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Australia - Telecoms Industry - Statistics and Forecasts


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Australia – Telecom Market moving into 2013

Key trends and developments

Telstra has done exceptional well during 2011 and 2012 and set to continue this into 2013. Optus has been holding on but needs to come up with new innovations to progress further, the hope for Vodafone is that 2013 will see an end to their troubles and that they indeed are able to turn the corner and start reclaiming their position in the market. The second-tier market is making gains in broadband and they are stepping up IPTV and other OTT activities and these will then be bundled into their other product offerings. Although the bundled market often sees overall revenues fall, it generally maintains a higher ARPU. Also in 2013 further consolidation is expected.

It has become clear that OTT is ‘the new normal’ for the telecoms industry - with the emerging all-IP networks; telecoms services are basically moving to new business models. These services are seen as a threat by the traditional telcos and so far they have been unable to come back with a competitive reaction. The more likely scenario will be is that the telcos will remain in the access space and will offer wholesale services to the OTT and Apps providers as well as to an increasingly growing number of companies and sectors that are relying on the digital economy. Services here include data centres, cloud computing, data storage, content delivery and other value added infrastructure services.

Mobile and fixed infrastructure will increasing merge and in the end a fibre based network will support hundreds of thousands of smaller and bigger mobile stations delivering services to end users. It is estimated that mobile capacity need to grow a thousand fold over the next decade to cope with customer demand.

Industry and market statistics

Telstra continues to dominate the overall Australian telecom market although just under 60% market share of overall revenues in 2013. Market share continues to drop from the highs that it held in the early 2000s of around 80% market share.

The mobile broadband market is fast becoming a major income revenue stream for the providers, having taken over the mobile voice sector. But increased usage has caused data traffic jams on the 3G networks as the infrastructure was not designed for the rapid increase of traffic over the last couple of years.

Overall BuddeComm expects that the MNOs will have earned over $17.5 billion in revenue from mobile services by mid-2012 – a growth rate of just over 1% year-on-year. Future revenue growth will also be impacted because of increased prices from the MNOs, the MVNOs and the tactics that Vodafone will use after its network is fully upgraded. Although newer telephony services that LTE can provide have brought strong growth in the sector and these new services may increase revenue growth.

For the MNOs, the results of the latest financial year – Telstra’s total mobile revenue passed $8 billion, with Optus around $6 billion. VHA, the entity created with the merger of Vodafone and Hutchison, generated revenue close to $4.5 billion.

The release of 4G/LTE mobile broadband and increased uptake by consumers and businesses will certainly ease the issue in the short term, but as user uptake increases so will the amount of bandwidth consumed. Mobile data usage increased by nearly 80% year-on-year to mid-2012 with nearly seven terabytes downloaded over the air in a three-month period.

The second tier market has been dominated by industry consolidation, a process that is set to continue over coming years. Moving towards a structurally separated regulatory environment with a NBN at the horizon, size really does matter.

The other important development has been Telstra’s aggressive activities to increase their market shares and this has been hurting the 2nd tier market. This is clearly reflected in this year data, total revenues are under $3 billion, well under 10% of the total telecoms market in Australia. This again shows the dominance of in particular Telstra. This year we have left Vodafone out of the 2nd tier market segment, but for comparison reasons there are still references to them.

OTT - the new normal for the industry

It has become clear that OTT is ‘the new normal’ for the telecoms industry - with the emerging all-IP networks; telecoms services are basically moving to new business models. These services are seen as a threat by the traditional telcos and so far they have been unable to come back with a competitive reaction. The more likely scenario will be is that the telcos will remain in the access space and will offer wholesale services to the OTT and Apps providers as well as to an increasingly growing number of companies and sectors that are relying on the digital economy. Services here include data centres, cloud computing, data storage, content delivery and other value added infrastructure services.

Mobile and fixed infrastructure will increasing merge and in the end a fibre based network will support hundreds of thousands of smaller and bigger mobile stations delivering services to end users. It is estimated that mobile capacity need to grow a thousand fold over the next decade to cope with customer demand.

The Australian telecommunications market will change dramatically over the next ten years. Accelerated by government policies these changes will be driven by a total overhaul of the industry.

