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Children's Publishing Market Forecast 2010


Attention: There is an updated edition available for this report.

Now in its fourth edition, Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2010 offers an accurate and objective perspective on where the market for children’s books is headed in 2010, as well as analysis of market opportunities and pitfalls. How are publishers battling challenges such as an overall decline in reading, returns of unsold stock from retailers, and the intensifying battle for shelf space?

The overwhelming successes of children’s book series in recent years such as Harry Potter, Captain Underpants and Stephenie Meyer’s Twilight have sent publishers scrambling to uncover the next multi-title blockbuster craze. In addition, bestselling individual titles of rapidly growing genres like graphic novels have illuminated the children’s book market as a lucrative space for publishers, editors, marketers, distributors and retailers in the trade book industry. What’s more, the nuances of children’s books compared to “young adult” titles needs to be better understood by everyone in the industry value chain.

Armed with an archive of trade book data that goes back more than 30 years, Simba’s team of seasoned trade book analysts examines the market for children’s books segment by segment, from youngsters to tweens to teens. In addition, Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2010 provides high-quality, unbiased market intelligence on the publishing houses, and the entire retail landscape, from independent bookstores to online outlets to big box stores.

Gain access to exclusive statistics and analysis such as:

  • An in-depth look at bestselling children’s books drawn from the USA Today, Publishers Weekly and New York Times lists, with breakdowns of top-performing titles, authors, imprints and a comprehensive category ranking of which books are selling and which are not.
  • Expanded analysis of the most vital facet of children’s publishing: series books.
  • Results from Simba’s surveys of independent retailers across the country rating different books and genres; as well as info on buyer profiles and behaviors.
  • Exclusive five-year category trends for 15 major juvenile categories.

Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2010 includes detailed strategic and financial profiles of companies such as Candlewick Press, Disney Publishing Worldwide, Hachette Book Group, HarperCollins, Holtzbrinck, Houghton Mifflin, Penguin Group, Random House, Scholastic and Simon & Schuster.

This report is a critical tool in evaluating growth potential, understanding trends affecting the industry, sizing up the competition, reviewing potential partner or acquisition profiles, examining market share rankings of leading publishers, benchmarking performance, and planning short- and long-term growth strategies.

Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2010 is essential for publishing executives, M&A advisors, market analysts, and industry consultants who need to understand the business strategies driving the children’s trade book publishing industry today.


Stamford, CT-Oct. 5, 2009- Simba Information, a media research firm which recently published Trade E-Book Publishing 2009 and Trends in Trade Book Retailing, has released the latest edition of the annual report Children’s Publishing Market Forecast. The report projects the children’s and young adult book market to decline again in 2010, but at a less dramatic pace compared to 2009.

“The breadth of titles offered, coupled with the new tools publishers, authors and retailers are using to reach readers is working in the industry’s favor,” said Michael Norris, senior analyst of Simba Information’s Trade Books Group. “But publishers are still slow to realize what a hard sell engaged reading can be, especially when consumers have a growing list of free entertainment options.”

Those challenges aside, the report does present the current state of the segment, beginning with the growing strength of the fantasy category which hit No. 1 in Simba’s analysis (up from No. 3 as shown in last year’s report). Books from Stephenie Meyer, P.C. Cast and other authors continue to occupy bestseller lists, but the report wonders what will fill the ‘vampire vacuum’ once that trend finally runs its course.

New to this report is an e-book discussion, including fully updated data from Trade E-Book Publishing 2009 detailing the extent children’s titles have penetrated the bestseller lists of Sony and Amazon over a 12-month period. Additional research provided in the report indicates approximately one in five adults in the U.S. will buy at least one children’s book in 2009; a relatively stable figure from previous studies.

The report again reminds publishers about the value of multiple, healthy retailers selling their products and warns about the growing influence of non-bookstore entities: “If companies like Wal-Mart, Target or even Amazon suddenly decide to cut back on what they stock or pull some other kind of power play, publishers may find they have little negotiating heft with them if bookstores don’t stay healthy,” said Norris.

The report expands on its demographic data on children’s book buyers and provides a multi-year overview of the top imprints, authors and categories in the segment, as well as an age analysis.

For more information visit www.simbainformation.com or contact Warren Pawlowski at 203-325-8193 x114.

