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2006 Australia - Mobile Data & Content - The Battle between HSDPA & WIMAX

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Cellular mobile networks have been built for voice services and even more importantly have been finetuned over the years for efficient and effective voice transmission. While both 2G and 3G allow, in principle, for a large range of mobile data services, these networks can never be optimised for that. Voice will remain the killer application for mobile with some data services included as support services and niche market services. WiMAX and 4G are the real solutions for mobile data but by than it will be called wireless personal broadband. This report analyses the industry. Other topics include:-

Forecasts and Market issues
SMS, Premium SMS, MMS, Mobile TV
M Commerce and Micro payments
Prepaid electronic payment services
CDMA2000 1x, EVDO, I Mode, Blackberry
RFID, Location services, telemetry
Private and Trunked Mobile Radio
Mobile Content

Forecasts and Market Issues
Cellular mobile networks have been built for voice services and even more importantly have been finetuned over the years for efficient and effective voice transmission. While both 2G and 3G allow, in principle, for a large range of mobile data services, these networks can never be optimised for that. Voice will remain the killer application for mobile with some data services included as support services and niche market services. WiMAX and 4G are the real solutions for mobile data but by than it will be called wireless personal broadband. This report analyses the industry.

HSDPA, GPRS, WAP, EDGE, CDMA 2000 1X, EVDO, i-mode and BlackBerry
The industry is awash with a multitude of acronyms and fancy names for somewhat inexplicable technologies and services. The range of services promoted as mid--way between conventional 2G mobile services offering plain voice and SMS, and the 3G multimedia + voice applications is known as the 2.5G range of wireless data services. The report looks at some of these 2.5G services, including GPRS, PTT, USSD and EDGE. The latest addition is HSDPA to the 3G networks.

Like the GSM technology, CDMA has also delivered a range of mobile data technologies, namely 1X and EVDO. However, with the withdrawal of CDMA from the Australian market these services are no longer relevant to the market. They will be replaced by HSDPA. The report also covers the failure of i-mode. BlackBerry, one of the most successful business mobile data applications, is also discussed.

The SMS, MMS and Mobile TV Market
The SMS technology, based on GSM, is examined, from its faltering beginnings to its present relevance to mobile data. Key issues in relation to market trends, marketing, technology developments and regulatory and policy matters are all discussed. Premium SMS is also covered.

SMS remains a major growth area for mobile operators. However, revenue growth is only a fraction of the growth in messages. Australians did send well over 8 billion SMS messages in FY 2005/06, an average of at least 300 messages for each subscriber. By the end of the decade over 10 billion messages will be sent. The importance of SMS to mobile phone service operators is also increasing, with SMS now accounting for an average of between 10% and 15% of revenue for mobile operators.

As an extension of the immensely popular SMS service, MMS was aimed at providing longer text messages, in addition to music and pictures, it also allows for the sending of messages to multiple recipients. Launched in 2001, it has failed to take off. Elements of MMS have been introduced in other technologies similar to where WAP ended up. The current technology - and more importantly its business models - don’t yet stack up. The same applies to the mobile TV technology, perhaps a great engineering feat, but where is the business model!

M-Commerce, Micro payments
Mobile communications remains best suited for voice services. The data element will predominantly be to support the main voice function. Nonetheless, many vested interests depend on the success of mobile data services, including the much-vaunted mobile commerce services, or m-commerce. While there are good applications, the current technologies and business models are not well suited for mass market applications. SMS-based systems are now also used for micropayments on the Internet. The billing features that mobile operators have are among their strongest assets and will see them extending these facilities off-net to include Internet billing.

Mobile Content
There is no doubt that mobile data applications have caught the attention of the media. However, after nearly ten years, less than 5% of mobile users have ventured beyond SMS. The business models used by operators, in which content providers have to pay up to 50% of their revenue, are totally flawed. I also argue that the reason for this is the fact that current 2G and 3G technologies can’t handle massive mobile content usage over their networks. True IP-based wireless broadband might finally deliver on the mobile data promise.

