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Australia - The National Broadband Network - Moving into 2018

Australia - The National Broadband Network - Moving into 2018

FTTN now dominates future NBN rollouts

The Australian telecommunications market will change dramatically over the next ten years. Accelerated by government policies in relation to broadband infrastructure and the National Digital Economy Strategy these changes will drive the transformation of the telecom industry as well as a range of economic sectors dependent on telecom infrastructure.

These developments will be further accelerated by a range of dependent sectors such as cloud computing, M2M and big data. The over-the-top (OTT) players are also becoming more and more prominent in the telecoms industry and this will start blurring some of the borders between infrastructure, IT and applications.

In its original plan under the previous government, the nbn, the company overseeing Australia’s National Broadband Network (NBN) project, would connect 93% of homes, schools and workplaces to an optical fibre network (fibre-to-the-premises – FTTP), providing high-speed broadband services to Australians in urban and regional towns. The remaining 7% of premises would be connected to an LTE-based fixed wireless network, and for those outside these footprints to a satellite network.

With the arrival of a new government, the new plan was estimated to cost $41 billion (which has since been increased to approximately $50 billion). It is a move away from a pure FTTP plan to a multi-technology-mix approach deploying FTTP, Fibre-to-the-Node (FTTN), Fibre-to-the-Basement (FTTB) and cable (HFC) in addition to fixed wireless and satellite.

Under the new scheme, FTTP will connect 20% of premises by 2020, while a further 38% will be served by FTTN - using the VDSL technology - and another 34% of will receive services via existing HFC networks. Using this approach, the government anticipated that 91% of premises connected to fixed-line infrastructure would receive 50Mb/s by 2020.

Despite the downgrade the government promised that under the new plan at least 90% of Australians would get broadband speeds of about 50Mb/s by year-end 2019.

For the foreseeable future, a significant part of rural areas will have to rely on fixed wireless broadband. At the same time, this is an area that has the largest percentage of underserved customers, so there is good reason to give such rollouts priority.

With the NBN company finally also looking at bringing fibre deeper into the network (FTTC) this will potentially also benefit the development of 5G, depending on mobile operators being able to use the NBN network for that purpose.

NBN expects to be one of first operators outside of the US to commercially launch DOCSIS 3.1 technology as an upgrade path for the HFC network. The DOCSIS 3.1 standard, could vastly increase the speed of that HFC network footprint and at a much lower capital cost than deploying FTTP.

The deployment of Fibre-to-the-Premises in greenfield estates is a fast-growing industry, supported by an updated regulatory regime and pricing models. Recent legislation provides the framework for all new major housing sites to be supplied with FTTP infrastructure, or to be made ready (pit and pipe) for such deployment. The nbn has in place measures aimed at improving competition, minimising costs, and providing a level playing field for participants in this sector. Controversially, developers and home owners will be charged for the infrastructure costs in new housing developments.

The NBN will become the predominant infrastructure, and as a utilities-based network it will also provide its services to other sectors, such as healthcare, education and business. With these sectors involved we will see the industry developing specific new business models around infrastructure, ICT and retail. IPTV and other media and entertainment applications will also begin to play a more important role.

Key developments:

14 NBN wholesale providers now offer a mix of backhaul and wholesale aggregation services to RSPs.
FTTP will connect 20% of premises by 2020, while a further 38% will be served by FTTN.
nbn is expected to operate services based on the DOCSIS3.1 at the end of 2018, capable of delivering data at 1Gb/s.
It is also actively looking at other cable networking advances such as full-duplex DOCSIS technology, which is capable of 10Gbps symmetrical speeds.
Fibre-to-the-curb will be deployed to a potential footprint of up to 700,000 premises across the country.

Key companies mentioned in this report:

Optus, Telstra, nbn, LBNCo, OPENetworks, OptiComm, RedTrain, Pivit, Fibercorp, Austar; Ericsson; Visionstream; Optus, iiNet, Internode, Rivertel, CSIRO, Space Systems/Loral, Bordernet, Clear Networks, Harbour IT, SkyMesh, Active8me, Reachnet, ViaSat, Neighbourhood Cable, TransACT.


  • EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
  • MARKET ANALYSIS
    • NBN MAKING PROGRESS BUT DARK CLOUDS AHEAD
  • THE NBN COMPANY
    • INTRODUCTION
    • NBN WHOLESALE PROVIDER OVERVIEW
    • NBN STATISTICAL OVERVIEW
      • FY 2017
        • Table NBN Revenue Statistics - 2013 - 2017
        • Table NBN ARPU - 2013 - 2017
        • Table NBN Capital Expenditure - 2013 - 2017
        • Table Cost per premises - 2014 -2017
        • Table Cumulative End User Subscriptions by Technology - 2013 - 2017
        • Table Market Share - Subscriptions - 2013 - 2017
        • Table Cumulative Premises Ready for Service - 2016 - 2017
        • Table Market Share Premises Ready for Service - 2016 - 2017
        • Table Fixed Line Speed Tier Mix - 2016 - 2017
        • Table Fixed Wireless Speed Tier Mix - 2016 - 2017
        • Table Sky Muster Satellite Service Speed Tier Mix - 2016 - 2017
      • FY 2016
        • Table Key highlights in FY2016
        • Table NBN take-up rate - activated services vs serviceable premises - 2013-2016
        • Table Property, Plan, Equipment and Intangible Assets
        • Table FY 2017 Targets
    • BROADBAND MARKET SHARE BY PROVIDER
      • June 2017
        • Table FTTP - Market Share - by Provider - June 2017
        • Table FTTB -- Market Share - by Provider - June 2017
        • Table FTTN- Market Share - by Provider - June 2017
        • Table HFC- Market Share - by Provider - June 2017
        • Table Wireless - Market Share - by Provider - June 2017
        • Table Satellite - Market Share - by Provider - June 2017
      • December 2016
        • Table Market Share by technology for Broadband Circuits - (Dec 2016) FTTP
        • Table Market Share by technology for Broadband Circuits (Dec 2016) - FTTB
        • Table Market Share by technology for Broadband Circuits -(Dec 2016) FTTN
        • Table Market Share by technology for Broadband Circuits - (Dec 2016) Wireless
        • Table Market Share by technology for Broadband Circuits (Dec 2016) - Interim Satellite
      • June 2016
        • Table Market Share by technology for Broadband Circuits - (Jun 2016) FTTP
        • Table Market Share by technology for Broadband Circuits - (Jun 2016) FTTB
        • Table Market Share by technology for Broadband Circuits - (Jun 2016) FTTN
        • Table Market Share by technology for Broadband Circuits - (Jun 2016) Wireless
        • Table Market Share by technology for Broadband Circuits - (Jun 2016) Interim Satellite
      • Analysis
    • CORPORATE PLANS
      • NBN Corporate Plan 2017
      • NBN Corporate Plan for the period 2014 - 2018
        • Table Premises Ready for Service 2014-2018
        • Table Premises Activated 2014 - 2018
        • Table Technology mix - 2020
        • Table Weighted average cost per premise by technology
        • Table Key financial statistics NBN company
        • Table NBN 2018 target by state - Estimated number of premises under construction by September 2018
    • THE NETWORK PLAN
      • Overall design and architecture
      • User access to the network
      • The backhaul network
      • ACCC location of 121 POIs
        • Table List of points of interconnection to the National Broadband Network - November 2012
      • Points-of-interconnect (POI) architecture
      • PoI network redundancy
      • Paid for Network Extension
      • IPv6 transition
    • THREE YEAR CONSTRUCTION PLAN - 2015-2018
    • OTHER DEVELOPMENTS
      • NBN top-up 2016/17
      • Progress towards the Multi-Technology Mix
      • NBN Co buys TransACT
      • Mobile Backhaul
    • TELSTRA UPGRADES PIT AND PIPE INFRASTRUCTURE
    • NBN INFRASTRUCTURE CO-DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM
    • ANALYSES
      • Building Australia's white elephant - cheap buy for white knight Telstra
  • FIBRE-TO-THE-PREMISE (FTTP) AND FIBRE-TO-THE-BASEMENT (FTTB) ROLL OUTS
    • INTRODUCTION
    • NBN STATISTICS - FTTP
