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Australia - National Broadband Network - Industry and Market Forecasts 2015, 2020

The Australian telecommunications market will change dramatically over the next ten years. Accelerated by government policies these changes will be driven by a total overhaul of the industry.

This will also transform the industry and developments such as cloud computing, M2M and Big Data will be accelerated. The Over-the-Top (OTT) players are also becoming more and more prominent in the telecoms industry and this will start blurring some of the borders between infrastructure, IT and applications,

The NBN will become the predominant infrastructure, and as a utilities-based network it will also provide its services to other sectors, such as healthcare, education and business. With these sectors involved we will see the industry developing specific new business models around infrastructure, ICT and retail. IPTV and other media and entertainment applications will also start to play a more important role. The question remains how successful the telcos will be in retail space.

They will have to decide where they want to play. Infrastructure will largely move to NBN Co, its contractors (eg, Telstra) and a few backhaul providers. Companies also have the opportunity to become the ICT providers to those other sectors. The larger sectors, in particular, will create a sizeable demand for value-added infrastructure services. The first of such contracts signed in the healthcare industry offers glimpses of such a future.

All of this will assist the industry to broaden itself and double its size to around $80 billion by 2020.


1. Synopsis
2. Market Surveys
2.1 NBN Business Readiness Survey - 2013
2.2 Research into the NBN first release sites
2.3 Stats and demographics for the 2012-2015 NBN footprint
3. Industry transformation
4. Fixed infrastructure market
5. Wholesale market
6. The retail market
7. Penetration forecasts
7.1 Roll out penetration
7.2 Broadband access penetration
8. The mobile market
9. The digital economy - trans-sector market
9.1 Forecasts – 2015; 2020
9.2 The digital media market
10. Business market survey
10.1 NBN impact on industry output by 2020
10.2 Summary of survey findings
11. Business models and mergers and acquisitions (M&A)
11.1 Fixed market scenarios
11.2 Mobile market scenarios
12. Forecasting notes
13. Related reports
Table 1 – NBN take up rates first release sites (pre-sales indications)
Table 2 – Broadband uptake* scenario forecasts – 2015; 2020 (household penetration)
Table 3 – Impacts of the NBN on industry output at 2020 (% change)
Chart 1 – Market share size of NBN trans-sector market – 2020
Chart 2 – NBN services revenue share estimates by market share – 2015
Chart 3 – NBN services revenue share estimates by market share – 2020

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