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Latin American Telecom Market Forecasts


Attention: There is an updated edition available for this report.

BuddeComm’s annual publication, Latin American Telecom Market Forecasts, provides scenario forecasts for the years 2008, 2013, 2015 and 2018, addressing the major fixed-line, mobile, and broadband markets of Latin America and the Caribbean. The countries covered in the report include: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Puerto Rico and Venezuela.


Telecoms services have become an increasingly essential item not only for businesses but also for residential consumers in Latin America. Therefore, demand should not collapse in 2009 despite the recession. Telecom revenues should continue to grow in most countries, driven by mobile telephony and broadband, but growth rates will be quite small compared with previous years.  

The services worst affected by the economic slowdown are likely to be those that provide entertainment, such as pay TV, digital media, and non-corporate mobile data services. Also, equipment renewal will suffer, because although corporate and residential users are not going to stop using their cell phones and computers, they will wait for the economic crisis to lift before they spend money on upgrades.  

The fixed-line market is likely to remain in its present stagnant condition. In some of the major economies, mobile telephony operators may need to seek additional revenues from SMS and low-cost value added services rather than from new subscriptions, the market being close to saturation.  

Broadband development may require governmental and regulatory efforts, particularly with a view to public wellbeing such as e-health, e-education, e-government, and other social services. Universalisation projects, however, could be paralysed by fund shortages, unless they are included in the governments’ anti-crisis measures.  

Forecast mobile subscribers - higher growth scenario in Brazil - 2008; 2013; 2018 Year | Subscribers (million) | Penetration | 2008 | 148.81 | 77.1% | 2013 | 207.37 | 101.1% | 2018 | 235.28 | 108.9% | | (Source: BuddeComm, forecasts)  

Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year.  

The following notes provide some background to our scenario forecasting methodology:

  •     This report includes what we term scenario forecasts. By describing long-range scenarios we identify a band within which we expect market growth to occur. The associated text describes what we see as the most likely growth trend within this band.
  •     The projections shown in the tables in this report are based on our own historical information, as well as on telecommunication sector statistics from official and non-official, national and international sources. We assume a possible deviation of 15-20% around this data.
  •     All statistics for GDP, revenue, etc are shown in US$, in order to maintain consistency within and between markets. At the same time we acknowledge that this can introduce some irregularities.

