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2008 Global Telecoms - Key Trends and Statistics

This annual report offers a wealth of information on the trends and developments taking place in the worldwide telecoms sector. The report provides analyses of the issues surrounding the communications revolution, with a focus on the digital economy, structural separation and next generation telecoms. Information on submarine cable and fibre developments is provided as well as an overview of the global telecoms outsourcing market. Comprehensive information on the exciting developments taking place in the mobility sector is included along with statistics and forecasts for both the mobile and wireless broadband sectors. This report also provides a valuable summary of key global telecoms market statistics including subscribers to both fixed and mobile technologies, top carriers worldwide and global telecoms capital expenditure and revenues.

Subjects covered include:

  • The communications revolution;
  • The digital economy;
  • Next Generation Telecoms;
  • Structural separation including selected case studies;
  • Fibre developments including analyses of regulatory environment;
  • Submarine cable developments;
  • Key broadband statistics;
  • Key wireless broadband statistics and analyses;
  • Key mobile and mobile data statistics and analyses;
  • Summary of key global telecoms market statistics including capital expenditure and revenues.


1. GLOBAL TELECOMS: KEY TRENDS
1.1 Next generation telecoms and digital economy
1.1.1 From broadband to Next Generation Telecoms (NGT)
1.1.2 The many aspects of broadband infrastructure
1.1.2.1 Next Generation Networks (NGNs)
1.1.2.2 Broadband equals healthcare infrastructure
1.1.2.3 Broadband equals utility infrastructure
1.1.2.4 Broadband equals education infrastructure
1.1.2.5 Broadband equals media and e-business infrastructure
1.1.2.6 Broadband equals lifestyle infrastructure
1.1.3 Conclusions
1.2 Structural separation
1.2.1 Real solution is structural separation
1.2.1.1 Financial world getting on board
1.2.1.2 Needed to grow the Internet economy
1.2.1.3 Historical overview
1.2.2 The great separation debate
1.2.2.1 Why do it?
1.2.2.2 Unleashing untapped values
1.2.3 Key regulatory trends
1.2.3.1 Deregulation has not delivered competition (yet)
1.2.3.2 Too much regulation?
1.2.3.3 Unavoidable: structural separation
1.2.4 The private equity angle
1.2.4.1 Background
1.2.4.2 The investors’ perspective
1.2.4.3 Reality of triple play/quadruple play models
1.2.5 Case studies
1.2.5.1 Europe
1.2.5.1.1 Ireland
1.2.5.1.1.1 Been there before
1.2.5.1.1.2 Second time around
1.2.5.1.1.3 Political pressure to separate
1.2.5.1.1.4 Developments in 2008
1.2.5.1.2 Denmark
1.2.5.2 Government push
1.2.5.2.1 Italy
1.2.5.2.1.1 Telecom Italia − first back-track
1.2.5.2.1.2 Telecom Italia − second back-track
1.2.5.2.1.3 Functional separation
1.2.5.2.1.4 Company sale
1.2.5.3 Regulatory push
1.2.5.3.1 UK
1.2.5.3.1.1 BT’s structural separation
1.2.5.3.1.2 Openreach
1.2.5.3.1.3 BT − a success story
1.2.5.3.2 Sweden
1.2.5.3.3 Poland
1.2.5.3.4 Portugal
1.2.5.3.5 The Netherlands
1.2.5.4 Disaster-driven
1.2.5.4.1 Germany
1.2.5.4.1.1 DT’s structural review
1.2.5.4.1.2 Regulator pressure
1.2.5.5 Hong Kong/PCCW
1.2.5.5.1 Background
1.2.5.5.2 PCCW: private equity investment
1.2.5.6 Singapore: Next Generation National Infocomm Infrastructure (Next Gen NII)
1.2.5.7 Australia/New Zealand
1.2.5.7.1 Analysis - structural changes: no pain no gain
1.2.6 From vertical integration to functional organisations
1.2.7 Functional telco business model from ITU
1.2.7.1 Mediocre telcos
1.2.7.2 The Internet model
1.2.7.3 Infrastructure dynamics
1.3 The communication revolution
1.3.1 The communications revolution
1.3.2 Build and they will come