      • 2017
        • Table NBN revenue statistics FTTP / FTTP- FY 2013 - 2017
        • Table FTTP / FTTP subscriber statistics - 2013-2017
        • Table Annual FTTP / FTTP capital expenditure - FY 2013 - 2017
        • Table FTTP Cost per premise - FY 2014-2016
        • Table FTTP Greenfields rollouts 2014 - 2016
      • FTTP statistical overview 2014-2018
        • Table FTTP Premises Ready for Service 2014-2018
        • Table FTTP Premises Activated 2014 - 2018
        • Table FTTP Weighted average cost per premise by technology (rounded to the nearest 100)
      • Migration of business services
    • RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
      • Greenfields ready for deployment of MTM
      • Skinny Fibre to be deployed in New Housing Estates from 2017
    • FIBRE-TO-THE-BASEMENT (FTTB)
      • Multi dwelling units
      • TPG
      • Telstra tests FTTB product
    • OTHER DEVELOPMENTS
      • NBN Co outlines policies for fibre-on-demand
      • Cost of a NBN brownfields FTTP connection
    • THE FTTP GREENFIELD MARKET
      • Table FTTP Greenfields Rollouts 2014 - 2016
    • GREENFIELD POLICIES
      • New greenfield policy comes into play
    • GREENFIELD ROLLOUT DEVELOPMENTS OF NBN
      • Table Historic - Total internet subscribers - 2011 - 2015
      • Sydney's Doonside first to connect to the NBN
      • Nationwide roll out
        • Table Historic - NBN cost per Premises - 2014 - 2015
      • Greenfield construction contracts
    • FIBRE WHOLESALE FROM TELSTRA
    • FTTP MAJOR PLAYERS
      • LBNCo
      • OPENetworks
      • OptiComm
      • Pivit
      • Fibercorp
      • RedTrain
      • Other smaller providers
  • FIBRE-TO-THE-NODE (FTTN) AND VDSL
    • FTTH, FTTN STATISTICS
      • Table FttN expenditure - 2014 - 2016
      • Table NBN uptake rates FttH and FttN
      • FttN overview 2014-2018
        • Table FttN Roll Out 2014-2018 (cumulative (`000)
        • Table FttN - Weighted average cost per premise by technology (rounded nearest $100)
    • MARKET ANALYSIS
      • High-speed broadband take-up is increasing
      • Video explosion pushing fixed broadband
    • FIBRE-TO-THE-DISTRIBUTION-POINT / FIBRE-TO-THE CURB
      • Overview
      • Analysis
    • TELSTRA AIMS AT 1 MILLION NBN MARKET SHARE
    • G.FAST AND XG.FAST
      • G.Fast Overview
      • Analysis - NBN's `not.so.Fast' G.Fast
      • XG.FAST - still years away
    • THE VDSL MARKET
      • VDSL developments
      • VDSL vectoring
  • HFC NETWORKS
    • MARKET OVERVIEW
    • TECHNOLOGY
      • Hybrid Fibre Coax (HFC)
      • The DOCSIS standard
      • The next development for DOCSIS
      • Can Cable Networks Deliver a Gigabit?
      • HFC DOCSIS vs. fibre
    • NBN - HFC PROGRAM
      • Statistical overview
        • Table HFC Roll out plan 2016 - 2018
        • Table HFC Current Roll out status - 2016 - 2017
        • Table Weighted average cost per HFC premise (rounded nearest $100)
        • Table NBN capital expenditure - FY2015 - 2017
        • Table HFC- Market Share - by Provider - June 2017
      • Overall plan
      • FTTN and FTTB as infills for HFC
      • FTTdp to be used instead of Optus HFC network
      • Arris appointed supplier of the network
      • Roll out plan
      • HFC pilot in Queensland
    • MARKET STATISTICS AND ESTIMATES
      • Table Cable broadband subscribers by major operator and annual change - 2002 - 2017
    • TELSTRA
      • Background information
      • Network upgrades
    • OPTUS
      • Overview
        • Table Optus on-net broadband subscribers - 2009 - 2017
    • IINET/TRANSACT
    • BES/E-WIRE
    • HFC NETWORK DARWIN
    • INDUSTRY ANALYSIS
      • DOCSIS3.0 -v- DOCSIS3.1
      • Superfast Broadband Access Service (SBAS)
  • FIXED WIRELESS AND SATELLITE NETWORKS
    • INTRODUCTION
    • MARKET ANALYSIS
      • The role of the NBN in the development of 5G
    • STATISTICAL OVERVIEW
      • 2017
        • Table NBN Cost per premises fixed wireless - FY 2014 - 2017
