“Synergy - Autonomous Car and 5G Technologies” Markets, Standardization, Technologies

“Synergy - Autonomous Car and 5G Technologies” Markets, Standardization, Technologies

This report updates and extends the Practel “Intelligent Car” project.

The goal of this report is to:

  • Analyze current trends in the Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) development
  • Address the progress in the ITS standardization
  • Analyze technological and marketing ITS specifics
  • Address the connected car trend
  • Analyze the connected car technologies and marketing specifics; identify major industry players and their portfolios
  • Present the current status of the driverless car development
  • Analyze marketing and technological driverless car specifics
  • Analyze the lidar technologies and market as well as the industry for automotive applications
  • Show how communications industry is preparing for the 5G era, emphasizing the role of 5G mobile communications in supporting the driverless car development. The driverless car is one of important 5G use cases.
Though never managing to successfully predict what each forthcoming generation of mobile technology should deliver to satisfy future users, the industry has nonetheless reached some consensus on the use cases for 5G communications. Machine to machine communications is one. 5G should enable the IoT, the future where all online-enabled objects will quietly pass on data to each other or to a central computer.

Facilitating the use of mobile networks by connected and autonomous cars, remotely controlled industrial robots, telehealth systems, and smart city infrastructure are also all expected to figure large in 5G thinking. There is a common notion the industry is hoping that 5G will solve problems we don't have today, but those that could hold us back years in the future – and one of the best examples to such a statement is a driverless car.
-This particular report addresses the Intelligent Transportation Systems progress in reaching its ultimate goal - to make a car “intelligent” enough to safely drive without a human participation. It also updates the status of a driverless car development in connection with transition to the 5G era: the industry identified driverless cars as most viable form of ITS, dominating the roadways by 2040 and sparking dramatic changes in vehicular travel. The report discusses the specifics of the 5G era as they are seen by the industry at the present time with emphasis on what 5G technologies can bring to the driverless car.
-Such a car was considered by many as a scientists’ dream only 10-15 years ago; now it is a reality and all predictions are that driverless cars will hit the roads in 6-8 years. Fully developed driverless car needs support by communications systems evolving in the transition to 5G; and these two developments are interrelated - a driverless car becomes a 5G use case.

The report provides overview of the current status of the driverless car development, pictures the future steps, which the industry is planning, analyzes roadblocks, and emphasizes the importance of standardization – several organizations are working in this direction. The analysis concentrates on technological and marketing aspects of driverless cars and also on the status of the industry.

Note that prognosis that were made in 2012-2018 regarding the rapid development of smart roads with a wide commercialization of driverless cars already in 2022-2023 proved to be ephemeral. Currently, such dates moved to 2027-2030 and even they seem to be too optimistic.

The survey of driverless cars projects currently underway is conducted; as well as the survey of related patents (2018-2022). Initial marketing statistics are developed.
-The detailed analysis of two important parts of a driverless car – lidar (one of the main components of ADAS) and the communications gear - “connected car” - is performed. The survey of recent auto lidar patents is also performed.

A driverless car, for simplicity, may be described as a combination of a connected car and ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems); and other parts. The ADAS important part is driverless car “eyes” – instruments that can “see” surroundings and provide the information to the car for the analysis and taking relevant actions. One of most promising technologies that make cars “to see” is lidar, which is composed of laser and other parts. The report provides the detailed analysis of auto lidar technical and marketing characteristics and the survey of the industry.

The detailed analysis of connected cars (CCs) specifics, standardization, technical characteristics and economics are also presented in this report. The industry solution for the CC communication gear is to design and manage concurrent operation of multiple wireless technologies using the same spectrum frequencies. This accelerates advanced technologies development and saves resources.

The companies – contributors to the connected car market development – are identified and their portfolios are analyzed.

The report also emphasizes the importance of 5G mobile networking as a basis for the driverless car ITS revolution. With “ultimate” ITS, it is expected that safety on the roads will be drastically improved and the society will be free from massive number of injuries and deaths on the roads as well as from damages to the economy due to accidents and traffic jams.

A preliminary evaluation of the COVID-19 impact on the driverless car industry development is presented.

The report is intended to technical and managerial staff involved in the advanced ITS development; and for specialists in communications technologies who support such a development.

