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Denmark - Telecoms, IP Networks, Digital Media and Forecasts


Attention: There is an updated edition available for this report.

FttH network reach expected to grow by a third in 2012

BuddeComm’s half-yearly publication, Denmark - Telecoms, IP Networks, Digital Media and Forecasts, provides a comprehensive overview of the trends and developments in the telecoms and digital media sectors in one of Europe’s more progressive markets. The report includes the regulator’s market data for the first half of 2011, data from its ‘Broadband Survey 2011’ report, telcos’ operating and financial data to end-2011, and market developments into 2012.

Telecom sector background

Denmark’s competitive telecom sector has been stimulated by the government’s efforts to develop wide-scale FttH services capable of 1Gb/s by 2020. The excellent fixed-line platform is complemented by regulatory measures to allow MNOs to refarm spectrum for 3G and 4G use, while an imminent auction for 800MHz spectrum will further push mobile broadband connectivity in coming years. Fixed-line telephony penetration is low, and continues to fall as consumers adopt VoIP and mobile alternatives. Overall revenue has been affected by the poor economic climate, being stagnant since 2008. This has also affected investment among telcos, which have concentrated on expanding their mobile and fibre-based networks, and securing spectrum.

Broadband sector

Denmark’s broadband penetration is among the highest in the world. DSL accounts for more than half of all lines though this lead will diminish steadily in coming years as consumers are migrated to alternative FttH networks. The cable sector, which reaches two-thirds of premises, is likely to be resilient as a result of network upgrades by the dominant players YouSee, Stofa and Dansk Kabel. Fibre is the fastest developing sector, with the number of reached premises expected to grow by a third in 2012. By the end of 2012 more than half of all premises will be able to access 100Mb/s services.

Mobile sector

The mature mobile market in coming years will be focussed on the data sector. MNOs have expanded HSPA and LTE capabilities using the recently auctioned 2.6GHz band, while an auction later in 2012 will make 800MHz frequencies available. MNOs have also begun marketing LTE-compatible smartphones and tablets, enabling consumers to move away from dongles. Mobile data will represent a growing proportion of revenue in coming years, offsetting declining voice revenue.

Key telecom parameters – 2010; 2013
Sector
2010
2013 (e)
Subscribers by sector (million):
Fixed broadband subscribers
2.15
2.49
Mobile broadband (dedicated cards)
0.79
0.98
Mobile phone
7.72
9.25
Fixed-line telephony
1.79
1.35
Penetration by sector:
Broadband
38%
48%
Mobile
136%
147%
Fixed-line
32%
25%
(Source: BuddeComm)

Market Highlights

Licensees for spectrum the 800MHz band must provide mobile broadband services of at least 10Mb/s. Spectrum will be available from the beginning of 2013 with coverage obligations to be fulfilled by 2015.

The cable sector has been consolidated to two main players: TDC’s YouSee and Stofa. These operators now enjoyed greater scale to invest in DOCSIS3.0 technology and so retain customers in areas where FttH is being rolled out.

The government has continued with measures to facilitate municipal access to fibre infrastructure in a bid to ensure that 80% households have a 50Mb/s service by 2013, and that 1Gb/s services are widely available by 2020. Sympathetic regulatory treatment will propel the fibre sector in coming years, with Denmark expected to have among the more concentrated FttH networks in Europe within the next decade. In 2012, the reach of FttX networks is expected to increase by at least 35%.

This report is essential reading for those needing high level strategic information and objective analysis on the telecom sector in Denmark. It provides further information on:

Market liberalisation and regulatory issues;
The impact of the global economic crisis;
Telecoms operators – privatisation, acquisitions, new licences;
Mobile data market developments in coming years in light of spectrum auctions and new license awards in 2012;
3G developments, regulatory issues and technologies including HSPA and LTE;
Broadband migration to an FttH architecture;
Historical and current subscriber statistics and forecasts;
ARPU statistics and forecasts.

Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year.


