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2006 Global Mobile Data and Content - Battle between HSDPA and WiMAX

Attention: There is an updated edition available for this report.

Annual report contains: Mobile triple play, SMS, MMS, Mobile TV, HSDPA, IPMS, Edge, WAP, GPRS, HSCSD, EV DO, iX, 4G, Corporate Mobile data, m-commerce, micropayments, RFID, telemetry, GPS, location services. Also contains industry analysis issues and strategies, government policies, spectrum developments.

Detailed chapters on:

Critical assessments of the mobile data technologies
New business models such as Triple Play
Business issues for content providers
Mobile data vs. wireless broadband
Technology information
Global overviews
Trends and Developments
User statistics
Revenues and forecasts

The lack of success of new 3G services, that followed the already slow uptake of dedicated mobile data systems that were developed in the 1990s, is a clear indication that interest in traditional mobile data is still limited. WAP, GPRS, MMS, 1X and other developments over the past few years certainly have not changed the situation. Current mobile technologies are not well suited for economically viable business models for mobile data. WiMAX might challenge mobile data towards the end of the decade, but the mobile industry is trying to fight back with HSDPA (High Speed Downlink Packet Access).

The lack of suitable infrastructure has hampered the growth of mobile data. As with voice applications, the emerging nextgen (NGN) platforms are going to have a major impact. While it still needs to deliver, IMS is an example of such NGN developments. Mobile voice communications will consolidate in mature markets but continue their spectacular growth in developing countries, mainly Africa. However, mobile data, beyond SMS and particular countries such as Japan and Korea, will remain a niche market business and will grow into IP-based WiMAX services towards the end of the decade. Apart from IP Multimedia System (IMS), the main enabler is broadband. The aim is now to bundle these products into attractive triple play or quadruple play business models.

Mobile Content
If we measure the market based on the number of mobile content providers, then there certainly is plenty of interest in this market. Unfortunately these providers depend on the mobile operators in order to deliver their products to their customers. The business models that these operators offer are hopelessly inadequate. They are not catering for impulse buy models. With the exception of Japan, Korea and China, very few sustainable models are currently in operation. The rest of the world is waiting on MVNO models that provide content providers with the freedom to distribute their own products and manage their own billing and customer service.

Mobile data applications
SMS makes it possible to use the same mobile handset for voice and data services. The market has grown by default despite carriers having refused to properly market and package their SMS services for most of the 1990s. It was driven by teenagers who preferred to send (cheaper) SMS messages rather than making expensive calls. SMS is used as a cheaper alternative to making mobile calls as well as becoming trendy amongst young mobile users.

As an extension of the immensely popular SMS service, MMS provides longer text messages, in addition to music and pictures, and allows the sending of messages to multiple recipients. Started in 2001, it has so far failed to take off. There are too many technical and commercial issues and in the meantime new technologies such as 3G and Mobile TV have entered the market. However, it appears that only wireless broadband will be able to deliver a sustainable economic platform for these triple play multimedia services.

The initial hype surrounding m-commerce has somewhat settled down. Most people have realised the limitations of the current 2G and 3G technologies. While the principle behind m-commerce remains strong, we might have to wait for mass market wireless broadband deployment towards the end of this decade before we see significant new growth here. This would also provide operators, MVNO and off-net content providers to build more economic viable business models around these products. SMS based systems are also ideally suited for micropayments on the Internet. Permission based models are used for quizzes, games and TV shows.

Mobile data infrastructure
Technologies have been developed to bridge the gap between the well established 2G and the much vaunted 3G, the so-called 2½G. To date, there have been limited success stories related to these technologies, but interest is slowly being rekindled following the poor showing by WAP. Technologies discussed here include GPRS, EDGE, HSCSD and i-Mode.

With most countries still considering the introduction of 3G, the industry is already developing 3¼G and beyond, with technologies such as HSDPA. Linking fixed and mobile together on IMS is another development, allowing for mobile TV and triple play models.

Whereas SMS took the world by surprise, Mobile TV aims to follow in its footsteps. It combines two of the most widespread media - communications and TV. The first applications started to arrive in Europe in the early 00s. The major threats to this new medium are the high costs and the lack of an adequate infrastructure for such services. Permission-based marketing (premium SMS) and triple play are amongst the most successful business models to push these new technologies forward.

