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Mobile Communications - Statistics and Forecasts -Australia

  • EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
  • THE MARKET IN 2014
    • INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
      • Background information
      • Subscriber statistics
        • Table Mobile market subscribers, penetration rate and annual change - 2010 - 2014
        • Table Total mobile services market revenue and annual change - 2010 - 2014
      • Mobile coverage remains major problem for the region
      • Rural Australia in favour of NBN mobile services
      • Consumer rip-off stops with new Telecommunications Consumer Protection Code
      • Mobile calling plan standardisation a start to a clearer choice
      • Roaming
      • NBN as backhaul
      • Mobile technology boost productivity
    • MOBILE NETWORK OPERATORS (MNOS)
      • Telstra
      • SingTel Optus
        • Table Optus revenue - 2012 - 2014
      • Vodafone Hutchison Australia (VHA)
    • NETWORK TECHNOLOGIES
      • HSPA-based services
      • Long-term Evolution (LTE)
    • 2G services (historic)
    • MOBILE VIRTUAL NETWORK OPERATORS (MVNOS)
      • Background on the MVNO sector
      • Market overview
        • Table Mobile carriers and selected MVNOs - 2014
      • Other developments in the MVNO market
      • Amaysim
        • Table Amaysim at a glance
      • Red Bull Mobile
      • Kogan Mobile
      • Aldi Mobile
      • Lebara Mobile
      • Macquarie Telecom
      • Virgin Mobile
      • Woolworths Mobile
    • MOBILE RESELLERS
      • Background information
        • Table Mobile carriers and selected resellers and MVNEs
      • Resellers on the Telstra network
      • Resellers on the Optus network
      • Resellers on the Vodafone network
    • MOBILE VIRTUAL NETWORK ENABLERS (MVNES)
      • Background information
      • Pivotel
        • Table Pivotel Communications Pty Limited at a glance
        • Table Pivotel Globalstar satellite data costs - July 2014
      • M2 Telecommunications Group (separate report)
  • REVENUE OVERVIEW AND STATISTICS
    • STATISTICAL SOURCES
    • TOTAL MOBILE SERVICES REVENUE AND FORECASTS
      • Overview of current year
      • Moving into 2015
        • Table Historic - Total mobile services market revenue and annual change - 1993 - 2004
        • Table Total mobile services market revenue and annual change - 2005 - 2014
    • OPERATOR REVENUE STATISTICS OVERVIEW
      • Background
      • Revenue per major operator
        • Table Telstra mobile services revenue - 2009 - 2014
        • Table Vodafone Australia revenue - 2009 - 2013
        • Table Optus key financial indicators - 2009 - 2014
        • Table Optus mobile service revenue - 2013 - 2014
        • Table Historic - Mobile market revenue per major operator - 1993 - 2004
        • Table Mobile market revenue per major operator - 2005 - 2014
      • Revenue trends
        • Table Historic - Annual change of mobile market revenue per major operator - 1994; 1997; 2000 - 2004
        • Table Annual change of mobile market revenue per major operator - 2005 - 2014
      • Revenue share
        • Table Annual change of mobile market share per major operator - 2000 - 2014
      • Revenue by service
        • Table Estimated mobile service revenue by service, proportion of total - 2007 - 2014
        • Table Total mobile voice revenue per major operator - 2007 - 2014
        • Table Mobile voice revenue as a proportion of total mobile services revenue - 2007 - 2015
        • Table Mobile data revenue per major operator - 2007 - 2014
        • Table Annual change in data revenue per major operator as a proportion of total mobile services revenue - 2008 - 2012
    • AVERAGE REVENUE PER USER (ARPU)
      • Overview of ARPU
      • Blended ARPU
        • Table Blended monthly ARPU by MNO - 2000 - 2014
        • Table Annual change in blended monthly ARPU by MNO - 2004 - 2014
      • Historic ARPU statistics
        • Table Postpaid ARPU per month - Telstra, Optus and Vodafone - 2004 - 2014
  • SUBSCRIBER STATISTICS
