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Children's Publishing Market Forecast 2009


Attention: There is an updated edition available for this report.

Now in its third edition, Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2009 delivers a significantly deeper and expanded analysis than the first and second editions.

The overwhelming successes of children’s book series in recent years such as Harry Potter, Captain Underpants and Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events have sent publishers scrambling to uncover the next multi-title blockbuster craze. In addition, bestselling individual titles of rapidly growing genres like graphic novels have illuminated the children’s book market as a lucrative space for publishers, editors, marketers, distributors and retailers in the trade book industry.

Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2009 offers an accurate and objective perspective on where the market for children’s books is headed in 2009, as well as analysis of market opportunities and pitfalls. How are publishers battling challenges such as an overall decline in reading, returns of unsold stock from retailers, and the intensifying battle for shelf space?

Armed with an archive of trade book data that goes back more than 30 years, Simba’s team of seasoned trade book analysts examines the market for children’s books segment by segment, from youngsters to tweens to teens. In addition, Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2009 provides high-quality, unbiased market intelligence on the publishing houses, and the entire retail landscape, from independent bookstores to online outlets to big box stores.

Gain access to exclusive statistics and analysis such as:

  • An in-depth look at bestselling children’s books drawn from the USA Today, Publishers Weekly and New York Times lists, with breakdowns of top-performing authors and imprints and a comprehensive category ranking of which books are selling and which are not in 2008.

  • Six-year historical analysis of children’s bestseller lists from the New York Times, with weeks per title average for dozens.

  • Expanded analysis of the most vital facet of children’s publishing: series books.

  • Results from Simba’s surveys of independent retailers across the country rating different books and genres; as well as info on buyer profiles and behaviors.

Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2009 includes detailed strategic and financial profiles of companies such as Candlewick Press, Disney Publishing Worldwide, Hachette Book Group, HarperCollins, Holtzbrinck, Houghton Mifflin, Penguin Group, Random House, Scholastic and Simon & Schuster.

This report is a critical tool in evaluating growth potential, understanding trends affecting the industry, sizing up the competition, reviewing potential partner or acquisition profiles, examining market share rankings of leading publishers, benchmarking performance, and planning short- and long-term growth strategies.

Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2009 is essential for publishing executives, M&A advisors, market analysts, and industry consultants who need to understand the business strategies driving the children’s trade book publishing industry today.


Methodology
Executive Summary
Chapter 1: Overview of the U.S. Children’s Book Market and Buyer Demographics

  • Introduction
  • Who Are the Buyers?
  • Girls Are Still Reading More Than Boys

  • Table 1.1: Who Is Buying Most of the Children’s/YA Titles in Your Store?
  • Table 1.2: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults) with No Children in Household vs. One or More
  • Table 1.3: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults) with One or More Children in Household
  • Table 1.4: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults) Buying Books as Gifts
  • Table 1.5: Describe the Gender Mix of Children’s/YA Book Buyers at Your Store

Chapter 2: Trends in Children’s Book Publishing

  • Introduction
    • Growth in Children’s/YA Business Outpacing Adult Trade
    • The Role of the Internet Still Evolving
  • Children and Young Adults Are Reading Less
  • Series Keep Rising
  • Series Case Study: Harry Potter
  • Fewer Authors Responsible for More Books
  • Trade Paperback Gaining Favor
  • Motion Picture Tie-Ins
  • Retailers and Publishers’ Relationships and Influence Changing
  • Teen Book Market Growth Outpacing Young Children’s

  • Table 2.1: Growth of Juvenile Trade vs. Adult Trade
  • Table 2.2: Bookstores Compare the First-Half Performances of Adult Trade and Juvenile, 2008 vs. 2007
  • Table 2.3: Percentage of Children Who Read Almost Every Day for Fun
  • Table 2.4: Percentage of Children Who Read a Book the Previous Day
  • Table 2.5: Percentage of Time Spent Reading While Using Other Media
  • Table 2.6: Growth of Series in Title Output as a Percentage of Total Books Published, 2004-2009P
  • Table 2.7: NYT/USA Today Children’s Bestsellers, July 2007-June 2008
  • Table 2.8: Scholastic Revenue, FY2000-FY2007
  • Table 2.9: Average Bestselling Titles per Author
  • Table 2.10: What Format of Children’s/YA Has Been a Particularly Strong/Weak Performer So Far in 2008?
  • Table 2.11: How Would You Rate the Following Formats of Children’s Books in Terms of How They Sell?
  • Table 2.12: Top 20 Books to Movies, 2002-2007
  • Table 2.13: New York Times Performance of Louis Sachar’s Holes, 2001-2005
  • Table 2.14: Children’s Titles on Weekly Bestseller Lists
  • Table 2.15: When Looking at Children’s and Young Adult Titles Separately, How Would You Say Your Business Is Trending?