        • Table FTTH Wireless Rollouts FY 2014 - 2017
        • Table NBN Capital expenditure fixed wireless - FY 2013 - 2017
        • Table NBN ARPU Fixed wireless - FY 2014-2016
      • 2014-2018 Corporate plan
        • Table Premises Ready for Wireless Services 2014 - 2018
        • Table Wireless Premises Activated 2014 - 2018 (cumulative (`000)
        • Table Weighted average cost per premise
    • NBN CO'S FIXED WIRELESS NETWORK
      • Services based on 2.3GHz spectrum
      • Construction plan
      • Visionstream to construct the network
      • Hills to do the home installations
      • Colocation and tower sharing
      • NBN facilitates wireless competition - Analysis
      • Fixed wireless rollouts
      • Other developments
    • THE NBN SATELLITE NETWORK
      • Launch of the satellites
      • Sky Muster
      • Ka-band satellites
      • Faster speeds with restrictions
      • doubling of data allowances with 2nd satellite
      • SkyMesh first with satellite retail pricing
      • Education and community applications
      • Interim satellite services (ISS)
        • Table Satellite Rollouts 2014 - 2016
      • Contracts
    • WHY WIRELESS BROADBAND WILL CO-EXIST WITH FIXED BROADBAND - ANALYSIS
  • OTHER STATISTICS AND SURVEYS
    • MARKET SURVEYS
      • International NBN Benchmarks
      • NBN to cost budget
      • Customers aren't buying fast broadband because that is not what they are being sold
      • Economic Benefit of the National Broadband Network
      • NBN support still strong
        • Table Support for NBN
      • Towards a Connected Australia - NBN Co Report 2015
      • FTTN modelling results
      • Broadband benefits for households
        • Table Benefits of broadband for individual households - a national framework
        • Table Scenarios - summary of benefits in 2020
      • NBN key to the creation of 3 million jobs by 2030
    • THE DIGITAL ECONOMY - TRANS-SECTOR MARKET
      • Forecasts - 2015; 2020
  • OVERVIEW OF MAJOR CONTRACTS
    • NBN MAJOR CONTRACTS 2014 - 2016
      • Introduction
      • Telstra wins $1.6 billion HFC deal
      • SC Services - Fixed Wireless services
      • Fixed-line partnerships with Telstra, Optus, Service Stream and BSA
      • Second round of construction deals
      • Five year contract for Service Stream
      • Telstra receives planning and design contract
      • Tata and Kordia win subsequent NBN design deals
      • Coriant - Optical transport network
      • HFC and maintenance contract for Telstra
      • NBN Co reviewed contracts
      • NBN bid to double installer numbers
      • NBN issues MTM FTTN contracts
  • POLICIES AND REGULATIONS
    • MARKET ANALYSIS - MARKET COMPETITION
    • REGIONAL TELECOMMUNICATIONS REVIEW REPORT
    • TELSTRA - NBN CO DEAL 2.0
      • NBN - this is as good as it gets (Analysis)
    • NBN REGULATORY REFORM DEVELOPMENTS
      • Facilitating smaller ISPs
      • Repositioning of the NBN and NBN Co
      • Changes to be implemented before the end of 2016
      • Changes beyond 2017 and beyond
      • Carrier Licence Conditions (Networks supplying Superfast Carriage Services to Residential Customers) Declaration 2014
      • NBN levy to support remote telecoms
      • ACCC approved NBN's MtM version
      • Migration Procedures
    • ORIGINAL REGULATORY FRAMEWORK
      • Introduction
      • Bills passed House of Reps
      • Key elements of the Companies Bill
      • Key elements of the Access Bill
      • The key points of the NBN amendments
    • TELSTRA STRUCTURAL SEPARATION UNDERTAKING
      • Telstra's initial undertaking
      • Migration Plan
      • Telstra's Structural Separation Undertaking
      • Breaches of structural separation undertakings
      • Universal service reform legislation for the NBN
    • SALE OF NBN CO
    • SPECIAL ACCESS FOR SMART UTILITY SERVICES

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