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Children's Publishing Market Forecast 2008


Attention: There is an updated edition available for this report.

With the race on to find the next blockbuster, tie-in or bestselling series in the lucrative children’s book market, Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2008 is an essential tool for publishers, editors, marketers, distributors and retailers in the trade book industry.

This report provides an exclusive, inside view of the market for children’s books, along with Simba’s trademark analysis of market opportunities and pitfalls. It offers high-quality, unbiased market intelligence on publishing houses, and the entire retail landscape, from independent book stores to online outlets to Big Box stores.

Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2008 contains statistics and analysis found nowhere else:

  • Six-year historical analysis of children’s bestseller lists from the New York Times, with weeks per title average for dozens.
  • Expanded analysis of the most vital facet of children’s publishing: series books. Simba’s series case study of Harry Potter has been expanded to include Deathly Hallows data and contains eight years of revenue data from the “Harry Potter” series.
  • Exclusive analysis of the four most recent quarters of children’s book bestsellers drawn from USA Today, Publishers Weekly and New York Times lists with breakdowns of top-performing authors and imprints with a comprehensive category ranking of what’s selling and what’s not in children’s books.
  • Results from Simba’s surveys of independent retailers across the country rating different books and genres; as well as info on buyer profiles and behaviors.

The report can be used to evaluate growth potential, understand trends affecting the industry, size the competition, review potential partner or acquisition profiles, examine revenue rankings and market forecasts, benchmark performance, and plan short- and long-term growth strategies.

Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2008 is an essential tool for publishing executives, M&A advisors, market analysts, and industry consultants who need to understand the business strategies driving the children’s trade book publishing industry.


