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2007 Australia - Telecoms Industry - Statistics and Forecasts


Attention: There is an updated edition available for this report.

For those needing detailed revenues, forecasting and analysis on the Australian telecommunications market, this report provides essential reading and gives in-depth information on:

  • Revenue, annual growth and market share statistics.
  • Analysis and revenue forecasting to 2015.
  • Market statistics segmentation by voice, mobile and data.
  • Market segmentation by major provider.
  • Overview and analysis of the 2nd tier telco market as well as Telstra and Optus.
  • Mobile and broadband statistics and overviews.


This report provides revenue, revenue growth statistics and analysis for the telecommunications market by major service between 2000 and 2007, as well as our market estimates for 2008 and 2009. The total telecoms service market is segmented according to telecommunications service: local access, mobile and data, as well as by major provider (Telstra, Optus and other providers). Detailed revenue and forecasting statistics and analyses are also included separately for the wholesale, mobile, data and broadband markets, with forecasts for 2008/09. Higher level forecasting is also provided to 2015.

BuddeComm estimates that the overall telecoms market grew by 5.2% to $36.6 billion in the 12 months to June 2007. Growth is expected to subside over the next two years as Telstra is forced to begin a period of transformation and rationalisation that has already been evident in many European countries. Overall telecoms market growth is expected to drop to 4.1% by 2008 and 3.4% by 2009.

Telstra maintains its stranglehold on the wholesale market with revenues of just under $3 billion in 2007, which constituted just over 70% of the $4.2 billion wholesale market. The total 2nd tier market (including wholesale revenues) grew at around 7.9% in 2007 to $9.2 billion and we expect that the growth rate will drop slightly to around 6% in 2008 and then maintain this level moving into 2009. For more information, see chapters 4.2, page 23 and chapter 9, page 60.

Industry overview

Telstra’s Retail broadband subscribers jumped 60% to 2.4 million, and market share increased from 45% to 47%. In fact, retail broadband for the first time exceeded the dollar decline in PSTN revenues. For more information, see chapter 5.2, page 30. Optus is the follower that must challenge the incumbent. It is starting to feel the pinch of a mobile market that has almost reached the point of saturation, local access revenue is declining and it has been slow in its broadband push.

After some very tough years the 2nd tier market is finally turning the corner, although still struggling. Regulations are finally started to fall in place that are providing the market with an economic viable wholesale platform. For more information, see chapter 5.4, page 34. With good wholesale prices in place, by late 2007 the industry has increased the number of lines which they now operate independently from Telstra.

The key drivers here are players such as Optus, PowerTel, iiNet and Internode. Within the next few years we will see broadband access becoming near universal, either through fixed or wireless connections. This will lead to further commoditisation and will see more consolidation.

While WiMAX will in the short term not have a major impact on the overall market, wireless broadband developments in regional markets and in niche metropolitan markets will certainly also allow for innovations and expansion.

Fixed line and data

The fixed-line voice market (voice calls and local access) has been losing overall market share over the past few years and by 2009 BuddeComm expects the fixed-line voice market to drop to just 28% of the overall market. For more information, see chapter 4.1, page 22.

The data market continues to outpace other segment in terms of growth and market share. Up to 2006, mobile was the key driver of growth of the overall telecoms market; however, as the market is rapidly approaching saturation, growth has already begun to subside in this sector.

Mobile

Growth in mobile subscribers is slowing and ARPUs have been steadily declining over the past few years; however, by 2007 ARPUs across all operators had stabilised, driven in part by the take-up of higher spending capped plans and increased mobile data usage. For more information, see chapter 10, page 75.

In addition to a market that has almost approached saturation, operators’ revenue growths will be modest from 2008 onwards. Growth was around 8.5% for 2006 and 10.3% in 2007 and we expect this to gradually taper off further to around 7.2% in 2008 and 5.0% in 2010. Subscriber growth reached 7% in 2007 and we predict that growth will subside to 4% in 2008 and reduce further to only 2.0% in 2010.

