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2006 Global FttH - How long can Telcos hold off

Attention: There is an updated edition available for this report.

Annual report on: Fibre to the home (FttH, FttC, FttP), optical communications, ATM and IP developments, blown fibre, Ethernet, Passive Optical Networks (B-PON, E-PON, G-PON), switched digital video, MPEG, xDSL (VDSL, SDSL, ADSL), HFC, SDH/SONET, MPLS. Developments in: USA, Canada, Europe, Asia-Pacific and Latin America.

Report also contains:

FttH market, industry overviews and analyses in 2006
Issues and Developments
Growth predictions
Cost analyses
Business Strategies
Regional overviews
Industry issues and regulatory
Technology overview

Fibre-to-the-Home (FttH) is undoubtedly the next development in telecommunications (and broadcasting) infrastructure. Once the 1st and 2nd generation broadband networks start to reach penetration levels of 20% or so, the pressure on national infrastructures will start to grow. Video-based communication will be the killer applications on these networks.

Japan is the current world leader, with more than 5 million users connected to FttH, and deployments are rapidly rolling out in the USA and South Korea. Developments are also taking place in some countries across Europe. Access is going to be a key issue and either fragmentation of the incumbents and/or regulatory reform, will cause a structural separation to take place between basic infrastructure and retail activities. Opportunities exist for developers, cities, states/provinces, who see FttH as an important infrastructure development and are prepared to take the lead in FttH roll-outs.

This report provides analysis of the current market, including business drivers, future opportunities, current business models and the costs of deployment. The report also includes analysis of various issues impacting upon FttH deployment, and information on the activities taking place in regions and countries around the world.

In the technology section we discuss how air-blown fibre greatly eases the installation of fresh fibres to homes and offices. We discuss Passive Optical Networks and point-to-point Ethernet standards, especially those from IEEE 802.3ah and Metro Ethernet and its various services, including Video-on-Demand, private networks etc.

The technical characteristics of Fibre-to-the-Curb and Very High Rate Digital Subscriber Line are discussed in great detail they include: installation advantages in the home compared with all fibre FttH; PON fibre architecture, Marconi’s TransACT installation; the standards debate between single- and multi-carrier; and the Korean and East Asian rapid adoption of FttC/VDSL.

In the long distance section the report covers the optical characteristics of fibre, its dispersion and distortion mechanisms, both EDFA and Raman optical amplification, Wavelength Division Multiplexing of over 100 wavelengths and soliton transmission is discussed as well as semiconductor lasers - including tunable monolithic devices - high-speed modulation and detector technologies and the differences between PDH and SDH systems.

1.1 Overview
1.1.1 DSL is building the business case for FttH
1.1.2 Growth patterns and predictions
1.1.3 No business case for large-scale deployments
1.1.4 Business drivers
1.1.5 No e-government without fibre
1.1.6 Fibre-to-the-Node and VDSL
1.2 Where is the action in FttH?
1.2.1 Who are the leaders and why?
1.2.2 Initial drivers: utilities and local councils
1.2.3 Business market
1.2.4 Infrastructure upgrades
1.2.5 Corporate optical fibre
1.2.6 New housing developments
1.3 Different FttH business models
1.3.1 National economy drivers
1.3.2 Social drivers
1.3.3 Entertainment drivers
1.3.4 ‘Go with the flow’ strategies
1.3.5 New housing developments
1.4 Telcos still reluctant
1.4.1 Business opportunities for FttH niche telcos
1.4.2 Alternative infrastructure developments
1.5 Structural separation a must for FttH
1.6 The costs of FttH
1.6.1 AT&T project estimates
2.1 FttH issues
2.1.1 ‘Build and they will come’ - back in favour
2.1.2 Optical communications
2.1.3 FttC architecture definitions
2.1.4 Future infrastructure - strategic analysis
2.1.5 Fibre-based access
2.1.6 The nationwide road to FttH will take 10-15 years
2.1.7 Fibre-to-the-Node (FttN)
2.1.8 FttH vs FttN
2.1.9 Blown Fibre
2.2 FttH deployments
2.2.1 Introduction
2.2.2 The global position in 2006
2.2.3 Regional overview
3.1 North America
3.1.1 USA
3.1.2 Canada
3.2 Latin America
3.2.1 FttH projects are beginning to emerge
3.3 Europe
3.3.1 Western Europe
3.3.2 Eastern Europe
3.4 Middle East
3.4.1 Overview
3.5 Asia
3.5.1 Overview
3.5.2 Japan
3.5.3 South Korea
3.5.4 China
3.5.5 Other Asian markets
3.6 Pacific Region
3.6.1 Australia
3.6.2 New Zealand
4.1 Last Mile
4.1.1 Introduction
4.1.2 Customer needs
4.1.3 Needs of telecommunications carriers
4.1.4 Standards organisations and industry bodies
4.1.5 Architectural considerations
4.1.6 Alternative fibre strategies
4.1.7 Metro Ethernet services
4.1.8 ITU G.983 APON/BPON
4.1.9 ITU G.984 GPON
4.1.10 ITU G.985 Point-to-point
4.1.11 802.3ah Point-to-Point
4.1.12 802.3ah EPON
4.1.13 Fibre to the Curb (FttC) and VDSL
4.1.14 Single and multi-carrier modulation techniques
4.1.15 DMT - OFDM
4.1.16 Early, non-ITU, standards
4.1.17 ITU G.993.2 VDSL2
4.1.18 Ethernet rather than ATM for DSL
4.1.19 Competition implications
4.1.20 ADSL2+/VDSL Futures
4.2 Long distance
4.2.1 Historical perspective
4.2.2 Optical fibre links
Exhibit 1 - Residential Broadband (BB) - growth predictions - next 10 years
Exhibit 2 - Access network technologies
Exhibit 3 - Current broadband services
Exhibit 4 - Residential Broadband (BB) - growth predictions - next 10 years
Exhibit 5 - Broadband - Infrastructure blueprint
Exhibit 6 - RBOC fibre optic network build out - July 2006
Exhibit 7 - FibreWired Network in Canada
Exhibit 8 - FttN Group of competitive carriers in Australia
Exhibit 9 - Cooperation scenarios in Australia
Exhibit 10 - Fibre network overview by provider in New Zealand - 2006
Exhibit 11 - ITU VDSL band-plans
Exhibit 12 - G.993.2 VDSL2 profiles
Exhibit 13 - Access node deployment scenarios

Table 1 - FttH subscribers by region - mid 2006
Table 2 - Europe - Fttx subscribers and homes passed - 2004 - 2005
Table 3 - Asia - FttH subscribers - 2005, 2009
Table 4 - FttH homes passed and connected in the USA - 2001 - 2006
Table 5 - FttH communities and states in the USA - 2004 - 2006
Table 6 - RBOC, CLEC, ILEC and Muni FttH communities in the USA - May 2006
Table 7 - Non-RBOC and overall FttH take-up rates in the USA - 2002 - 2005
Table 8 - FttH growth in Japan - 2001 - 2006

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