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Children's Publishing Market Forecast 2007


Attention: There is an updated edition available for this report.

Children's Publishing Market Forecast is a new report from Simba Information that gives you the exclusive, insider's view of the children's trade book publishing industry -- the only market intelligence report that takes a holistic view of the trends driving this segment of the trade publishing industry.

Turn to Children's Publishing Market Forecast for exclusive analysis you won't find anywhere else:

  • Objective, independent and highly-vetted analysis of the market forces shaping sales trends through 2009
  • A 5-year analysis of New York Times® Children's Bestseller List that scrutinizes the trends that have driven the industry's most prestigious and trusted ranking -- and find out what category of books stay on the list 25% longer than any other
  • Over 50 charts, graphs and figures, including Simba Information's exclusive growth figures and projections that will assist you determine where to place your investment bets for maximum ROI
  • Exhaustive title output trends and analysis drawn from Bowker's Books In Print® and Books In Print® IntelliMarket™ tools. Find out which segments publishers have been pulling back on -- and which ones they're building up
  • Comprehensive profiles of the 10 leading children's book publishers that enable you to stay current with the competitive landscape -- with data that includes frontlist and backlist sales breakdown, bestseller history, growth projections, and Simba's assessment of market power
  • Comprehensive examination of the trends affecting all players in the industry
  • And more