    • STATISTICAL SOURCES
    • MOBILE SUBSCRIBER STATISTICS
      • Total subscribers and annual growth rates
        • Table Mobile market subscribers, penetration rate and annual change - 2000 - 2014
      • Operator market shares and growth
        • Table Historic - Mobile subscribers by carrier - 1993; 1997; 2000 - 2004
        • Table Mobile subscribers by carrier - 2005 - 2014
        • Table Historic - Annual change of mobile subscribers by carrier - 1995; 1997; 2000 - 2004
        • Table Annual change of mobile subscribers by carrier - 2005 - 2014
        • Table Historic - Mobile subscriber market share by carrier - 1993; 1997; 2000 - 2004
        • Table Mobile subscriber market share by carrier - 2010 - 2014
      • 2G, 3G and 4G subscribers
        • Table 3G mobile subscribers by carrier - 2003 - 2013
        • Table Annual change of 3G mobile subscribers by carrier - 2007 - 2013
        • Table Proportion of 3G mobile subscribers versus total subscribers by carrier - 2006 - 2013
        • Table 2G mobile subscribers by carrier - 2006 - 2013
        • Table Annual change of 2G mobile subscribers by carrier - 2006 - 2013
      • Prepaid and postpaid subscribers by operator
        • Table Prepaid subscribers by mobile network operator - 2008 - 2014
        • Table Number of mobile phone services in operation - prepaid and postpaid - 2006 - 2014
      • Wholesale market
        • Table Wholesale subscribers - Telstra versus Optus - 2006 - 2013
  • RETAIL MARKET
    • AN OVERVIEW OF THE MOBILE RETAIL MARKET
      • Major retail categories
      • Retail margins
      • Retail revenues
      • Consolidation
      • The move from prepaid to postpaid
      • Mobile broadband (separate report)
      • Superior customer care to come from a new TCP Code
      • Mobile calling plan standardisation a start to a clearer choice
      • Replacement market
        • Table Selected retailers - number of outlets by state
      • Wholesale aggregators
        • Table The wholesale market in Australia - key players - 2014
    • MAJOR MOBILE RETAIL COMPANIES
      • Background information
      • Vertically integrated operators
      • Independents retailing services exclusively for mobile operators
      • Independents retailing services for a variety of network operators
  • 3G AND 4G INFRASTRUCTURE
    • BACKGROUND INFORMATION
    • NETWORK OPERATORS
      • Telstra
      • Optus
      • VHA
    • MOBILE SITES INFRASTRUCTURE
      • Overview and statistics
        • Table Mobile base stations - 2009; 2011 - 2012
      • Crown Castle
        • Table Crown Castle mobile tower acquisitions - 2000 - 2012
    • INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS
      • Structural separation and open networks
      • Squeezed out of the content markets
      • Mobile broadband market
    • LONG-TERM EVOLUTION (LTE) (SEPARATE REPORT)
  • SPECTRUM OVERVIEW
    • OVERVIEW
    • SPECTRUM REGULATIONS
      • Background information
      • Australian Radiofrequency Plan
    • ACMA FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK - 2012 - 2016
      • Spectrum demand overview
        • Table 700MHz reallocation - 2011 - 2014
        • Table Proposed 2.5GHz reallocation - 2011 - 2016
      • Towards 2020 - Future spectrum requirements
      • Regulatory issues
      • Fifteen-year spectrum licence pathway
      • ACMA takes steps to improve spectrum trading arrangements
    • SPECTRUM-BASED SERVICES
      • Background information
      • Mobile services
      • WiMAX wireless services
      • Ultra-Wideband services (UWB)
        • Table Allocations for wireless access services (WAS) - 2009
      • New broadband wireless technology
    • SPECTRUM OWNERSHIP AND LICENCES
      • Mobile spectrum
        • Table Mobile spectrum by operator in capital city and regional area
        • Table GSM services by operator
        • Table WCDMA services by operator
        • Table Ownership of selected frequencies for 2.3GHz and 3.4GHz services - 2014
      • Apparatus licences
      • Unlicensed spectrum (IMS)
  • SPECTRUM AUCTIONS
    • MOBILE SPECTRUM AUCTIONS
