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College Publishing Market Forecast 2009-2010


Attention: There is an updated edition available for this report.

College Publishing Market Forecast 2009-2010 from Simba Information is the leading and most-trusted source of market intelligence in the highly competitive $9.6 billion college market.

This all new edition is the one-stop source for understanding the business dynamics in the college instructional materials market, including the impact of changing distribution models and the inroad of digital materials. Prepared by the experts at Simba Information, College Publishing Market Forecast 2009-2010 examines the major issues affecting the state of the college instructional materials market.

Use the College Publishing Market Forecast 2009-2010 to evaluate developing market trends affecting the industry, benchmark performance among market leaders and develop realistic strategies to position your company for short- and long-term growth.

Topics include:

  • Market size by media segments, including: new and used textbooks and multimedia materials
  • The continuing rise of custom publishing and electronic media
  • The impact of emergent technologies on the development and delivery of instructional content
  • Exclusive sales statistics by discipline and publisher, as provided by PubTrack Higher Education
  • Market forces shaping sales and growth projections through 2011
  • Up-to-the-minute advancements in marketing and distribution practices
  • Market landscape changes in policy, enrollment and funding
  • Growth and demand in the community college segment
  • Trends in the adoption of distance learning programs
  • Burgeoning opportunities in the for-profit career college sector
  • Detailed profiles of the leading U.S. college publishers, textbook distributors and infrastructure software providers.

College Publishing Market Forecast 2009-2010 is an essential market intelligence tool for publishers, technology providers, editors, marketing, business development, sales and investment professionals who need to understand the business strategies currently driving the educational publishing industry.


Stamford, Conn.-Sept. 1, 2009-With strong growth in student enrollment in the U.S. college market, sales of college textbooks and other instructional materials is projected to grow 5.7% to $9.68 billion in 2009, according to the newly released College Publishing Market Forecast, 2009-2010 from media industry forecast and analysis firm Simba Information.

“Behind those numbers, some exciting trends are turning the once staid college publishing industry into a dynamic segment,” said Kathy Mickey, senior analyst/managing editor of Simba’s Education Group. “Distribution channels for instructional materials are expanding rapidly with publishers taking a more direct and active role in getting students the content and tools they need.”

One of the strongest drivers of growth in college publishing is the multimedia materials segment. New in this edition of the well received annual report from Simba is an examination of e-textbooks. “This segment is still small—accounting for an estimated 1.7% of industry sales, but if sales continue to double in the next several years, e-textbooks could reach a 10% market share quickly,” Mickey said.

College Publishing Market Forecast, 2009-2010 provides in-depth assessment of the higher education publishing industry, including the critical segments of new and used textbooks, multimedia materials and tools, as well as parsing the key markets of community colleges and for-profit career colleges. The report looks at marketing and distribution and presents strategic analyses of leading college publishers, distributors and retailers.

The report includes detailed analysis of textbook sales in the 10 leading college disciplines based on sales data collected by R.R. Bowker PubTrack Higher Education.

At a time when federal policy and funding is shining a new light on higher education, the Simba College Publishing Market Forecast provides important data for publishers, marketers, distributors and business development executives as they navigate the evolving higher education landscape.

For more information please visit www.simbainformation.com or contact Kathy Mickey at 203-325-8193 x102.

About Simba Information:

Simba Information is widely recognized as the leading authority for market intelligence in the media and publishing industry. Simba's extensive information network delivers top quality, independent perspective on the people, events and alliances shaping the media and information industry. Simba publishes newsletters and research reports that provide key decision-makers at more than 15,000 client companies around the globe with timely news, analysis, exclusive statistics and proprietary industry forecasts. For more information, please visit www.simbainformation.com.