Broadband

Internet access revenues (dial-up and broadband) showed very strong growth in 2006 and 2007 driven by strong uptake of broadband. For more information, see chapter 11, page 94.

The revenue growth rate for 2006 was 27% compared with 33% in 2007. Strong growth is expected to continue moving into 2008, although the market probably has peaked in 2007.

Telstra is expected to increase its overall market share of Internet access revenues moving into 2008, extending its market share from 36% in 2007 to 39% in 2008.

By late 2007 there was still pent-up demand for another 1 million users and by 2008 broadband penetration in Australia will cross the 5 million mark.

1. THE MARKET MOVING INTO 2008
1.1 Statistical overview
1.2 Are you ready for 2008?
1.3 Local industry developments
1.3.1 Weak government policies cause industry disruption
1.3.2 Telstra’s destructive behaviour
1.3.3 Rest of industry brought to the brink
1.3.4 Regional telecommunications suffer at the hands of Telstra
1.3.5 Telstra’s Mexican stand-off
1.3.6 Structural changes needed via regulation
1.3.7 Smaller operators seize market opportunities
1.4 The converging landscape
1.4.1 Telecoms access models undergo fundamental changes
1.4.2 Rapidly changing voice market
1.4.3 IPTV
1.4.4 WiMAX
1.4.5 Digital media will be the key market driver
1.5 Corporate markets
2. THE INDUSTRY IN 2007
2.1 The global telco boom continues - profits and investments are up again
2.2 Growth opportunities still exist in a subdued Australian market
2.3 Market segment boundaries are disappearing
2.4 Telstra remains dominant, but cracks in its armour begin to appear
2.5 OPEL network gives Optus real market opportunity
2.6 Primus and AAPT continue to struggle
2.7 Mobile operators continue to hold onto lucrative empires
2.8 Broadband success story
2.9 Mexican standoff necessitates revised VoIP forecast
2.10 Fixed and mobile telephone is converging
2.11 HSPA threat to SMS
3. COMPETITION ISSUES
3.1 Telstra is fuelling the competition
3.2 Let the ACCC do its job
3.3 Yet another panel to investigate telecoms
3.4 ACCC needs to facilitate NGN industry workgroup
3.5 Other networks
3.5.1 The OPEL Network (separate report)
3.5.2 National fibre networks (separate report)
4. REVENUE STATISTICS, ANALYSIS & FORECASTING (BY SERVICE)
4.1 Total telco market by major service
4.2 Wholesale market
4.3 Mobile market
4.4 Data and broadband market
4.5 Internet access revenues - broadband and dial-up
4.6 Data market
5. REVENUE STATISTICS, ANALYSIS & FORECASTING (BY PROVIDER)
5.1 Revenue, revenue growth and market share by major provider
5.2 Telstra
5.3 Optus
5.4 2nd tier market
6. REVENUES, FORECASTS & MARKET SHARES 2ND-TIER TELCOS
6.1 Market analyses
6.1.1 Industry overview
6.2 Broadband
6.2.1 The big broadband trends
6.2.2 Smart meters
6.3 Mobile and wireless
6.4 Govt policies and regulatory opportunities
6.5 Revenues, forecasts and market shares
6.5.1 Total market by major service
6.5.2 Total market by major players
6.6 Strategy overviews of a selection of the key players
6.6.1 iiNet
6.6.2 People Telecom
6.6.3 Primus
6.6.4 AAPT aligns with PowerTel
6.6.5 Commander
6.6.6 Macquarie Telecom
6.6.7 Soul
