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2008 Global - Next Generation Telecoms and FttH

This annual report offers a wealth of information on the worldwide development of Next Generation Telecoms with a focus on FttH. Information at a regional level is provided for the Americas, Europe, Middle East, Africa and Asia Pacific. The report includes analyses, statistics, forecasts and trends. It provides a comprehensive insight into the progress of Next Generation Telecoms and examines the key issues and opportunities. FttH is discussed in terms of its importance for the digital economy. BuddeComm’s analyses of the issues surrounding the regulating of fibre access are provided, along with a case study on this topic for Europe. The report also includes a statistical overview of the worldwide broadband market and additional statistics on FttH. Information on All-IP networks is incorporated, along with relevant technical information on both fibre and IP techniques. Please note: Next Generation Mobile Networks are covered in a separate annual publication.

Subjects covered include:

  • Analyses of Next Generation Telecoms including FttH and IP networks;
  • Global and regional broadband market statistics;
  • Global and regional FttH market statistics;
  • Analyses on regulating fibre access including case study on Europe;
  • Analyses of FttH and the digital economy, including case study on Australia;
  • Relevant technical information on Fibre and IP techniques;
  • Regional overviews.
  • Researchers: Paul Budde, Lawrence Baker, Lucia Bibolini, Peter Evans, Phil Harpur, Lisa Hulme-Jones, Paul Kwon, Henry Lancaster, Tine Lewis, Kylie Wansink, Robin Whittle.

The global telecommunications market is rapidly transforming. Telecom networks are undergoing extraordinary changes with investments in All-IP Next Generation Networks and fibre networks increasing in order to meet burgeoning consumer demand for high-bandwidth applications. The ‘business case’ for Fibre-to-the-Home networks is no longer based solely on the commercial returns from Internet access and other communication services. Important services that depend on high quality broadband infrastructure include telehealth, tele-education, e-business, digital media, e-government, smart utility meter reading, etc. These are all key reasons why developed nations need Next Generation Networks. In the developing markets, next generation telecoms will take the form of wireless NGNs (ie, LTE/WiMAX).

IP is at the core of NGNs as it facilitates affordable triple play business models and seamlessly integrates voice, data and video. The telecommunications network is dramatically changing to an IP driven environment and in 2008 the majority of corporate and government telecoms users have upgraded to All-IP networks. The next stage is to now upgrade the public networks.

While most people within the telecoms industry agree that FttH is the future, it is the countries with effective and strong regulatory policies that are forging ahead with a lively fibre footprint. Once regulators get the issue between their teeth and act, the fibre sector moves ahead because operators are no longer put off by regulatory uncertainty. By promoting effective fibre regimes, regulators are in turn supported by governments’ conscious of the socio-economic benefits of fast broadband networks, and the consideration that such networks are vital to national infrastructure.

There are currently over 40 million FTTx subscribers worldwide. While DSL still retains the largest market share of broadband subscribers globally, there is some evidence that FttH uptake is growing at a faster rate. However it is important to note that mass deployment of FttH is in most countries still 5-10 years away. This is due partly to the developments in DSL (speed and reach), which are allowing the telcos to extend the life of their copper-based networks and also due to the costs involved in FttH deployment.

Asia continues to reign as the leading region, accounting for around 80% of all FTTx subscribers. Japan has the highest number of FTTx subscribers worldwide; however the USA, South Korea and parts of Europe are also rapidly rolling out. The uptake of GPON technology is expected to grow quickly in 2008 due to Verizon’s roll-out, resulting in reductions in both GEPON and BPON market share.

This report provides an insight and analyses into the trends and developments taking place in Next Generation Telecoms with a focus on FttH. FttH is discussed in terms of its importance for the digital economy. The issues surrounding the regulating of fibre access are also explored, along with a case study on this topic for Europe. The report also provides a statistical overview of the worldwide broadband market and additional statistics on FttH. Information on All-IP networks is incorporated, along with relevant technical information on both fibre and IP techniques. Developments and statistics at a regional level are provided for North America, Latin America, Europe, Middle East, Africa and Asia Pacific. Please note: Next Generation Mobile Networks are covered in a separate annual publication.

