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College Publishing Market Forecast 2008-2009


Attention: There is an updated edition available for this report.

College Publishing Market Forecast 2008-2009 is an all-new edition of Simba’s premier research report for the U.S. higher education publishing industry, and offers the most comprehensive picture available of the current climate for college publishing.

With a tech-savvy student body demanding an increasing supply of digital materials, publishers must learn to adapt or risk losing their competitive advantage. Although new and used textbooks continue to dominate the higher education instructional materials scene in 2008, their market share is sliding. The rising trend is in multimedia tools—particularly for homework assistance and assessment—and college publishers are finding that the appeal of digital tools is sparking increasing interest in e-textbooks.

College Publishing Market Forecast 2008-2009 provides insights like these to decision-makers in all facets of the higher education instructional materials industry. In addition, the report offers a complete overview of the size and structure of the market, the latest enrollment statistics, funding, marketing and more.

Specific topics include:

  • Market size by segment:
    • college textbooks
    • used college books
    • professional books
    • trade books
    • multimedia materials (coursepacks and e-media sold separate from textbooks)
    • mass market paperbacks
    • religious books
    • university press books
    • K-12 textboooks
  • Segment growth drivers
  • New textbooks vs. used textbooks
  • Top foreign markets for exports of U.S. textbooks
  • Market niches, such as community colleges, for-profit post-secondary schools, and distance learning
  • Custom publishing, coursepacks and multimedia
  • Marketing and distribution of college textbooks and instructional materials
  • Growth outlook for higher educational materials publishing through 2011

In addition, College Publishing Market Forecast 2008-2009 offers an inside look into key mergers and acquisitions, as well as Simba’s exclusive College Publisher Index, which provides revenue and market share rankings of leading higher ed instructional materials providers.

We include detailed strategic and financial profiles of companies such as Bedford, Freeman & Worth; Blackboard; Cengage Learning; Jones and Bartlett; McGraw-Hill Education; Oxford University Press; Pearson Education; John Wiley & Sons; W.W. Norton; Barnes & Noble College Bookstores; Follett Corp. and Nebraska Book Co.

College Publishing Market Forecast 2008-2009 is a vital market intelligence tool for publishers, marketers, retailers and distributors, as well as business development and investment professionals charged with developing strategies to succeed in the rapidly growing U.S. higher education materials market.


