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UK Grocery 2018

UK Grocery 2018

In a nutshell: consumer spending is under enormous pressure. Prices are rising, wage growth is flat and interest rates are on the up. At the same time, retailers face increasing cost pressures from online, rate rises, minimum wage rises and input cost inflation.

Aldi and Lidl’s successful run in the UK is continuing unabated. Together they now account for around 12% of the market according to Kantar. While the big four are losing share with Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Asda and Morrisons only growing in a lacklustre fashion or with declining lfls, Aldi UK broke through the £10bn barrier in sales for the first time in 2017. And a stop to this growth is not in sight.

The structure of the market is changing, with both Tesco and Sainsbury’s buying into wholesale (Booker) and non food (Argos) respectively. (To us it looks like there is a distinct Brexit shadow hanging over this, a Tesco retreat from overseas to concentrate on the UK and gain better access to the supply chain as well as tapping a new domestic market) Morrisons is the only vertically integrated grocer among the big four and further pushing its agricultural business. The only one of the big four not reacting is Asda.

Looking ahead, the two discounters could more than double their market share from a combined figure of 12% to as much as a quarter of the market over the next 3-5 years.

If it comes to a no deal Brexit then the damage to the sector would be immense. The big 4, Tesco, Sainsbury, Asda and Morrisons would suffer for years to come. And we are saying this without even taking into account their respective challenges and opportunities, by just pointing to the considerable darkening of their horizons in the domestic market."


  • GDP & Population - EU 28
    • GDP: EU28 2014, 2015, 2016 in€, ranked by size
    • GDP & Population: analysis and explanation
    • GDP: EU28 2016 in€, ranked by size, Germany - Finland
    • GDP: EU28 2016 in€, ranked by size, Portugal - Malta
    • Population: EU28 2017, ranked by size
    • GDP: EU28 2016, in€, per capita, ranked by size, Luxembourg - Spain
    • GDP: EU28 2016, in€, per capita, ranked by size, Malta - Bulgaria
  • EU28 Retail - On a rebound
    • Retail: EU28 2014, 2015, 2016, in€, ranked by size
    • Retail: EU28 2016, in€, ranked by size, France - Finland
    • Retail: EU28 2016 in€, ranked by size, Greece - Malta
    • Retail sizes: analysis and explanation
    • Retail: % share of GDP, EU28 2016, ranked by size
    • Retail: EU28 2016, in€, per capita, ranked by size, Luxembourg - Cyprus
    • Retail: EU28 2016, in€, per capita, ranked by size, Spain - Romania
  • Grocery Retail - Defensive sector in transformation
    • Grocery Retail: EU28 2015, 2016, 2017, in€, ranked by size
    • Grocery Retail: EU28 2017, in€, ranked by size, France - Denmark
    • Grocery Retail: EU28 2017, in€, ranked by size, Finland - Malta
    • Grocery Retail sizes: analysis and explanation
    • Grocery Retail: % share of Retail, EU28 2016, ranked by size
    • Grocery Retail: EU28 2017, in€, per capita, ranked by size, Sweden - Estonia
    • Grocery Retail: EU28 2017, in€, per capita, ranked by size, Greece - Romania
  • Growth - EU28 Grocery Retail
    • Grocery Retail: EU28 2012 - 2017, in €bn
      • Table Grocery Retail: EU28 2012 - 2017, in €bn
    • Grocery Retail: EU28 2013 - 2017, in y-o-y %
      • Table Grocery Retail: EU28 2013 - 2017, in y-o-y %
    • Grocery Retail: EU28 2012 - 2017, 5 year growth rate in %, ranked
    • Grocery Retail Growth: analysis and explanation
  • Country profiles - UK - from innovator to laggard thanks to Brexit?
    • Executive summary: Sector in thrall to Brexit uncertainty, discounters, Amazon
  • Market shares and profiles - The leading players
    • UK Grocery Retail: shares, in %, ranked by size, Tesco - Iceland
    • UK: Tesco recovery, cutting subsidiaries, countries and jobs
    • UK: Tesco's Booker merger/acquisition
    • UK: Tesco Booker, supplier opportunity, synergies, store in store concept
    • UK: online grocery opportunity with Booker, still much to do for Tesco
    • UK: Tesco's vegan range, store pictures
    • UK: Sainsbury's - is the Argos acquisition turning sour?
    • UK: Sainsbury's, job cuts, the failed Nisa tie up
    • UK: Sainsbury's Nine Elm's store pictures
    • UK: Asda new boss, Walmart dividend, finally turned a corner?
    • UK: the former Netto stores are still struggling, the runaway success of George
    • UK: Asda job cuts
    • UK: Asda click & collect pick up tower, George concession pictures
    • UK: Morrisons rebounding, partnering with Ocado and Amazon
    • UK: Morrisons - vertical integration as template to emulate for big 4, job cuts
    • UK: Morrisons store pictures, Alexa skill
  • Discounters - Aldi and Lidl transforming UK grocery retail
    • UK: Aldi and Lidl revolutionising UK grocery, Aldi's declining profits
    • UK: …as Aldi sales accelerate, Aldi store opening plans
    • UK: Aldi Christmas record, breaking the £10bn in sales barrier
    • UK: Lidl fastest growing grocer for Christmas in UK, store expansion plans
    • UK: why Tesco's discounter attempt will simply not work
    • UK: cannibalisation, Capex, buyer set up, product quality, store footprints
    • UK: multichannel (incl discounter) vs focused discount operation, poor track record
    • UK: too expensive to launch and dubious results
    • UK: Aldi UK, Lidl UK store pictures, PL specially selected, deluxe pictures
  • Online - UK is the leading EU online grocery market
    • UK: the country of home delivery, Tesco champion, Ocado leapfrogging the rankings
    • UK: Asda's online basket size, Waitrose decline, Morrisons and Amazon
  • Brexit impact - What would happen to food & grocery under a no deal scenario?
    • Food & Grocery: drivers of food price inflation
    • Food & Grocery: our estimates for food price inflation
    • Food & Grocery: no deal impact on price, up to a third more for everyday food
    • Food & Grocery: no deal impact on availability
    • Food & Grocery: animal products and BIPs
  • Outlook - Brexit - the worst case scenario
    • Food & Grocery: growth 2010 - 16, forecast, inflation, volume for 2017-9
      • Table Food & Grocery: growth 2010 - 16, forecast, inflation, volume for 2017-9
    • Food & Grocery: in £bn 2010 - 19f, skyrocketing inflation, in no deal scenario
    • Food & Grocery: relative winners, hard discounters, vertically integrated Morrisons
    • Food & Grocery: panic buying, collapse of Irish trade, devastation of UK farming
  • Sources - Shift from drive to home delivery
  • A bit more on ResearchFarm - January 2018

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