Corporate Data
Corporate mobile data services have been around more than 15 years. They have been mainly based on dedicated mobile data networks used by companies with large sales forces, service teams, travelling agents, and so on. In order for such organisations to use mobile data services, they will need sophisticated internal electronic information networks in place to which the mobile data systems can be linked. This report discusses networks such as BlackBerry, Mobitex and Ditac and the various applications used. It also discusses the business opportunities of mobile data services such as GPRS over GSM and wireless broadband networks such as WiMAX.

Telemetry and RFID
Automatic Data Capture (ADC) is a collective term for a group of technologies that includes Barcoding, Magnetic Stripe, Radio Frequency (RF) Tagging and Data Communication, Optical and Magnetic Ink Character Recognition (OCR, MICR), Smartcards and Vision and Voice Recognition Systems. They are an efficient form of information capture for the management of information, and information for management. This report gives a description of each of these technologies, together with the emerging RFID.

Using satellites, mobile technology allows for major navigational services, including global navigation, global positioning including GPS and GLONASS, the emerging European Galileo system, location-based services such as the 911 service in the USA, and personal navigation phones.

The main uses for mobile telemetry are presently fleet management, security and equipment monitoring. The high growth in this field is fuelled by the convergence of wireless, computing and Internet technologies, which will create a range of affordable and practical applications.

Mobile handsets
As vendors fight for market share and more bandwidth becomes available, mobile phones are incorporating a variety of new functions such as still and movie cameras, advanced messaging, access to the Internet etc. Sales of handsets slowed markedly following the industry downturn in 2001, but started to recover in early 2004, with rapid growth during the year, aided by the development of new equipment such as camera phones. This continued into early 2006. The trend here is that the mobile and wireless broadband market will be driven by the new devices that will be pushed onto the market by the vendors. Mobile operators will see their present leading position to drive this market severely curtailed. Nokia retains it dominant market share, with Samsung showing the fastest growth rate. It is expected that the IT and CE industries are going to take a more prominent role in the market of new wireless broadband devices.

