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The Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2018–2023

Data will be the main driver of telecoms revenue growth. Mobile operators will focus on data monetisation to fully utilise the improved bandwidth from their 4G investments. In the fixed segment, NGA roll-outs will lead to some upselling, but affordability issues will limit their impact.

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Table of contents:

 

Executive summary and recommendations


Mobile data services, fixed broadband and pay TV will drive the growth in telecoms retail revenue in Latin America during the forecast period


Telecoms retail revenue will grow across the region but at a slower rate than the rest of the economy


Geographical coverage: the 4G share of connections will be the lowest in Colombia and Peru, but these countries will have some of the highest NGA shares


Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets


Key recommendations for telecoms operators


Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison


Market context: economic recovery will continue across the region, but this will have a limited impact on the telecoms sector


Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries


Key drivers at a glance for each Latin American market


Market overview: mobile data and fixed broadband will continue to drive service revenue growth


Mobile: data consumption will grow, partly driven by an increase in the number of contract connections, resulting in a positive ARPU trend


Mobile: mobile ARPU in LATAM will remain largely constant, except in Argentina due to inflation and in Brazil due to a shift from prepaid to contract connections


Mobile: connectivity growth will be limited, but ARPU will be positively affected by an increase in the contract share of connections


Fixed: operators’ fibre and cable roll-out plans will have a strong positive effect on NGA adoption across the region


Fixed: the growth in fixed broadband penetration will slow down throughout the forecast period due to limited service affordability

 

Fixed: fixed revenue will slowly decline from 2020 onwards due to a decrease in fixed voice revenue, despite revenue growth in FBB and business services


Business services: new services will drive revenue growth but dedicated business solutions will remain an important source of revenue


IoT: there will be significant growth in IoT connectivity, but IoT will contribute only a small amount to the total operator revenue


Pay TV: the popularity of local TV content and sports, particularly football, will prevent a substantial decline in pay-TV prices


Individual country forecasts


Argentina: double-digit inflation will result in artificially high revenue growth in both fixed and mobile segments


Argentina: on top of inflation, the growth in mobile data consumption and NGA technology usage will have a positive impact on revenue


Argentina: regulatory changes, new spectrum availability and market consolidation have shaken up the fixed, mobile and pay-TV markets


Argentina: forecast changes


Brazil: the total telecoms revenue will increase slightly as revenue growth in fixed broadband and mobile data will offset the loss of fixed voice revenue


Brazil: mobile ARPU will increase by nearly 20% between 2017 and 2023, driven by a shift from prepaid to contract, as well as strong 4G take-up


Brazil: the growth in the number of postpaid mobile and NGA connections will lead to a slow but steady increase in telecom revenue


Brazil: forecast changes


Chile: revenue growth in FBB and business services will decrease meaning that the total telecoms revenue will stay stable at just below CLP3.9 trillion

 

Chile: fixed broadband ARPU will increase thanks to growth in NGA connectivity, but this will be counterbalanced by a fall in fixed voice ARPU


Chile: the total telecoms revenue will be negatively affected by competition in mobile services and by declining voice services revenue


Chile: forecast changes


Colombia: revenue growth is set to slow down considerably after 2017 as fixed broadband growth slows and business revenue starts to decline


Colombia: FBB ASPU will grow by 11% during the forecast period as the number of cable connections grows and fibre becomes more widespread


Colombia: mobile operators are rolling out LTE-A networks in order to increase 4G take-up


Colombia: forecast changes


Mexico: the number of mobile connections is steadily increasing, and the number of IoT connections is expected to grow to 28.9 million by 2023


Mexico: mobile data traffic is set to increase six-fold from 2017 to 2023, as 4G connections start to dominate and 5G is launched


Mexico: the number of connections for newer mobile technologies will be affected by changes in spectrum allocation


Mexico: forecast changes


Peru: the negative CAGR for mobile broadband and fixed voice revenue is balanced by revenue growth for handset and fixed broadband


