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College Publishing Market Forecast 2007-2008


Attention: There is an updated edition available for this report.

An all new edition of the leading and most-trusted source of market intelligence in the highly competitive $4+ billion college publishing industry -- College Publishing Market Forecast 2007-2008.

With the impending sale of Thomson Learning, the landscape of the college textbook market is about to change dramatically. Where will you derive information about market size, untapped opportunities, and how to position your company for maximum short- and long-term growth?

Prepared by the experts at Simba Information, College Publishing Market Forecast 2007-2008 covers all the major issues affecting the state of the college publishing market.

Topics include:

  • The ongoing battle for market share between new and used books and its effect on pricing
  • The continuing rise of custom publishing, electronic media and coursepacks
  • The most recent developments in technology use in courses, from e-textbooks to clickers to iPods
  • Simba’s exclusive ranking of the leading U.S. college textbook publishers by revenue and market share
  • Top performing disciplines as well as top selling textbooks -- exclusive sales statistics provided by PubTrack Higher Ed
  • Exploding growth for community colleges, postsecondary schools and distance learning
  • Impact of international editions leaking into the domestic market
  • Trends driving higher education funding
  • Market forces shaping sales trends through 2010

In addition, College Publishing Market Forecast 2007-2008 contains detailed company profiles on the leading U.S. college publishers, textbook distributors and retailers, and infrastructure software providers.


