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Power Sector Report Generation – A comprehensive analysis of the infrastructure, capex and markets of the generation section

Power Sector Report Generation – A comprehensive analysis of the infrastructure, capex and markets of the generation section

The Power Sector is often treated as synonymous with the electrical utility industry but it is much larger than that. The Power Sector encompasses a wide range of entities which are engaged in the generation, transmission or distribution of electricity; not only electricity utilities but other types of utility, industrial companies, agricultural establishments, even household generators. The capital expenditure, markets for power equipment and the infrastructure itself are wide ranging and extend beyond the electrical utilities. The series of Power Sector Reports covers all of these segments.

The infrastructure is enormous, with more than 6,228 GW of recorded installed globally in 2015 and annual demand in excess of 359 GW, 6 million km of transmission and 71 million km of distribution lines. This is analysed in detail, with forecasts of capacity, installed plant and annual demand for every country. Generating capacity by energy source and patterns of new purchase and replacement are mapped to 2020.

Capital expenditure on the plants and networks amounting to $750 billion in 2015. This expenditure is charted historically, forecast to 2020 and analysed by infrastructure segment, energy source and region and by cost component.


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Power Sector
Infrastructure
Supply side measures to reduce man made emisssions
Emission types and end-of-pipe control measures
Cost reductions and the learning rate for CCS
THE POWER SECTOR REPORT
THE STRUCTURE OF THIS REPORT
1. INTRODUCTION TO THE POWER SECTOR
The scale of the power sector
The participants in the Power Sector
2. UTILITY SECTORS
3. OTHER UTILITY SECTORS, AS GENERATORS AND CONSUMERS
4. INDUSTRIAL AND CAPTIVE GENERATION
5. THE USE OF ELECTRICITY BY SECTOR
6. THE DEVELOPMENT OF INSTALLED GENERATING CAPACITY IN THE POWER SECTOR
7. INSTALLED GENERATING CAPACITY BY ENERGY SOURCE, 1990 to 2020
8. ANNUAL DEMAND FOR GENERATING CAPACITY IN THE POWER SECTOR, ADDITIONS AND REPLACEMENT
9. DISTRIBUTED GENERATION
10. CAPITAL EXPENDITURE
Generation, Transmission and Distribution
11. GENERATION CAPEX BY ENERGY SOURCE
12. DEFINITION OF THE POWER SECTOR EQUIPMENT MARKET
13. GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES
Coal fired plants
Gas turbine simple cycle (OCGT)
Gas turbine combined cycle (CCGT)
Oil-fired steam turbine plant
Diesel engine-generator
Wind turbine
Solar photovoltaic
Hydropower
Nuclear power
14. REGIONAL AND NATIONAL EQUIPMENT MARKETS
Generation plant, World
Generation plant, United States
Generation plant, Europe
Generation plant, France
Generation plant, Germany
Generation plant, Italy
Generation plant, Spain
Generation plant, United Kingdom
Generation plant, CIS
Generation plant, Russia
Generation plant, Asia Pacific
Generation plant, Japan
Generation plant, China
Generation plant, India
Generation plant, Southeast Asia
Generation plant, Middle East
Generation plant, Africa
Generation plant, Latin America
Generation plant, Brazil
15. SALES OF GENERATION PLANT BY REGION
The total generating equipment market
Vendors
Boilers
Steam turbines
Gas turbines
HRSG, Heat recovery steam generators
Diesel & HFO engines
Wind turbines
Hydro turbines
Solar PV modules
Solar PV inverters
FGD Flue gas desulphurisation
SCR, Selective catalytic reduction/SCNR Selective non-catalytic reduction
PM, Particulate removal; ESP, scrubbers, fabric filters/baghouses
CPP, Coal preparation plant
Fly ash handling plant
Insulated cable
Compressors
Piping
Instruments and control equipment
GSU Generator transformers
GCB Generator circuit breakers
Switchgear
Power Plant automation
16. THE VALUE CHAIN – FROM MATERIALS TO CAPEX
The value chain at 6 levels
17. PRICE TRENDS AND FACTORS DRIVING PRICES
Price Trends
PPI - Producer Price Index
Industry
Production capacity
Manufacturing input cost composition
18. N-1 STANDARD, N-2, 2N, REDUNDANCY AND REPLACEMENT
Network failure
Transformer failure
Industrial reliability
Network reliability
N-1 and the networks
Contingency planning for network failure
Electricity distribution
19. THE ENVIRONMENTAL EQUATION
20. AQCS – AIR QUALITY CONTROL SYSTEMS
GHGs, Greenhouse gases
Air pollutants
Sources of emissions
Air pollutants
Supply side measures to reduce man made emisssions
Emission types and end-of-pipe control measures
Particulate Matter
Heavy metals – lead, mercury, cadmium
The development and penetration of aqcs technology
21. CCS – CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE
The carbon cycle, climate change and greenhouse gases
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) – current status
EOR, Enhanced oil recovery.