Chapter 3: Leading Authors, Books and Imprints

  • Introduction
  • New York Times Series Bestsellers
  • USA Today Bestsellers
    • Bestselling Books
    • Bestselling Authors
    • Leading Imprints
  • Composite Analysis of USA Today and New York Times Lists
    • Bestselling Books
    • Bestselling Authors
    • Leading Imprints
  • Comparing Parent Publishers: Total Bestsellers and Weeks per Title

  • Table 3.1: No. of New Children’s/YA Titles Appearing on NYT & USA Today Bestseller Lists, July 2006-June 2008
  • Table 3.2: Top 20 New York Times Series, July 2007-June 2008
  • Table 3.3: Top 20 New York Times Series Authors, July 2007-June 2008
  • Table 3.4: Top New York Times Series Imprints, July 2007-June 2008
  • Table 3.5: Top 20 USA Today Bestsellers, July 2007-June 2008
  • Table 3.6: Top 20 USA Today Authors, July 2007-June 2008
  • Table 3.7: Top 20 USA Today Imprints, July 2007-June 2008
  • Table 3.8: Top 20 Authors, July 2007-June 2008
  • Table 3.9: Top 20 Authors, July 2006-June 2007
  • Table 3.10: Top 20 Imprints, July 2007-June 2008
  • Table 3.11: Leading Children’s Book Publishers, Two-Year Comparison, July 2006-June 2008
  • Table 3.12: Bestseller Comparison by Publisher, 2007

Chapter 4: Market Sizing and Forecasts

  • Introduction
  • Leading Children’s Publishers
    • Candlewick Press
    • Disney Publishing Worldwide
    • Hachette/Little, Brown Books for Young Readers
    • HarperCollins
    • Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
    • Macmillan
    • Penguin Group (USA)
    • Random House
    • Scholastic
    • Simon & Schuster
  • Revenue Trends
  • Valuation Trends
  • Size of the Children’s Publishing Market
  • Leading Children’s Publishers by Revenue
  • First-Half Comparisons, 2008 vs. 2007
  • Forecast for Balance of 2008 and Early 2009

  • Table 4.1: Harry Potter-Only Revenue, Scholastic
  • Table 4.2: Revenue Growth, Children’s Trade Book Market, 2006-2010P
  • Table 4.3: Leading Children’s Publishers by Estimated Revenue, 2006-2010P
  • Table 4.4: AAP Results: Children’s/YA Category Net Sales
  • Table 4.5: AAP Results: Children’s/YA Category Returns

Chapter 5: Category Trends

  • Introduction
  • The Top Categories
  • USA Today Bestseller Data
  • Children’s Titles vs. All Titles Released
  • Children’s/YA Category Analysis
  • Action & Adventure
  • Animals
  • Family & Relationships
  • Fantasy
  • Graphic Novel
  • History
  • Horror
  • Horror & Ghost
  • Humor
  • People & Places
  • Religion
  • Schools & Education
  • Science Fiction
  • Social Issues
  • Social Science
  • Format Trends