  • Methodology
  • Executive Summary
  • Overview of the U.S. Children's Book Market
    • Introduction
  • Trends in Children's Book Publishing
    • Introduction
    • The Paradigm Shift of Author Promotion
    • The Rise of Children's Series
      • Table Growth of Series in Title Output as a Percentage of Total Books Published, 2003-2008
      • Table NYT/USA Today Children's Bestsellers (July 2006 - June 2007)
    • Series Case Study: Harry Potter
      • Table Scholastic Revenue, FY2000 - FY2007 ($ in millions of U.S. dollars)
      • Table Harry Potter-Only Revenue, Scholastic (in millions, U.S. $)
    • Fantasy Still the Top Category
      • Table Leading Children's Book Categories (by No. of Bestselling Titles) July 2006 - June 2007
    • Biggest Publishers, Biggest Categories
      • Table Top 20 Children's Books (July 2006 - June 2007)
      • Table Leading Children's Book Publishers, July 2006 - June 2007 (by No. of Bestselling Titles)
    • Motion Picture Tie-Ins
      • Table Leading Children's Book Publishers (by No. of Bestselling Titles) July 2005 - June 2006
      • Table New York Times Bestsellers Supported by Movie Tie-Ins 2002-2006
      • Table New York Times Performance of Louis Sachar's Holes, 2001-2005 (Number of weeks on list)
    • The Volatility of Licensed Publishing
    • Celebrity Author Activity Still 98% Attention, 2% Sales
    • Teen Market Still Hot
  • New York Times Bestseller Data
    • Introduction
      • Table Leading Publishers, New York Times Bestseller Data, 2002-2006 (No. of titles/No. of weeks)
      • Table Weeks per Title Average of Leading Publishers on New York Times Children's Bestseller Lists
      • Table New York Times Bestselling Children's Book Publishers by Weeks per Title Average, 2005
      • Table New York Times Bestselling Children's Book Publishers by Weeks per Title Average, 2006
      • Table New York Times Children's Bestseller List Publishers, 2001-2006 (excluding series books change in 2004)
    • The Addition of the Series Books List
      • Table Leading New York Times Bestselling Children's Book Publishers, 2006 vs. 2005
    • 2006 New York Times Performance: Children's Books
      • Table New York Times No. 1 Children's Paperback Bestsellers by Longevity, 2006
      • Table New York Times No. 1 Children's Chapter Bestsellers by Longevity, 2006
      • Table New York Times No. 1 Children's Picture Bestsellers by Longevity, 2006
      • Table New York Times Bestselling Children's Book Publishers, by Titles and Weeks, 2006
  • Market Sizing and Forecasts
    • Introduction
    • Revenue Trends
    • Valuation Trends
    • Leading Children's Publishers
      • Candlewick
      • Disney Publishing Worldwide
      • Hachette/Little, Brown BFYR
      • HarperCollins
      • Holtzbrinck
      • Houghton Mifflin/Harcourt
      • Penguin Group (USA)
      • Random House
      • Scholastic
      • Simon & Schuster
    • Size of the Children's Publishing Market
      • Table Revenue Growth, Children's Trade Book Market, 2005-2009P (in billions)
    • Leading Children's Publishers by Revenue
      • Table Leading Children's Publishers by Revenue, 2005-2009P
    • Leading Children's Publishers by Number of Titles Published
    • Leading Young Adult Publishers by Number of Titles Published
      • Table Market Share by Number of Juvenile Titles Published, 2002-2007*
      • Table Number of Juvenile Titles Published, Top 10 Publishers, 2002-2007*
    • Leading Juvenile Publishers by Number of Juvenile Fiction Books
      • Table Market Share by Number of YA Titles Published, 2002-2007*
    • Leading Publishers by Number of Juvenile/Young Adult Graphic Novels
      • Table Number of YA Titles Published, Top 10 Publishers, 2002-2007*
      • Table Number of Juvenile Fiction Titles Published, Top 10 Publishers, 2002-2007*
      • Table Market Share of Juvenile Fiction by Titles Published, 2002-2007*
      • Table Market Share of Juvenile Graphic Novels by Titles Published, 2002-2007*
      • Table Number of Juvenile Graphic Novels Published, Top 10 Publishers, 2002-2007*
      • Table Market Share of YA Graphic Novels by Titles Published, 2002-2007*
      • Table Number of YA Graphic Novels Published, by Top 10 Publishers, 2002-2007*
  • Title Output Trends
    • Introduction
    • Children's Titles vs. All Titles Released
      • Table New Children's Titles and Young Adult Titles vs. All New Titles Released, 2002-2006
    • Graphic Novels
      • Table Total Juvenile Graphic Novels Published, 2002-2007*
      • Table Total Graphic Novels Published for Young Adults, 2002-2007*
    • Religious Children's/YA Books
      • Table Total Juvenile Religious Titles Published, 2002-2007*
      • Table Total YA Religious Titles Published, 2002-2007*
    • Fantasy Books
      • Table New YA Fantasy Titles vs. All New Titles Released, 2002-2006
      • Table New Children's Fantasy Titles vs. All New Titles Released, 2002-2006
    • Notes on Vampires
    • Science Fiction Children's/YA Books
      • Table New Children's Sci-Fi Titles vs. All New Titles Released, 2002-2006
      • Table New YA Sci-Fi Titles vs. All New Titles Released, 2002-2006
    • Children's and YA Titles: Format Trends
      • Table Total Juvenile and YA Hardcover Titles Published, 2002-2006
      • Table Total Juvenile and YA Softcover Titles Published, 2002-2006
      • E-books and Downloadable Audio
        • Table Total Mass Market Juvenile and YA Titles Published, 2002-2006
        • Table Total Juvenile/YA Compact Discs Published, 2002-2007*
        • Table Total Juvenile/YA Cassette Tapes Published, 2002-2007*
        • Table Total Juvenile E-books Published, 2002-2007*
        • Table Total YA E-books Published, 2002-2007*
      • Other Formats and Trends
        • Table All Juvenile Books Published, by Format, 2002-2007*
  • Distribution and Retail Sales
    • Introduction
      • Table Why Was Business Up in 2006?
    • Independent Bookstores and Children's Books
      • Table How Many Copies Did You Sell of Harry Potter No. 7 Compared to Book No. 6?
      • Table What % of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Buyers Bought Another Book at the Same Time?
      • Table How Has Overall Traffic at Your Store Changed Over the Last Five Years?
      • Table Describe the Gender Mix of Children's/YA Book Buyers at Your Store
      • Table Average Children's/YA Book Buyer Compared to 4-5 Years Ago
      • Table How Has Your Children's/YA Business Been Trending Over the Past Three Years?
    • Mass Merchandisers and Children's Book Retailing
      • Table Big Three vs. Big Box (Physical Store Locations)
      • Table Bestselling Children's Books at Select Retail Stores, 2007
    • The Big Three Chains
    • Physical Store Locations
      • Table Revenue Growth, Leading Bookstore Chains, 2003-2006 ($ in 000, fiscal years ended Jan. 28)
      • Table Growth in Superstore Sales, Major Retail Chains, 2003-2006 ($ in millions; fiscal years ended Jan. 28)
      • Table Big Three Bookstore Chains' Operating Performance, 2002-2006 ($ in millions; fiscal years ended Jan. 28)
    • The Influence of Bookstores on Kids' Reading Habits
      • Table Number of Superstore Outlets, 2002-2006 ($ in 000)
    • New Retail Book Sales Outlets Continue Emerging
    • Online Bookselling
      • Table Why Did You Buy This Book? (PubTrack Consumer sales data by channel)
      • Amazon.com
      • Barnes & Noble.com
        • Table Revenue of Leading Online Booksellers, 2004-2006 ($ in millions)
      • Borders.com
      • Books-A-Million.com
    • Direct-to-Consumer Sales
    • Book Clubs, Fairs and Other Non-Retail Sales
  • Forecasts and Conclusions
    • Conclusions
      • Table Children's Book Sales, 2005-2009P
    • Recommendations:
  • Profiles of Leading Children's Book Publishers
    • Candlewick Press
      • Table Publisher Snapshot: Candlewick
      • Table Candlewick Bestseller Performance (July 2006 - June 2007)
    • Disney Publishing Worldwide
      • Table Publisher Snapshot: Disney Publishing Worldwide
      • Table Disney Publishing Worldwide/Hyperion Books for Children Bestseller Performance (July 2006 - June 2007)
    • Hachette Book Group
      • Table Publisher Snapshot: Hachette Book Group
      • Table Hachette Bestseller Performance (July 2006 - June 2007)
    • HarperCollins Publishers
      • Table Publisher Snapshot: HarperCollins Children's Books
      • Table HarperCollins Children's Books Performance (July 2006 - June 2007)
    • Holtzbrinck
      • Table Publisher Snapshot: Holtzbrinck
    • Houghton Mifflin
      • Table Publisher Snapshot: Houghton Mifflin Trade & Reference
      • Table Houghton Mifflin Bestseller Performance (July 2006 - June 2007)
    • Penguin Group (USA)
      • Table Publisher Snapshot: Penguin Group BFYR
      • Table Penguin Group USA Bestseller Performance (July 2006 - June 2007)
    • Random House Inc.
      • Table Publisher Snapshot: Random House
      • Table Random House Children's Books Bestseller Performance (July 2006 - June 2007)
    • Scholastic
      • Table Publisher Snapshot: Scholastic
      • Table Scholastic Bestseller Performance (July 2006 - June 2007)
    • Simon & Schuster Inc.
      • Table Publisher Snapshot: Simon & Schuster
      • Table Simon & Schuster's Children's Books Bestseller Performance (July 2006 - June 2007)

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