Key highlights:

  • In the developed world the plan for a national network must be based on the ultimate network architecture of FttH in metro areas, plus a combination of technologies elsewhere - with end-to-end facilities for organisations such as healthcare, education, utilities, media companies and so on.
  • In 2008 Asia continues to dominate the rest of the world in terms of FttH market penetration.
  • Worldwide FttH port shipments are expected to increase by over 80% in 2008.
  • FttH and FttB were the most expensive broadband access technologies in the OECD.
  • In Australia, the government is looking at using next-generation telecoms infrastructure to promote the digital economy. This includes applications such as tele-health, tele-education, smart grids, media, etc. BuddeComm has taken an industry leadership role to assist the government in this process.
  • With the number of US homes passed by fibre growing at over 200%, the US is the fastest growing FttH market in the world.
  • FttH and FttB are growing in popularity across Eastern Europe as incumbent and alternative operators alike deploy networks. Deployment costs and availability of existing copper last mile infrastructure in established suburbs has restricted most FttH/FttB deployments to greenfield sites or densely populated suburbs.
Broadband - Infrastructure blueprint
Area Radius Technologies Population penetration
Metro FttH 75-80%
Regional 30-50km Mixture 15-25%
Remote 50km+ Satellite 1-2%
(Source: BuddeComm, 2008)
Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year.