1.0 Introduction
1.1 Overview
1.2 Report Goal
1.3 Report Scope
1.4 Research Methodology
1.5 Target Audience
2.0 ITS: Roads to Perfection
2.1 Response
2.2 Structure
2.3 ITS Key Technologies
2.4 ITS Main Subsystems – Driverless Car Basis
2.5 ITS Standardization: In Progress
2.5.1 Overview
2.5.2 ETSI - Europe
2.5.3 U.S. General National Transportation Communications for ITS Protocol (NTCIP)
2.5.4 International General ITU
2.5.5 Summary
2.6 ITS Applications
2.6.1 V2V and V2I
2.6.2 Intelligent Vehicles
2.7 ITS Market Statistics
2.7.1 General
2.7.2 Estimate
3.0 Connected Car
3.1 General – Definition
3.1.1 Driving Forces
3.2 Alternatives: Technologies
3.2.1 Connected Car - 5.9 GHz DSRC Background Recent Developments Efforts - History Place Structure and Protocols Requirements Milestones IEEE 802.11p General Objectives and Status ASTM Contributions Characteristics IEEE 1609 General Overview IEEE 1609 in Use ETSI ITS-G5 – Major Features ISO and DSRC 5.9 GHz DSRC Components and Procedures Components Procedures Major Applications EPS Spectrum – DSRC Channels Designation Services Major Services Service Categories/QoS Service Requirements Summary: 5.9 GHz DSRC Characteristics Market Segment and Industry Market Drivers Market Requirements Market Estimate - 5.9 GHz DSRC Industry Industry Coalition Recent Progress Vendors
Cohda Wireless
u-blox Enhancing 802.11p – 802.11bd Scope Milestones
3.2.2 Connected Car – Cellular Technologies General 3GPP Activities D2D Communications C-V2X Broadcast Performance Comparison
3.3 Connected Car - Features
3.3.3 Two Technologies – Two Opinions Governments Comparison Latest FCC Decisions
3.3.4 Functional Technologies Over the Air Updates
3.3.5 Major Applications
3.3.6 Policies
3.3.7 Choices
3.3.8 Network Requirements
3.3.9 Market: Connected Car
3.3.10 Industry
Airbiquity Inc.
MobilEye (an Intel Company)
Sierra Wireless
Wind River
3.3.11 NR V2X - Evolution of C-V2X
4.0 Connected Car – Industry Groups and Standardization
4.1 Industry Groups
4.1.1 Open Automotive Alliance
4.1.2 4G Venture Forum for Connected Cars
4.1.3 Apple – iOS in the Car
4.1.4 GSMA Connected Car Forum
4.1.5 Car Connectivity Consortium
4.2 Standards and Regulations
4.2.1 Joint Efforts
4.2.2 EU
4.2.3 U.S.
4.2.4 WWW Consortium
4.2.5 SAE
5.0 5G Era
5.1 5G Timetable (3GPP-ITU)
5.2 Contributors
5.3 5G Activity Survey
5.3.1 NGMN Ltd – Supporter of C-V2X 5G White Papers
5.3.2 5G-PPP (5G Public Private Partnership)
5.3.3 5G Americas
5.3.4 GSMA GSMA Report on 5G Vision The Evolution: From 4G to 5G 5G Use Cases
5.3.5 Verizon 5G Technology Forum (TF)
5.3.6 3GPP – New Radio (NR)
6.0 5G Technologies – Main Features
6.1 Look into Future
6.2 Promising Directions
6.2.1 Requirements
6.2.2 Common Views 5G Spectrum
6.3 Issues
6.4 Use Cases
6.4.1 General – Characteristics
6.4.2 Mobile Broadband
6.4.3 Automotive
6.4.4 Smart Society
7.0 Evolving of Driverless Car
7.1 Growing Together
7.2 Directions and Issues
7.3 ADAS
7.4 Current Status – Legislation and Insurance
7.4.1 The U.S.
7.4.2 The GB
7.4.3 China
7.5 Major Benefits
7.6 Solutions
7.7 Market Projections and Price
7.8 Phases
7.8.1 Required Characteristics
7.9 Industry and R&D
7.9.1 Automakers Audi First Level 3 Car Level 4 Concept Car Cooperation Ford GM Nissan Daimler/Mercedes VW and AdaptIVe Consortium Volvo Cars Tesla Motors SAIC Other
7.9.2 R&D and Competitors Alphabet/Google – ProjectX -Waym
  • 150
  • Baidu DOTs Telecom Readiness: Driverless Car - 5G Communications Huawei Swisscom QNX Continental Automotive Nvidia
    7.9.3 Start-ups Cruise Automotive Induct Technologies Uber Uber/Ott
  • 162
  • Lyft/Toyota Nur
  • 163
  • Aurora Innovation TuSimple Argo.AI Beep Idriverplus
    7.10 Standardization
    7.10.1 NHTSA Levels
    7.10.2 SAE International USA Preparedness
    7.10.3 IEEE Survey P2020
    7.10.4 AECC
    7.10.5 Summary
    7.11 COVID-19: Impact on Driverless Car Development
    7.11.1 Major Changes
    8.0 Lidar
    8.1 General
    8.1.1 Categories
    8.1.2 Typical Characteristics
