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2005 Global NGN, IP and VoIP

Next Generations Networks (NGN) are huge packet switched data communications networks, the traditional telecoms infrastructure becomes one large computer network looking more like WANs and LANs. It will become much easier for third parties to develop and link services to this infrastructure, as infrastructure and services will be totally separate from each other, which will allow for the literally millions of new services offered by hundred of thousands of service providers. These networks already exist in the corporate environment and will start reaching mass markets within the next 5 to 10 years. Think of NGNs as the Internet with its tens of millions of Websites.

It will be a QoS multiple-broadband network and will also support seamless mobility providing users with a ubiquitous provision of services.

It will be a totally IP based infrastructure which means standardised, cheap and open access. IP addressing will bring in not just people and computers to the network but also cars, fridges, every single power point in the house and so on.

A lot of attention is currently given to VoIP, but voice will simply be one of the millions of applications on this network, voice as such which will hardly register on these multi giga- or terra bites networks. However, VoIP offers us a glimpse of the future, it is a first example of that process of standardisation, cheap and open access and will be a key driver in competition. VoIP will only come to full fruition in triple play business models that will be marketed over the broadband networks; bundling voice, high-speed Internet and video services such as broadband TV.


  • EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
  • EMERGING FROM THE TELCO CRISIS
    • FACTORS AFFECTING TELCO EMERGENCE
      • The key drivers of growth
      • Telcos vs customers
      • Spare a thought for the poor 800-pound gorillas
      • Monopolies must be broken up
      • Anti competitive behaviour and dominance
      • Carriers and their core business
      • Rethinking business models
      • Growth driven by customer demand
    • TELECOMS GROWTH STRATEGIES – 2005
      • 2004 – The in-between year
      • Fresh merger and acquisition activity in telco-land
      • Telcos and the entertainment market
      • Looking on the bright side of competition
      • Two types of companies emerging from the crisis
        • Table Nextgen telecoms
      • Nextgen infrastructure
      • Wasted energies in 3G
      • Wireless broadband disruptive parallel technologies
      • The battle for the consumer
      • Structural separation
    • NEW LOOK TELCOS
      • The changing telco environment
      • Survival of the fittest
      • Regulation
      • Enterprise led recovery
      • Turning Carriers into Multi-Service Operators
      • Competitors and ULL
      • Infrastructure issues
      • The risk of telco failure
  • THE INDUSTRY IN 2005
    • THE VOICE, DATA, BROADBAND MARKET IN 2005
      • Infrastructure
      • Narrowband services
      • Mobile market
      • Broadband market
      • Longer-term trends
    • BROADBAND IN 2005
      • Broadband scorecard mid-2005 – Analysis
      • Broadband fastest growing technology
      • Korea leading the world
      • Market issues
        • Table Take up time to reach 10 million customers in mass market
      • Users in the driver's seat
      • Broadband infrastructure
    • THE FTTH MARKET IN 2005
      • Factors influencing FttH adoption
        • Table Residential Broadband (BB) –growth predictions – next ten years
      • The current status of FttH
        • Table FttH by region – 2005
      • Initial drivers: utilities and local councils
      • Structural separation a must for FttH
      • The European picture in 2005
      • Asia bucking the trend
      • Conclusions
    • VOIP IN 2005
      • The continuing importance of voice
      • Give VoIP a chance
      • VoIP needs to be underpinned by NGNs
      • Corporate markets
      • VoIP – a case of evolution, rather than revolution
      • Wireless VoIP
    • BROADCASTING – THE DIGITAL FTA MARKET IN 2005
      • The digital TV market in 2005
      • The end of analogue broadcasting
      • Not HDTV but SDTV
      • Digital TV challenging traditional broadcasters
      • Costs of digital TV slashed
      • Digital TV – the second interactive platform
      • Pricing key to digital TV
    • BROADCASTING – THE DIGITAL PAY TV MARKET IN 2005
      • Introduction
      • First digital TV developments
      • Regional developments
        • Table Basic pay TV subscriber prices in Europe – 2004
      • Mature vs emerging markets
      • Free digital vs pay digital
      • Cross-platform competition
    • HIGH-LEVEL STRATEGIC THINKING
      • Visionary elements
      • Develop strategies
      • Back to the marketplace
      • In summary
    • STRUCTURAL SEPARATION
      • Next phase of competition
      • Disintermediation drives market size growth
      • Vertical integration – doomed to fail
      • From vertical integrated to functional organisations
        • Table Vertical vs. Functional Business Models
      • Functional telco business model from ITU
  • FORECASTS FOR 2006
    • PLANNING FOR 2006
      • High-level developments
      • Three distinct segments
      • Get a 360 degree vision
      • Separation and integration
      • Industry-specific Forecasts
    • LONGER TERM PLANNING
      • The market in ten years time
      • Industry restructuring
      • Industry-specific forecasts
    • THE INDUSTRY MOVING INTO 2006
      • Telecoms revival
      • Trench warfare and guerilla activities
      • The telcos struggling with declining voice revenues
      • Consolidation is making steady progress
      • Competition not progressing
      • Broadband resale
      • VoIP offering new competition opportunities
      • Wireless broadband opportunities
      • Shake-out of the ISP market on the horizon
      • The mobile market reaching saturation
      • The utilities expanding into regional areas
    • THE MARKET MOVING INTO 2006
      • Triple Play
      • Rapidly changing voice market
      • Digital TV
      • Regional developments forging ahead
    • NGN, VOICE, DATA, BROADBAND MOVING INTO 2006
      • Next Generation Networks (NGN)
      • Infrastructure
      • Narrowband services
      • Mobile market
      • Broadband market
    • STRUCTURAL CHANGES FOR 2006
      • High-level industry structures
      • Three distinct segments
      • Get a 360 degree vision
      • Separation and integration
      • Government policies and regulations
    • WIRELESS PERSONAL AREA NETWORKS (WPANS)
      • Future scenarios
      • Future scenarios
    • TELECOMS PREDICTIONS – 2005-2015
      • Paul Budde's approach to forecasting
        • Table Predicted global m-commerce revenues – 2003 – 2005; 2009; 2010
      • Long-term telecoms revenue trends – 2010-2015
        • Table Telecommunications services revenue by market – 2005; 2010; 2015
        • Table Telecommunications services revenue by product – 2005; 2010; 2015
        • Table Telecommunications services revenue by industry group – 2005; 2010; 2015
      • Mobile
        • Table Mobile data revenue as percent of total mobile revenue forecast 2005 - 2015
        • Table Mobile penetration – 2005 - 2015
      • Broadband
        • Table Forecasting broadband over a 10-year period
        • Table Residential Broadband (BB) –growth predictions – next ten years
      • Wireless vs Fixed broadband
        • Table Wireless as percent of fixed broadband forecast 2005 - 2015
      • Regulation – structural changes in the industry
        • Table A changing industry structure – 2005 - 2010
      • So where to go from here?
  • GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS

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