1.1 Key highlights of recent developments in mobile data
1.1.1 Introduction
1.1.2 Cellular-based mobile data developments
1.1.3 EVDO: successful for business mobile data
1.1.4 Blackberry
1.1.5 Why are Japan and Korea successful?
1.2 Decline in mobile data - analysis - update early 2006
1.2.1 SMS revenues levelling off
1.2.2 First cracks are appearing
1.2.3 Industry puts technology in front of customers
1.2.4 Operators failed to change attitudes
1.2.5 Manufacturers supporting bypass solutions
1.2.6 WiMAX - the ultimate mobile bypass
1.2.7 Content providers giving up hope
1.2.8 The end of the line for large-scale mobile data
1.3 How to proceed from here
1.4 Revenue forecasts
1.5 Is Super 3G WIMAX?
1.5.1 Prediction dilemmas
1.5.2 The future is broadband
1.5.3 What went wrong with mobile data?
1.5.4 Demand is there, supply is failing
1.5.5 Super 3G -vs- WiMAX
1.5.6 Mobile technology not well-suited
2.1 Introduction
2.1.1 Ericsson takes on the WiMAX challenge
2.1.2 Unique features of mobile data
2.1.3 Multi-platform operators
2.1.4 Mobile Triple Play
2.2 General Packet Radio Services (GPRS)
2.2.1 Introduction
2.2.2 Early developments
2.2.3 Progress in 2005
2.2.4 Push to Talk (PTT)
2.2.5 WiFi/GPRS/3G combination
2.2.6 GPRS TV
2.3 High-Speed Circuit Switched Data (HSCSD)
2.3.1 Introduction
2.3.2 Internet based HSCSD
2.3.3 Developments are lingering on
2.4 EDGE
2.4.1 Updates from GSA - 2005
2.4.2 Updates from GSA - 2004
2.4.3 EDGE technology
2.5 i-Mode
2.6 High-Speed Downlink Packet Access (HSDPA)
2.6.1 HSDPA - platform for triple play
2.6.2 Applications of HSDPA - late 2005
2.6.3 Will HSDPA dethrone WiMAX
2.6.4 Mobile communications vs wireless broadband
2.6.5 High-Speed Uplink Packet Access (HSUPA)
2.7 IP Multimedia systems (IMS)
2.7.1 Introduction of IMS
2.7.2 IP Multimedia systems (IMS)
2.8 CDMA/GSM 25/75
3.1 Introduction
3.1.1 A market grown by default
3.1.2 Skyrocketing growth driven by low access to mobiles
3.1.3 The failure of SMS/texting in the USA
3.1.4 Instant messaging (IM)
3.1.5 Premium SMS
3.2 SMS statistics
3.2.1 Reports from 2005
3.2.2 Reports from 2004
3.3 Trends and developments
3.3.1 Will SMS grow beyond its current niche market?
3.3.2 SMS translation services
3.3.3 SMS pornography
3.3.4 Permission-based SMS
3.4 Unstructured Supplementary Service Data (USSD)
3.4.1 Store-and-forward messaging services
3.4.2 Key benefits
3.4.3 Early providers
3.4.4 Analysis
4.1 Market overview
4.2 Analysis of MMS and other video based mobile developments
4.2.1 Don’t write MMS off yet - analysis September 2005
4.2.2 The future indeed is video communications
4.2.3 International overview
4.2.4 Mobile video has been over-hyped
4.2.5 Financial and technical limitations
4.2.6 Key market 13-19 year olds
4.2.7 Market size
4.2.8 Competing technologies
4.2.9 Regulation-driven competition
4.2.10 Checking market realities
4.2.11 Who takes the lead?
4.3 MMS statistics
4.3.1 Reports from 2004
4.4 MMS for criminal surveillance
4.5 MMS Interoperability Group
4.6 Fixed line MMS
5.1 The Broadcaster and the Mobile Operator
5.2 Key elements of SMS/TV
5.3 Case studies
5.3.1 Vodafone
5.3.2 Sogecable Spain
5.3.3 O2 UK
5.3.4 Predikta India
5.3.5 MTV
5.3.6 Blue Factory in Sweden
5.3.7 SMS in advertising
5.3.8 Mobile gaming
5.4 Challenges ahead
5.5 Permission-based is killer app
5.6 New opportunities
5.7 The Future of SMS/TV
5.7.1 Risk: high costs
5.7.2 New driver behind iTV
5.8 Mobile TV standard
6.1 Micropayments
6.1.1 Payments by mobile phone
6.1.2 Still no economically viable business models
6.1.3 Payments by cards
6.2 Mobile Cash payments
6.3 The NEW future of m-commerce
6.4 M-commerce analysis
6.4.1 Doubts about short-term m-commerce
6.4.2 New business models required
6.4.3 M-commerce on specialised devices
6.4.4 No large residential market soon
6.4.5 Good prospects for business market
6.5 Statistics and forecasts
6.5.1 Reports from 2005
6.5.2 Reports from 2004
6.6 M-Commerce developments
6.6.1 World’s first mobile-commerce system
6.6.2 Mobile commerce forums - RIP
6.6.3 Mobile Payment Forum (from the credit card giants)
6.6.4 Payment systems
6.7 Wireless advertising
7.1 Developments in mobile
7.2 2G multimedia services failed to take-off
7.3 Multimedia essential element in triple play bundle
7.4 Emerging technologies
7.5 Unlicensed Mobile Access
7.6 Mobile broadcast
7.6.1 Mobile Broadcast Multicast Services
7.6.2 First services
7.6.3 Qualcomm’s MediaFLO network
7.7 What about 4G
8.1 Historical background
8.2 Market growth
8.3 Business market opportunities
8.3.1 Mobile office ready to take off
8.3.2 Corporate mobile data
8.3.3 The Wireless Enterprise in 2005
8.3.4 Mobile e-mail
8.3.5 High costs
8.3.6 Mobile at fixed network prices
8.4 Other business applications
8.4.1 EFTPOS
8.4.2 Telemetry
8.5 Corporate data technologies
8.5.1 Introduction
8.5.2 DataTAC
8.5.3 Mobitex
8.5.4 Cellular Digital Packet Data (CDPD)
8.5.5 Blackberry
8.5.6 Cellular-based developments
8.5.7 Developments with wireless broadband
9.1 Market analysis - 2005
9.1.1 Flawed business models
9.1.2 Content providers giving up hope
9.1.3 Manufacturers supporting bypass solutions
9.1.4 The race for content
9.2 Content applications
9.2.1 General statistics from 2005
9.2.2 inCode predictions for 2006
9.2.3 IPX takes on the walled mobile gardens
9.2.4 Power struggles in the music industry
9.2.5 Ringtone market
9.2.6 Mobile gambling
9.2.7 Mobile games
9.2.8 Videos for mobile
9.2.9 Consumer broadcast applications
9.2.10 Wireless Internet
9.2.11 Mobile erotica
9.2.12 Sports
9.3 Residential applications: permission based marketing
9.4 Digital Rights Management (DRM)
9.4.1 The Open Mobile Alliance (OMA)
10.1 Introduction
10.2 Remote monitoring
10.3 Remote sensing satellites
10.3.1 Telecontrol
10.4 Computer assisted meter reading
10.4.1 New business model required (analysis)
10.4.2 AMR using ZigBee
10.5 Wireless broadband
10.5.1 Set to crack 100% penetration
10.5.2 ZIGBEE for lighting control
11.1 Bar codes
11.2 Radio Frequency Identification (RFID)
11.2.1 Overview
11.2.2 Technology still in its early days
11.2.3 Early developments in the USA
11.2.4 Developments are hotting up
11.2.5 RFID for US passports
11.2.6 Statistics from 2005
11.2.7 Concerns about privacy
11.2.8 Chinese RFID standard?
11.3 Magnetic stripe systems
11.4 SmartCards
11.5 Mark sensors and Optical Character Recognition
11.6 Vision systems
11.7 Voice recognition
11.8 Magnetic ink character recognition
12.1 Global navigation satellite systems
12.1.1 Products of the cold war
12.1.2 History (Pre-GPS)
12.1.3 Geographic information services
12.1.4 Euteltracs
12.1.5 Galileo
12.1.6 Kuaiyixing from China Satcom
12.2 Global Positioning Systems (GPS)
12.2.1 Introduction
12.2.2 Differential GPS
12.2.3 Applications
12.3 Location-Based Services (LBS)
12.3.1 Location-based technologies
12.3.2 LBS research in 2004
12.3.3 Applications
12.3.4 GSM+GPS personal navigation phone
13.1 Overview handset market
13.1.1 Reports from 2006
13.1.2 Reports from 2005
13.1.3 Reports from 2004
13.2 Safety and security issues
13.2.1 Exploding phones
13.2.2 Problems continued in 2004
13.2.3 Mobile phones targeted by viruses
13.3 Unsustainable handset subsidies
14.1 Messaging and WAP
14.1.1 MMS - Multimedia Messaging Service
14.1.2 Wireless Application Protocol (WAP)
14.1.3 GPRS
14.1.4 Single Antenna Interference Cancellation (SAIC)
14.1.5 EDGE
Exhibit 1 - Theoretical and realistic speeds GPRS, EDGE and UMTS (Kb/s)
Exhibit 2 - GPRS advantages
Exhibit 3 - Major WCDMA/EDGE global operators - August 2005
Exhibit 4 - What is IMS?
Exhibit 5 - Comparison of mobile messaging technologies
Exhibit 6 - Comparison: SMS, EMS, MMS by Ovum
Exhibit 7 - Comparison: SMS, MMS by Mobile Streams
Exhibit 8 - 3G R&D Developments
Exhibit 9 - GPS accuracy specifications