Business models for content providers remain shaky with operators still charging a hefty 30-50% of revenues. A few initiatives saw some marginally changes occurring in 2005 which continued in 2006. The music industry negotiated better deals and on Telstra’s i-mode service, content providers do receive better margins. However 95% of usage takes place on GSM services. Ringtones and wallpaper still dominate the market followed by music and games. A breakthrough in mobile content is not expected until later this decade.

Wireless Mobility Market
Up till now the mobile market has mainly revolved around mobile calls and SMS. However this market is reaching the end of its life. On the other side we see the emergence of wireless broadband, the mobile aspects of this market are going show us the way forward where mobile data failed. This is the new market of “Mobility”. This will further develop in an AI (artificial intelligence) network infrastructure, linked to personal devices, with high storage capacity and parallel processing. Data will move freely around this wireless grid, which of course, will also be linked into the fixed network. Both WiMAX and 4G are vying for this market.

Telemetry, Location Services, RFID
Telemetry applications are expected to boom as ‘intelligent’ digital devices, which chatter away almost incessantly, exchange all kinds of information automatically and transparently to the people around them. Data traffic between people and machines means that the global telecommunications network will soon resemble a worldwide computer network, rather than the voice-only mechanism for person-to-person communication it represented to its founders. The report looks at the market’s potential, and some developments in the USA and Australia on location-based services, and introduces the Bluetooth technology. By 2006 market expectations for RFID remained buoyant, but mass deployment is still some years away.

Private Mobile Radio and Trunked Mobile Radio
The major market for two-way systems in Australia is in the traditional emergency services and public services markets - police, fire brigades, ambulance services, railways, utility companies, councils. Private applications can be found in the mining industry, oil and gas exploration and on rural properties in the outback. The Australian market shares are still standing at 80% for traditional Private Mobile Radio (PMR) and 20% for Trunked Mobile Radio (TMR), with a trend away from the traditional vehicle handsets to hand-held mobiles. The market is very much a replacement market, with about 1,000-1,500 terminals sold per annum.