7. FORECASTING (QUALITATIVE) 2007
7.1 The market in ten years time
7.2 Industry restructuring
7.3 Industry-specific forecasts
7.3.1 Fixed networks and services
7.3.2 Mobile telecoms
7.3.3 Broadband - as a concept
7.3.4 Digital media
7.4 Forecasting productivity growth 2004 to 2024
8. REVENUE FORECASTS 2005 - 2015
8.1 By markets
8.2 By-products
8.2.1 Overall market
8.2.2 Access market
8.2.3 Voice market
8.2.4 Content
8.3 By industry
8.4 Where to go from here?
9. WHOLESALE MARKET
9.1 Wholesale market 2007
9.1.1 The wholesale market in 2007
9.1.2 Industry developments
9.1.3 Market developments
9.1.4 Wholesale revenues in Australia
9.1.5 Wholesale margins
9.1.6 The ongoing saga of Internet peering
9.1.7 Key wholesale services
9.1.8 Dark fibre market
9.2 Internet market
9.2.1 Market statistics
9.2.2 Industry Issues
9.2.3 Market developments
9.2.4 Wholesale services
10. MOBILE COMMUNICATIONS
10.1 Revenue overview
10.1.1 The market in 2007
10.1.2 Revenue statistics by operator and annual growth
10.1.3 Market shares by operator
10.1.4 Average Revenue per User (ARPU)
10.2 Subscriber statistics
10.2.1 Mobile subscriber overview
10.2.2 Business market
10.2.3 Residential market trends
10.2.4 Residential market surveys
11. ISP, INTERNET & BROADBAND MARKETS
11.1 ISP market overview - where is the industry heading?
11.1.1 Introduction
11.1.2 Triple play business models
11.1.3 VoIP
11.1.4 Broadband TV and IPTV
11.1.5 Internet media companies
11.1.6 Number of ISPs
11.2 ABS Internet activity survey (large ISPs only) - 2006 - 2007
11.2.1 Internet subscribers
11.2.2 Geographical data
11.2.3 Data downloaded
11.2.4 Internet subscribers and ISPs by access technology
11.2.5 Internet subscribers and ISPs by subscriber type and download speed
11.3 ABS survey of Internet and ISP activity - September 2006
11.3.1 Overview
11.3.2 Internet subscribers
11.3.3 Internet subscribers by size of ISP
11.3.4 Number of ISPs by size
11.3.5 Internet subscribers by region
11.3.6 Data downloaded
11.3.7 ISPs providing VoIP services
11.3.8 SPAM filtering
11.3.9 Internet access technologies
11.4 Other market surveys
11.4.1 Pulse market industry ICT survey
11.4.2 Ericsson Consumer Lab survey
11.4.3 Online advertising market surges - late 2006
11.5 Broadband introduction
11.6 Australia’s broadband ranking - mid-2007
11.7 The broadband market in numbers - 2006
11.7.1 ACCC Report 2006
11.8 Broadband subscriber statistics overview and forecasts
11.9 Broadband market shares
11.10 Broadband market statistics and forecasts
11.10.1 Broadband statistics
11.10.2 Internet access revenues (broadband and dial-up)
11.10.3 Residential market - where the long term potential exists
11.10.4 Long-term forecast - 2015
11.10.5 Broadband speeds - towards 2015
11.10.6 Spectacular developments in bandwidth
11.10.7 Market segment forecasts - 2005 - 2015
12. GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS


List of Exhibits


Exhibit 1 - New public network concept
Exhibit 2 - Key revenue trends - period to 2015
Exhibit 3 - Advice for information highway contenders
Exhibit 4 - Residential broadband, speed growth predictions - next ten years
Exhibit 5 - From Kilobit to Yottabit


