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New Zealand - Telecoms and Mobile Markets

This report covers trends and developments in telecommunications, mobile communications, including VoIP and regulatory developments in New Zealand. Subjects include:

  • Key players in the market including the incumbent operator;
  • Regulatory changes effecting the market;
  • Planned spectrum changes to the analogue/digital TV and mobile frequencies;
  • Key telecommunications statistics;
  • An overall market snapshot with statistics and forecasts;
  • Trends and forecasts in the telecommunications markets through to 2020;
  • Market analysis and descriptive commentary of historical, current and future market changes.
 


BuddeComm’s annual publication, New Zealand - Telecoms and Mobile Markets provides an overview with analysis of the mobile and telecoms sectors in the New Zealand market. We include statistics, forecasts and analysis of the mobile, VoIP and regulatory sectors of the New Zealand telecommunications markets. In the publication we also provide broad coverage on the major players in the New Zealand telecommunications markets with a snapshot of key statistical data, covering all the major telecommunications segments including Internet, broadband, mobile, telephone network and broadcasting. 

Unprecedented activity is taking place in the New Zealand telecoms market. The functional separation has allowed some players in the fixed market to improve their margins and to increase their market share. All options are being kept open by these players but it is very likely that Local Loop Unbundling (LLU) consolidation will take place in 2010. Despite all of these activities and new investments the overall revenues in the market are not growing and this is putting all the players in the market under continued financial pressure.  

In 2008/09 BuddeComm predicted New Zealand mobile subscriber growth rates of 5.4%. We were not far off the mark as the actual rate was only slightly lower at 4.4%. We also predicted a 6.3% growth rate in 2009/10. After revision of the markets and the regulatory changes together with the after effects of the global financial crisis (GFC), we have now revised our predictions to a slightly lower rate of annual change of 3.8%. These lower rates of annual change in a saturated mobile subscriber market will now be driven by the consumer features available in the advanced 3G network features that the incumbents are pushing and by the entry of the new operator, 2degrees. 

Major players in the market

Kordia

In 2009 Kordia launched OnKor, a nationwide managed WAN service, and also KorKor, the first two-way digital radio network in New Zealand. In 2010, Kordia’s profitability hinges on the improvement in the economy of several countries where projects and ongoing services are provided. 

Telecom Corporation of New Zealand

In this publication we provide an overview of Telecom’s strategic approach, products and services, business structure, and financial statistics. Telecom’s decreasing trend in mobile revenue may reverse in 2009/10 if new customers takeup the recently released 3G 850MHz XT mobile network.

 Vodafone NZ

We provide an overview of the financial and operations of the company. We also provide analysis of Vodafone’s market strategy in relation to the competition from the recently arrived XT 3G mobile and 2degrees networks and the possible benefits to Vodafone from the Ultra-Fast Broadband Network. 

Regulatory Environment and SpectrumBy late 2009 the monthly mobile numbers ported has more than doubled the steady rate of the last few years, due to the new mobile networks that were activated in 2009. We provide an update on the renewal of the 800/900MHz spectrum by Telecom and Vodafone and report on the spectrum swap to NZ Communications, the new mobile player now called 2degrees 

Monthly porting of local and mobile numbers - 2009
Month Local numbers Mobile numbers
Jan 2,808 2,280
Feb 3,758 2,891
Mar 3,744 3,282
Apr 7,828 2,496
May 7,879 2,197
Jun 6,195 4,682
Jul 14,758 5,387
Aug 11,728 15,496
Sep 4,408 17,313
Oct 2,301 13,394
Nov 4,815 11,306
(Source: BuddeComm based on TCF data)


 Key highlights:

       Revenue statistics by market segment
Revenue statistics by major provider
New mobile networks and operators in the marketplace in 2009
Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO) market issues; Overview of planned spectrum changes to the TV and mobile frequencies
Telecommunications market size and estimates
The major players, company financial information and their markets. 

Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year.