22. ELECTRIFICATION
The impact of increased electrification on future markets
Electrical goods and aspirations: The household electrification wheel
Factors driving the increase in numbers of electrical connections
23. CURRENTS, CIRCUITS AND PHASES
Currents - AC and DC
Circuits
Overview of infrastructure
METHODOLOGY
Market sizing and bottom up forecasting
The Sanity Check and Validation
Figures
Figure 1: The global utility landscape
Figure 2: Industry uses of different energy sources in the US
Figure 3: Energy use by type of industry in the US (All types of energy)
Figure 4: % of total machine drive electricity used in manufacturing in the US
Figure 5: Machine drive electricity use as a percentage of total delivered energy use by each industry in the US
Figure 6: World generating capacity in GW, development from 1900 to 2050
Figure 7: World generating capacity in GW, development by region from 1980 to 2030
Figure 8: Installed capacity by fuel in GW, 1990 to 2020
Figure 9: Installed capacity and annual demand for generating capacity in GW, 1900 to 2050
Figure 10: Cumulative new and replacement demand for generating capacity in GW, 1900 to 2050
Figure 11: New and replacement demand for generating capacity in GW unstacked, 1900 to 2050
Figure 12: Replacement capacity as a % of total annual demand 5 year totals, 2016-2050
Figure 13: Composition of the retail cost of electricity
Figure 14: Total global capital expenditure on Generation, Transmission and Distribution, nominal $ billion 2000 to 2020
Figure 15: Comparison of expenditure on Generation, Transmission and Distribution in real ($2015) and nominal values, 2000 to 2020
Figure 16: Global capital expenditure broken by Generation, Transmission and Distribution, nominal $ billion, 2000 to 2020
Figure 17: Total capex in Generation, Transmission and distribution 2000-2010 compared with 2010-2020.
Figure 18: Investment surges 1900 to2015
Figure 19: Total Capital Expenditure on Generation, Transmission and Distribution by region in 2016
Figure 20: Capital expenditure on generation by energy source, nominal $ billion2000 to 2020,
Figure 21: Total Capital Expenditure on Generation, Transmission and Distribution by Region and Year, nominal $ billion, 2000, 2010, 2020
Figure 22: Composition of global capital expenditure Generation, Transmission and Distribution, 2015
Figure 23: Commodity price Index 1996 to 2016
Figure 24: Industrial metals prices 2007 to 2016
Figure 25: Labour compensation cost, including direct pay, social insurance expenditures, and labour-related taxes (US = 100).
Figure 26: Labour costs including wages and salaries, social insurance and labour-related taxes
Figure 27: Minimum wages in China in yuan per month 1995 to 2012
Figure 28: A high voltage substation with four transformers, three active and one redundant
Figure 29: Possible reductions in GHG emissions by 2050
Figure 30: Beijing after rain and on a day with smog
Figure 31: Sources of emissions
Figure 32: Countries responsible for emissions
Figure 33: The carbon cycle and storage
Figure 34: % of carbon emissions from heat and power generation, 2014
Figure 35: % of carbon emission from the world coal-fired fleet, 2014
Figure 36: Actual and expected operation dates for large-scale CCS projects in the pipeline, by region and lifecycle stage.