  • Methodology
  • Executive Summary
  • Industry Size and Structure
    • Introduction
    • New Textbooks Dominate, but Share Slides
      • Table Domestic Net Sales in U.S. College Market by Segment, 2007-2009P (ranked by 2008; net sales in millions)
      • Strong Growth in Multimedia Materials
        • Table New Textbooks vs. Used Textbooks in the U.S., 2007-2009P ($ in million)
    • Demand for Used Textbooks Flattens
    • Key Media in the College Classroom
      • Table Breakdown of Key Media for Instruction in U.S. College Classrooms, 2007-2009P ($ in millions)
      • Table Share of Media Used in U.S. College Classrooms, 2009P (% share based on $9.68 billion market)
      • Table Average Textbook Price, New vs. Used* Academic Years 2003 2008
    • Average Textbook Prices Show Moderate Growth
    • Seven Publishers Control 88.9% of College Market
      • Table Simba Information's College Publisher Index, 2007-2009P (Revenue $ in millions; ranked by 2008 revenue)
      • Pearson Tops Simba's College Publisher Index in 2008
    • Cengage Learning's A&P Group Leads in Operating Performance
      • Table Simba Information's Publisher Performance Index, 2008 vs. 2007 ($ in millions; ranked by 2008 operating margin)
    • Pearson Dominated International Education Sales
      • Table Major Publishers by Non-U.S. Education Sales, 2008 ($ in millions)
      • Cengage Eyes Global Business Strategy
      • McGraw-Hill, Wiley See International Growth in 2008
    • Textbook Exports Strengthen with 19.3% Growth in 2008
    • 2009 Begins Weakly in Export Activity
      • Table Top Foreign Markets for Exports of U.S. Textbooks, 2008 vs. 2007 ($ and units in thousands; % Chg. reflects change from 2007)
      • Table Top Foreign Markets for Exports of U.S. Textbooks, Q1 2009 vs. Q1 2008 ($ and units in thousands; Chg. reflects change from Q1 2008)
    • M&A Marked by Consolidation and International Expansion
      • Cengage Learning and Others Look Globally
        • Table Simba's Higher Education Merger & Acquisition Index, January 2008-August 2009
  • Enrollment
    • Overview
      • Table Total Enrollment in Higher Education, 1992-2017P (in thousands)
    • Enrollment by Age
      • Table College Enrollment by Age, 1992-2017P (in thousands)
    • Enrollment by Gender
    • Diversity on the Campus
      • Table Total Enrollment in Higher Education by Gender, 1992-2017P (in thousands)
      • Table U.S. Enrollment Numbers by Race, 1992-2017P (Parentheses indicate percent of total enrollment; in thousands)
    • Public vs. Private Enrollment Changes
    • Full-Time vs. Part-Time Enrollment Changes
      • Table Higher Education Enrollment, Four-Year Public vs. Private, 1992-2017P (in thousands)
      • Table Higher Education Enrollment, Two-Year Public vs. Private, 1992-2017P (in thousands)
      • Table Total Higher Education Enrollment by Enrollment Status, 1992-2017P (in thousands)
    • A Degree Matters More Now
      • Table Degrees Conferred, 1992-2017P
      • Table Enrollment Ranked by State in Two-Year and Four-Year Colleges, Fall 2006
    • Where the Students Are
      • Table Public High School Graduates, 2004-2005 (states ranked by projected percentage change by 2017-2018)
  • Market Niches: Community Colleges, For-Profit Post-Secondary Schools and Distance Learning
    • Introduction
    • Community Colleges
      • Table Community Colleges at a Glance
      • Table States with Enrollment Growth at -Year Public Colleges, 2006 vs. 2005 (ranked by percentage increase)
      • Enrollment Rises
        • Table Projections in 2-Year College Enrollment, 2006-2017P (enrollment in thousands)
      • Addressing Basic Skills
      • Leading Fields for Associate Degrees
        • Table Leading Associate Degree Fields AY 2006-2007 (2- & 4-Year Institutions)
    • Post-Secondary Schools
      • Table For-Profit, Career Colleges at a Glance
      • Recession Provides Tailwind for Enrollment Growth
        • Table For-Profit Colleges, Spring Enrollment, 2009 vs. 2008 (Period ended March 31)
      • Health Fields Are Popular
      • Strongest Growth Online
      • Revenue Growth Ushers in 2009
        • Table Career College Index, Q1 Financial Results, 2009 vs. 2008 $ in thousands; period ended March 31; ranked by revenue)
    • Penetration of Distance Learning
      • Table Online Enrollment Growth, Fall 2002-2007
      • Concentrated in Undergraduate Programs
  • Funding
    • Introduction
    • Tuition Rises for 2008-2009
      • Table Average Tuition and Fee Charges (constant dollars)
      • Table Higher Education Financial Aid, 1997-1998 to 2007-2008 (in millions of constant $)
    • Aid Comes in Various Forms
    • Federal Government Addresses Affordability
      • Table Estimated Federal Aid for Post-Secondary Education, 2010E ($ in thousands)
    • Rising Debt a Concern
    • Pell Grants Key to Federal Funding
      • Table Federal Higher Education Programs, FY2008-2010P ($ in millions)
    • New Focus on Community College
    • States Face Financial Issues
      • Table Appropriations to Higher Education, FY2007-2009 ($ in thousands)
      • Table Fiscal 2010 State Budget Outlook
      • California Students Hit Hard
      • Cutting the Norm Across the States
    • Texas Bucks the Trend
  • Textbooks
    • Introduction
      • Table Growth in College Textbook Net Sales, 2000-2008 (CAGR = 5.9%; $ in billions)
    • Publishers Tout Format Variety and Price Ranges
    • Long-Term Growth in Custom Publishing
    • E-Textbook Push Is On
      • Nascent Higher Education E-Textbook Sales Bloom