1.1 The market in 2006
1.1.1 A decade on and mobile data failed to deliver
1.1.2 Will HSDPA deliver?
1.1.3 Will WiMAX deliver?
1.1.4 Vindicated, 4G is arriving earlier
1.1.5 Competition needed to change the mobile model
1.1.6 Not being seen to be bored
1.1.7 Smart wireless devices
1.2 From WiMAX and 3G to 4G Mobile
1.2.1 Service Evolution
1.2.2 How to move forward?
1.3 Mobile TV
1.3.1 Mobile TV, are you serious
1.3.2 Mobile TV and WiMAX could be a good match
1.4 Mobile content - a market still kept hostage
1.5 BlackBerry developments
1.6 Mobile data market potential
1.7 Market forecasts
1.7.1 Unique business opportunities
1.7.2 Mobile data revenues
1.7.3 Ericsson Consumer Lab Survey
2.1.1 Introduction
2.1.2 Telstra’s new regional network (city-to-country)
2.1.3 Telstra and Hutchison metro network
2.1.4 Vodafone
2.1.5 3G Wireless Landline Series
2.2 GPRS
2.2.1 Overview
2.2.2 Very slow start
2.2.3 Telstra first to launch commercial service
2.2.4 Telstra niche market approach to GPRS
2.2.5 Vodafone Live!
2.2.6 WiFi/GPRS/3G combination
2.2.7 Push-to-Talk (PTT)
2.2.8 Unstructured Supplementary Service Data (USSD)
2.2.9 ZOO Mobile TV from Optus
2.3 WAP
2.3.1 Overview
2.3.2 Services, costs and user statistics
2.3.3 WAP over GPRS
2.4 EDGE
2.4.1 Beefed up GPRS
2.4.2 Full coverage in 2006
2.4.3 IP mobile
2.5 CDMA 2000 1x
2.5.1 Introduction
2.5.2 1X RTT
2.6 EVDO
2.6.1 Telstra CDMA mobile data services
2.6.2 Telstra CDMA wireless broadband services
2.6.3 Telstra questions EVDO in Hong Kong
2.6.5 New Zealand EVDO roaming in Australia
2.7 i-mode
2.7.1 Another mobile data failure
2.7.2 Telstra isn’t cracking the mobile data market with i-mode
2.7.3 Two i-mode versions
2.8 BlackBerry
2.8.1 Business tool
2.8.2 Developments in 2006
2.8.3 Global developments based on GPRS
2.8.4 High costs
2.8.5 Telstra’s service
2.8.6 Optus services
2.8.7 Future away from BlackBerry
3.1 Overview, trends and developments
3.1.1 Introduction
3.1.2 Market trends
3.1.3 SMS numbering
3.1.4 Premium Rate SMS
3.1.5 Business SMS
3.1.6 Skype SMS
3.2 Statistics and forecasts
3.2.1 Statistical overviews
3.2.2 BuddeComm market forecasts
3.3 Premium rate SMS
3.3.1 Key players
3.3.2 Premium SMS revenues
3.3.3 Market analysis
3.3.4 Premium Rate services
3.3.5 Mobile Content
4.1 Market overview
4.1.1 Introduction
4.1.2 The market in 2005 and 2006
4.1.3 Multimedia phones
4.1.4 Original developments
4.1.5 Wrong predictions (again)
4.2 Don’t write MMS off yet
4.3 Mobile TV
4.3.1 Introduction
4.3.2 Slow uptake in Australia
4.3.3 Mobile Broadcast Multicast Services (MBMS)
4.3.4 Key market 13-19 year olds
4.3.5 First DVB-H trial launched in Sydney
4.3.6 Telstra pulls out of movemedia trial
4.4 Analysis of video-based mobile developments
4.4.1 Mobile TV - are you serious?
4.5 Mobile TV and WiMAX could be a good match
4.6 The mobile TV fallacy
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Micropayment by mobile phone
5.2.1 Commercialisation of the Internet
5.2.2 Consumer resistance towards credit cards
5.2.3 Banks will have to come to the party
5.2.4 URL billing (off-net billing)
5.2.5 sms person-to-person payment service
5.2.6 Industry (self) regulation
5.3 The e-tag payment infrastructure
5.3.1 Forget about mobile payment - Long live the e-tag
5.3.2 The Transurban and Telstra alliance
5.4 M-commerce market forecasts
5.4.1 Business applications with PDAs
5.4.2 Residential applications based on permission-based marketing
5.4.3 Wireless broadband
5.5 SMS driven m-commerce
5.6 The m-commerce hype of 2000/2001
5.6.1 Historic overview
6.1 Industry overview
6.1.1 The mobile content market moving into 2007
6.1.2 A market still kept hostage - analysis
6.1.3 New marketing and distribution models
6.1.4 Mobile TV
6.2 Forecasts
6.2.1 Revenue forecast
6.2.2 Operators - developments
6.2.3 Service providers
6.3 Services overview and statistics