1.3.2.1 The importance of infrastructure
1.3.2.2 Long-term policies and investment strategies
1.3.2.3 Installation period - build and they will come
1.3.2.4 Transition period - great upheaval
1.3.2.5 Deployment period - reaping the rewards
1.3.3 The communications revolution
1.3.3.1 Subset of the ICT cycle
1.3.3.2 Transition started with dotcom bust
1.3.3.3 Global implications
1.3.3.4 Dirt-cheap broadband
1.3.4 Nanotechnology - towards 2050
1.3.5 BuddeComm conclusions and recommendations
1.3.5.1 Investors
1.3.5.2 For business entrepreneurs
1.3.5.3 For telco operators, service and content providers
1.3.5.4 For governments
2. GLOBAL TELECOMS: KEY STATISTICS
2.1 Global telecoms market statistics and forecasts
2.1.1 Global telecoms statistics at a glance
2.1.1.1 Mobile subscribers
2.1.1.2 Wireless broadband subscribers
2.1.1.3 Internet users
2.1.1.3.1 Broadband subscribers
2.1.2 Top carriers worldwide
2.1.2.1 Top carriers in emerging markets
2.1.3 Global telecommunications capital expenditure & revenues
3. TELECOMS INFRASTRUCTURE
3.1 Next generation telecoms analyses
3.1.1 Nextgen telcos - analysis
3.1.1.1 Changing telecoms into IT
3.1.1.1.1 The new companies
3.1.2 IP and Next Generation Networks (NGN)
3.1.2.1 IP - enhanced services
3.1.2.2 IP beyond VoIP
3.1.3 Virtual Private LAN Service (VPLS)
3.1.3.1 VPLS
3.1.3.2 VPLS essential in Internet economy
3.1.3.3 VPLS benefits for corporate users
3.1.4 Fibre and next generation telecoms
3.1.4.1 From telecommunications to information highway
3.1.4.2 Low-hanging FttH fruit
3.1.5 Wireless NGN
3.1.5.1 Next Generation Mobile (NGM)
3.1.5.2 WiMAX a boon for developing markets
3.1.5.3 Growth of IMS/LTE NGNs
3.1.6 Brief case studies
3.1.6.1 Asia
3.1.6.2 Europe
3.1.6.3 Africa
3.1.6.4 Chile
3.1.6.5 Middle East
3.1.7 Unified Communications (UC)
3.1.7.1 Economic issues driving UC
3.1.7.2 A new dawn for UC - analysis
3.1.8 Conclusion: end-to-end connectivity for national NGNs
3.1.8.1 Essential for health, education and energy services
3.1.8.2 Whole-of-government approach is needed
3.1.8.3 Regulatory frameworks are failing
3.1.8.4 National benefits are astounding
3.1.8.5 Recommendations
3.2 Submarine cables
3.2.1 Introduction
3.2.2 2008: the revival continues
3.2.3 Historical overview
3.2.3.1 2007: India led the charge
3.2.3.2 2006: Taiwan earthquake
3.2.3.3 2005: signs of expansion
3.2.3.4 2002 - 2004: the years in between
3.2.3.5 1998 - 2001: boom years
3.2.4 Boom/bust cycle starting up again - brief analysis
3.2.5 Demand for bandwidth grows
3.2.6 Construction costs overview
3.3 Telecoms outsourcing
3.3.1 Historical overview
3.3.2 Outsourcing
3.3.2.1 Outsourcing, cosourcing, insourcing, tasksourcing
3.3.3 Managed Network Services (MNS)
3.3.4 Recent trends and developments
3.3.4.1 Global managed services partnership between Alcatel-Lucent and Reliance
3.3.4.2 Horizontal outsourcing models are the way of the future
3.3.4.3 Mobile network outsourcing growing
3.3.4.4 Multi-sourcing back in favour
3.3.4.5 IP Centrex or VoIP outsourcing - the battle for the SME market
3.3.5 Outsourcing market statistics
4. BROADBAND MARKET
4.1 Broadband statistics and forecasts
4.1.1 Broadband statistics and forecasts
4.1.1.1 Leaders in old and new broadband
4.1.1.2 Broadband subscribers by access technology
4.1.1.3 Broadband pricing
4.1.1.4 Broadband speeds
4.1.1.4.1 Towards 2015
4.1.1.5 Broadband revenues
4.1.1.5.1 Long-term broadband revenue trends - 2010 - 2015
4.2 Regulating fibre access
4.2.1 Introduction: FttH deployment overview
4.2.2 FttH drivers
4.2.2.1 National economy drivers
4.2.2.2 Social drivers
4.2.2.3 Entertainment drivers
4.2.2.4 Business drivers
4.2.2.5 No e-government without fibre
4.2.2.6 ‘Go with the flow’ strategies
4.2.3 Case study: Europe
4.2.3.1 The need for fibre
4.2.3.1.1 Arguments for fibre