Figure 37: Technological learning rates of selected energy related technologies
Figure 38: Additions of electrified households between 2015 and 2050 by region
Figure 39: Countries with greatest population declines by 2050
Figure 40: The Household Electrification Wheel
Figure 41: Population growth % in each decade by region
Figure 42: Average household size, World, 1900 to 2050
Figure 43: World electrification - % of households with electricity, 1900-2050
Figure 44: World electrification – Number of households with and without electricity, 1900-2050
Figure 45: Share of people without electricity access for developing countries, 2008
Figure 46: Regional totals of electrified households 2010 to 2050
Figure 47: Selected major countries - % of households with electricity, 1900-2050
Figure 48: Single phase power
Figure 49: Three phase power
Figure 50: The composition of annual demand for capacity, new plus replacement
Tables
Table 1: Ownership of assets in the power sector by owner type
Table 2: The world’s electrical utility landscape
Table 3: Infrastructure of utilities
Table 4: Indian utilities’ generating capacity 1947 -2015 by fuel
Table 5: Indian captive power plant generating capacity 1947 -2015 by fuel
Table 6: Sale of diesel gensets in India by international manufacturers > 1 MW from 1990 to 2004
Table 7: Installed generating capacity in MW, 1980 to 2030, Europe
Table 8: Installed generating capacity in MW, 1980 to 2030, CIS
Table 9: Installed generating capacity in MW, 1980 to 2030, MENA
Table 10: Installed generating capacity in MW, 1980 to 2030, Sub-Saharan Africa
Table 11: Installed generating capacity in MW, 1980 to 2030, Asia Pacific
Table 12: Installed generating capacity in MW, 1980 to 2030, the Americas
Table 13: Installed generating capacity MW by fuel type 1990 to 2020, World
Table 14: Installed generating capacity MW by fuel type 1990 to 2020, Europe
Table 15: Installed generating capacity MW by fuel type 1990 to 2020, CIS
Table 16: Installed generating capacity MW by fuel type 1990 to 2020, Middle East
Table 17: Installed generating capacity MW by fuel type 1990 to 2020, North Africa
Table 18: Installed generating capacity MW by fuel type 1990 to 2020, Sub-Saharan Africa
Table 19: Installed generating capacity MW by fuel type 1990 to 2020, Asia Pacific
Table 20: Installed generating capacity MW by fuel type 1990 to 2020, LAC
Table 21: Installed generating capacityMW by fuel type 1990 to 2020, North America
Table 22: New and replacement demand for generating capacity, MW, 2016 to 2035
Table 23: Total demand for generating capacity, MW, 2016 to 2050
Table 24: New and replacement demand in 5 year segments by country in MW, 2015 to 2030, Europe
Table 25: Total new and replacement demand in 5 year segments in GW and % of replacement, 2015 to 2050, Europe
Table 26: New and replacement demand in 5 year segments by country in MW, 2015 to 2030, CIS
Table 27: Total new and replacement demand in 5 year segments in GW and % of replacement, 2015 to 2050, CIS
Table 28: New and replacement demand in 5 year segments by country in MW, 2015 to 2030, MENA
Table 29: Total new and replacement demand in 5 year segments in GW and % of replacement, 2015 to 2050, MENA
Table 30: New and replacement demand in 5 year segments by country in MW, 2015 to 2030, Sub-Saharan Africa
Table 31: Total new and replacement demand in 5 year segments in GW and % of replacement, 2015 to 2050, Sub-Saharan Africa
Table 32: New and replacement demand in 5 year segments by country in MW, 2015 to 2030, Asia Pacific
Table 33: Total new and replacement demand in 5 year segments in GW and % of replacement, 2015 to 2050, Asia Pacific
Table 34: New and replacement demand in 5 year segments by country in MW, 2015 to 2030, the Americas
Table 35: Total new and replacement demand in 5 year segments in GW and % of replacement, 2015 to 2050, Americas
Table 36: World - Generation capex by technology, nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
Table 37: USA - Generation capex by technology, nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
Table 38: Europe - Generation capex by technology, nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
Table 39: France - Generation capex by technology, nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
Table 40: Germany - Generation capex by technology, nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
Table 41: Italy - Generation capex by technology, nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
Table 42: Spain - Generation capex by technology, nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
Table 43: United Kingdom - Generation capex by technology, nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
Table 44: CIS - Generation capex by technology, nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
Table 45: Russia- Generation capex by technology, nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
Table 46: Asia Pacific - Generation capex by technology, nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
Table 47: Japan - Generation capex by technology, nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
Table 48: China - Generation capex by technology, nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
Table 49: India - Generation capex by technology, nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
Table 50: Korea, Australasia - Generation capex by technology, nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
Table 51: South East Asia - Generation capex by technology, nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
Table 52: Middle East - Generation capex by technology, nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
Table 53: Africa - Generation capex by technology, nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