      • Introduction
      • Digital dividend auction - 2013
        • Table An overview of the digital dividend auction timeline - 2010 - 2015
        • Table 700MHz and 2.5GHz auction results - 2013
      • 500MHz frequency
        • Table The 500MHz spectrum licences - 1997
      • 800MHz and 1.8GHz frequencies
        • Table Spectrum charges for spectrum bandwidth licenses expiring in 2013
        • Table Auction results
        • Table Final 1.8GHz spectrum auction results
      • 1880-1920MHz (1.9GHz) frequency
        • Table The 1900-1920MHzGHz spectrum auction results
      • 2010-2025MHz frequencies
      • 2.3GHz band
        • Table The 2.3GHz spectrum auction results - 2011
      • Unused 2GHz spectrum
      • 3.4GHz frequencies
        • Table Final 3.4GHz - October 2000
      • 3G Auctions
        • Table 3G auction results per bidder - 2001
  • SMARTPHONES, TABLETS AND HANDSET MARKET
    • MARKET OVERVIEW
      • Trends in mobile handset market
        • Table Smartphone ownership by age group - 2013
      • 4G market continues to grow
      • Telstra's T-Hub 2 - moving fixed-line customers to the future NBN
    • PREDICTIONS INTO 2014 AND BEYOND
      • Smartphone data usage increasing
        • Table Internet connections via mobile handsets - 2009 - 2013
      • Tablets and e-readers
    • SMARTPHONE, TABLET AND HANDSET STATISTICS
      • Shipments
        • Table Australian handset shipments (historic) - 2004 - 2008
        • Table Australian handset shipments - 2009 - 2014
      • Handset recycling
        • Table Key recycling indicators - Mobile Muster - 2006 - 2013
      • Handset supplier market shares
        • Table Australian handset brand market share - major suppliers - 2008 - 2013
        • Table Australian 3G handset market (historic) - by major operator - 2008 - 2010
        • Table Use of advanced phone features - % of mobile user accesses of rich media/smartphone features - 2013
      • Smartphones and internet usage
        • Table Top 5 uses of mobile internet - 2009 - 2013
      • Tablet sales thriving
        • Table Estimated tablet users - 2010 - 2012; 2015 - 2016
    • ANALYSIS
      • Mobile vendors set to lose the proprietary battle
      • Mid-tier mobile phones to decline
        • Table Low-end, mid-tier and high-end mobile device markets - percentage of units sold - 2007; 2013.
    • MARKET SURVEYS
      • Overview
      • Smartphones outgrow mobile market
      • Smartphones lead to higher data spend
        • Table Apps info and payment plan data - 2009 - 2013
        • Table Monthly phone spend on services - 2010 - 2013
        • Table Types of use on smartphones - 2012 - 2013
        • Table Smartphone app use by age group - 2013
      • Smartphone users are action buyers
      • Tablet usage increasing
        • Table Typical selected usage pattern of a tablet user - 2012 - 2013
      • Android remains the favoured operating system
        • Table Estimated Australian platform market share - 2008 - 2014
    • THE FUTURE OF THE SMARTPHONE MARKET
      • Hardware becomes a utility platform
      • Platform for innovation and industry transformation
      • Breaking into new markets
      • Who will dominate the WiFi market?
      • Conclusion
  • MOBILE SATELLITE SERVICES
    • Introduction
      • Second generation satellites with Globalstar to benefit rural Australians
      • Twitter on satellite phones
    • PUBLIC SUBSIDIES AND REGULATION
      • Overview
      • Mobile satellite service band plan
      • Mobile satellite phone subsidies
    • OVERVIEW OF OPERATORS
      • Telstra
      • Optus
      • Pivotal Group
        • Table Pivotel Communications Pty Limited at a glance
        • Table Pivotel Globalstar satellite data costs - July 2014
      • VIX QuikTrak
      • AST Australia
      • Addcom
      • Indigo Telecom
      • FedSat - Australia's low earth orbit satellite (historic)
    • USAGE AND REVENUE ESTIMATES
      • Background information
        • Table Estimate mobile satellite users - 2007 - 2014
      • Revenue
        • Table Optus satellite revenue - 2007 - 2014

