
Table 3: World, generator transformer demand forecast at ex-factory cost, 2016-2021, $ nominal million
Table 4: World, power network transformer demand forecast at ex-factory cost, 2016-2021, $ nominal million
Table 5: World, distribution transformer demand forecast at ex-factory cost, 2016-2021, $ nominal million
Table 6: North America, total transformer demand forecast at ex-factory cost, 2016-2021, $ nominal million
Table 7: North America, generator transformer demand forecast at ex-factory cost, 2016-2021, $ nominal million
Table 8: North America, power network transformer demand forecast at ex-factory cost, 2016-2021, $ nominal million
Table 9: North America, distribution transformer demand forecast at ex-factory cost, 2016-2021, $ nominal million
Table 10: US power and distribution transformer stock, 2016
Table 11: Detailed shipment data for power and distribution transformers in the US, 2009
Table 12: Market shares of Power Transformer Producers in the United States
Table 13: Europe, total transformer demand forecast at ex-factory cost, 2016-2021, $ nominal million
Table 14: Europe, generator transformer demand forecast at ex-factory cost, 2016-2021, $ nominal million
Table 15: Europe, power network transformer demand forecast at ex-factory cost, 2014-2020, $ nominal million
Table 16: Europe, distribution transformer demand forecast at ex-factory cost, 2014-2020, $ nominal million
Table 17: French power and distribution transformer stock, 2016
Table 18: German power and distribution transformer stock, 2016
Table 19: Italian power and distribution transformer stock, 2016
Table 20: Spanish power and distribution transformer stock, 2016
Table 21: UK power and distribution transformer stock, 2016
Table 22: Turkish power and distribution transformer stock, 2016
Table 23: Russian power and distribution transformer stock, 2016
Table 24: MENA, total transformer demand forecast at ex-factory cost, 2016-2021, $ nominal million
Table 25: MENA, generator transformer demand forecast at ex-factory cost, 2016-2021, $ nominal million
Table 26: MENA, power transformer demand forecast at ex-factory cost, 2016-2021, $ nominal million
Table 27: MENA, distribution transformer demand forecast at ex-factory cost, 2016-2021, $ nominal million
Table 28: Asia Pacific, total transformer demand forecast at ex-factory cost, 2016-2021, $ nominal million
Table 29: Asia Pacific, generator transformer demand forecast at ex-factory cost, 2016-2021, $ nominal million
Table 30: Asia Pacific, power network transformer demand forecast at ex-factory cost, 2016-2021, $ nominal million
Table 31: Asia Pacific, distribution transformer demand forecast at ex-factory cost, 2016-2021, $ nominal million
Table 32: Chinese power and distribution transformer stock, 2016
Table 33: Japanese power and distribution transformer stock, 2016
Table 34: Transformer manufacturers in Japan
Table 35: Indian power and distribution transformer stock, 2016
Table 36: Transformer manufacturers in India
Table 37: Korean power and distribution transformer stock, 2016
Table 38: Taiwanese power and distribution transformer stock, 2016
Table 39: LAC, total transformer demand forecast at ex-factory cost, 2016-2021, $ nominal million
Table 40: LAC, generator transformer demand forecast at ex-factory cost, 2016-2021, $ nominal million
Table 41: LAC, power network transformer demand forecast at ex-factory cost, 2016-2021, $ nominal million
Table 42: LAC, distribution transformer demand forecast at ex-factory cost, 2016-2021, $ nominal million
Table 43: Brazilian power and distribution transformer stock, 2016
Table 44: Mexican power and distribution transformer stock, 2016
Table 45: Transformer demand at ex-factory and installed cost, World, 2016, $ million
Table 46: Transformer demand at ex-factory and installed cost, North America, 2016, $ million
Table 47: Transformer demand at ex-factory and installed cost, Europe and CIS, 2016, $ million
Table 48: Transformer demand at ex-factory and installed cost, Middle East and Africa, 2016, $ million
Table 49: Transformer demand at ex-factory and installed cost, Asia Pacific, 2016, $ million
Table 50: Transformer demand at ex-factory and installed cost, LAC, 2016, $ million
Table 51: Annual demand for power and distribution transformers, MVA, World, 2016-2021
Table 52: Annual demand for power and distribution transformers, MVA, North America, 2016-21
Table 53: Annual demand for power transformers, MVA, North America 2016-2021
Table 54: Annual demand for distribution transformers, MVA, North America, 2016-2021
Table 55: Annual demand for power and distribution transformers, MVA, Europe and CIS, 2016-2021
Table 56: Annual demand for power transformers, MVA, Europe and CIS, 2016-2021
Table 57: Annual demand for power transformers, MVA, Europe and CIS, 2016-2021