Table 54: LAC - Generation capex by technology, nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
Table 55: Brazil - Generation capex by technology, nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
Table 56: Composition of generation capex over all technologies, 2000 and 2015
Table 57: Some principal cost components of generating capex
Table 58: Cost breakdown of capex in construction of a coal fired plant (equipment at installed cost)
Table 59: Cost breakdown of capex in construction of gas-fired OCGT or CCGT plant (equipment costs at installed cost)
Table 60: Cost breakdown of capex in construction of an oil-fired steam turbine plant (equipment costs at installed cost)
Table 61: Cost breakdown of capex in construction of a diesel or fuel oil reciprocating engine plant (equipment costs at installed cost)
Table 62: Cost breakdown of capex in construction of a wind turbine (equipment costs at installed cost)
Table 63: Cost breakdown of capex in construction of a solar PV plant (equipment at installed cost)
Table 64: Cost breakdown of capex in construction of a hydropower plant (equipment costs at installed cost)
Table 65: Cost breakdown of capex in construction of a nuclear power plant (equipment costs at installed cost)
Table 66: Generation equipment cost in nominal $ million, at purchase price, at installed cost and
Table 67: Ratio of sales of mechanical and electrical equipment in generation and T&D, 2000 to 2020
Table 68: Generation equipment cost at purchase price in nominal $ million, World, 2000 to 2020
Table 69: Generation equipment cost in nominal $ million, at purchase price, at installed cost and
Table 70: Generation equipment cost at purchase price in nominal $ million, United States, 2000 to 2020
Table 71: Generation equipment cost in nominal $ million, at purchase price, at installed cost and % share of capex, Europe, 2000 to 2020
Table 72: Generation equipment cost at purchase price in nominal $ million, Europe, 2000 to 2020
Table 73: Generation equipment cost in nominal $ million, at purchase price, at installed cost and
Table 74: Generation equipment cost at purchase price in nominal $ million, France, 2000 to 2020
Table 75: Generation equipment cost in nominal $ million, at purchase price, at installed cost and % share of capex, Germany, 2000 to 2020
Table 76: Generation equipment cost at purchase price in nominal $ million, Germany, 2000 to 2020
Table 77: Generation equipment cost in nominal $ million, at purchase price, at installed cost and % share of capex, Italy, 2000 to 2020
Table 78: Generation equipment cost at purchase price in nominal $ million, Italy, 2000 to 2020
Table 79: Generation equipment cost in nominal $ million, at purchase price, at installed cost and % share of capex, Spain, 2000 to 2020
Table 80: Generation equipment cost at purchase price in nominal $ million, Spain, 2000 to 2020
Table 81: Generation equipment cost in nominal $ million, at purchase price, at installed cost and % share of capex, United Kingdom, 2000 to 2020
Table 82: Generation equipment cost at purchase price in nominal $ million, United Kingdom, 2000 to 2020
Table 83: Generation equipment cost in nominal $ million, at purchase price, at installed cost and % share of capex, CIS, 2000 to 2020
Table 84: Generation equipment cost at purchase price in nominal $ million, CIS, 2000 to 2020
Table 85: Generation equipment cost in nominal $ million, at purchase price, at installed cost and % share of capex, Russia, 2000 to 2020
Table 86: Generation equipment cost at purchase price in nominal $ million, Russia, 2000 to 2020
Table 87: Generation equipment cost in nominal $ million, at purchase price, at installed cost and % share of capex, Asia Pacific, 2000 to 2020
Table 88: Generation equipment cost at purchase price in nominal $ million, Asia Pacific, 2000 to 2020
Table 89: Generation equipment cost in nominal $ million, at purchase price, at installed cost and % share of capex, Japan, 2000 to 2020
Table 90: Generation equipment cost at purchase price in nominal $ million, Japan, 2000 to 2020
Table 91: Generation equipment cost in nominal $ million, at purchase price, at installed cost and % share of capex, China, 2000 to 2020
Table 92: Generation equipment cost at purchase price in nominal $ million, China, 2000 to 2020
Table 93: Generation equipment cost in nominal $ million, at purchase price, at installed cost and % share of capex, India, 2000 to 2020
Table 94: Generation equipment cost at purchase price in nominal $ million, India, 2000 to 2020
Table 95: Generation equipment cost in nominal $ million, at purchase price, at installed cost and % share of capex, Southeast Asia, 2000 to 2020
Table 96: Generation equipment cost at purchase price in nominal $ million, Southeast Asia, 2000 to 2020
Table 97: Generation equipment cost in nominal $ million, at purchase price, at installed cost and % share of capex, Middle East, 2000 to 2020
Table 98: Generation equipment cost at purchase price in nominal $ million, Middle East, 2000 to 2020
Table 99: Generation equipment cost in nominal $ million, at purchase price, at installed cost and % share of capex, Africa, 2000 to 2020
Table 100: Generation equipment cost at purchase price in nominal $ million, Africa, 2000 to 2020
Table 101: Generation equipment cost in nominal $ million, at purchase price, at installed cost and % share of capex, Latin America, 2000 to 2020
Table 102: Generation equipment cost at purchase price in nominal $ million, Latin America, 2000 to 2020
Table 103: Generation equipment cost in nominal $ million, at purchase price, at installed cost and % share of capex, Brazil, 2000 to 2020
Table 104: Generation equipment cost at purchase price in nominal $ million, Brazil, 2000 to 2020