1. Argentina
1.1 Overview
1.2 Forecasts - fixed-line market to 2018
1.2.1 Scenario 1 - higher fixed-line growth
1.2.2 Scenario 2 - lower fixed-line growth
1.3 Forecasts - broadband market to 2018
1.3.1 Scenario 1 - higher broadband growth
1.3.2 Scenario 2 - lower broadband growth
1.4 Forecasts - mobile market to 2018
1.4.1 Scenario 1 - higher mobile market growth
1.4.2 Scenario 2 - lower mobile market growth
2. Brazil
2.1 Overview
2.2 Forecasts - fixed-line market to 2018
2.3 Forecasts - broadband market to 2018
2.4 Forecasts - mobile market to 2018
3. Chile
3.1 Overview
3.2 Forecasts - fixed-line market to 2018
3.3 Forecasts - broadband market to 2018
3.4 Forecasts - mobile market to 2018
4. Colombia
4.1 Overview
4.2 Forecasts - fixed-line market to 2018
4.2.1 Scenario 1 - higher fixed-line growth
4.2.2 Scenario 2 - lower fixed-line growth
4.3 Forecasts - broadband market to 2018
4.3.1 Scenario 1 - higher broadband growth
4.3.2 Scenario 2 - lower broadband growth
4.4 Forecasts - mobile market to 2018
4.4.1 Scenario 1 - higher mobile market growth
4.4.2 Scenario 2 - lower mobile market growth
5. Dominican Republic
5.1 Forecast broadband subscribers
5.2 Forecast cellular subscribers
6. Mexico
6.1 Overview
6.2 Forecasts - fixed-line market to 2015
6.3 Forecasts - broadband market to 2015
6.4 Forecasts - mobile market to 2015
7. Panama
7.1 Forecasts - fixed-line market to 2018
7.1.1 Scenario 1 - higher fixed-line growth
7.1.2 Scenario 2 - lower fixed-line growth
7.2 Forecasts - mobile market to 2018
7.2.1 Scenario 1 - higher mobile market growth
7.2.2 Scenario 2 - lower mobile market growth
8. Peru
8.1 Forecasts - fixed-line market to 2018
8.1.1 Scenario 1 - higher fixed-line growth
8.1.2 Scenario 2 - lower fixed-line growth
8.2 Forecasts - broadband market to 2018
8.2.1 Scenario 1 - higher broadband growth
8.2.2 Scenario 2 - lower broadband growth
8.3 Forecasts - mobile market to 2018
8.3.1 Scenario 1 - higher mobile market growth
8.3.2 Scenario 2 - lower mobile market growth
9. Puerto Rico
9.1 Forecasts - mobile market to 2015
10. Venezuela
10.1 Overview
10.2 Forecasts - fixed-line market to 2018
10.2.1 Scenario 1 - higher fixed-line growth
10.2.2 Scenario 2 - lower fixed-line growth
10.3 Forecasts - broadband market to 2018
10.3.1 Scenario 1 - higher broadband growth
10.3.2 Scenario 2 - lower broadband growth
10.4 Forecasts - mobile market to 2018
10.4.1 Scenario 1 - higher mobile market growth
10.4.2 Scenario 2 - lower mobile market growth
11. Glossary of Abbreviations
Table 1 - Forecast fixed-line subscribers - higher growth scenario in Argentina - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 2 - Forecast fixed-line subscribers - lower growth scenario in Argentina - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 3 - Forecast broadband subscribers - higher growth scenario in Argentina - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 4 - Forecast broadband subscribers - lower growth scenario in Argentina - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 5 - Forecast mobile subscribers - higher growth scenario in Argentina - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 6 - Forecast mobile subscribers - lower growth scenario in Argentina - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 7 - Forecast fixed-line subscribers & teledensity - lower growth scenario in Brazil - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 8 - Forecast fixed-line subscribers & teledensity - higher growth scenario in Brazil - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 9 - Forecast broadband subscribers & penetration - lower growth scenario in Brazil - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 10 - Forecast broadband s subscribers & penetration - higher growth scenario in Brazil - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 11 - Forecast mobile subscribers - lower growth scenario in Brazil - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 12 - Forecast mobile subscribers - higher growth scenario in Brazil - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 13 - Forecast fixed-line subscribers & teledensity - lower growth scenario in Chile - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 14 - Forecast fixed-line subscribers & teledensity - higher growth scenario in Chile - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 15 - Forecast broadband subscribers & penetration - lower growth scenario in Chile - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 16 - Forecast broadband subscribers & penetration - higher growth scenario in Chile - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 17 - Forecast mobile subscribers & penetration rate - lower growth scenario in Chile - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 18 - Forecast mobile subscribers & penetration rate - higher growth scenario in Chile - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 19 - Forecast fixed-line subscribers & teledensity - higher growth scenario in Colombia - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 20 - Forecast fixed line subscribers & teledensity - lower growth scenario in Colombia - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 21 - Forecast broadband subscribers & penetration - higher growth scenario in Colombia - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 22 - Forecast broadband subscribers & penetration - lower growth scenario in Colombia - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 23 - Forecast mobile subscribers & penetration - higher growth scenario in Colombia - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 24 - Forecast mobile subscribers & penetration - lower growth scenario in Colombia - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 25 - Forecast broadband subscribers in the Dominican Republic - 2009 - 2013
Table 26 - Forecast cellular subscribers - lower growth scenario in the Dominican Republic - 2009 - 2013
Table 27 - Forecast cellular subscribers - higher market scenario in the Dominican Republic - 2009 - 2013
Table 28 - Forecast fixed-line subscribers - lower growth scenario in Mexico - 2010; 2015
Table 29 - Forecast fixed-line subscribers - higher growth scenario in Mexico - 2010; 2015
Table 30 - Forecast broadband subscribers - lower growth scenario in Mexico - 2010; 2015
Table 31 - Forecast broadband subscribers - higher growth scenario in Mexico - 2010; 2015
Table 32 - Forecast mobile subscribers - lower growth scenario in Mexico - 2010; 2015
Table 33 - Forecast mobile subscribers - upper growth scenario in Mexico - 2010; 2015
Table 34 - Forecast fixed-line subscribers - higher growth scenario in Panama - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 35 - Forecast fixed-line subscribers - lower growth scenario in Panama - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 36 - Forecast mobile subscribers - higher growth scenario in Panama - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 37 - Forecast mobile subscribers - lower growth scenario in Panama - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 38 - Forecast fixed-line subscribers - higher growth scenario in Peru - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 39 - Forecast fixed-line subscribers - lower growth scenario in Peru - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 40 - Forecast broadband subscribers - higher growth scenario in Peru - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 41 - Forecast broadband subscribers - lower growth scenario in Peru - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 42 - Forecast mobile subscribers - higher growth scenario in Peru - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 43 - Forecast mobile subscribers - lower growth scenario in Peru - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 44 - Forecast mobile subscribers - lower growth scenario in Puerto Rico - 2010; 2015
Table 45 - Forecast mobile subscribers - higher growth scenario in Puerto Rico - 2010; 2015
Table 46 - Forecast fixed-line subscribers - higher growth scenario in Venezuela - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 47 - Forecast fixed-line subscribers - lower growth scenario in Venezuela - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 48 - Forecast broadband subscribers - higher growth scenario in Venezuela - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 49 - Forecast broadband subscribers - lower growth scenario in Venezuela - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 50 - Forecast mobile subscribers - higher growth scenario in Venezuela - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 51 - Forecast mobile subscribers - lower growth scenario in Venezuela - 2008; 2013; 2018

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