List of Tables


Table 1 - Total telecoms market - retail revenue by service - 2000 - 2009
Table 2 - Total telecoms market - annual retail growth by service - 2001 - 2009
Table 3 - Total telecoms market - retail market share by service - 2000 - 2009
Table 4 - Wholesale market revenues by major supplier - 1997 - 2009
Table 5 - Wholesale market revenues by major supplier - annual change - 1998 - 2009
Table 6 - Total mobile services market revenue and annual growth - 1993 - 2010*
Table 7 - Mobile services market revenue per major operator - 1993 - 2008*
Table 8 - Annual growth of mobile services market per major operator - 1994 - 2008*
Table 9 - Mobile services revenue market share per major operator - 1997 - 2008*
Table 10 - Average ARPU ($ per month) across all operators - 1993 - 2008
Table 11 - Internet access revenues (dial-up and broadband) by major provider - 2003 - 2008
Table 12 - Annual change in Internet access revenues (dial-up and broadband) by major provider - 2004 - 2008
Table 13 - Market share of Internet access revenues (dial-up and broadband) by major provider- 2004 - 2008
Table 14 - Data market (including broadband) revenue by provider - 1999 - 2009
Table 15 - Data market (including broadband) annual growth by provider - 2000 - 2009
Table 16 - Data market (including broadband) - market share by provider - 2000 - 2009
Table 17 - Total telecoms service revenue by major provider - 2000 - 2009
Table 18 - Total telecoms service annual growth by major provider - 2001 - 2009
Table 19 - Total telecoms service market share by major provider - 2000 - 2009
Table 20 - Telstra Group total revenue and annual change - 1994 - 2009
Table 21 - Telstra fixed telephony revenue by service and annual change - 2006 - 2007
Table 22 - Telstra PSTN products revenue and annual change - 2006 - 2007
Table 23 - Telstra mobile revenue and annual change- 2006 - 2007
Table 24 - Telstra Internet & IP solutions revenue and annual change - 2006 - 2007
Table 25 - Telstra specialised data revenue and annual change - 2006 - 2007
Table 26 - Telstra business services and applications revenue and annual change - 2006 - 2007
Table 27 - Telstra - offshore controlled entities revenue and annual change - 2006 - 2007
Table 28 - Optus - overall operating revenue and annual change - 1994 - 2008
Table 29 - Optus revenue by major division and annual change - 2006 - 2007
Table 30 - Optus revenue by major and minor service category and annual change - 2006 - 2007
Table 31 - Operating revenue by operating division and annual change - 2006 - 2007
Table 32 - Second tier telco revenues by service - 2000 - 2009*
Table 33 - Second tier telco revenues by service - annual change - 2001 - 2009
Table 34 - Second tier telco revenues by service - 2000 - 2009
Table 35 - Second tier telco revenues by service - annual change - 2001 - 2009
Table 36 - Second tier telcos - revenue by provider - 2002 - 2008
Table 37 - Second tier telcos - revenue by major provider - annual growth - 2002 - 2008
Table 38 - Second tier telcos - revenue by major provider - market share - 2002 - 2008
Table 39 - Average predictions: annual growth rates - 2004 - 2024
Table 40 - Calculating predicted growth in real GDP per capita - 2004 - 2024
Table 41 - Communications forecasts - average annual change - from the MONASH model - 2004 - 2024
Table 42 - Telecommunications services revenue by market - 2005; 2007; 2010; 2015
Table 43 - Telecommunications services revenue % by market - 2005; 2007; 2010; 2015
Table 44 - Telecommunications services revenue by product - 2000; 2005; 2007; 2010; 2015
Table 45 - Telecommunications services revenue % by product - 2000; 2005; 2007; 2010; 2015
Table 46 - ‘Internet economy’ telco revenue - 2000; 2005; 2007; 2010; 2015
Table 47 - ‘Internet economy’ telco - percentage of revenue - 2000; 2005; 2007; 2010; 2015