      • After Good Fall in 2008, CourseSmart Expands
      • Digital Pilots Abound
      • Wiley Pilot Launched at University of Texas
        • Table Wiley/U-Texas Digital Pilot
      • Kindle DX Ignites E-Textbook Dialogue
      • Flat World Knowledge Builds Free and Open Model
    • Course Staple: Textbooks
      • Table Book Sales in College Stores, 2006-2008 (retail sales estimates; $ in millions)
    • Costs Drive Used-Book Sales
      • Table Estimated Average Used Book Rate, 2006-2008 (% equals average used-book rate per discipline; measured in units and ranked by 2008 rates; based on retail sales in college bookstores)
    • Ten Publishers Command 64.1% of New Units Sold
      • Table Leading Publishers by New Units, 2008 vs. 2007 (Units in millions; ranked by 2008 share)
    • Math Courses Accounted for the Most Textbook Sales in 2008
      • Table Top 20 Disciplines for Textbook Sales, 2008 vs. 2007 ($ in millions)
    • Most Improved: Computers/Info Systs.; Greatest Drop: Museum Studies
    • In 10 Leading Disciplines, Pearson Holds Sway as Leader
      • Table Sales Patterns, 2008 (% Change from 2007)
      • Pearson Is Best-Selling Math Publisher in 2008
        • Table Mathematics - Leading Publishers, 2008 (ranked by share of new sales; sales for academic year)
      • Pearson Also Leads in English
        • Table English - Leading Publishers, 2008 (ranked by share of new sales; sales for academic year)
        • Table Psychology - Leading Publishers, 2008 (ranked by share of new sales; sales for academic year)
      • Cengage Learning Captures Lead in Psychology
        • Table Biological Sciences - Leading Publishers, 2008 (ranked by share of new sales; sales for academic year)
      • Pearson, McGraw-Hill Lead in Biological Sciences
        • Table Education - Leading Publishers, 2008 (ranked by share of new sales; sales for academic year)
      • Pearson Captures Education's Top Spot
        • Table History - Leading Publishers, 2008 (ranked by share of new sales; sales for academic year)
      • Pearson Leads in History
        • Table Accounting - Leading Publishers, 2008 (ranked by share of new sales; sales for academic year)
      • McGraw-Hill No. 1 in Accounting
        • Table Management - Leading Publishers, 2008 (ranked by share of new sales; sales for academic year)
      • McGraw-Hill Titles Claim Lead in Management
        • Table Foreign Languages & Literature - Leading Publishers, 2008 (ranked by share of new sales; sales for academic year)
      • McGraw-Hill No. 1 in Foreign Languages
      • Pearson Leads in Chemistry
        • Table Chemistry - Leading Publishers, 2008 (ranked by share of new sales; sales for academic year)
  • Multimedia Materials
    • Introduction
      • Table The 21st Century Campus
    • Technology Market Expanding
      • Table Multimedia Materials Used in College Classrooms, 2007-2009P ($ in millions)
    • Multimedia Materials Grow 28% in 2008
    • Pearson Releases MyEducationLab
    • Cengage Learning Expands Aplia
    • New Incarnation for Homework Manager at McGraw-Hill
    • WileyPLUS Continues to Produce for Wiley
    • Students Respond to Student Response Systems
    • More Demand for Lecture Capture
  • Marketing & Distribution
    • Overview
    • What Students Pay and Where It Goes
      • Table Where the New Textbook Dollar Goes
    • College Stores Business Good
      • Table Course Materials Purchased by Location
    • Used Texts: Wanted, but Limited
      • Table Total College Store Market
    • Drivers Toward Digital Content
      • Table Contract Management of College Stores by Operator
    • Online Purchasing of Materials
    • Textbook Rental Options on the Rise
      • Table Increase in Median College Store Online Sales
  • Forecast and Conclusions
    • Overview
      • Changing Business Models
        • Table Sales Forecast of Key Instructional Materials Used in U.S. Classrooms, 2008-2012 ($ in millions)
      • Continued Growth in Higher Education Materials
  • Profiles of Leading U.S. College Publishers & Software Providers
    • Bedford, Freeman & Worth (Macmillan)
      • Table Financial Overview: Bedford, Freeman & Worth, 2007-2009P ($ in 000)
    • Blackboard
      • Table Financial Overview: Blackboard, 2007-2009P ($ in 000)
    • Cengage Learning
      • Table Financial Overview: Cengage Learning, Fiscal 2007-2009P ($ in 000)
    • Jones and Bartlett
      • Table Financial Overview: Jones & Bartlett, Fiscal 2007-2009P ($ in 000)
    • McGraw-Hill Education (The McGraw-Hill Cos. Inc.)
      • Table Financial Overview: McGraw-Hill Cos., 2007-2009Pm ($ in 000)
    • Oxford University Press
      • Table Financial Overview: Oxford University Press, Fiscal 2007-2009E ($ in 000)
    • Pearson Education
      • Table Financial Overview: Pearson PLC, 2007-2009P ($ in millions)
    • John Wiley & Sons
      • Table Financial Overview: John Wiley & Sons, Fiscal 2007-2009 ($ in 000)
    • W.W. Norton
      • Table Financial Overview: W.W. Norton, Fiscal 2007-2009E ($ in 000)
  • Profiles of Leading College Textbook Distributors and Retailers
    • Barnes & Noble Inc.
      • Table Financial Overview: Barnes & Noble Inc., 2007-2009P ($ in millions)
    • Chegg.com
      • Table Financial Overview: Chegg.com, Fiscal 2007-2009P ($ in 000)
    • Follett Corp.
      • Table Financial Overview: Follett Higher Education Group, Fiscal 2007-2009E ($ in 000)
    • Nebraska Book Co.
      • Table Financial Overview: Nebraska Book Co., Fiscal 2007-2009 ($ in 000)

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