1. Key Statistics
2. Telecommunications Market
2.1 Overview of Denmark’s telecom market
3. Regulatory Environment
3.1 History
3.1.1 Revised NFR
3.2 Regulatory authority
3.2.1 National IT and Telecom Agency (NTA)
3.3 Telecom sector liberalisation in Denmark
3.3.1 Privatisation of Tele Danmark
3.3.2 Interconnect
3.3.3 Access
3.3.4 Number portability (NP)
3.3.5 Carrier PreSelection (CPS)
4. Fixed Network Operators in Denmark
4.1 Overview of operators
4.2 TDC
4.2.1 Company restructure
4.3 Telenor Denmark
4.4 TeliaSonera Denmark
5. Telecommunications Infrastructure
5.1 National telecom network
5.2 Alternative networks
5.3 International
5.3.1 Submarine cable networks
5.3.2 Satellite networks
6. Broadband Market
6.1 Overview
6.1.1 Regulatory issues
6.1.2 Government support
6.1.3 Broadband statistics
6.2 Cable modems
6.3 Asymmetrical Digital Subscriber Line (ADSL)
6.3.1 Very High Data Rate DSL (VDSL)
6.4 Fibre-to-the-Home (FttH) networks
6.4.1 Community networks
6.4.2 TDC
6.5 Broadband Powerline (BPL)
6.6 Wireless broadband
6.6.1 WiMAX
6.6.2 Satellite
6.6.3 Mobile broadband
7. Digital Media
7.1 Overview of digital media
7.2 Key general trends
7.3 Digital media
7.3.1 Business models – bundled services
7.4 Regulatory issues
7.4.1 Overview
7.4.2 Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP)
7.5 Digital TV
7.5.1 Broadband (IPTV)
7.5.2 Video-on-Demand (VoD)
7.5.3 VoIP
7.5.4 Cable TV
7.5.5 Satellite-based digital pay TV developments
7.5.6 Digital Terrestrial TV (DTTV)
8. Mobile Communications
8.1 Overview of Denmark’s mobile market
8.1.1 Mobile statistics
8.1.2 Operator market shares
8.2 Regulatory issues
8.2.1 Spectrum regulations and spectrum auctions
8.2.2 Roaming
8.2.3 Mobile number portability
8.2.4 Mobile termination rates (MTRs)
8.2.5 Network sharing
8.3 Mobile technologies
8.3.1 Digital
8.3.2 Third Generation (3G) mobile
8.4 Major mobile operators
8.4.1 TDC
8.4.2 Telenor Denmark
8.4.3 Telia Danmark
8.4.4 3 Denmark
8.4.5 Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs)
8.5 Mobile voice services
8.5.1 Prepaid
8.6 Mobile Messaging
8.6.1 Short Message Service (SMS)
8.6.2 Multimedia Messaging Service (MMS)
8.7 Mobile data services
8.7.1 General Packet Radio Service (GPRS)
8.7.2 High-Speed Packet Access (HSPA)
8.7.3 Long-term evolution (LTE)
8.7.4 Unlicensed Mobile Access (UMA)
8.7.5 Mobile TV
8.7.6 TETRA (TErrestrial Trunked RAdio)
8.7.7 Femtocells
8.7.8 Near Field Communications
9. Forecasts
9.1 Broadband subscribers – 2007 - 2012; 2020
9.1.1 Scenario 1 – higher broadband subscriber growth
9.1.2 Scenario 2 – lower broadband subscriber growth
9.2 Notes on scenario forecasts
9.3 Mobile ARPU - 2005 - 2010; 2015
9.4 UMTS subscribers – 2006 - 2010; 2015
10. Glossary of Abbreviations
List of Tables, Charts and Exhibits
Table 1 – Country statistics Denmark – 2011 (e)
Table 2 – Telephone network statistics – 2012 (e)
Table 3 – Internet user statistics – 2012 (e)
Table 4 – Broadband statistics – 2012 (e)
Table 5 – Mobile statistics – 2012 (e)
Table 6 – National telecommunications authority
Table 7 – Telecom revenue by sector – 2004 - 2012
Table 8 – Telecom investment – 2007 - 2012
Table 9 – Penetration of telecoms services, by sector – 2003 - 2012
Table 10 – Fixed-line numbers ported per year – 2006 - 2011
Table 11 – Carrier PreSelection registrations – 2005 - 2011
Table 12 – Carrier selection market share by operator – 2008 - 2011
Table 13 – Outgoing fixed-line traffic by type – 2006 - 2012
Table 14 – Fixed network and ISDN lines – 2003 - 2011