Table 48 - ‘Internet economy’ telco revenue - 2005; 2007; 2010; 2015
Table 49 - Access % of total telecoms spend - 2000; 2005; 2007; 2010; 2015
Table 50 - Content/Advertising % total telecoms spend - 2000; 2005; 2007; 2010; 2015
Table 51 - Telecommunications services revenue by industry group - 2005; 2007; 2010; 2015
Table 52 - Telecommunications services revenue % by industry group - 2005; 2007; 2010; 2015
Table 53 - Wholesale market revenues by major supplier - 1997 - 2009
Table 54 - Wholesale market revenues by major supplier - annual change - 1998 - 2009
Table 55 - Business and residential wholesale margins by product - 2005; 2007
Table 56 - Wholesale margins by industry group - 2001 - 2006
Table 57 - Wholesale margins by industry group (historical) - 1996 - 2000
Table 58 - Metro Ethernet market - 2004; 2007; 2009
Table 59 - Internet dial-up and broadband wholesale revenues - 2006 - 2008
Table 60 - Wholesale margins by ISP categories
Table 61 - Costs of telco service required by ISPs - 2007
Table 62 - Market share international wholesale - 1998; 2001; 2005; 2007
Table 63 - Total mobile services market revenue and annual growth - 1993 - 2010*
Table 64 - Mobile services market revenue per major operator - 1993 - 2008*
Table 65 - Annual growth of mobile services market per major operator - 1994 - 2008*
Table 66 - Mobile services revenue market share per major operator - 1997 - 2008*
Table 67 - Average ARPU ($ per month) across all operators - 1993 - 2008
Table 68 - Blended ARPU ($ per month) by operator - 2003 - 2007
Table 69 - Blended ARPU by operator - annual growth - 2004 - 2007
Table 70 - Historical blended ARPU ($ per month) by operator - 1998 - 2002
Table 71 - Telstra prepaid, postpaid ARPU per month - 2004 - 2007
Table 72 - Telstra ARPU per month by network type - 2006 - 2007
Table 73 - Optus prepaid, postpaid and blended ARPU per month - 2004 - 2007
Table 74 - Vodafone prepaid, postpaid and blended ARPU per month - 2004 - 2007
Table 75 - Hutchison ARPU per month - 2004 - 2006
Table 76 - Hutchison 3G ARPU per month and annual change - 2006
Table 77 - Hutchinson non-voice ARPU per month - 2004 - 2006
Table 78 - Mobile market subscribers, penetration and annual growth - 1986 - 2010**
Table 79 - Mobile subscribers by carrier - 1993 - 2008*
Table 80 - Mobile subscribers by 3G network operator - 2003 - 2008
Table 81 - Annual growth rate of mobile subscribers by carrier - 1993 - 2008*
Table 82 - Telstra mobile subscribers by 2G/3G and annual change - 2006 - 2007
Table 83 - Telstra mobile subscribers by prepaid/postpaid and annual change - 2006 - 2007
Table 84 - Telstra wholesale subscribers by CDMA/GSM and annual change - 2006 - 2007
Table 85 - Mobile subscriber market share by carrier - 1993 - 2008*
Table 86 - Revenue market share per market segment (corporate, SME, residential) - 1994 - 2007
Table 87 - Mobile services revenue by operator - 2001 - 2005
Table 88 - Number of mobile services in operation - 2001 - 2005
Table 89 - Mobile services minutes of usage - 2001 -2005
Table 90 - Number of ISPs - 1995 - 2007
Table 91 - Dial-up Internet subscribers - business, government and households - March 2004 -March 2007
Table 92 - Non-dial-up Internet subscribers - business, government and households - March 2004 - March 2007
Table 93 - Total Internet subscribers - business, government and households - September 2006 - March 2007
Table 94 - Total dial-up & non-dial-up Internet subscribers - March 2004 - June 2006
Table 95 - Internet subscribers per state - June 2006 - March 2007
Table 96 - Dial-up data downloaded by households, business & government - 2004 - 2007
Table 97 - Non dial-up data downloaded by households, business & government - 2004 - 2007
Table 98 - Total data downloaded by dial-up and non dial-up - 2004 - 2007
Table 99 - Numbers of ISPs by size - September 2006 - March 2007