This will also transform the industry and developments such as cloud computing, M2M and Big Data will be accelerated. The Over-the-Top (OTT) players are also becoming more and more prominent in the telecoms industry and this will start blurring some of the borders between infrastructure, IT and applications,

The NBN will become the predominant infrastructure, and as a utilities-based network it will also provide its services to other sectors, such as healthcare, education and business. With these sectors involved we will see the industry developing specific new business models around infrastructure, ICT and retail. IPTV and other media and entertainment applications will also start to play a more important role. The question remains how successful the telcos will be in retail space.

They will have to decide where they want to play. Infrastructure will largely move to NBN Co, its contractors (eg, Telstra) and a few backhaul providers. Companies also have the opportunity to become the ICT providers to those other sectors. The larger sectors, in particular, will create a sizeable demand for value-added infrastructure services. The first of such contracts signed in the healthcare industry offers glimpses of such a future.

All of this will assist the industry to broaden itself and double its size to around $80 billion by 2020.


  • EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
  • TELECOMS MARKET MOVING INTO 2013
    • TELECOMS A VIBRANT AND CHANGING INDUSTRY5
    • TELCO INDUSTRY REMAINS UNDER PRESSURE
    • BUSINESS MODELS FOR TELCOS IN AN OTT WORLD
      • The changing nature of the network market
      • Networks critical for social and economic development
      • Higher level values are moving elsewhere
      • Where are the opportunities for the telcos?
    • INFRASTRUCTURE
      • The end of the line for PSTN and HFC networks
      • Open systems lead to `economies of scope'
      • The gigabyte household needs FttH access
    • BROADBAND IS ESSENTIAL FOR SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
    • THE NATIONAL BROADBAND NETWORK
      • The business opportunities of the POIs
      • The NBN and the opportunity for `virtual' players
    • THE INTERNET MONOPOLY
      • The all-powerful social network sites
      • Lack of a permission-based approach
      • Customer experience
      • The internet of things
      • Users have no control over their own data
      • Heaven for data-miners
      • USA-dominated control
      • Call for better internet governance
      • Reluctance from social networks to come to the party
      • Vulnerable user groups
      • Technological solutions
      • Conclusion
    • TRANS-SECTOR REGULATION
      • Regulations need to be rewritten
      • Fibre-to-the-Home (FttH) will change telecom models
      • Utilities-based regulation
      • Removing blockages
    • DIGITAL MEDIA
      • IPTV slow but steady progress
      • Smart connected TVs and online streaming
    • VALUE ADDED INFRASTRUCTURE SERVICES
      • Do we need infrastructure-based competition?
      • Shifting clouds
      • The IT complexity of cloud computing
      • M2M growth market for the industry
      • The compelling business of M2M and Big Data
    • MOBILE MARKET - INFRASTRUCTURE RUNNING OUT OF STEAM
      • Capacity requirements will be 1000x by 2020
      • Fixed Mobile Conversion (FMC)
      • Small cell networks
      • Heterogeneous networks
      • Muddling along
      • Mobile competition starts to bite in Australia
      • Is network sharing the answer
  • STATISTICAL OVERVIEW OF THE TELECOMS MARKET - BY PROVIDER
    • TOTAL TELECOMMUNICATIONS SERVICES MARKET
      • Revenue, revenue growth and market share by major provider
        • Table Total telecoms revenues by major providers - 2000 - 2013
        • Table Total telecoms service market share by major providers - 2003 - 2013
    • TELSTRA
      • Financial results by sector
        • Table Telstra Group total revenue and annual change - 2000 - 2012
        • Table Telstra Group revenue by service and annual change - 2011 - 2012
        • Table Telstra fixed telephony revenue and annual change - 2011 - 2012
        • Table Telstra PSTN products revenue and annual change - 2011 - 2012
        • Table Telstra mobile revenue and annual change - 2011 - 2012
        • Table Telstra fixed broadband revenue by service stream and annual change - 2011 - 2012
