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Australia - National Broadband Network - Surveys, Statistics and Forecasts

Attention: There is an updated edition available for this report.

The Australian telecommunications market will change dramatically over the next ten years. Accelerated by government policies in relation to broadband infrastructure and the National Digital Economy Strategy these changes will drive the transformation of the industry.

This will be further accelerated by developments such as cloud computing, M2M and big data. The over-the-top (OTT) players are also becoming more and more prominent in the telecoms industry and this will start blurring some of the borders between infrastructure, IT and applications.

The NBN will become the predominant infrastructure, and as a utilities-based network it will also provide its services to other sectors, such as healthcare, education and business. With these sectors involved we will see the industry developing specific new business models around infrastructure, ICT and retail. IPTV and other media and entertainment applications will also begin to play a more important role.

The question remains – how successful will the telcos be in retail space?

They will have to decide where they want to play. Infrastructure will largely move to NBN Co, its contractors (eg, Telstra) and a few backhaul providers. Companies also have the opportunity to become the ICT providers to those other sectors. The larger sectors, in particular, will create a sizeable demand for value-added infrastructure services. The first of such contracts signed in the healthcare industry offers glimpses of such a future.

All of this will assist the industry to broaden itself and double its size to around $80 billion by 2020

1. Synopsis
2. Market Surveys
2.1 Poll prefers FttP plan above FttN plan
2.2 Support for fast broadband via an NBN
2.3 Customers prepared to pay for higher speeds
2.4 NBN Business Readiness Survey - 2013
2.5 Research into the NBN first release sites
2.6 Stats and demographics for the 2012-2015 NBN footprint
3. Industry transformation
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Fixed infrastructure market
3.3 Wholesale market
3.4 The retail market
4. Penetration Updates and forecasts
4.1 Early uptake indications
4.2 Broadband access penetration forecasts
5. The mobile market
6. The digital economy - trans-sector market
6.1 Forecasts – 2015; 2020
6.2 The digital media market
7. Business market survey
7.1 NBN impact on industry output by 2020
7.2 Summary of survey findings
8. Business models and mergers and acquisitions (M&A)
8.1 Fixed market scenarios
8.2 Mobile market scenarios
9. Forecasting notes
10. Related reports
Table 1 – NBN take up rates first release sites (pre-sales indications)
Table 2 – Broadband uptake* scenario forecasts – 2015; 2020 (household penetration)
Table 3 – Impacts of the NBN on industry output at 2020 (% change)
Chart 1 – Market share size of NBN trans-sector market – 2020
Chart 2 – NBN services revenue share estimates by market share – 2015
Chart 3 – NBN services revenue share estimates by market share – 2020

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