    8.2 Structure and Functionalities
    8.2.1 Comparison with other Sensors
    8.3 Sensors and Bad Weather
    8.4 Industry
    Analog Devices
    Ibeo (subsidiary of SICK AG)
    Lasertel (a Leonardo Company)
    Newsight Vision
    On Semiconductor
    Waymo (Alphabet)
    Chinese Lidar Industry
    8.5 Lidars Benefits and Limitations
    8.6 Market
    9.0 Conclusions
    Attachment I: Driverless/Connected Car Patents Survey (2017-2022)
    Attachment II: Automotive Lidar-Patents Survey (2017-2022)
    Figure 1: Wireless Communications: ITS Environment
    Figure 2: Europe – Standardization Organizations
    Figure 3: U.S. - ITS Standardizations Bodies
    Figure 4: NTCIP Structure
    Figure 5: International –Standardization Bodies - ITS
    Figure 6: Estimate: Global Market – ITS ($B)
    Figure 7: Estimate: ITS WICT- Global Market ($B)
    Figure 8: ITS Equipment Sales by Regions ($B)
    Figure 9: Connected Car - Sensors
    Figure 10: 5.9 GHz DSRC – Frequencies Allocation and Channelization
    Figure 11: 5.9 GHz DSRC - Modified Spectrum Proposal
    Figure 12: Industry Cooperation
    Figure 13: ITS-5.9 GHz DSRC - Illustration
    Figure 14: Communications Model: WAVE
    Figure 15: 802.11p - Communications
    Figure 16: Signals Flow
    Figure 17: Collision Detection/Avoidance System
    Figure 18: Work Zone Warning
    Figure 19: “Smart” Car
    Figure 20: DSRC Worldwide – Spectrum Allocation
    Figure 21: DSRC: Spectrum Allocation Details
    Figure 22: Channel Assignment – 5.9 GHz DSRC
    Figure 23: 5.9 GHz DSRC Transmission Characteristics and Channelization
    Figure 24: Spectrum Details – Overlapping Wi-Fi
    Figure 25: Major Categories-DSRC Services
    Figure 26: 5.9 GHz DSRC Rate vs. Distance
    Figure 27: 5.9 GHz DSRC Protocols – Summary
    Figure 28: Estimate: 5.9 GHz DSRC U.S. Market Size ($B)
    Figure 29: C-V2X Modes of Communications
    Figure 30: 3GPP Schedule – Evolution of LTE-based Communications
    Figure 31: D2D Communications – Evolution
    Figure 32: LTE ProSe Functions – Discovery and Communications
    Figure 33: 3GPP – C-V2X Technology Development
    Figure 34: Connected Car Functionalities
    Figure 35: Network Requirements – Connected Car Connectivity
    Figure 36: Estimate – Global Market – Connected Car ($B)
    Figure 37: Estimate: Global Market – CC - Wireless Equipment Sales ($B)
    Figure 38: Connected Car Penetration – U.S. Auto Market (%)
    Figure 39: ITU-R Schedule and Process for IMT-2020
    Figure 40: 3GPP – Initial Time Line – 5G Standardization
    Figure 41: Initial Time Line – NR Development
    Figure 42: Transition - Current View
    Figure 43: 5G Spectrum
    Figure 44: 5G Technologies Directions
    Figure 45: 5G – related Characteristics
    Figure 46: 5G Use Cases – Rate of Transmission and Latency
    Figure 47: U.S. – Driverless Car Legislative Status (as of 2021)
    Figure 48: Estimate: Driverless Cars Sold – Global (%)
    Figure 49: Evolution Path – Driverless Car
    Figure 50: Autonomous Car Communications Ecosystem
    Figure 51: NHTSA - Car Automation Levels
    Figure 52: Lidar and Radar Properties
    Figure 53: Estimate: Lidar Market Size – Global ($B)
    Figure 54: Estimate: Automotive Lidar Market Size – Global ($B)
    Table 1: ETSI G5 Characteristics
    Table 2: Service Categories
    Table 3: Service Requirements
    Table 4: 5.9 GHz DSRC Characteristics
    Table 5: 802.11p and 802.11bd
    Table 6: Schedule – 802.11bd
    Table 7: LTE - D2D and Broadcast Modes – Performance Comparison
    Table 8: Major Parameters – 5.9 GHz DSRC and C-V2X
    Table 9: NR V2X vs 802.11bd
    Table 10: 5G Network Major Characteristics
    Table 11: 5G Use Cases
    Table 12: Revisions
    Table 13: Driverless Car Development – Covid-19 Impact
    Table 14: Projections
    Table 15: Lidar Characteristics – Automotive Applications
    Table 16: Chinese Auto Lidars
    Table 17: Lidar and Video Camera Properties

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