4.2.3.1.2 Supporting the triple play market
4.2.3.2 Regulating access
4.2.3.3 The EC’s strategy
4.2.3.3.1 Regulating municipalities
4.2.3.3.2 Regulating incumbents
4.2.4 FttH business models
4.2.4.1 Vertically integrated model
4.2.4.2 Open access/network model
4.2.5 Structural separation
4.2.5.1 Structural separation a must for FttH
4.2.5.2 Europe
4.2.5.2.1 Fibre networks
4.2.5.2.2 Regulating access
4.2.6 Examples of open access
4.2.6.1 France
4.2.6.2 Sweden
4.2.6.3 The Netherlands
4.2.6.4 Oceania
4.2.6.5 Singapore
5. WIRELESS BROADBAND MARKET
5.1 Next generation mobility
5.1.1 Introduction: Next Generation Mobile (NGM)
5.1.1.1 Ultra Mobile Broadband (UMB)
5.1.2 Analysis 2008
5.1.2.1 The ongoing promise of 3G
5.1.2.2 Flawed mobile data business models
5.1.2.3 The power of the mobile operators
5.1.2.4 The contenders: WiMAX and LTE
5.1.3 Personal wireless broadband
5.1.3.1 Business models more important than technologies
5.1.4 Key developments
5.1.4.1 Next Generation Mobile Network (NGMN) Alliance
5.1.4.2 Spectrum developments
5.1.4.2.1 New technologies will lead a push for spectrum to be opened up
5.1.4.2.2 Wireless broadband requires new spectrum ideas
5.1.4.3 802.20 standard approved
5.1.4.4 South Korea’s WiBro
5.1.5 Wireless broadband statistics and forecasts
5.1.6 Conclusion
6. MOBILE MARKET
6.1 Mobile market analysis
6.1.1 Introduction
6.1.2 The start of the mobile revolution?
6.1.2.1 Voice still the killer app
6.1.3 Mobile industry reluctantly embracing the new world
6.1.4 Data is the future
6.1.4.1 Rebalancing of the industry
6.1.4.2 Devices-driven developments
6.1.4.3 Only option in developing countries
6.1.5 All roads lead to 4G
6.2 Mobile statistics and forecasts
6.2.1 Subscriber growth
6.2.1.1 Historical growth (1996-2002)
6.2.1.2 Subscriber growth differs around the world (2003-2008)
6.2.2 2007-2008 published statistics and forecasts
6.3 Mobile data overview and analysis
6.3.1 Introduction
6.3.2 Service evolution from 3G to 4G
6.3.3 BlackBerry
6.3.3.1 EV-DO: successful for business mobile data
6.3.3.2 Future will move away from BlackBerry
6.3.4 Mobile data growth
6.3.4.1 The demand is there
6.3.4.2 Value of mobile data market - 2008
6.3.4.2.1 Mobile data ARPU
6.3.4.3 Could bundled pricing increase ARPU?
6.3.5 Key developments - 2008
6.3.5.1 Google reveals Android prototype
6.3.5.2 Mobile data card market quadrupling
6.3.5.3 Mobile triple and quadruple play
6.3.5.4 Femtocells
6.3.5.5 The end of the mobile handset, or not?
6.3.5.6 Mobile operators under threat
6.3.5.6.1 Manufacturers supporting bypass solutions
6.3.5.6.2 Apple and Google - also hijacking the mobile operators
6.3.5.7 Mobile marketing remains a furphy
Table number:
Table 1 - Worldwide telecom statistics at a glance - mid-2008
Table 2 - Worldwide growth of GSM market - 1994 - 2008
Table 3 - Worldwide 3G subscribers - 2001 - 2008
Table 4 - Worldwide wireless broadband and HSPA subscribers - 2008; 2012; 2015
Table 5 - Worldwide Internet users - 1990 - 2008
Table 6 - Worldwide DSL subscribers - 2000 - 2008
Table 7 - Global telecoms capital expenditure - 2008; 2013
Table 8 - Global telecoms revenues - 2002; 2006; 2008; 2010
Table 9 - IMS/LTE based services subscribers - 2007; 2011
Table 10 - Worldwide UC products and service market value - 2007; 2012
Table 11 - Annual change in international bandwidth usage - 2005 - 2007
Table 12 - STM-1 monthly lease price estimates - 2002 - 2006
Table 13 - Construction costs of submarine cables - 1997 - 2009
Table 14 - Investments in unrepeatered fibre optics - 2007; 2010
Table 15 - Worldwide telecom carrier spending on outsourced services - 2007
Table 16 - Number of worldwide outsourcing contracts signed - 2004 - 2008
Table 17 - Worldwide broadband subscribers and annual change - 2003 - 2008
Table 18 - Top ten countries worldwide by fixed broadband subscribers - Q1 2008