  • Table 5.1: Leading Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2006-June 2007
  • Table 5.2: Leading Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2007-June 2008
  • Table 5.3: Leading USA Today Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2007-June 2008
  • Table 5.4: New Children’s/YA Titles vs. All New Titles Released, 2003-2007
  • Table 5.5: Select Category Ratings, 5-Year Overview
  • Table 5.6: Action & Adventure 5-Year Bestseller Performance
  • Table 5.7: New Children’s/YA Action & Adventure Titles vs. All Juvenile Titles
  • Table 5.8: Animals 5-Year Bestseller Performance
  • Table 5.9: New Children’s/YA Animal Titles vs. All Juvenile Titles
  • Table 5.10: Family & Relationships 5-Year Bestseller Performance
  • Table 5.11: New Children’s/YA Family & Relationships Titles vs. All Juvenile Titles
  • Table 5.12: Fantasy 5-Year Bestseller Performance
  • Table 5.13: New Children’s/YA Fantasy Titles vs. All Juvenile Titles
  • Table 5.14: Graphic Novel 5-Year Bestseller Performance
  • Table 5.15: New Children’s/YA Graphic Novel Titles vs. All Juvenile Titles
  • Table 5.16: History 5-Year Bestseller Performance
  • Table 5.17: New Children’s/YA History Titles vs. All Juvenile Titles
  • Table 5.18: Horror 5-Year Bestseller Performance
  • Table 5.19: New Children’s/YA Horror Titles vs. All Juvenile Titles
  • Table 5.20: Horror & Ghost 5-Year Bestseller Performance
  • Table 5.21: New Children’s/YA Horror & Ghost Titles vs. All Juvenile Titles
  • Table 5.22: Humor 5-Year Bestseller Performance
  • Table 5.23: New Children’s/YA Humor Titles vs. All Juvenile Titles
  • Table 5.24: People & Places 5-Year Bestseller Performance
  • Table 5.25: New Children’s/YA People & Places Titles vs. All Juvenile Titles
  • Table 5.26: Religion 5-Year Bestseller Performance
  • Table 5.27: New Children’s/YA Religion Titles vs. All Juvenile Titles
  • Table 5.28: Schools & Education 5-Year Bestseller Performance
  • Table 5.29: New Children’s/YA Schools & Education Titles vs. All Juvenile Titles
  • Table 5:30: Science Fiction 5-Year Bestseller Performance
  • Table 5.31: New Children’s/YA Science Fiction Titles vs. All Juvenile Titles
  • Table 5.32: Social Issues 5-Year Bestseller Performance
  • Table 5.33: New Children’s/YA Social Issues Titles vs. All Juvenile Titles
  • Table 5.34: Social Science 5-Year Bestseller Performance
  • Table 5.35: New Children’s/YA Social Science Titles vs. All Juvenile Titles
  • Table 5.36: Total Juvenile Hardcover Titles Published, 2003-2007
  • Table 5.37: Total Juvenile Softcover Titles Published, 2003-2007

Chapter 6: Distribution and Retail Sales

  • Introduction
  • Where Books Are Being Purchased
  • Children’s/YA Through the Lens of Bookstores
  • Mass Merchandisers and Children’s Book Retailing
  • Big Three Chains’ Dim Outlook for 2008
    • Barnes & Noble
    • Borders Group
    • Books-A-Million
  • Profit Margins at the Big Three Chains
  • Physical Store Locations
  • New Retail Book Sales Outlets Continue to Emerge
  • Online Bookselling
  • Book Clubs, Fairs and Direct-to-Consumer Sales

  • Table 6.1: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Sales Channel Trends
  • Table 6.2: Number of Physical Stores, Big Three vs. Big Box
  • Table 6.3: What % of Your Business Is Comprised of Children’s/YA Sales
  • Table 6.4: What % of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Buyers Bought Another Book at the Same Time?
  • Table 6.5: Is Your Store Planning a Midnight Party or Some Other Special Event when Breaking Dawn Is Released?
  • Table 6.6: What Age Range Are Your Most Successful Children’s/YA Titles Found?
  • Table 6.7: How Effective Are the Following Children’s/YA Promotional Efforts?
  • Table 6.8: Bestselling Children’s Books at Select Retail Store Web Sites, 2008
  • Table 6.9: Revenue Growth, Leading Bookstore Chains, 2004-2007
  • Table 6.10: Growth in Superstore Sales, Major Retail Chains, 2004-2007
  • Table 6.11: Big Three Bookstore Chains Operating Performance, 2003-2007
  • Table 6.12: Number of Superstore Outlets, 2003-2007
  • Table 6.13: Revenue of Leading Online Booksellers, 2004-2007

Chapter 7: Forecasts and Conclusions

  • Conclusions
  • Other Recommendations

  • Table 7.1: Revenue Growth, Children’s Trade Book Market, 2006-2010P
  • Table 7.2: Things Parents Have Done in Relation to Their Child’s Reading Habits

Profiles of Leading Children’s Book Publishers

  • Candlewick Press
  • Disney Publishing Worldwide
  • Hachette Book Group
  • HarperCollins
  • Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
  • Macmillan
  • Penguin Group (USA)
  • Random House
  • Scholastic
  • Simon & Schuster

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