Table 15 – TDC Group financial data – 2007 - 2011
Table 16 – TDC (consumer) revenue by sector – 2008 - 2011
Table 17 – TDC (business) revenue by sector – 2008 - 2011
Table 18 – TDC domestic subscribers per sector – 2009 - 2011
Table 19 – Telenor Denmark fixed-line revenue – 2006 - 2011
Table 20 – Telenor Denmark subscribers – DSL, VoIP, telephony and mobile – 2005 – 2011
Table 21 – TeliaSonera Denmark subscribers by sector – 2005 - 2011
Table 22 – TeliaSonera (Denmark) revenue by sector – 2006 - 2011
Table 23 – Fixed lines in service and teledensity – 1999 - 2012
Table 24 – Internet users and penetration rate – 1996 - 2013
Table 25 – Total internet subscribers and penetration rate – 2004 - 2013
Table 26 – Dial-up internet subscribers – 2007 - 2012
Table 27 – Broadband penetration by technology – 2007 - 2011
Table 28 – Total fixed-line broadband subscribers by sector – 2001 - 2013
Table 29 – Total fixed-line broadband penetration – 2001 - 2013
Table 30 – Broadband access speeds by proportion of premises – 2009 - 2011
Table 31 – Broadband subscribers by alternative technologies – 2007 – 2011
Table 32 – Broadband subscribers by data speed – 2008 - 2011
Table 33 – YouSee subscribers by sector – 2007 - 2011
Table 34 – YouSee revenue by sector – 2007 - 2011
Table 35 – YouSee revenue by sector – 2007 – 2011
Table 36 – YouSee financial data – 2007 - 2011
Table 37 – Cable broadband service provider market shares by operator – 2007 - 2011
Table 38 – Cable broadband subscribers by operator – 2008 - 2011
Table 39 – TDC broadband subscribers – 2008 - 2011
Table 40 – DSL subscribers by access type– 2006 - 2011
Table 41 – TeliaSonera Denmark broadband subscribers and ARPU – 2007 - 2011
Table 42 – Telenor Denmark broadband subscribers – 2007 - 2011
Table 43 – DSL market share by operator – 2007 - 2011
Table 44 – DSL subscribers by operator – 2008 - 2011
Table 45 – Proportion of DSL subscriptions by access type – 2004 - 2010
Table 46 – Fibre broadband subscribers – 2005 - 2013
Table 47 – Fibre broadband subscribers by operator – 2008 - 2011
Table 48 – Wireless broadband subscribers by type – 2006 - 2011
Table 49 – WiMAX subscribers by operator – 2008 - 2011
Table 50 – Mobile broadband subscribers by type – 2008 - 2011
Table 51 – TDC mobile broadband subscribers – 2008 - 2011
Table 52 – Triple play subscribers – 2005 - 2012
Table 53 – Triple play subscribers by operator – 2009 - 2011
Table 54 – Bundled service subscribers – 2008 - 2012
Table 55 – TDC bundled service subscribers – 2009 - 2011
Table 56 – IPTV subscriptions by type – 2007 - 2011
Table 57 – IPTV subscribers by operator – 2009 - 2011
Table 58 – TDC TV subscribers (consumer) – 2007 - 2011
Table 59 – TDC VoD subscribers (consumer) – 2008 - 2010
Table 60 – VoIP subscribers and traffic in minutes – 2005 - 2012
Table 61 – VoIP penetration – 2007 - 2013
Table 62 – TDC VoIP subscribers – 2008 - 2011
Table 63 – Telia Denmark VoIP subscribers – 2009 - 2011
Table 64 – Telenor VoIP subscribers – 2008 - 2011
Table 65 – YouSee financial data – 2004 - 2011
Table 66 – YouSee cable TV subscribers – 2003 - 2011
Table 67 – Mobile operators, subscribers and annual change – 2011
Table 68 – Mobile subscribers by operator (regulator data) – 2008 - 2011
Table 69 – Mobile subscribers and penetration – 1999 - 2013
Table 70 – Mobile traffic in minutes – 2005 - 2013
Table 71 – Mobile services revenue – 2001 - 2013
Table 72 – Market share of subscribers by operator (regulator data) – 2007 - 2011
Table 73 – European roaming charges – 2007 - 2011