Table 105: Sales of generation equipment at purchase price by region and country in nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
Table 106: Market shares of generating equipment vendors, 2015
Table 107: Sales of boilers at purchase price by region and country in nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
Table 108: Leaders in industrial boiler production
Table 109: Sales of steam turbines, generators & condensers at purchase price by region and country in nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
Table 110: Market shares of steam turbine vendors, 2015
Table 111: Sales of gas turbines & generators at purchase price by region and country in nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
Table 112: Market shares of gas turbine vendors, 2015
Table 113: Sales of HRSG heat recovery steam generators at purchase price by region and country in nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
Table 114: Leaders in HRSG production
Table 115: Sales of HFO/diesel reciprocating engines at purchase price by region and country in
Table 116: Diesel engine vendors
Table 117: Sales of wind turbine at purchase price by region and country in nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
Table 118: Global market shares of wind turbine manufacturers, 2015
Table 119: Global market shares of off-shore wind turbine manufacturers, 2015
Table 120: Types of hydro turbine with applications
Table 121: Sales of hydro turbine, generator and regulators at purchase price by region and country in nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
Table 122: Global market shares of off-shore wind turbine manufacturers, 2015
Table 123: Sales of solar PV modules at purchase price by region and country in nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
Table 124: Global market ranking of top 10 solar PV manufacturers, ranked by MW shipped, 2014
Table 125: Sales of solar PV inverters at purchase price by region and country in nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
Table 126: Global market ranking of top 7 solar inverter manufacturers, ranked by value, 2015
Table 127: Sales of FGD flue gas desulphurization at purchase price by region and country in nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
Table 128: Top FGD vendors
Table 129: Sales of SCR selective catalytic reduction at purchase price by region and country in nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
Table 130: Top SCR vendors
Table 131: Sales of particulate removal (ESP, scrubbers, baghouse) at purchase price by region and country in nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
Table 132: Top PM removal vendors
Table 133: Sales of CPP coal preparation plant at purchase price by region and country in nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
Table 134: Sales of fly ash handling plant at purchase price by region and country in nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
Table 135: Top PM removal vendors
Table 136: Sales of insulated cable at purchase price by region and country in nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
Table 137: The top global cable manufacturers by industry
Table 138: Cable manufacturers global market shares by country
Table 139: Sales of compressors at purchase price by region and country in nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
Table 140: Compressor manufacturers
Table 141: Sales of piping at purchase price by region and country in nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
Table 142: Piping companies/installers market share in China
Table 143: Sales of instruments and control equipment at purchase price by region and country in nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
Table 144: Sales of GSU generator transformers at purchase price by region and country in nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
Table 145: GSU Generator transformer market shares
Table 146: Sales of GCB generator circuit breakers at purchase price by region and country in nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
Table 147: Sales of other switchgear at purchase price by region and country in nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
Table 148: GCB circuit breakers and switchegar market shares
Table 149: Sales of utility automation at purchase price by region and country in nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
Table 150: Costs and mark-up from Bill of Materials to Capex
Table 151: Prices of copper and aluminium 1960-2014
Table 152: Reductions in emissions by the main AQCS technologies
Table 153: Penetration of end-of-pipe AQCS measures
Table 154: The global coal-fired generating fleet 2015
Table 155: Levelised Cost of Electricity for New-Build Power Plants with and without CCS
Table 156: Electrification in North America - % of households with access to electricity, 1950 to 2050
Table 157: Electrification in Europe - % of households with access to electricity, 1950 to 2050
Table 158: Electrification in the CIS - % of households with access to electricity, 1950 to 2050
Table 159: Electrification in MENA - % of households with access to electricity, 1950 to 2050
Table 160: Electrification in S-S Africa - % of households with access to electricity, 1950 to 2050
Table 161: Electrification in Asia - % of households with access to electricity, 1950 to 2050
Table 162: Electrification in the Pacific - % of households with access to electricity, 1950 to 2050
Table 163: Electrification in Latin America - % of households with access to electricity, 1950 to 2050
Table 164: Products and technologies used in generating plants
Table 165: Products and technologies used in transmission
Table 166: Products and technologies used in distribution

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