  • Methodology
  • Executive Summary
  • Industry Size and Structure
    • Introduction
      • Table Domestic Net Sales in U.S. College Market by Segment, 2005-2007P (ranked by 2006; net sales in millions )
    • New Textbooks Dominate, but Share Slides
    • Multimedia Materials See Growth
      • Table New vs. Used Books in the U.S., 2005-2007P ($ in million; new books net sales, used books retail)
    • Religious Books Are Second-Fastest Growing Segment
    • Used Books Continue to Proliferate
      • Table Breakdown of Key Media Used for Instruction in U.S. College Classrooms ($ in millions)
    • Key Media in the Classroom
      • Table Share of Media Used in U.S. College Classrooms, 2007P (% share based on $8.72 billion market)
    • Average Textbook Prices Show Moderate Growth
      • Table Average Textbook Price Comparison, New vs. Used1, Academic Years 1999-2006
    • Pearson Tops Simba's College Publisher Index in 2006
      • Table Simba Information's College Publisher Index, 2005-2007P (Revenue $ in millions; ranked by 2006 revenue)
      • Jones and Bartlett and W.W. Norton Outpace Industry Growth
      • Operating Margins Average 15.9%
        • Table Simba Information's College Publisher Performance Index, 2006 vs. 2005 ($ in millions; ranked by 2006 operating margin)
    • College Publishing Is Fourth-Largest Segment Worldwide
      • Table Worldwide Sales of U.S. Publishers by Segment, 2005-2007P (ranked by 2005 sales)
    • Exports Increase 3% in 2006
      • Table Top Foreign Markets for Exports for U.S. Textbooks, 2006 vs. 2005 ($ and units in thousands; % Chg. reflects change from 2005)
    • Sales of Houghton Mifflin and Thomson Learning Lead M&A Activity
      • Table Merger & Acquisition Index, Q1 2007 and 2006
  • Enrollment
    • Overview
      • Table Total Enrollment in Higher Education, 1989-2015P (in 000)
    • Enrollment by Age
    • Enrollment by Gender
      • Table College Enrollment by Age, 1989-2015P (in 000)
      • Table Total Enrollment in Higher Education by Gender 1990-2015P (in 000)
    • Diversity on the Campus
      • Table U.S. Enrollment Numbers by Race, 1990-2015P (in 000)
    • Public vs. Private Enrollment Changes
    • Full-Time vs. Part-Time Enrollment Changes
    • A Degree Matters More Now
      • Table Higher Education Enrollment, Four-Year Public vs. Private, 1989-2015P (in 000)
      • Table Total Enrollment in Higher Education by Enrollment Status, 1989-2015P (in 000)
      • Table Degrees Conferred, 1991-2015P
      • Table Enrollment Ranked by State in Two-Year and Four-Year Colleges, Fall 2004
    • Where the Students Are
      • Table Public High School Graduates, 2003 (states ranked by projected percentage change by 2016)
  • Market Niches: Community Colleges, For-Profit Post-Secondary Schools and Distance Learning
    • Introduction
    • Community Colleges
      • Enrollment Rises
        • Table Community College Enrollment Growth, 2001-2005P
      • ETS Partners with Community College
      • Private Two-Year Colleges Grow Faster
        • Table Undergraduate Community College Fall Enrollment by Type of Institutions, Enrollment Status and Gender: 2001-2004
      • Largest Community Colleges Not Always the Most Digitally Savvy
        • Table Top 10 Community Colleges, Ranked by Full-Time Enrollment
        • Table Top 10 Digital Community Colleges, 2007 (Large/urban schools only-7,500 students or more)
    • Post-Secondary Schools
      • Traditional Publishers Tap Post-Secondary School Market
        • Table Enrollment Growth at For-Profit Institutions, 1980-2004
      • Leading For-Profits Post Enrollment Growth, Though It's Slower
        • Table Enrollment Patterns, 2006 vs. 2005 (Period ended Dec. 31)
      • Revenue Growth Varies Widely, Stocks Wane in 2006
        • Table For-Profit Colleges, Financial Results, 2006 vs. 2005 ($ in thousands; period ended Dec. 31; ranked by revenue growth)
        • Table Performance of Post-Secondary School Company Stocks, Jan. 3-Dec. 29, 2006
    • Penetration of Distance Learning
      • Online Enrollment Continues to Grow
      • Higher Education Investment in Online
      • McGraw-Hill Offers Turnkey Online Solutions
        • Table Distance Learning Disciplines, 2005-2006
      • Business, Social Sciences Are Most Popular Distance Offerings
  • Funding
    • Overview
    • Tuition Increases Slowing
      • Table Average Tuition and Fee Charges (constant 2006 dollars)
      • Table Higher Education Financial Aid Constant Dollars 1995-96 to 2005-06 ($ in millions)
    • Aid Comes in Various Forms
    • Federal Government Steps Up
      • Table Federal Aid for Post-Secondary Education, Estimated 2007 ($ in thousands)
      • Table Federal Higher Education Appropriations, 2006-2008P ($ in millions)
    • States Innovate to Address Needs
      • Table Appropriations to Higher Education ($ in thousands)
      • Table Educational Revenue per FTE
  • Textbooks
    • Introduction
    • Unique Dynamics of Sales and Marketing
    • Changing Nature of Textbooks
    • Bundling? Not So Much
    • Course Staple: Textbooks
      • Table Book Sales in College Stores (Retail sales estimates; $ and units in millions)
    • Used-Book Sales: The Bane of College Publishers
      • Table Average Used Book Rate, 2004-2006 (% equals average used-book rate per discipline; measured in units and ranked by average used-book rate)
      • Houghton Mifflin Uses Focus Groups
      • Thomson Learning Takes a Page from People
      • Wiley Emphasizes Images and Graphics
    • Ten Publishers Command 62% of New Units Sold
      • Table Leading Publishers by New Units, 2006 vs. 2005 (Units in millions; ranked by share in 2006)