Table 100 - Internet subscribers by access technology - September 2006 - Mar 2007
Table 101 - Internet subscribers and ISPs by access technology - June 2006
Table 102 - Business/government Internet subscribers by download speed - Sept 2006 - Mar 2007
Table 103 - Household Internet subscribers by download speed - Sept 2006 - Mar 2007
Table 104 - All Internet subscribers by download speed - Sept 2006 - Mar 2007
Table 105 - ISPs & business/government Internet subscribers by download speed - June 2006
Table 106 - ISPs and household Internet subscribers by download speed - June 2006
Table 107 - All Internet subscribers & ISPs by download speed - June 2006
Table 108 - Internet households & business subscribers - 1985; 1990; 1995 - 2006
Table 109 - Dial-up and non-dial-up Internet subscribers - 2003 - 2006
Table 110 - Business, government and household Internet subscribers - 2005 - 2006
Table 111 - Proportion of business, government and household Internet subscribers - 2005 - 2006
Table 112 - Internet subscribers by business/govt and download speed - September 2006
Table 113 - Internet subscribers by type by ISP size - 2005 - 2006
Table 114 - Proportion of Internet subscribers by type by ISP size - 2005 - 2006
Table 115 - Total number of ISPs in Australia by size - 2000 - 2006
Table 116 - Internet subscribers per state - 2002 - 2006
Table 117 - Portion of Internet subscribers per state - 2002 - 2006
Table 118 - Data downloaded by households, business and government - 2000 - 2006
Table 119 - Data downloaded by dial-up and non-dial up users - 2003 - 2006
Table 120 - Volume of data downloaded by subscriber type by speed - 2005 - 2006
Table 121 - ISPs providing VoIP as part of bundled service offers by size of ISP - Sept 2006
Table 122 - Number of ISPs offering spam filtering products - September 2006
Table 123 - Internet subscribers by access technology - September 2006
Table 124 - Internet subscribers by access technology - March 2005
Table 125 - Broadband access among Internet households (selected countries) - 2001 - 2007
Table 126 - Broadband subscribers by technology - 2001 - 2006
Table 127 - Broadband subscribers - total market - retail values - 2002 - 2008
Table 128 - Broadband subscribers - total market - wholesale values - 2002 - 2008
Table 129 - Broadband subscribers - total market - annual growth - retail values - 2003 - 2008
Table 130 - Broadband subscribers - total market - annual growth - wholesale values - 2003 - 2008
Table 131 - Broadband subscribers - market shares - retail values - 2003 - 2008
Table 132 - Broadband subscribers - market shares - wholesale values - 2003 - 2008
Table 133 - Broadband subscribers - market shares (cable, ADSL totals) - retail values - 2003 - 2008
Table 134 - Broadband subscribers - total market - retail values - 2002 - 2008
Table 135 - Total broadband subscribers and annual change - 1996 - 2009
Table 136 - Percentage of broadband users at speeds 1.5Mb/s+ as % of total broadband users - 2005 - 2008
Table 137 - Internet access revenues (dial-up and broadband) by major provider - 2003 - 2008
Table 138 - Internet access revenues (dial-up and broadband) by major provider - annual change - 2003 - 2008
Table 139 - Internet access revenues (dial-up and broadband) by major provider- market share - 2003 - 2008
Table 140 - Revenue make-up scenario forecasting - 2010
Table 141 - Residential spend per household per annum - 2003; 2010; 2015
Table 142 - Overview total telecoms/Internet market - 2015
Table 143 - Number of countries with broadband speeds of more than 256kb/s - 2002 - 2006
Table 144 - Average broadband speeds selected countries - 2007
Table 145 - Why the average home will soon require 50Mb/s to the home
Table 146 - Broadband revenues - 2005; 2010; 2015
Table 147 - Broadband market share by technology - 2005; 2010; 2015

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