  • Methodology
  • Executive Summary
  • Overview of the U.S. Children's Book Market
    • Introduction
  • Trends in Children's Book Publishing
    • Introduction
    • The Rise of Children's Series
      • Table Growth of Series in Title Output as a Percentage of Total Books Published, 2003-2007
    • Series Case Study: Harry Potter
      • Table Scholastic Quarterly Revenue, Q3 2003-Q4 2006 ($ in millions of U.S. dollars)
      • Table Harry Potter-Only Revenue, Scholastic Fiscal 2001-Fiscal 2006 (in millions, U.S. $)
    • The Morphine of Motion Picture Tie-Ins
      • Table Polar Express Movie Tie-In Titles, 2004
      • Table New York Times Performance of Louis Sachar's Holes, 2001-2005 (Number of weeks on list)
      • Table New York Times Bestsellers Supported by Movie Tie-Ins (non-series) 2001-2005
    • The Growth of Licensing…and the Expected Tapering
    • Celebrity Author Activity: Not a Growth Engine or a Sure Thing
    • The Growing Focus on the Teen Market
      • Table Barnes & Noble: Top Children's Titles of 2004
    • Recent Children's Bestsellers
      • Table Barnes & Noble: Top Children's Titles of 2005
  • New York Times Bestseller Data
    • Introduction
      • Table Top 10 Publishers, New York Times Bestseller Data, 2001-2005 (No. of titles/No. of weeks)
      • Table New York Times Bestselling Children's Book Publishers by Total Titles, Weeks per Title, Average Weeks per Title, 2005 vs. 2004
      • Table New York Times Children's Bestseller List Publishers, 2001-2005 (excluding series books change in 2004)
    • The Addition of the Series Books List
    • 2005 New York Times Performance: Children's Books
      • Table Leading New York Times Bestselling Children's Book Publishers, 2005 vs. 2004
      • Table New York Times No. 1 Children's Paperback Bestsellers by Longevity, 2005
      • Table New York Times Bestselling Children's Book Publishers, by Titles and Weeks, 2005
      • Table New York Times No. 1 Children's Chapter Bestsellers by Longevity, 2005
      • Table New York Times No. 1 Children's Picture Bestsellers by Longevity, 2005
  • Market Sizing and Forecasts
    • Introduction
    • Revenue Trends
    • Valuation Trends
    • Leading Children's Publishers
      • Candlewick
      • Disney Publishing Worldwide
      • Hachette
      • Harcourt
      • HarperCollins
      • Holtzbrinck
      • Houghton Mifflin
      • Penguin Group (USA)
      • Random House
      • Scholastic
      • Simon & Schuster
    • Size of the Children's Publishing Market
      • Table Revenue Growth, Children's Trade Book Market, 2004-2008P (in billions)
      • Table Leading Children's Publishers by Revenue, 2004-2008P
    • Leading Children's Publishers by Revenue
      • Table Market Share by Number of Juvenile Titles Published, 2001-2006*
    • Leading Children's Publishers by Number of Titles Published
      • Table Number of Juvenile Titles Published, Top 10 Publishers, 2001-2006*
      • Table Market Share by Number of Y/A Titles Published, 2001-2006*
    • Leading Young Adult Publishers by Number of Titles Published
      • Table Number of Y/A Titles Published, Top 10 Publishers, 2001-2006*
    • Leading Young Adult Publishers by Number of Juvenile Fiction Books
    • Leading Publishers by Number of Juvenile/Young Adult Graphic Novels
      • Table Number of Y/A Fiction Titles Published, Top 10 Publishers, 2001-2006*
      • Table Market Share of Juvenile Fiction by Titles Published, 2001-2006*
      • Table Market Share of Juvenile Graphic Novels by Titles Published, 2001-2006*
      • Table Number of Juvenile Graphic Novels Published, Top 10 Publishers, 2001-2006*
      • Table Market Share of Y/A Graphic Novels by Titles Published, 2001-2006*
      • Table Number of Y/A Graphic Novels Published, by Top 10 Publishers, 2001-2006*
  • Title Output Trends
    • Introduction
    • Children's Titles vs. All Titles Released
      • Table New Children's Titles and Young Adult Titles vs. All New Titles Released, 2000-2005
    • Graphic Novels
      • Table Total Juvenile Graphic Novels Published, 2001-2006*
      • Table Total Graphic Novels Published for Young Adults, 2001-2006*
    • Religious Children's/YA Books
      • Table Total Juvenile Religious Titles Published, 2001-2006*
      • Table Total Y/A Religious Titles Published, 2001-2006*
    • Science Fiction Children's/YA Books
      • Table New Children's Science Fiction Titles vs. All New Titles Released, 2000-2005
      • Table New Y/A Sci-Fi Titles vs. All New Titles Released, 2000-2005
    • Children's and Y/A Titles: Format Trends
    • Children's and Y/A Titles: E-Books
      • Table Total Juvenile and Y/A Hardcover Titles Published, 2001-2005
      • Table Total Juvenile and Y/A Softcover Titles Published*, 2001-2005
      • Table Total Mass Market Juvenile and Y/A Titles Published, 2001-2005
      • Table Total Juvenile E-books Published, 2001-2006*
      • Table Total Young Adult E-books Published, 2001-2006*
      • Table All Juvenile Books Published, by Format, 2001-2006*
    • Other Formats and Trends
      • Table Number of Juvenile Titles Published, by Format, 2001-2006*
    • Pricing Trends-Hardcover Children's Titles
      • Table Average Suggested List Prices for Selected Trade Formats, 2005
  • Distribution and Retail Sales
    • Introduction
    • The Effect of Mass Merchandisers on Children's Book Retailing
      • Table Bestselling Children's Books at Select Retail Stores, 2006
      • Table Revenue Growth, Leading Bookstore Chains, 2002-2005 ($ in 000, fiscal years ended Jan. 28)
    • Big Three Chains Posted Improved Results in 2005
      • Barnes & Noble
      • Borders Group
        • Table Growth in Superstore Sales, Major Retail Chains, 2002-2005 ($ in millions; fiscal years ended Jan. 28)
      • Books-A-Million
        • Table Top Three Bookstore Chains' Operating Performance, 2001-2005 ($ in millions; fiscal years ended Jan. 28)
        • Table Number of Superstore Outlets, 2001-2005 ($ in 000)
    • The Influence of Bookstores on Kids' Reading Habits
    • The Growth of Interest in Teen Titles
    • New Retail Book Sales Outlets Continue Emerging
    • Small Publishers Are Gaining Advantages in a Changing Landscape
    • Online Bookselling
      • Amazon.com
        • Table Revenue of Leading Online Booksellers, 2003-2005 ($ in millions)
      • Barnes & Noble.com
      • Borders.com
      • Books-A-Million.com
    • Book Clubs, Fairs and Other Non-Retail Sales
  • Forecasts and Conclusions
    • Conclusions
      • Table Forecast Children's Book Sales, 2004-2008P
    • Recommendations:
  • Profiles of Leading Children's Book Publishers
    • Candlewick Press
      • Table Publisher Snapshot: Candlewick
      • Table Candlewick Children's New York Times Bestseller Performance, 2001-2005
    • Disney Publishing Worldwide
      • Table Publisher Snapshot: Disney Publishing Worldwide
      • Table Disney Publishing Worldwide Children's New York Times Bestseller Performance, 2001-2005
    • Hachette Book Group
      • Table Publisher Snapshot: Hachette Book Group
      • Table Hachette/TWBG Children's New York Times Bestseller Performance, 2001-2005
    • Harcourt Trade
      • Table Publisher Snapshot: Harcourt Trade
      • Table Harcourt Children's New York Times Bestseller Performance, 2001-2005
    • HarperCollins Publishers
      • Table Publisher Snapshot: HarperCollins Children's Books
      • Table HarperCollins Children's New York Times Bestseller Performance, 2001-2005
    • Holtzbrinck
      • Table Publisher Snapshot: Holtzbrinck
      • Table Holtzbrinck Children's New York Times Bestseller Performance, 2001-2005
    • Houghton Mifflin
      • Table Publisher Snapshot: Houghton Mifflin Trade & Reference
      • Table Houghton Mifflin Children's New York Times Bestseller Performance, 2001-2005
    • Penguin Group (USA)
      • Table Publisher Snapshot: Penguin Group
      • Table Penguin Group Children's New York Times Bestseller Performance, 2001-2005
    • Random House Inc.
      • Table Publisher Snapshot: Random House
      • Table Random House Children's New York Times Bestseller Performance, 2001-2005
    • Scholastic
      • Table Publisher Snapshot: Scholastic
      • Table Scholastic Children's New York Times Bestseller Performance, 2001-2005
    • Simon & Schuster Inc.
      • Table Publisher Snapshot: Simon & Schuster
      • Table Simon & Schuster Children's New York Times Bestseller Performance, 2001-2005

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