Australia - Mobile Communications - Statistics and Forecasts

Focus for investment among MNOs shifts to supporting high-end mobile data services

This report provides data and analyses on Australia’s developing mobile market. It covers a wide range of subjects including a core overview of the market, an overview of operators’ subscriber statistics and revenue, and an assessment of spectrum usage, particularly in the light of recent auctions. The report also assesses the fast developing smartphone market and the implications which the promotion of new and cheaper devices is having on the retail sector. Developments in 3G network infrastructure and in mobile satellite networks are also covered.

Network operator strategies fixed on LTE to maintain revenue from mobile data services

The major mobile network operators – Telstra, Optus, and Vodafone – are capitalising on consumer use of mobile broadband which has taken off during the last few years. The trend will continue as a result of the cyclical introduction of a widening range of affordable devices, as well as the growing footprint of LTE networks which should cover 98% of the population (from two MNOs at least) by the end of 2016.

Subscriber growth maintained...

The number of mobile subscribers continues to grow steadily, with mobile penetration reaching 135% by mid-2014. Continued growth, though slower than in former years, will be maintained by the significant proportion of subscribers who make use of multiple phones or SIM cards, compounded by a steady increase in the population. Operators can also expect to benefit from further migration among consumers from fixed-line to mobile telecoms. While growth is likely to continue in the next few years as subscribers take to smartphones, this will slow in line with higher penetration, being about 2% into 2015.

Telstra remains the market leader with about 16 million subscribers in mid-2014, while Optus had around 9.4 million. Vodafone has continued to see a decline in subscriber numbers, to 4.96 by March 2014, though since late 2013 losses have been significantly lower than was seen in 2012 and early 2013.

... though continuing pressure on revenue

Overall mobile services revenue among MNOs continues to come under competitive pressure. Telstra and Optus into 2015 will be better placed to capitalise on their 700MHz concessions, and so further develop their LTE subscriber base and revenue derived from mobile data services, while Vodafone will remain under strain as a result of continuing subscriber losses and the failure of the operator to compete for this valuable spectrum asset. Compounding these pressures is the recent decision by the ACCC to regulate the pricing of wholesale SMS tariffs.

BuddeComm expects that revenue from MNOs will be flat in 2015. Future revenue growth will be impacted by continuing activity from a number of the larger MVNOs, as some of the smaller failed operators are removed from the market.

For the MNOs, the latest results are mixed, with only Telstra (to December 2013) among the three operators having reported revenue growth. Optus reported a 5.7% fall in mobile revenue in FY2014, while VHA continued to experience steep revenue declines on the back of customer disaffection with service offerings.

Spectrum assets a key to future service offerings

Following a dormant period between 2007 and 2011, a number of significant auctions have since been held, particularly in the 2.3GHz and 2GHz bands for regional and rural areas. The auction of digital dividend spectrum in 2013 will enable mobile operators, chiefly Optus and Telstra, to make use of their 700MHz concessions when these become available in early 2015

Mobile infrastructure gearing from 3G to 4G

The three MNOs began building their 3G networks in earnest in the mid-2000s, resulting in the rapid take-up of 3G among consumers as they migrated from 2G networks. This development is now being reported with the transition from 3G to 4G/LTE. The near comprehensive reach of LTE expected by the end of 2016 will see a growing proportion of subscribers using LTE-based services. This will be facilitated by competitive pressure for operators not to charge a premium for LTE connectivity, a trend which has been seen in many markets globally.

Improved infrastructure going hand-in-hand with the growing smartphone and tablet market

Smartphone use in Australia continues to grow among consumers. There has also been a change in the popularity of certain handsets, with a marked shift towards Android based-phones at the expense of Apple iOS. This has largely resulted from the greater number of manufacturers and styles for the Android platform, thus providing a wide range of pricing points.

Smartphones and tablets are increasingly being used to access the internet. These devices account for a growing proportion of data accessed via the mobile and WiFi environments. Smartphone penetration reached about 90% by mid-2014, while surveys have shown that about 60% of respondents have a tablet. These figures will increase steadily into 2015 as a greater number of competitively priced units hit the market, and as the reach of LTE networks widen

Key developments:

Analysis on mobile user productivity; MVNO market receives shakeup with the collapse of smaller operators; tablet penetration approaches 60%; Australian police forces adopts tablets on the beat; Police Federation continues to lobby for use of 20MHz in the 700MHz band; Vodafone continuing to lose subscribers despite improved network performance; includes market developments to mid-2014; telcos’ financial and operating updates to March 2014; market developments to mid-2014.

Companies covered in this report include:

Optus, Telstra, Mobile Muster, Motorola, Apple, Nokia, BlackBerry, HTC, Google, Sony Ericsson, Samsung, Vodafone, 3, Amaysim, Woolworths, Crazy John’s, JB HiFi, NBN Co, Virgin Mobile, Aldi Mobile; Huawei, Lebara, AAPT, Kogan Mobile, GRLmobile, Red Bull Mobile, Macquarie Telecom, Boost Tel, Pivotel, Globalstar, AUSTAR, Walker Wireless, ActewAGL

Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year


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