Peru: the number of 4G connections will grow with a CAGR of 19% between 2017 and 2023; the contract share of connections will remain stable


Peru: regulatory sanctions should make the mobile market more consumer friendly

Peru: forecast changes

 

Methodology

Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge

Examples of forecast input drivers

Key drivers at a glance table: methodology

About the author and Analysys Mason

About the author

Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned

Research from Analysys Mason

 

List of figures:

 

Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, Latin America, 2013–2023

Figure 2: Growth in both telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, Latin America, 2017–2023

Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Latin America, 2017 and 20231

Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Latin America

Figure 5: Metrics for the six countries modelled individually in Latin America, 2017

Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in Latin America

Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2017) and future trajectory (2018–2023), by country, Latin America

Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Latin America (USD billion), 2013–2023

Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Latin America (million), 2013–2023

Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Latin America, 2013–2023

Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Latin America (million), 2013–2023

Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Latin America (million), 2013–2023

Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Latin America (USD per month), 2013–2023

Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Latin America, 2013–2023

Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Latin America (MB per month), 2013–2023

Figure 16: Mobile penetration by country, Latin America, 2013–2023

Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by country, Latin America, 2013–2023

Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Latin America (million), 2013–2023

Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Latin America (USD billion), 2013–2023

Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Latin America, 2013–2023

Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, Latin America (GB per month), 2013–2023

Figure 22: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Latin America, 2013–2023

Figure 23: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Latin America, 2013–2023

Figure 24: Total market revenue from business services, Latin America, 2013–2023

Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Latin America, 2014–2023

Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, Latin America, 2014–2023

Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Argentina (ARS billion), 2013–2023

Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Argentina (million), 2013–2023

Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Argentina, 2013–2023

Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Argentina (million), 2013–2023

Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Argentina, 2013–2023

Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Argentina (ARS per month), 2013–2023

Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Argentina (MB per month), 2013–2023

Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Argentina (million), 2013–2023

Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Argentina, 2013–2023

Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Brazil (BRL billion), 2013–2023

Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Brazil (million), 2013–2023

Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Brazil, 2013–2023

Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Brazil (million), 2013–2023

Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Brazil, 2013–2023

Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Brazil (BRL per month), 2013–2023

Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Brazil (MB per month), 2013–2023

Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Brazil (million), 2013–2023

Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Brazil, 2013–2023

Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Chile (CLP trillion), 2013–2023

Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Chile (million), 2013–2023

Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Chile, 2013–2023

Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Chile (million), 2013–2023

Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Chile, 2013–2023

Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Chile (CLP thousand per month), 2013–2023

Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Chile (MB per month), 2013–2023

Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Chile (million), 2013–2023

Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Chile, 2013–2023

Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Colombia (COP trillion), 2013–2023

Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, Colombia (million), 2013–2023

Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Colombia, 2013–2023

Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, Colombia (million), 2013–2023

Figure 58: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Colombia, 2013–2023

Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Colombia (COP thousand per month), 2013–2023

Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, Colombia (MB per month), 2013–2023

Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, Colombia (million), 2013–2023

Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Colombia, 2013–2023

Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Mexico (MXN billion), 2013–2023

Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Mexico (million), 2013–2023

Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Mexico, 2013–2023

Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Mexico (million), 2013–2023

Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Mexico, 2013–2023

Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Mexico (MXN per month), 2013–2023

Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Mexico (MB per month), 2013–2023

Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Mexico (million), 2013–2023

Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Mexico, 2013–2023

Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Peru (PEN billion), 2013–2023

Figure 73: Mobile connections by type, Peru (million), 2013–2023

Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Peru, 2013–2023

Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, Peru (million), 2013–2023

Figure 76: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Peru, 2013–2023

Figure 77: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Peru (PEN per month), 2013–2023

Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, Peru (MB per month), 2013–2023

Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, Peru (million), 2013–2023

Figure 80: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Peru, 2013–2023

Figure 81: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores

 

 

 

 

 

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