6.3.1 Ringtones and wallpaper
6.3.2 Mobile gaming
6.3.3 Mobile email
6.3.4 Gambling
6.3.5 Voting
6.3.6 MP3/iPods
6.3.7 music
6.3.8 Ninemsn
6.3.9 Seven back into mobile
6.3.10 AdultShop
6.4 Regulatory framework
6.4.1 SMS numbering
6.4.2 Adult content
6.4.3 SMS spam
7.1 Mobile market
7.2 Mobility applications
7.3 Vindicated: 4G is arriving earlier
7.4 Scenario forecasting revenues mobile and wireless industries
7.4.1 Battle with the fixed operators
7.4.2 Valued between $10 and $15 billion
7.4.3 Battles between mobile and wireless
7.4.4 Revenue forecasts
7.5 Mobility devices
7.5.1 The communications market of tomorrow
7.5.2 Moore’s Law: storage, access, processing
7.5.3 Bringing the future back home
8.1 The Internet of Things
8.2 Machine-to-machine transmission
8.3 Telemetry
8.4 Radio Frequency Identification (RFID)
8.4.1 RFID - a business revolution
8.4.2 Technology still in its early days
8.4.3 Developments in Australia
8.4.4 RFID experimental licences
8.4.5 Industry association
8.5 Telemetry statistics (traditional market)
8.5.1 Utilities telemetering
8.5.2 Mobile-based telemetry
8.6 Location-based services
8.6.1 Mobile origin location indicator and emergency
8.6.2 Developments in the USA
8.6.3 Developments in Australia
8.6.4 ACA’s discussion paper
8.6.5 Seeker Wireless Pty Ltd
8.6.6 Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS)
8.6.7 Cell broadcasting trial from Seven Network - 1998
8.6.8 Vodafone’s ‘My Vodafone’ service
8.6.9 Location and navigation from Sensis
8.6.10 Mobile Location Manager from Telstra
8.6.11 Optus Zoo FindA
8.7 Car navigation
9.1 Zeon Digital Network
9.2 The market in 2006
9.3 Market statistics
9.4 The slow road from PMR to TMR
9.4.1 Introduction
9.4.2 Trunked Mobile Radio (TMR)
9.4.3 Public Mobile Radio (PMR)
9.4.4 Spectrum licensing
9.4.5 Mobility for emergency and safety applications
9.5 The key standards
9.5.1 APCO-25
9.5.2 Terrestrial Trunked Radio (TETRA)
9.6 Major Service Providers
9.6.1 Fleetcoms
9.7 Emergency services organisations networks
9.7.1 New South Wales
9.7.2 South Australia
9.7.3 Western Australia
9.7.4 Queensland
9.7.5 Tasmania
9.7.6 Victoria
Exhibit 1 - Top six mobile residential data applications
Exhibit 2 - Summary of services available on mobile access technologies - 2005
Exhibit 3 - GPRS advantages (the theory)
Exhibit 4 - Summary of services available on mobile access technologies
Exhibit 5 - Revenue mix PSMS
Exhibit 6 - Comparison of mobile messaging technologies
Exhibit 7 - Comparison of SMS, EMS and MMS by Ovum
Exhibit 8 - Comparison of SMS and MMS by Mobile Streams
Exhibit 9 - Mobile TV minutes
Exhibit 10 - Mobile facts and figures
Exhibit 11 - What users want
Exhibit 12 - BlueSkyFrog clients and partners
Exhibit 13 - BlueSkyFrog services
Exhibit 14 - Key m-gambling market segments
Exhibit 15 - Key issues for Mobility Industry
Exhibit 16 - Service evolution vision
Exhibit 17 - Three Services, One Network, One radio device
Exhibit 18 - Two-way radio market - 1990 - 2005
Exhibit 19 - Two-way radio systems
Exhibit 20 - NSW GRN
Exhibit 21 - The South Australian GRN

Table 1 - Corporate interest in mobile initiatives
Table 2 - Mobile data revenues major players - 2005
Table 3 - HSDPA Operators plans Australia
Table 4 - Growth in SMS services - 2000 - 2005
Table 5 - Growth in Telstra SMS messages - 2001 - 2005
Table 6 - SMS market share by operator - 2005
Table 7 - Revenues major players and share - 2004 - 2005
Table 8 - SMS growth forecasts - 2003 - 2010
Table 9 - Revenues PSMS market - 2004 - 2007
Table 10 - Australian content market revenue - 2005 - 2007
Table 11 - Mobile content ARPU per customer - 2006
Table 12 - Mobile data, Mobile voice and Wireless revenues - 2005; 2010; 2015
Table 13 - Telemetry devices - 1998; 2000; 2004
Table 14 - Telemetry market - vertical market share forecast

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