1. The Market in 2010
1.1 The Ultra-Fast Broadband Network
1.2 Need for trans-sector policies
1.3 Structural separation needed for Telecom
1.4 Much excitement in the mobile market
1.5 Revival of the smaller players
1.5.1 Functional separation
1.5.2 Local Loop Unbundling
1.5.3 Cabinetisation
1.5.4 Fibre opportunities
1.5.5 Wireless broadband
2. Key statistics
3. Statistical overview - Telecoms Market
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Revenue statistics and forecasts
3.2.1 Revenue statistics by market segment
3.2.2 Revenue statistics by major provider
3.2.3 Broadband and data market
3.2.4 Mobile market
3.2.5 Fixed-voice and VoIP market
4. Market forecasts 2010, 2015, 2020
4.1 Total overhaul of the industry
4.2 Infrastructure market
4.3 The retail market
4.4 The mobile market
4.5 The trans-sector market
4.6 The digital media market
4.7 Business models and Merger and Acquisitions (M&A)
4.7.1 Fixed market scenarios
4.7.2 Mobile market scenarios
5. VoIP and fixed-line voice market
5.1 Where is the NZ VoIP market heading?
5.1.1 Residential VoIP adoption will be slow and protracted
5.2 Local VoIP market developments
5.2.1 Market size and estimates
5.2.2 Numbering issues
5.2.3 Residential sector
5.2.4 Business sector
5.3 Local access and fixed voice overview
5.3.1 Fixed-line voice market trends moving towards 2010
5.3.2 Smaller players gaining only limited traction
5.4 Payphones
5.4.1 Webphone rollout
5.5 Fixed-Mobile Convergence (FMC)
5.5.1 Introduction
5.5.2 Service bundling
5.5.3 Dual-mode services
5.5.4 Network convergence
6. Mobile communications
6.1 Major mobile operators
6.1.1 Telecom Mobile
6.1.2 Vodafone New Zealand
6.1.3 2degrees
6.1.4 Mobile Virtual Network Operators
6.2 Analysis
6.2.1 Overview of 2009 moving into 2010
6.2.2 The mobile termination rate debate
6.2.3 Bill and keep
6.3 Statistics
6.3.1 Operating statistics, forecasts and analysis
6.3.2 Revenue statistics
6.3.3 Number portability
6.3.4 Comparison of Telecom and Vodafone 3G networks
6.4 Spectrum
6.4.1 Spectrum market and regulatory overview
6.4.2 The Radiocommunications Act 1989
6.4.3 Market developments in 2009
6.4.4 Market developments in 2008
7. Regulatory Environment
7.1 Local loop unbundling and TSO
7.1.1 LLU and UBS overview
7.1.2 LLU and UBS market developments
7.1.3 Telecommunications Service Obligations (Kiwi Share)
7.1.4 Telecommunications Dispute Resolution (TDR) Scheme
7.2 Mobile, wholesale and number portability
7.2.1 Mobile services reforms overview - 2009
7.2.2 Mobile services reforms - 2008
7.2.3 Wholesale access
7.2.4 Number Portability (NP)
8. Major Players
8.1 Telecom Corporation New Zealand
8.1.1 Company information
8.1.2 Company analysis late 2009
8.1.3 Market developments and strategy overview
8.1.4 Company divisions
8.1.5 Telecom’s network
8.1.6 Subsidiary and associate companies
8.1.7 Products and services
8.1.8 Environmental issue developments
8.1.9 Financial results
8.1.10 Brief company history
8.2 Vodafone New Zealand
8.2.1 Company information
8.2.2 Company analysis late 2009
8.2.3 The network
8.2.4 Products and services
8.2.5 Wholesale and roaming
8.2.6 Financial results
8.2.7 Subscriber and operating statistics
8.2.8 Company history
8.3 TelstraClear Limited
8.3.1 Company information
8.3.2 The network
8.3.3 Wholesale and partnerships
8.3.4 Business and consumer products and services
8.3.5 Business operations
8.3.6 Financial results
8.3.7 Operating statistics
8.3.8 Company history
8.4 Kordia
8.4.1 Company information
8.4.2 The network
8.4.3 OptiKor Trans-Tasman submarine cable
8.4.4 Digital Audio Broadcasting (DAB)
8.4.5 Video-over-IP broadcasting
8.4.6 Financial results
8.5 CallPlus
8.6 M2 Telecommunications
8.7 Southern Cross Cable Network
8.8 WxC (Worldxchange Communications)
9. Glossary of Abbreviations
List of Tables and Exhibites
Table 1 - Country statistics New Zealand - 2009
Table 2 - Telecom revenue statistics - 2008 - 2010
Table 3 - Telephone network statistics - 2009
Table 4 - Internet provider statistics - 2009
Table 5 - Broadband statistics - 2009
Table 6 - Mobile statistics - 2009
Table 7 - Broadcasting statistics - Pay TV and FTA TV - 2009
Table 8 - Total market revenue by major service - 2006 - 2010
Table 9 - Annual change in total market revenue by service - 2007 - 2010
Table 10 - Telco market revenue by major provider - 2007 - 2010
Table 11 - Annual change in telco market revenue by major provider - 2007 - 2010
