The Fixed network data traffic: worldwide trends and forecasts 2017–2023

The Fixed network data traffic: worldwide trends and forecasts 2017–2023

A perverse consequence of the rise of fixed–mobile bundling is that mobile-centric operators are now forced to compete in the area that they, by and large, have failed adequately to address: home-base data usage. Without continued strong growth in fixed data demand, fixed operators run the risk of seeing their customer-bases shrink. This report provides a clear insight into the drivers and inhibitors of fixed data traffic growth.

Note:  This report is delivered as a zip file, containing, PPTX, PDF and Excel files.

Worldwide trends

Worldwide summary: Broadcast substitution is the main driver of fixed traffic growth

Worldwide: Emerging markets will contribute 52% of Internet traffic by 2023

Worldwide: In more-mature mobile markets, fixed and mobile traffic growth is closer to parity, but this could change

Worldwide: NGA usage levels already demonstrate very strong IP migration for TV and video

Worldwide: TV is king, and mobile devices constitute a small and declining share of broadband traffic

Worldwide: It’s not just unicast services that are in the Cloud; linear content is moving there too

Worldwide: Substitution is a renewed threat, so bandwidth-hogging services are the fixed operator’s best friends

Worldwide: Busy-hour share, asymmetry ratios, and mean:median ratios all show slow, long-term trends

Forecast methodology and assumptions

The methodology focuses on shifts in video consumption and technologies

About the authors and Analysys Mason


Figure 1: Total fixed IP traffic by type, worldwide, 2016–2023

Figure 2: Fixed IP traffic split by device, worldwide, 2014-2023

Figure 3: Total fixed Internet traffic, by worldwide region, 2015–2023

Figure 4: Fixed and mobile Internet data growth, and mobile share of total, Japan, 2H 2010–1H 2017

Figure 5: Fixed and mobile data annualised traffic growth, year-end 2016

Figure 6: Heavy usage service providers, year-end 2016 or nearest date

Figure 7: HKT breakdown of monthly FTTx data usage, year-end 2015 and yearend 2016

Figure 8: Average data usage per smartphone and per broadband connection, plus estimated smartphone share of fixed traffic, 3Q 2016

Figure 9: iPlayer share of TV content requests by device (excluding unknowns)

Figure 10: OTT video: the journey from the margins to the centre

Figure 11: Busy, average hour bandwidths per connection, busy/average ratios, USA and W Europe, 2015–2023

Figure 12: Upstream share of Internet traffic, developed regions and worldwide, 2015–2023

Figure 13: Mean and median usage per connection, Western Europe, 2015– 2023

Figure 14: Scope of this forecast

Figure 15: Simplified diagram of three classes of fixed IP data traffic

Figure 16: Fixed data traffic forecast methodology

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