        • Table Telstra IP and data access revenue and annual change - 2011 - 2012
        • Table Telstra offshore controlled entities revenue and annual change - 2011 - 2012
      • Analysis of financial results
    • OPTUS
      • Financial results by sector
        • Table Optus overall operating revenue summary and annual change - 2000 - 2013
        • Table Optus revenue by major and minor service category - 2011 - 2012
        • Table Optus operating revenue by operating division - 2011 - 2012
        • Table Operational EBITDA by operating division - 2008 - 2012
      • Analysis of financial results
    • VODAFONE HUTCHISON AUSTRALIA
      • Background
      • Financial and operations overview FY 2012
        • Table HTA key metrics - financial overview - 2009 - 2012
        • Table Vodafone Australia revenue - 2009 - 2012
        • Table Vodafone - subscribers by type - 2009 - 2013
    • CAPITAL EXPENDITURE
      • Statistical overview by operator
        • Table Total capital expenditure by major network provider - 2009 - 2012
        • Table Annual change in total capital expenditure by major network provider - 2010 - 2012
  • STATISTICAL OVERVIEW OF THE TELECOMS MARKET – BY SERVICE
    • TOTAL TELCO MARKET BY MAJOR SERVICE
      • Table Total telecoms market - retail revenue by service - 2001 - 2013
      • Table Total telecoms market - annual retail growth by service - 2001 - 2013
      • Table Total telecoms market - retail market share by service - 2000 - 2013
    • WHOLESALE MARKET
      • The market in into 2013
      • Wholesale revenues in Australia
        • Table Wholesale market revenues by major supplier - 2000 - 2013
        • Table Wholesale market shares - by major supplier - 2000 - 2013
        • Table Annual change in wholesale market revenues by major supplier - 2000 - 2013
    • MOBILE MARKET
      • Market overview and analysis
        • Table Total mobile services market revenue and annual change - 2000 - 2013
        • Table Mobile services market revenue per major operator - 2000 - 2013
        • Table Annual change of mobile services market per major operator - 2000 - 2013
      • Revenue by service
        • Table Estimated proportion of mobile service revenue from voice and data - 2007 - 2013
      • Average revenue per user (ARPU)
        • Table Blended ARPU per month per major operator - 2000 - 2013
        • Table Blended ARPU per month per major operator - annual change - 2004 - 2013
    • BROADBAND MARKET
      • Internet access revenues
        • Table Internet access revenues (broadband and dial-up) by major provider - 2003 - 2013
        • Table Annual change in internet access revenues (broadband and dial-up) by major provider - 2004 – 2013
        • Table Market share of internet access revenues (broadband and dial-up) by major provider - 2004 – 2013
  • 2ND-TIER TELCO MARKET 2012
    • SERVICE REVENUES AND MARKET SHARES
      • Total market by major service
        • Table Estimated selected second-tier telco revenues by service - 2010 - 2012
        • Table Selected second-tier telco revenues by service - annual change - 2010 - 2012
        • Table Estimated selected second-tier telco revenues by service - 2003 - 2009
        • Table Selected second-tier telco revenues by service - annual change - 2004 - 2009
      • Total market by major players
        • Table Second-tier telcos - revenue by provider - 2009 - 2012
        • Table Second-tier telcos - revenue by major provider - annual change - 2009 - 2012
        • Table Second-tier telcos - revenue by major provider - relative market shares - 2009 - 2012
        • Table Second-tier telcos - revenue by provider (historic) - 2004 - 2007
        • Table Second-tier telcos - revenue by major provider (historic) - relative market shares - 2004 – 2007
  • MARKET FORECASTS - 2015, 2020
    • INDUSTRY TRANSFORMATION
    • FIXED INFRASTRUCTURE MARKET
    • WHOLESALE MARKET
    • THE RETAIL MARKET
    • PENETRATION FORECASTS
      • Roll out penetration
        • Table NBN take up rates first release sites
      • Broadband access penetration
        • Table Broadband uptake* scenario forecasts - 2015; 2020 (household penetration)
      • Stats and demographics for the 2012-2015 NBN footprint
    • THE MOBILE MARKET
    • THE DIGITAL ECONOMY - TRANS-SECTOR MARKET
      • Forecasts - 2015; 2020
      • The digital media market
      • Business market survey
        • Table Impacts of the NBN on industry output at 2020 (% change)