About Simba Information:

Simba Information is widely recognized as the leading authority for market intelligence in the media and publishing industry. Simba's extensive information network delivers top quality, independent perspective on the people, events and alliances shaping the media and information industry. Simba provides consulting and reports that offer key decision-makers at more than 15,000 client companies around the globe with timely analysis, exclusive statistics and proprietary industry forecasts. For more information, please visit www.simbainformation.com.

  • Methodology
  • Executive Summary
  • Overview of the U.S. Children’s Book Market and Buyer Demographics
    • Table Who Is Buying Most of the Children’s/YA Titles in Your Store?
    • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Adults Who Have Purchased Children’s Books
    • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults) Buyer Overview – Spring 2007/Winter 2009
    • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults) with No Children in Household vs. One or More
    • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults) with One or More Children in Household
    • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults) Buying Books as Gifts
    • Table Describe the Gender Mix of Children’s/YA Book Buyers at Your Store
  • Trends in Children’s Book Publishing
    • Table Growth in Juvenile Trade vs. Adult Trade
    • Table Bookstores Compare the First-Half Performances of Adult Trade and Juvenile, 2009 vs. 2008
    • Table Percentage of Children Who Read Almost Every Day for Fun
    • Table Frequency with Which Children Read Books for Fun, by Age
    • Table Frequency with Which Children Read Books for Fun
    • Table Percentage of Children Who Read a Book the Previous Day
    • Table Percentage of Time Spent Reading While Using Other Media
    • Table Growth of Series in Title Output as a Percentage of Total Books Published, 2004-2009
    • Table NYT/USA Today Children’s Bestsellers, July 2007–June 2008
    • Table NYT/USA Today Children’s Bestsellers, July 2008–June 2009
    • Table Scholastic Revenue, FY2000—2008
    • Table Average Bestselling Titles per Author
    • Table What Format of Children’s/YA Has Been a Particularly Strong Performer in the First Half of 2009 vs. 2008?
    • Table What Format of Children’s/YA Has Been a Particularly Weak Performer in the First Half of 2009 vs. 2008?
    • Table How Would You Rate the Following Formats of Children’s Books in Terms of How They Sell?
    • Table Top 20 Books to Movies, 2002-2008
    • Table Children’s Titles on Weekly Bestseller Lists (NYT, USA Today)
    • Table When Looking at Children’s and Young Adult Titles Separately, How Would You Say Your Business Is Trending?
    • Table What Age Range Are Your Most Successful Children’s/YA Titles Found?
  • Leading Authors, Books and Imprints
    • Table No. of New Children’s/YA Titles Appearing on NYT & USA Today Bestseller Lists, July 2006–June 2009
    • Table Top 20 New York Times Series, July 2008–June 2009
    • Table Top 20 New York Times Series Authors, July 2008–June 2009
    • Table Top New York Times Series Imprints, July 2008–June 2009
    • Table Top 20 USA Today Bestsellers, July 2008–June 2009
    • Table Top 20 USA Today Authors, July 2008–June 2009
    • Table Top 20 USA Today Imprints, July 2008–June 2009
    • Table Top 20 Authors, July 2008–June 2009
    • Table Top 20 Authors, July 2007–June 2008
    • Table Top 20 Imprints, July 2008–June 2009
    • Table Leading Children’s Book Publishers, Two-Year Comparison July 2007–June 2009
    • Table Comparison of Publishers, July 2008–June 2009
  • Market Sizing and Forecasts
    • Table Harry Potter-Only Revenue, Scholastic
    • Table Revenue Growth, Children’s Trade Book Market, 2007–2011P
    • Table Leading Children’s Publishers, 2007–2011P
    • Table AAP Results: Children’s/YA Category Net Sales
    • Table AAP Results: Children’s/YA Category Returns
  • Category Trends
    • Table Leading Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2007–June 2008
    • Table Leading Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2008–June 2009
    • Table Leading USA Today Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2008–June 2009
    • Table New Children’s/YA Titles vs. All New Titles Released, 2004-2008
    • Table Select Category Ratings, Six-Year Overview
    • Table Action & Adventure Bestseller Performance
    • Table Vital Statistics – Action & Adventure
    • Table Animals Bestseller Performance
    • Table Vital Statistics – Animals