    • Math Courses Accounted for the Most Textbook Sales in 2006
      • Table Top 20 Disciplines for Textbook Sales, 2005 vs. 2006 ($ in millions)
      • Food Science Unit Sales Improve the Most; Computing Declines
      • Pearson Is Best-Selling Math Publisher in 2006
        • Table Unit Sales Patterns 2005 vs. 2006 (% of unit sales increase or decrease from 20051)
        • Table Mathematics - Leading Publishers, 2006 ($ in millions)
      • BFW Takes the Wheel in English
        • Table English - Leading Publishers, 2006 ($ in millions)
      • Thomson Learning Heads Up Psychology Roster
        • Table Psychology - Leading Publishers, 2006 ($ in millions)
      • Pearson's Benjamin-Cummings Evolves to No. 1 in Biological Sciences
        • Table Biological Sciences - Leading Publishers, 2006 ($ in millions)
        • Table Education - Leading Publishers, 2006 ($ in millions)
      • Pearson's Allyn & Bacon, Prentice Hall Capture Education's Top Spots
        • Table History - Leading Publishers, 2006 ($ in millions)
      • Houghton Mifflin Leads in History
        • Table Accounting - Leading Publishers, 2006 ($ in millions)
      • McGraw-Hill No. 1 in Accounting; Thomson Learning No. 2
        • Table Foreign Language & Literature - Leading Publishers, 2006 ($ in millions)
      • McGraw-Hill Is Leading Foreign Language Publisher
      • Thomson Learning Leads in Chemistry
        • Table Chemistry - Leading Publishers, 2006 ($ in millions)
      • Thomson Learning Heads List in Economics
        • Table Economics - Leading Publishers, 2006 ($ in millions)
  • Custom Publishing, Coursepacks & Multimedia
    • Introduction
      • Table Multimedia Materials Used in College Classrooms ($ in millions)
    • Custom Publishing Continues to Grow
      • Table Popular Custom Publishing Options
      • Table Pearson Custom, 2004-2006 (Unit sales in actual figures; $ in millions)
      • Sophisticated Solutions
    • Coursepacks Migrating to Electronic Delivery
    • Technology Is Integrating Learning
      • Table Electronic Media Sampler
      • Students Registering for Pearson's MyLab
      • ThomsonNOW Seeing Traction
      • Biggest Sales of WileyPLUS in Science
      • Campus Technology Environment
      • Thomson Teams Up with Sakai
    • For-Profits Fuel Custom Publishing
  • Marketing & Distribution
    • Overview
    • Pricing Debate Continues
      • Table Where the New Textbook Dollar Goes
    • Distributors Look to Used Texts
    • Jump-Starting e-Texts
    • To Bundle or Not?
    • Free Materials Offer Another Choice
    • College Stores Business Good
      • Table Average Product Sales by Segment
      • Table Campus Store Ownership/Operations
      • Table Contract Management of College Stores by Operator
    • Internet Options Increase
    • Textbook Rental Costly to Set Up
  • Forecast and Conclusions
    • Overview
    • Moderate Growth for Textbooks
      • Table Sales Forecast of Key Instructional Materials Used in U.S. Classrooms, 2006-2010 ($ in millions)
  • Profiles of Leading U.S. College Publishers
    • Bedford, Freeman & Worth (Holtzbrinck) Verlagsgruppe Georg von Holtzbrinck
      • Table Key Statistics: Bedford, Freeman & Worth
      • Table Financial Overview: Bedford, Freeman & Worth, 2005-2007P ($ in 000)
    • Houghton Mifflin Co. (Houghton Mifflin Riverdeep Group PLC)
      • Table Key Statistics: Houghton Mifflin Co.
      • Table Financial Overview: Houghton Mifflin, 2005-2007P ($ in 000)
    • Jones and Bartlett
      • Table Key Statistics: Jones and Bartlett
      • Table Financial Overview: Jones and Bartlett, 2005-2007P ($ in 000)
    • McGraw-Hill Education (The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc.)
      • Table Key Statistics: McGraw-Hill Education
      • Table Financial Overview: McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005-2007P ($ in 000)
    • Oxford University Press
      • Table Key Statistics: Oxford University Press
      • Table Financial Overview: Oxford University Press, 2005-2007P ($ in 000)
    • Pearson Education (Pearson plc)
      • Table Key Statistics: Pearson Education
      • Table Financial Overview: Pearson PLC, 2005-2007P ($ in millions)
    • Thomson Corp./Thomson Learning
      • Table Key Statistics: Thomson Learning
      • Table Financial Overview: Thomson Corp., 2005-2007P ($ in 000)
    • John Wiley & Sons
      • Table Key Statistics: John Wiley & Sons
      • Table Financial Overview: John Wiley & Sons, FY2005-2007P ($ in 000; fiscal years ended April 30)
    • W.W. Norton
      • Table Key Statistics: W.W. Norton
      • Table Financial Overview: W.W. Norton, 2005-2007P ($ in 000)
  • Profiles of Leading College Textbook Distributors and Retailers
    • Barnes & Noble Inc.
      • Table Key Statistics: Barnes & Noble Inc.
      • Table Financial Overview: Barnes & Noble Inc., 2005-2007P ($ in millions)
    • eCampus.com
      • Table Key Statistics: eCampus.com
      • Table Financial Overview: eCampus.com, 2005-2007P ($ in 000)
    • Follett Corp.
      • Table Key Statistics: Follett Corp.
      • Table Financial Overview: Follett Higher Education Group, 2005-2007E ($ in 000)
    • Nebraska Book Co.
      • Table Key Statistics: Nebraska Book Co.
      • Table Financial Overview: Nebraska Book Co., 2005-2007E ($ in 000)
  • Profiles of Leading Infrastructure Software Providers
    • Blackboard
      • Table Key Statistics: Blackboard
      • Table Blackboard Clients by Segment (2004-2006)
      • Table Financial Overview: Blackboard, 2005-2007P ($ in 000)
    • eCollege
      • Table Key Statistics: eCollege
      • Table Financial Overview: eCollege, 2005-2007P ($ in 000)

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