    • BUSINESS MODELS AND MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS (M&A)
      • Fixed market scenarios
      • Mobile market scenarios
  • BROADBAND MARKET
    • STATISTICAL OVERVIEW
      • Overall size of the market
        • Table Total broadband subscribers and annual change - 2000 - 2013
        • Table Broadband subscribers - total market by technology - 2008 - 2012
        • Table Broadband market - overall market share by technology - 2003 - 2012
      • Access revenues
        • Table Broadband access revenues by major provider - 2005 - 2012
        • Table Annual change in broadband access revenues by major provider - 2006 - 2012
        • Table Market share of broadband access revenues by major provider - 2005 - 2012
        • Table Estimated fixed broadband ARPUs - 2006 - 2012
      • Other surveys and statistics
        • Table Internet subscribers by access technology - 2008 - 2012
        • Table Broadband market share by technology and annual change - 2008 - 2012
        • Table Terabytes of data downloaded by access technology - 2010 - 2012
        • Table Terabytes of data downloaded by access technology (historic) - 2008 - 2009
        • Table Business, government and household internet subscribers (historic) - 2007 - 2009
        • Table Subscribers' average speed in Australia versus selected countries - 2010 - 2012
        • Table Internet subscribers by download speed - 2009 - 2012
        • Table Business, government and household internet subscribers by download speed - 2009 – 2012
      • ISP market overview
        • Table Number of ISPs by size in the Australian market - 2008 - 2012
        • Table Number of ISPs - 2001 - 2012
      • Benchmarking with other countries
        • Table Fixed broadband access among internet households - selected countries - 2006 - 2011
        • Table Market penetration of households with broadband access as a percentage of all households - Australia and selected countries - 2009 – 2011
        • Table Top ten OECD countries by wireless broadband subscriptions - 2011
    • DSLMARKET
      • Regulatory environment - analysis
      • DSL infrastructure
        • Table Number of infrastructure providers by number of ADSL-enabled exchanges - 2007 - 2008; 2010 – 2011
        • Table Number of DSLAMs by major providers - 2009 - 2012
        • Table Total number of DSLAMs - 2006 - 2012
        • Table Number of ADSL and ADSL2+-enabled exchanges - 2012
        • Table Top Hat proposed and enabled ADSL2 exchanges - 2011 - 2012
      • Brief overview of broadband providers market
        • Table ISP customer satisfaction ratings of selected ISPs - 2010 - 2011
        • Table Broadband DSL retail subscribers by major provider - 2008 - 2012
        • Table Total business and residential broadband subscribers - 2006 - 2013
    • BUSINESSMARKET
      • Market trends
        • Table Business takeup of broadband by access type - 2010 - 2012
      • Business market surveys
        • Table SME online trends - 2011 - 2012
        • Table SME computer equipment ownership trends - 1999 - 2012
        • Table Computer software and hardware expenditure - SMEs versus medium businesses - 2001 – 2012
        • Table Business trends in internet connections - 1998 - 2012
        • Table SMEs internet access methods, by technology - 2010 - 2012
        • Table Top 10 current uses of the internet by SMEs - 2010 - 2012
      • Business customer expenditure on telecoms
        • Table Estimated telco product mix of business customer spend - 2013(e)
        • Table Estimated business and government market spending - 2013(e)
        • Table Providers' market share - 2013(e)
        • Table Revenue mix - total spend of telecoms - SME market - 2013(e)
    • RESIDENTIAL MARKET
      • Statistical overview residential market - total telecoms
        • Table Revenue mix - total spend of telecoms - residential market - 2013
        • Table Service providers' market share and revenue in the residential market - 2013
      • Internet household statistics
        • Table Total households versus internet enabled households - 1999 - 2012
        • Table Broadband component of internet enabled households - 2005 - 2012; 2015
        • Table Internet access households with children - 2005 - 2009; 2010 - 2011
        • Table Internet usage by age group - 2010
      • Trends in the residential market
        • Table Data usage by users - 2008 - 2012