  • Methodology
  • Executive Summary
  • Industry Size and Structure
    • Introduction
      • Market Opportunities
      • Digital Advance
    • New Textbooks Dominate, but Share Slides
      • Table Domestic Net Sales in U.S. College Market by Segment, 2006-2008P (ranked by 2007
      • K-12, Religious and Multimedia Materials See Growth
    • Demand for Used Textbooks Continues to Grow
      • Table New Textbooks vs. Used Textbooks in the U.S., 2006-2008P ($ in millions)
    • Key Media in the College Classroom
      • Table Breakdown of Key Media Used for Instruction in U.S. College Classrooms ($ in
      • Table Average Textbook Price, New vs. Used* Academic Years 2003-2007
    • Average Textbook Prices Show Moderate Growth
    • Eight Publishers Control 93.9% of College Market
      • Table Simba Information's College Publisher Index, 2006-2008P (revenue $ in millions; ranked
      • Pearson Tops Simba's College Publisher Index in 2007
      • Jones and Bartlett and W.W. Norton Outpace Industry Growth
    • Wiley Leads in Operating Performance with 26.9% Margin in FY2008
      • Table Simba Information's Publisher Performance Index, 2007 vs. 2006 ($ in millions; ranked
      • Pearson Is Aggressive in Margin Targets
      • McGraw-Hill: Strongest Operating Income Improvement
      • Cengage Learning Exceeds Efficiency Goals
    • Pearson Leads the Charge into International Education Sales
      • Table Major Publishers by Non-U.S. Sales, 2007 ($ in millions)
    • Textbook Exports Flatten with 1% Growth in 2007
      • Table Top Foreign Markets for Exports of U.S. Textbooks, 2007 vs. 2006 ($ and units in
    • 2008 Begins with More Export Activity
      • Table Top Foreign Markets for Exports of U.S. Textbooks, Q1 2008 vs. 2007 ($ and units in
    • Cengage Acquisition of HM College Leads M&A Activity
      • Table Simba's Higher Education Merger & Acquisition Index, 2007-June 2008
      • Table Courses & Textbooks Cengage Will Divest
      • Private Equity Backer Moves in with Jones & Bartlett
      • Macmillan Expands Custom Publishing
      • Technology Is Attractive in M&A Market
      • Promise of More M&A Activity
  • Enrollment
    • Overview
      • Table Total Enrollment in Higher Education, 1991-2017P (in thousands)
    • Enrollment by Age
    • Enrollment by Gender
      • Table College Enrollment by Age, 1991-2016P (in thousands)
      • Table Total Enrollment in Higher Education by Gender, 1992-2017P (in thousands)
    • Diversity on the Campus
      • Table U.S. Enrollment Numbers by Race, 1991-2016P (in 000)
    • Public vs. Private Enrollment Changes
    • Full-Time vs. Part-Time Enrollment Changes
      • Table Higher Education Enrollment, Four-Year Public vs. Private, 1990-2016P (in thousands)
      • Table Total Higher Education Enrollment by Enrollment Status, 1991-2017P (in thousands)
    • A Degree Matters More Now
    • Where the Students Are
      • Table Degrees Conferred, 1992-2017P
      • Table Enrollment Ranked by State in Two-Year and Four-Year Colleges, Fall 2005
      • Table Public High School Graduates, 2004 (states ranked by projected percentage change by
  • Market Niches: Community Colleges, For-Profit Post-Secondary Schools and Distance Learning
    • Introduction
    • Community Colleges
      • Table Community Colleges at a Glance
      • Table States with Enrollment Growth at 2-Year Public Colleges, 2005 vs. 2004 (ranked by
      • Enrollment Rises
        • Table Projections in 2-Year College Enrollment, 2005-2016P (enrollment in thousands)
      • Addressing Basic Skills
      • Carnegie Learning Offers Remedial Help
      • Leading Fields for Associate Degrees
        • Table Leading Associate Degree Fields, Academic Year 2005-2006
    • Post-Secondary Schools
      • Traditional Publishers Tap Post-Secondary School Market
      • Leading For-Profits Gird Against Tighter Loan Market
        • Table Enrollment Growth at For-Profit Institutions, 1980-2006
      • Simba's Career College Index Shows Continued Enrollment Growth
        • Table Simba's Career College Spring Enrollment Index, 2008 vs. 2007 (period ended March 31)
      • 2008 Ushers in Revenue Growth, Variable Operating Performance
        • Table Career College Q1 Financials, 2008 vs. 2007 ($ in thousands; period ended March 31;
    • Penetration of Distance Learning
      • Online Enrollment Continues to Grow, but More Slowly
        • Table Online Enrollment Growth, Fall 2002 vs. 2006
      • Associate Degree Programs Show Fastest Growth
        • Table Online Growth by Degree Program, 2002 vs. 2006
      • Room for Growth
      • Online in Community Colleges
      • Pearson Forges Online Textbook Agreement in Colorado
  • Funding
    • Overview
    • Tuition Increases Up for 2007-2008
      • Table Average Tuition and Fee Charges (constant 2007 dollars)
      • Table Higher Education Financial Aid, 1996-1997 to 2006-2007 (in millions of constant $)
    • Aid Comes in Various Forms
      • Table Estimated Federal Aid for Post-Secondary Education, 2009 ($ in thousands)
    • Federal Government Addresses Affordability
      • Table Federal Higher Education Appropriations, FY2007-2009P ($ in millions)
    • Credit Crisis Prompts Action
    • Looking to the Future of Federal Support
    • States Face Financial Issues, but Continue Higher Ed Support
      • Table Appropriations to Higher Education, FY2006-2008 ($ in thousands)
      • Table Educational Revenue per FTE
    • Looking to the Future of State Support
  • Textbooks
    • Introduction
    • Format Offerings Vary
    • Cengage Learning Plans More from 4LTR Press
    • Going Green and Weighing the Kindle