Table 12 - Percentage breakdown of telco market revenue by major provider - 2007 - 2010
Table 13 - Data market revenue - broadband, dial-up and other data - 2004 - 2010
Table 14 - Data market revenue growth - broadband, dial-up and other data - 2005 - 2010
Table 10 - Local access calling revenue and annual change - 2003 - 2010
Table 15 - Size of fixed trans-sector market - 2020
Table 16 - Size of mobile trans-sector market - 2020
Table 17 - Telecommunications services revenue by market - 2010; 2015; 2020
Table 18 - Telecommunications services revenue share by market - 2010; 2015; 2020
Table 19 - Local access, calling revenues and annual change - 2003 - 2010
Table 20 - pieNETWORKS webphone charges - 2009
Table 21 - Telecom and Vodafone network termination rates - 2009 - 2014
Table 22 - Mobile subscribers, annual change and penetration rate - 1995 - 2010
Table 23 - Mobile subscribers per operator - 2001 - 2010
Table 24 - Annual change in mobile subscribers per operator - 2002 - 2010
Table 25 - Market share of mobile subscribers per operator - 1995 - 2010
Table 26 - Mobile subscribers by technology - 2007 - 2009
Table 27 - Percentage of mobile subscribers by technology - 2007 - 2009
Table 28 - 2G subscribers by operator - 2006 - 2009
Table 29 - 3G subscribers by operator - 2006 - 2009
Table 30 - Percentage 3G subscribers by operator - 2006 - 2009
Table 31 - Percentage of prepaid customers per operator - 2005 - 2010
Table 32 - Telecom Mobile annual call minutes and annual change - 2005 - 2009
Table 33 - Mobile market revenue by operator - 1997 - 2010
Table 34 - Mobile market revenue growth by operator - 1998 - 2010
Table 35 - Mobile revenue market share by operator - 1997 - 2010
Table 36 - Average monthly prepaid and postpaid ARPU per operator - 2005 - 2009
Table 37 - Annual cost of TSO - 2001 - 2009
Table 38 - TSO qualified revenue and TRS TSO charges - 2007 - 2009
Table 39 - Monthly porting of local and mobile numbers, percentage change - 2008 - 2009
Table 40 - Telecom Group financial highlights - 2007 - 2009
Table 41 - Telecom Group financial highlights - 2000 - 2006 (historic)
Table 42 - Telecom Group operating revenue by segment - 2007 - 2009
Table 43 - Telecom Group operating revenue by service - 2005 - 2009
Table 44 - Telecom Group expenses - 2005 - 2009
Table 45 - Capital expenditure - 1999 - 2010
Table 46 - New Zealand operations operating revenues by service - 2006 - 2009
Table 47 - New Zealand operations expenses - 2006 - 2009
Table 48 - Australian operations operating revenue by service - 2006 - 2009
Table 49 - Australian operations expenses - 2006 - 2009
Table 50 - Telecom Group financial operating highlights - 2009 - 2010
Table 51 - Telecom Group operating revenue by segment - 2009 - 2010
Table 52 - Telecom Group operating revenue by service - 2009 - 2010
Table 53 - Telecom Group expenses - 2005 - 2009
Table 54 - Telecom Group operating revenue by industry segment - 2006 - 2008
Table 55 - Telecom Group EBIT by industry segment - 2006 - 2008
Table 56 - Vodafone NZ revenue and annual change - 1996 - 2010
Table 57 - Vodafone NZ annual profit and annual change - 2002 - 2009
Table 58 - Vodafone NZ average monthly ARPU - pre/postpaid and total - 2003 - 2010
Table 59 - Vodafone subscriber statistics - 1998 - 2010
Table 60 - TelstraClear financial highlights and annual change - 2008 - 2009
Table 61 - TelstraClear: financial data and annual change - 2007 - 2008
Table 62 - Kordia - financial data - 2010 - 2012
Table 63 - M2: financial data and annual change - 2008 - 2010
Exhibit 1 - Comparison of Vodafone’s 3G mobile networks
Exhibit 2 - Comparison of New Zealand’s mobile networks
Exhibit 3 - Managed Spectrum Park applicants and requested TLA areas - 2009
Exhibit 4 - Regulatory timeline - scheduled UBA and other services launch by service variant
Exhibit 5 - Understanding wholesale bitstream offers around the world
Exhibit 6 - UCLL connections - 2008 - 2009
Exhibit 7 - Chart of mobile numbers ported - 2007 - 2009
Exhibit 8 - Chart of local numbers ported - 2007 - 2009
Exhibit 9 - Telecom Corporation New Zealand at a glance
Exhibit 10 - Subsidiary companies
Exhibit 11 - Associate companies
Exhibit 12 - Vodafone New Zealand Ltd at a glance
Exhibit 13 - TelstraClear Ltd at a glance
Exhibit 14 - TelstraClear’s unbundled exchanges - 2009
Exhibit 15 - Kordia at a glance
Exhibit 16 - Kordia overview of financial data - 2006 - 2009

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