        • Table Dial-up and non-dial-up internet subscribers - 2003 - 2012
      • Household use of technology
        • Table Computerisation in the home - 2012
        • Table Top 5 social networking age groups - 2011 - 2012
      • Other residential market surveys
        • Table Weekly internet usage by age group - 2012
        • Table Total new complaints to the TIO - 2006 - 2012
        • Table Number of complaints to the TIO - by levels - 2011 - 2012
  • MOBILE COMMUNICATIONS MARKET
    • REVENUE OVERVIEW
      • Statistical sources
      • Total mobile services revenue and forecasts
        • Table Total mobile services market revenue and annual change - 1993 - 2014
      • Operator statistics
        • Table Mobile services market revenue per major operator - 1993 - 2014
        • Table Annual change of mobile services market revenue per major operator - 1994; 1997; 2000 – 2014
        • Table Annual change of mobile services market share per major operator - 2000 - 2013
        • Table Estimated proportion of mobile service revenue from voice services - 2007 - 2013
        • Table Total mobile voice revenue per major operator - 2007 - 2013
        • Table Mobile voice revenue per major operator as a proportion of total mobile services revenue - 2007 – 2013
        • Table Mobile data revenue per major operator - 2007 - 2012
        • Table Annual change in data revenue per major operator as a proportion of total mobile services revenue - 2008 – 2012
        • Table Blended ARPU per month per major operator - 2000 - 2012
        • Table Blended ARPU per month per major operator - annual change - 2004 - 2012
        • Table Postpaid ARPU per month - Telstra, Optus and Vodafone - 2004 - 2010
        • Table Mobile data ARPU per month - Telstra and Hutchison - 2004 - 2010
    • SUBSCRIBER STATISTICS
      • Statistical sources
      • Mobile subscriber statistics
        • Table Mobile market subscribers, penetration rate and annual change - 2000 - 2012
        • Table Mobile subscribers by carrier - 1993; 1997; 2000 - 2013
        • Table Annual change of mobile subscribers by carrier - 1995; 1997; 2000 - 2013
        • Table Mobile subscriber market share by carrier - 1993; 1997; 2000 - 2013
        • Table 3G mobile subscribers by carrier - 2003 - 2012
        • Table Annual change of 3G mobile subscribers by carrier - 2007 - 2012
        • Table Proportion of 3G mobile subscribers versus total subscribers by carrier - 2006 - 2012
        • Table 2G mobile subscribers by carrier - 2006 - 2012
        • Table Annual change of 2G mobile subscribers by carrier - 2006 - 2012
        • Table Prepaid subscribers by mobile network operator - 2006 - 2013
        • Table Prepaid subscribers market share by mobile network operator - 2006 - 2013
        • Table Number of mobile phone services in operation - prepaid and postpaid - 2006 - 2013
        • Table Wholesale subscribers - Telstra and Optus - 2006 - 2013
  • MOBILE BROADBAND
    • Market overview and analysis
      • Growth slowly tapering off
      • Infrastructure to drive further expansion
      • Applications drive the market
      • Spectrum shortage
      • Mobile broadband revolution set to change the industry
      • Hardware drives applications
      • Mobile broadband to drive structural change
      • User prices remain high
      • Use of Unified Communications increasing
      • Smartphones driving data usage
      • Wireless broadband market statistics
        • Table Wireless broadband subscribers by access type and annual change - 2007 - 2012
        • Table 3G mobile broadband subscribers by mobile network operator - 2007 - 2012
        • Table Estimated mobile broadband data downloaded in Petabytes - 2007 - 2012; 2015
        • Table Estimated mobile broadband revenues and annual change - 2007 - 2012
        • Table Mobile broadband monthly ARPU - 2007 - 2012
        • Table Estimated mobile data revenue revenues by mobile network operator - 2008 - 2012
        • Table Fixed wireless broadband subscribers by major operator - 2008 - 2012
        • Table WiFi hotspots at its peak in the late 2000s
      • Forecasts and other developments
        • Table Forecast mobile broadband and voice revenues - 2008; 2013; 2018
      • Australia - mobile media - premium rate SMS (PSMS) portals and apps
  • GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS

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