Table 58: Annual demand for power and distribution transformers, MVA, Middle East, 2016-2021
Table 59: Annual demand for power transformers, MVA, Middle East, 2016-2021
Table 60: Annual demand for distribution transformers, MVA, Middle East, 2016-2021
Table 61: Annual demand for power and distribution transformers, MVA, Africa, 2016-2021
Table 62: Annual demand for power transformers, MVA, Africa, 2016-2021
Table 63: Annual demand for distribution transformers, MVA, Africa, 2016-2021
Table 64: Annual demand for power and distribution transformers, MVA, Asia Pacific, 2016-2021
Table 65: Annual demand for power transformers, MVA, Asia Pacific, 2016-2021
Table 66: Annual demand for distribution transformers, MVA, Asia Pacific, 2016-2021
Table 67: Annual demand for power and distribution transformers, MVA, LAC, 2016-2021
Table 68: Annual demand for power transformers, MVA, LAC, 2016-2021
Table 69: Annual demand for distribution transformers, MVA, LAC, 2016-2021
Table 70: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by country and ownership, World, 2016
Table 71: Number and average capacity in kVA of distribution transformers by country and ownership, World, 2016
Table 72: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by country and ownership, North America, 2016
Table 73: Number and average capacity in kVA of distribution transformers by country and ownership North America, 2016
Table 74: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by country and ownership, Europe, 2016
Table 75: Number and average capacity in kVA of distribution transformers by country and ownership, Europe, 2016
Table 76: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by country and ownership, CIS, 2016
Table 77: Number and average capacity in kVA of distribution transformers by country and ownership, CIS, 2016
Table 78: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by country and ownership, Middle East, 2016
Table 79: Number and average capacity in kVA of distribution transformers by country and ownership, Middle East, 2016
Table 80: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by country and ownership, Asia Pacific, 2016
Table 81: Number and average capacity in kVA of distribution transformers by country and ownership, Asia Pacific, 2016
Table 82: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by country and ownership, Africa, 2016
Table 83: Number and average capacity in kVA of distribution transformers by country and ownership Africa, 2016
Table 84: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by country and ownership, LAC, 2016
Table 85: Number and average capacity in kVA of distribution transformers by country and ownership, LAC, 2016
Table 86: Average numbers of household consumers per DT
Table 87: Number of LV consumers, number of distribution transformers and average LV customers per transformer in selected countries, 2014
Table 88: Ratios of transformation capacity (MVA) to generating capacity (MW), World
Table 89: Ratios of transformation capacity (MVA) to generating capacity (MW), Europe
Table 90: Ratios of transformation capacity (MVA) to generating capacity (MW), CIS
Table 91: Ratios of transformation capacity (MVA) to generating capacity (MW), Middle East
Table 92: Ratios of transformation capacity (MVA) to generating capacity (MW), Africa
Table 93: Ratios of transformation capacity (MVA) to generating capacity (MW), Asia Pacific
Table 94: Ratios of transformation capacity (MVA) to generating capacity (MW), North America
Table 95: Ratios of transformation capacity (MVA) to generating capacity (MW), Latin America
Table 96: Electrical steel producers by country and production in 2009
Table 97: Voltage level of for connection to the grid, German rules
Table 98: Grid voltage connection by installation size for solar PV in Czech Republic, 2012
Table 99: Grid voltage connection by installation size for solar PV in Germany, 2012
Table 100: Grid voltage connection by installation size for solar PV in Italy, 2012
Table 101: Grid voltage connection by installation size for solar PV in Spain, 2012
Table 102: Network losses by region
Table 103: Manufacturers of energy efficient transformers in China, 2013
Table 104: Global manufacturers’ production capacity power and distribution transformers, 2016
Table 105: China, domestic manufacturers’ production capacity power and distribution transformers, 2013
Table 106: India, manufacturers’ production capacity power and distribution transformers, 2013
Table 107: CIS, manufacturers’ production capacity power and distribution transformers, 2013
Table 108: Population and electrical parameters of South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa

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