No Deal Brexit - Impact Assessment on Retail Sector
- Last week Sir Ivan Rogers pointed out to the Commons Treasury committee that when the UK becomes a “third country” to the EU, it will have ”no more rights than Yemen or Venezuela”.
- And as of now, allowing for ratification, the UK has only a year left for negotiations.
- But the consequences of a “no deal” would be so “dire”, “chaotic” and “bloody” as to be unthinkable. Without a deal the UK would simply drop into “a legal void”.
- This means a lot of economic activity would simply stop on midnight March 31st 2019.
- As the government is unwilling to publish the impact assessments of a “no deal Brexit” on the 50 plus sectors, we have tried to quantify the impact of no deal on retail.
- We conclude that UK retail would be heading for a decimation, clearly this is a nightmare scenario that needs to be avoided at all costs. For what it’s worth we do not think it will come to this. That said, the risk that developments lead to an accidental no deal outcome none wants cannot be dismissed either.
- Secondly, we also believe that should the UK fall off the cliff, the situation would become so dire, that within days the UK government would try to return to the negotiation table.
- Then again, even in the best possible outcome, there will be significant disruption, as 40 years of integration get unravelled. Many of the developments sketched out in our worst case scenario will come to pass - but in a less brutal force and fashion.