    • Large Publishers Behind CourseSmart
    • Biggest Challenge: Free and Open
    • Flat World Knowledge Moves into Market
    • E-book Buzz
    • Course Staple: Textbooks
      • Table Book Sales in College Stores (retail sales estimates; $ in millions)
    • Used-Book Sales: Collegiate Fact of Life
      • Table Average Used Textbook Rate, 2005-2007 (% equals average used-book rate per
    • Ten Publishers Command 60.5% of New Units Sold
      • Table Leading Publishers by New Units, 2007 vs. 2006 (units in millions; ranked by 2007
    • Math Courses Accounted for the Most Textbook Sales in 2007
      • Table Top 20 Disciplines for Textbook Sales, 2007 vs. 2006 ($ in millions)
      • Most Improved: Religion; Greatest Decline: Agriculture & Forestry
      • Pearson Is Best-Selling Math Publisher in 2007
        • Table Unit Sales Patterns, 2007 (% change from 2006)
        • Table Mathematics - Leading Publishers, 2007 ($ in millions)
      • Pearson Also Leads in English
        • Table English - Leading Publishers, 2007 ($ in millions)
      • Cengage Learning Produces Close Second to Pearson in Psychology
        • Table Psychology - Leading Publishers, 2007 ($ in millions)
      • Pearson, McGraw-Hill Lead in Biological Sciences
        • Table Biological Sciences - Leading Publishers, 2007 ($ in millions)
      • Pearson Higher Education Captures Education's Top Spot
        • Table Education - Leading Publishers, 2007 ($ in millions)
      • Pearson Trumps in History
      • McGraw-Hill No. 1 in Foreign Languages
        • Table History - Leading Publishers, 2007 ($ in millions)
        • Table Foreign Languages and Literature - Leading Publishers, 2007 ($ in millions)
      • McGraw-Hill No. 1 in Accounting; Cengage No. 2
        • Table Accounting - Leading Publishers, 2007 ($ in millions)
      • Pearson Leads in Chemistry
        • Table Chemistry - Leading Publishers, 2007 ($ in millions)
      • McGraw-Hill Titles Claim Management Leadership
        • Table Management - Leading Publishers, 2007($ in millions)
  • Custom Publishing, Coursepacks & Multimedia
    • Introduction
    • Custom Publishing Continues to Grow
    • Hayden-McNeil Offers Turnkey Custom
      • Table Hayden-McNeil Custom, 2007 vs. 2006 ($ and units in thousands)
    • Custom Appeals to Bookstores
    • Wiley Benefits from WileyFlex and WileyPLUS
    • Custom Solutions Help Drive Pearson Growth
    • Multimedia Changing Perception of Textbook
      • Table Multimedia Materials Used in College Classrooms, 2006-2008P (Net sales in millions)
    • Homework Manager Is a Plus for McGraw-Hill
    • Tighter Digital Focus at Cengage Learning
    • Social Networking and E-Textbooks
    • Can the Kindle Spark Interest in E-Textbooks
  • Marketing & Distribution
    • Overview
    • What Students Pay and Why
      • Table Where the New Textbook Dollar Goes
    • To Bundle or Not?
    • Distributors Look to Used Texts
    • Momentum for Digital Migration
    • NACS Digital Content Subsidiary Planned
    • Publishers Offer Common Platform Through CourseSmart
    • Additional Access Models and Technologies Evolve
    • College Stores Business Good
      • Table Contract Management of College Stores by Operator
    • Online Purchasing of Texts
    • Bookstores Broaden Technology Offerings
    • Potential of Textbook Rental Programs Limited
  • Forecast and Conclusions
    • Overview
    • Landscape Pressures
    • Moderate Growth for Textbooks
      • Table Sales Forecast of Key Instructional Materials Used in U.S. Classrooms, 2007-2011P ($ in
  • Profiles of Leading U.S. College Publishers & Software Providers
    • Verlagsgruppe Georg von Holtzbrinck
      • Table Key Statistics: Bedford, Freeman & Worth
      • Table Financial Overview: Bedford, Freeman & Worth, 2006-2008P ($ in 000)
    • Blackboard
      • Table Key Statistics: Blackboard
      • Table Blackboard Clients by Segment, 2005-2007
      • Table Financial Overview: Blackboard, 2006-2008P ($ in 000)
    • Cengage Learning
      • Table Key Statistics: Cengage Learning
      • Table Financial Overview: Cengage Learning, 2006-2008P ($ in 000)
    • Jones and Bartlett
      • Table Key Statistics: Jones & Bartlett
      • Table Financial Overview: Jones & Bartlett, 2006-2008P ($ in 000)
    • McGraw-Hill Education (The McGraw-Hill Cos. Inc.)
      • Table Key Statistics: McGraw-Hill Education
      • Table Financial Overview: McGraw-Hill Cos., 2006-2008P ($ in 000)
    • Oxford University Press
      • Table Key Statistics: Oxford University Press
      • Table Financial Overview: Oxford University Press, Fiscal 2006-2008E ($ in 000)
    • Pearson Education
      • Table Key Statistics: Pearson Education
      • Table Financial Overview: Pearson plc, 2006-2008P ($ in millions)
    • John Wiley & Sons
      • Table Key Statistics: John Wiley & Sons
      • Table Financial Overview: John Wiley & Sons, Fiscal 2007-2009P ($ in 000)
    • W.W. Norton
      • Table Key Statistics: W.W. Norton
      • Table Financial Overview: W.W. Norton, Fiscal 2007-2009P ($ in 000)
  • Profiles of Leading College Textbook Distributors and Retailers
    • Barnes & Noble Inc.
      • Table Key Statistics: Barnes & Noble Inc.
      • Table Financial Overview: Barnes & Noble Inc., Fiscal 2006-2008P ($ in millions)
    • Follett Corp.
      • Table Key Statistics: Follett Corp.
      • Table Financial Overview: Follett Higher Education Group, Fiscal 2006-2008E ($ in 000)
    • Nebraska Book Co.
      • Table Key Statistics: Nebraska Book Co.
      • Table Financial Overview: Nebraska Book Co., Fiscal 2006-2008 ($ in 000)

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