Table 74 – Annual mobile numbers ported (regulator data) – 2003 - 2011
Table 75 – TDC domestic subscribers (retail, wholesale and Telmore) – 2003 - 2011
Table 76 – TDC mobile services revenue – 2007 - 2011
Table 77 – Telenor Denmark mobile subscribers, proportion prepaid – 2004 - 2011
Table 78 – Telenor Denmark ARPU – 2004 - 2011
Table 79 – Telenor Denmark revenue – 2005 - 2011
Table 80 – Telenor Denmark revenue – 2005 – 2011
Table 81 – Telenor Denmark EBITDA, op. profit – 2005 - 2011
Table 82 – TeliaSonera (Denmark) mobile subscribers – 2005 - 2011
Table 83 – TeliaSonera (Denmark) mobile ARPU – 2007 - 2011
Table 84 – TeliaSonera (Denmark) mobile financial data – 2006 - 2011
Table 85 – 3 Denmark subscribers – 2007 - 2012
Table 86 – 3 Denmark revenue and growth by sector – 2007 - 2011
Table 87 – 3 Denmark annualised monthly ARPU and data proportion – 2007 - 2011
Table 88 – Prepaid subscriptions and percentage of subscribers – 1999 - 2011
Table 89 – Total SMS sent – 2003 - 2012
Table 90 – Average number of SMS sent per subscriber – 2004 - 2012
Table 91 – Service provider proportion of SMS messages sent – 2007 - 2011
Table 92 – Total MMS sent – 2003 - 2013
Table 93 – Service provider proportion of MMS messages sent – 2008 - 2011
Table 94 – Mobile data traffic – 2007 - 2013
Table 95 – Dedicated mobile data subscriptions – 2008 - 2012
Table 96 – TETRA subscribers by operator – 2006 - 2007
Table 97 – Forecast broadband subscribers – higher market growth scenario – 2010 - 2013; 2020
Table 98 – Forecast broadband subscribers – lower market growth scenario – 2010 - 2013; 2020
Table 99 – Forecast mobile ARPU – 2005 - 2010; 2015
Table 100 – Forecast UMTS subscribers – 2006 - 2010; 2015
Chart 1 – Outgoing fixed-line traffic by type – 2006 – 2012
Chart 2 – TDC Group financial data – 2007 – 2011
Chart 3 – Telenor Denmark subscribers – DSL, VoIP, telephony and mobile – 2005 – 2011
Chart 4 – TeliaSonera Denmark subscribers by sector – 2005 – 2011
Chart 5 – TeliaSonera (Denmark) revenue by sector – 2006 – 2011
Chart 6 – Fixed lines in service and teledensity – 2002 – 2012
Chart 7 – Internet users and penetration rate – 2003 – 2013
Chart 8 – Total internet subscribers and penetration rate – 2004 – 2013
Chart 9 – Total fixed-line broadband subscribers by sector; penetration – 2003 – 2013
Chart 10 – YouSee subscribers by sector – 2007 – 2011
Chart 11 – YouSee financial data – 2007 – 2011
Chart 12 – TDC DSL subscribers – 2008 – 2011
Chart 13 – Fibre broadband subscribers – 2005 – 2013
Chart 14 – Wireless broadband subscribers by type – 2006 – 2011
Chart 15 – IPTV subscriptions by type – 2007 – 2011
Chart 16 – YouSee financial data – 2004 – 2011
Chart 17 – Mobile subscribers and penetration – 2003 – 2013
Chart 18 – TDC domestic subscribers (retail, wholesale and Telmore) – 2003 – 2011
Chart 19 – TDC mobile services revenue – 2007 – 2011
Chart 20 – Telenor Denmark mobile subscribers, proportion prepaid – 2004 – 2011
Chart 21 – Telenor Denmark ARPU – 2004 – 2011
Chart 22 – Telenor Denmark EBITDA, op. profit – 2005 – 2011
Chart 23 – TeliaSonera (Denmark) mobile subscribers – 2005 – 2011
Chart 24 – Prepaid subscriptions and percentage of subscribers – 2001 – 2011
Exhibit 1 – EU – The New Regulatory Framework (NRF)
Exhibit 2 – Access and the local loop
Exhibit 3 – Overview of digital media
Exhibit 4 – Denmark’s 3G licensing results – 2001
Exhibit 5 – SMS and MMS roaming charges – 2010
Exhibit 6 – Premium SMS market overview – 2011

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