Table 19 - Regional share of broadband subscribers including net additions - Q3 2007
Table 20 - Broadband access among Internet households - select countries - 2002 - 2008
Table 21 - Top 8 OECD countries for broadband penetration - 2007
Table 22 - Broadband penetration and ranking, selected OECD countries - 2001; 2006 - 2007
Table 23 - Top 10 OECD countries for broadband subscribers - 2007
Table 24 - Old broadband (ADSL and cable) teledensity in select countries - 2007
Table 25 - New broadband (fibre) - household penetration top 14 countries - 2007
Table 26 - Worldwide broadband market share by access technology - 2006 - 2007
Table 27 - OECD broadband market share by access technology - 2007
Table 28 - OECD countries with cheapest broadband price per Mb/s - June 2007
Table 29 - Average broadband cost for 100Kb/s, in select countries - 2006
Table 30 - Fastest average broadband download speeds - top 4 OECD countries - 2007
Table 31 - Average broadband speeds - 36 selected countries - 2007
Table 32 - Number of countries with broadband speeds >256Kb/s - 2002 - 2007
Table 33 - Average broadband speeds by technology, OECD countries - 2007
Table 34 - Why the average home will soon require 50Mb/s
Table 35 - Total fixed broadband revenues worldwide - 2006; 2010
Table 36 - Telecommunications services revenue share by product - 2010; 2015
Table 37 - Free projections - Paris fibre − 2006; 2008; 2010; 2012; 2014
Table 38 - Forecast fibre subscriber growth in the Netherlands − 2008 - 2011; 2017
Table 39 - Worldwide wireless broadband and HSPA subscribers - 2008; 2012; 2015
Table 40 - Worldwide WiMAX, LTE and HSPA market share - 2015
Table 41 - Wireless broadband and HSPA service revenue - 2010; 2015
Table 42 - Wireless broadband and HSPA market share in developing markets - 2008; 2015
Table 43 - Worldwide mobile subscribers and annual change - 1993 - 2008
Table 44 - Top 20 countries ranked by mobile penetration - 2004 - 2005; Q2 2007
Table 45 - Worldwide mobile subscribers by technology - 2007; 2011
Table 46 - Worldwide mobile subscribers by technology - Q1 2007
Table 47 - Worldwide mobile phone penetration - 2008; 2011
Table 48 - Mobile subscriber CAGR by region - 2007 - 2011
Table 49 - Non-SMS monthly mobile data ARPU, selected operators - Q1 2007
Exhibit number:
Exhibit 1 - Vertical versus functional business models
Exhibit 2 - Key elements of techno-economic revolutions
Exhibit 3 - Starting dates of the five technology cycles of the last 200 years
Exhibit 4 - Effects of the mass deployment phase of communications revolution
Exhibit 5 - Next cycle - nanorevolution
Exhibit 6 - Ranked list of top 15 carriers worldwide - 2007
Exhibit 7 - Top 10 carriers in emerging markets by revenue - Q3 2007
Exhibit 8 - ITU definition of a Next Generation Network
Exhibit 9 - IP-based enhanced services
Exhibit 10 - VPN comparisons - key differentiators
Exhibit 11 - Definition: Indefeasible Right of Use
Exhibit 12 - Examples of major in-service submarine cable systems worldwide - 2008
Exhibit 13 - Examples of major proposed submarine cables - 2008
Exhibit 14 - Comparative advantages of outsourcing and insourcing
Exhibit 15 - Residential broadband (BB) growth predictions - next ten years
Exhibit 16 - Key telecommunications revenue trends - period to 2015
Exhibit 17 - Structural separation developments - 2008
Exhibit 18 - Mobile operators prefer LTE or WiMAX over UMB
Exhibit 19 - Personal broadband definition
Exhibit 20 - NGMN Alliance objectives
Exhibit 21 - Key applications from data pack users
Exhibit 22 - Definition: Personal Wireless Broadband
Exhibit 23 - Ranking of key mobile services & content segments by market share - 2008
Exhibit 24 - Why mobile marketing won’t work

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