    • Table Family & Relationships Bestseller Performance
    • Table Vital Statistics – Family & Relationships
    • Table Fantasy Bestseller Performance
    • Table Vital Statistics – Fantasy
    • Table Graphic Novel Bestseller Performance
    • Table Vital Statistics – Graphic Novel
    • Table History Bestseller Performance
    • Table Vital Statistics – History
    • Table Horror Bestseller Performance
    • Table Vital Statistics – Horror
    • Table Horror & Ghost Bestseller Performance
    • Table Vital Statistics – Horror & Ghost
    • Table Humor Bestseller Performance
    • Table Vital Statistics – Humor
    • Table People & Places Bestseller Performance
    • Table Vital Statistics – People & Places
    • Table Religion Bestseller Performance
    • Table Vital Statistics – Religion
    • Table Schools & Education Bestseller Performance
    • Table Vital Statistics – Schools & Education
    • Table Science Fiction Bestseller Performance
    • Table Vital Statistics – Science Fiction
    • Table Social Issues Bestseller Performance
    • Table Vital Statistics – Social Issues
    • Table Social Science Bestseller Performance
    • Table Vital Statistics – Social Science
    • Table Total Juvenile Hardcover Titles Published, 2003-2008
    • Table Total Juvenile Softcover Titles Published, 2003-2008
    • Table Class Share of E-Book Bestsellers, 2008-2009
  • Distribution and Retail Sales
    • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Sales Channel Trends
    • Table Number of Physical Stores, Big Three vs. Big Box
    • Table What % of Your Business Is Comprised of Children’s/YA Sales?
    • Table What % of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Buyers Bought Another Book at the Same Time?
    • Table How Effective Are the Following Children’s/YA Promotional Efforts?
    • Table Bestselling Children’s Books at Select Retail Store Web Sites, 2009
    • Table Revenue Growth, Leading Bookstore Chains, Fiscal 2004-2008
    • Table Growth in Superstore Sales, Major Retail Chains, 2004-2008
    • Table Big Three Bookstore Chains Operating Performance, 2004-2008
    • Table Number of Superstore Outlets, 2003-2008
    • Table Revenue of Leading Online Booksellers, 2004-2008
    • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Channel by Type of Book Buyer
  • Forecasts and Conclusions
    • Table Things Parents Have Done in Relation to Child’s Reading Habits
    • Table Revenue Growth, Children’s Trade Book Market, 2006–2010P
  • Profiles of Leading Children’s Book Publishers
    • Table Consolidated Bestseller Data: Candlewick Press
    • Table Publisher Snapshot: Candlewick
    • Table Candlewick Bestseller Performance, July 2008–June 2009
    • Table Consolidated Bestseller Data: Disney Publishing Worldwide
    • Table Publisher Snapshot: Disney Publishing Worldwide
    • Table Disney Publishing Worldwide/Hyperion Books for Children Bestseller Performance, July 2008–June 2009
    • Table Consolidated Bestseller Data: Hachette Book Group
    • Table Publisher Snapshot: Hachette Book Group
    • Table Hachette Book Group Bestseller Performance, July 2008–June 2009
    • Table Consolidated Bestseller Data: HarperCollins Publishers
    • Table Publisher Snapshot: HarperCollins Children’s Books
    • Table HarperCollins Children’s Books Performance, July 2008–June 2009
    • Table Consolidated Bestseller Data: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
    • Table Publisher Snapshot: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Trade & Reference
    • Table Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Bestseller Performance,
    • Table Consolidated Bestseller Data: Macmillan
    • Table Publisher Snapshot: Macmillan
    • Table Macmillan Bestseller Performance, July 2008–June 2009
    • Table Consolidated Bestseller Data: Penguin Group (USA)
    • Table Publisher Snapshot: Penguin Group (USA)
    • Table Penguin Group USA Bestseller Performance, July 2008–June 2009
    • Table Consolidated Bestseller Data: Random House
    • Table Publisher Snapshot: Random House
    • Table Random House Children’s Books Bestseller Performance, July 2008–June 2009
    • Table Consolidated Bestseller Data: Scholastic
    • Table Publisher Snapshot: Scholastic
    • Table Scholastic Bestseller Performance, July 2008–June 2009
    • Table Consolidated Bestseller Data: Simon & Schuster
    • Table Publisher Snapshot: Simon & Schuster
    • Table Simon & Schuster Children’s Books Bestseller Performance, July 2008 – June 2009

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