1. Next Generation Telecoms
1.1 Introduction to next generation telecoms
1.1.1 Nextgen telcos - analysis
1.1.2 IP and NGNs
1.1.3 Virtual Private LAN Service (VPLS)
1.1.4 Fibre and next generation telecoms
1.1.5 Wireless NGNs
1.1.6 Brief case studies
1.1.7 Conclusion: end-to-end connectivity for national NGNs
2. The FTTx Market In 2008
2.1 Broadband market and statistics
2.1.1 Broadband statistics and forecasts
2.1.2 Broadband subscribers by access technology
2.1.3 Broadband pricing
2.1.4 Broadband speeds
2.1.5 Broadband revenues
2.2 FTTx market and statistics
2.2.1 Introduction: FttH going forward
2.2.2 Fibre-based access
2.2.3 Global overview
3. Regulating Fibre
3.1 Regulating fibre access - case study Europe
3.1.1 Introduction: FttH deployment overview
3.1.2 FttH drivers
3.1.3 Case study: Europe
3.1.4 FttH business models
3.1.5 Structural separation
3.1.6 Examples of open access
4. FttH and The Digital Economy
4.1 FttH and the digital economy - case study Australia
4.1.1 Australian government is leading the way
4.1.2 Essential for health, education and energy services
4.1.3 Whole-of-government approach is necessary
4.1.4 Regulatory frameworks are failing
4.1.5 National benefits are astounding
4.1.6 Conclusions
5. Regional Overviews
5.1 North America
5.1.1 USA
5.1.2 Canada
5.2 Latin America
5.2.1 Overview
5.2.2 Mexico
5.2.3 Brazil
5.2.4 Chile
5.2.5 Panama
5.3 Europe
5.3.1 Western Europe
5.3.2 Eastern Europe
5.4 Middle East
5.4.1 Overview
5.4.2 Israel
5.4.3 The GCC countries
5.5 Asia
5.5.1 Overview
5.5.2 Taiwan
5.5.3 South Korea
5.5.4 Japan
5.5.5 China
5.5.6 Singapore
5.5.7 India
5.5.8 Malaysia
5.5.9 Thailand
5.6 Pacific region
5.6.1 Australia
5.6.2 New Zealand
6. Technology
6.1 Last mile 2 - fibre
6.1.1 Introduction
6.1.2 Customer needs
6.1.3 Needs of telecommunications carriers
6.1.4 Standards organisations and industry bodies
6.1.5 Architectural considerations
6.2 IP techniques
6.2.1 RSVP-TE - establishing the Label Switched Path
6.2.2 MPLS Fast Rerouting - RFC 4090
6.2.3 MPLS pseudo-wires
6.2.4 MPLS Layer 2 VPNs
6.2.5 Next Generation Networks
7. Glossary of Abbreviations
Table 1 - Subscribers to IMS/LTE-based services - 2007; 2011
Table 2 - Worldwide broadband subscribers - 2003 - 2008
Table 3 - Top ten countries worldwide by fixed broadband subscribers - Q1 2008
Table 4 - Regional share of broadband subscribers including net additions - Q3 2007
Table 5 - Broadband access among Internet households - select countries - 2002 - 2008
Table 6 - Broadband penetration - top 5 OECD countries - mid-2007
Table 7 - Broadband penetration in select OECD - 2001; 2006 - 2007
Table 8 - Broadband subscribers - top 10 OECD countries - mid-2007
Table 9 - Old broadband (ADSL and cable) teledensity - in select countries
Table 10 - New broadband (fibre) - household penetration top 14 countries
Table 11 - Worldwide broadband market share by access technology - 2006 - 2007
Table 12 - OECD broadband market share by access technology - mid-2007
Table 13 - OECD countries with cheapest broadband price per Mb/s - June 2007
Table 14 - Average broadband cost for 100kb/s - in select countries worldwide - 2006
Table 15 - Fastest average broadband download speeds - top 4 OECD countries - mid-2007
Table 16 - Average broadband speeds - 36 selected countries - 2007
Table 17 - Number of countries with broadband speeds > 256Kb/s - 2002 - 2007
Table 18 - Average broadband speeds by technology - OECD - October 2007
Table 19 - Why the average home will soon require 50Mb/s
Table 20 - Total fixed broadband revenues worldwide - 2006; 2010
Table 21 - Telecommunications services revenue share by product - 2010; 2015
Table 22 - Worldwide FTTx subscribers - 2007 - 2008
Table 23 - Worldwide FTTx share of broadband market - 2004; 2006 - 2007
Table 24 - FTTx market share by region - 2007
Table 25 - Worldwide markets with FTTx penetration > 1% - 2007
Table 26 - Worldwide FttH port shipments - 2007 - 2008
Table 27 - Worldwide FttH port shipments by technology - 2007 - 2008
Table 28 - Worldwide spending on fibre optic cables - 2006; 2010
Table 29 - Free projections - Paris fibre - 2006; 2008; 2010; 2012; 2014
Table 30 - Forecast fibre subscribers in the Netherlands - 2008 - 2011; 2017
Table 31 - FttH homes passed and connected - 2001 - 2008
Table 32 - Fibre penetration in top European FttH markets - April 2008
Table 33 - Fibre prices per household by penetration rate - 2008
Table 34 - Eastern European FttH subscribers in select countries - 2007
Table 35 - Homes connected to fibre in Australia and New Zealand - 2005 - 2010
Exhibit 1 - ITU definition of a Next Generation Network
Exhibit 2 - IP-based enhanced services
Exhibit 3 - VPN comparisons - key differentiators
Exhibit 4 - Residential Broadband (BB) growth predictions through to 2015
Exhibit 5 - Key telecommunications revenue trends - period to 2015
Exhibit 6 - Optical fibre
Exhibit 7 - Broadband - infrastructure blueprint
Exhibit 8 - Structural separation developments - 2008
Exhibit 9 - Telehealth benefits of utilising national communications infrastructure
Exhibit 10 - Status of RBOC fibre network build out - March 2008
Exhibit 11 - Main European FttH and VDSL deployments - mid-2008
Exhibit 12 - Telstra’s NGN planned implementation time-line
Exhibit 13 - Fibre network overview by provider - New Zealand

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