Table 1 - Mobile data as a % of operators’ revenue - 2005
Table 2 - Mobile data (non SMS) as a % of operators’ revenue - 2005
Table 3 - US Consumer IM Destinations - mid-2005
Table 4 - Data as a percent of revenue for top 15 companies - 2003 (historic)
Table 5 - Predicted global m-commerce revenues - 2003 - 2005; 2009; 2010
Table 6 - Dedicated mobile data subscribers by application - 2000 - 2005
Table 7 - top US mobile content and applications - February 2005
Table 8 - Type of mobile content accessed by region - early 2005
Table 9 - ARPU per mobile user for voice and data by region - 2004
Table 10 - Main Telemetry categories in Europe by 2004
Table 11 - RFID spending in US - 2002 - 2008
Table 12 - Mobile handset revenues worldwide - 2002 - 2006
Table 13 - Global mobile terminal revenues - 2003 - 2005
Table 14 - Mobile systems sales revenue - 2004 - 2007
Table 15 - Handset suppliers market shares - 1997 - 2004
Table 16 - Handset sales and market shares - first two quarters 2005
Table 17 - Worldwide mobile handset sales - 2001 - 2007
Table 18 - Worldwide mobile terminal sales by vendor - 2002 - 2003 (historical)
Table 19 - Mobile handset market shares - March 2004
Table 20 - Global sales and market shares by vendor - Q2, Q3, 2004
Table 21 - Worldwide mobile device sales market share - Q1, 2004
Table 22 - Global handset sales and market shares by vendor - 2003, 2004
Table 23 - Mobile handset sales by vendor - Q2 and Q3, 2004
Table 24 - Mobile phone features desired by US users - June 2004

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