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Australia - Broadband Market - Overview, Statistics and Forecasts

Post-election migration to the NBN secured

BuddeComm’s annual publication, Australia - Broadband Market - Overview, Statistics and Forecasts, provides a comprehensive overview of the trends and developments in Australia’s fast moving broadband market. It includes surveys by government departments such as the Australian Bureau of Statistics, as also the regulator’s market data reports, operator data to Q1 2013 and market developments to mid-2013.

The report assesses key sectors in the market and provides an analysis of market dynamics, including statistics on infrastructure and data on the major ISPs and key providers. The report analyses both the retail and wholesale broadband service providers and examines key developments in HFC networks as well as emerging DSL technologies such as vectoring VDSL. Statistical tables and charts provide historical data as well as forecasts relating to fixed and mobile broadband usage, the operational performance of ISPs, and a break-down of business broadband market.

Fixed broadband market edging to the high-speed NBN

Australia’s National Broadband Network (NBN) has received widespread support from subscribers. Its implementation to the end of the decade has been secured regardless of political power-play given the Coalition’s acceptance of the infrastructure as a national asset. The progress of the NBN has been slowed by a range of commercial and operational difficulties, but NBN Co is pressing ahead as fast as is practicable, with greater uptake among subscribers as the work proceeds. These developments are bringing faster broadband to Australians, with profound consequences for the country’s economic and social framework. More detailed developments regarding the NBN are discussed in a separate report Australia - The National Broadband Network.

In this report BuddeComm analyses the fixed and mobile broadband market by separate sectors, including the business and residential sectors, the wholesale and retail sectors, and the ADSL and HFC markets. In mid-2013 the ACCC set out the terms and conditions for wholesale DSL services, setting out a pricing structure through a Final Access Determination (FAD) effective to June 2014. Wholesale prices will fall by around 15%, with lower pricing making it easier for ISPs to compete effectively in areas where it has been uneconomic to deploy their own DSL networks.

In the DSL sector there are emerging developments with DSL vectoring which could be utilised in some areas as the copper network transitions to the NBN. Yet vectoring is incompatible with some current regulatory measures and capacity remains related to distance from exchanges. Though the technology has been adopted by a small number of European ISPs it remains a cheaper stop-gap measure to provide faster broadband while fibre networks are being deployed for long term solutions.

Among Internet Service Providers (ISPs) there continues to be some consolidation with takeovers leading to a lower number of players. Further consolidation is expected into 2013/14.

In the business sector we have seen universal adoption of broadband and a growing awareness among companies for services such as video media and cloud computing. Businesses are among the keenest to switch to the NBK where it has become available.

The report’s assessment of the residential broadband market includes analyses of the key drivers behind internet adoption among Australian households, backed by data from market surveys and official statistics covering consumer usage and behavioural patterns.

HFC networks are dominated by the two major operators in Australia, Telstra and Optus. Parts of these networks have been recently upgraded to DOCSIS 3.0, in many instances providing faster broadband capability than competing DSL. Possibilities with DOCSIS 3.1 should improve download speeds further, though with broadband subscribers being migrated to the NBN these new advantages will be geared towards the cable TV sector.

Market highlights:

Household internet penetration is among the highest in the region, at more than 80%;
Broadband access revenue continues to grow, expected to reach some $3.7 billion for 2013;
Cloud-based usage by business increasing as backups and shared data come from faster connections;
Data usage is growing rapidly, particularly in the mobile broadband sector as consumers make greater use of broadband-enabled devices;
Average connection speeds remain low by international standards, with less than 4% of connections having a capacity above 10Mb/s, compared to 49% in South Korea;
The cable broadband subscriber base is expected to grow only 1% in 2013. Despite the advantages of higher data rates than in possible in many areas from DSL;
Developments in DOCSIS3.1 technology will help preserve the longevity and capability of HFC networks for cable TV.

Key telecom parameters – 2010; 2013
Sector | 2010 | 2013 (e)
Fixed broadband subscribers (million) | 9.27 | 12.50
Wireless broadband subscribers (million) | 3.47 | 6.04
Data traffic (PB) | 191 | 650
(Source: BuddeComm)

This report is essential reading for those needing high level strategic information and objective analysis on the telecom sector in Australia.

It provides further information on:

Technological and regulatory issues;
The impact of the migration to the NBN;
Telecoms operators – M&A activity, market developments;
Mobile broadband market developments in light of spectrum auctions and WiMAX/LTE deployments;
Revenue forecasts;

Historical and current subscriber statistics and forecasts.Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year.


  • EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
  • FIXED BROADBAND - STATISTICAL OVERVIEW
    • OVERALL SIZE OF THE MARKET
      • Total broadband subscribers
        • Table Historical - Total broadband subscribers and annual change - 2000 - 2004
        • Table Total broadband subscribers and annual change - 2005 - 2014
      • Subscribers by major providers/technology
        • Table Broadband subscribers - total market by technology - 2008 - 2012
      • Market shares
        • Table Broadband market - overall market share by technology - 2003 - 2013
    • ACCESS REVENUES
      • Statistical overview
        • Table Broadband access revenues by major provider - 2005 - 2013
        • Table Annual change in broadband access revenues by major provider - 2006 - 2013
        • Table Market share of broadband access revenues by major provider - 2005 - 2013
      • Average Revenue per User (ARPU)
        • Table Estimated fixed broadband ARPUs - 2006 - 2013
    • OTHER SURVEYS AND STATISTICS
      • Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Survey - update 2012
      • Statistical information by technology
        • Table Internet subscribers by access technology - 2008 - 2012
        • Table Broadband market share by technology and annual change - 2008 - 2012
        • Table Business, government and household internet subscribers - 2007 - 2012
      • Broadband speeds
        • Table Subscribers' average speed in Australia versus selected countries - 2010 - 2012
        • Table Internet subscribers by download speed - 2009 - 2012
        • Table Business, government and household internet subscribers by download speed - 2009 - 2012
        • Table Internet subscribers by download speed - 2008 - 2012
      • Broadband traffic
        • Table Terabytes of data downloaded by access technology (historic) - 2008 - 2009
        • Table Annual change in data downloaded by access technology - 2011 - 2012
        • Table Terabytes of data downloaded by sector (historic) - 2008 - 2009
      • Unmet broadband demand in Victoria
    • ISP MARKET OVERVIEW
      • The market in 2013
      • Data limiting
      • ISP market statistics
        • Table Number of ISPs by size in the Australian market - 2008 - 2012
        • Table Number of ISPs - 2001 - 2013
      • ISPs contracting but some sectors may expand
      • Digital Media - Triple play business models
      • Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) added to naked DSL
    • BENCHMARKING WITH OTHER COUNTRIES
      • Fixed broadband
        • Table Fixed broadband access among internet households - selected countries - 2008 - 2013
      • Wireless broadband
        • Table Top ten OECD countries by wireless broadband subscriptions - Jun 2012
  • DSL MARKET, OVERVIEW, STATISTICS AND PROVIDERS
    • BRIEF OVERVIEW OF THE NBN
      • Fibre to match DSL in 2015
    • REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT - ANALYSIS
      • Background
      • The impact of fibre optic networks on digital subscriber line (DSL) regulation
      • Unbundling of the local loop (ULL) and line sharing
      • Wholesale DSL pricing
        • Table Wholesale DSL pricing, per month per user - 2008 - 2012
    • DSL INFRASTRUCTURE
      • Overview
        • Table Number of infrastructure providers by number of ADSL-enabled exchanges - 2007 - 2008; 2010 - 2011
        • Table Number of ADSL broadband subscribers -2 008 - 2012
      • Tool for competitors
      • DSLAM infrastructure
        • Table Number of DSLAMs by major providers - 2009 - 2012
        • Table Total number of DSLAMs - 2006 - 2012
        • Table Number of ADSL and ADSL2+-enabled exchanges - 2013
      • Street cabinet IP DSLAM2 upgrades (Top Hat)
        • Table Top Hat enabled exchanges - 2011 - 2013
      • VDSL developments
      • VDSL vectoring
    • BRIEF OVERVIEW OF BROADBAND PROVIDERS MARKET
      • Market consolidation
      • The shrinking of ISPs
      • ISP customer satisfaction
        • Table ISP customer satisfaction ratings of selected ISPs - 2010 - 2011
      • Market share statistics
        • Table Broadband DSL retail subscribers by major provider - 2008 - 2012
        • Table Total business and residential broadband subscribers - 2006 - 2013
        • Table Telstra broadband subscribers by sector - 2007 - 2012
  • HFC CABLE NETWORKS - OVERVIEW AND STATISTICS
    • TECHNOLOGY
      • Hybrid fibre coax (HFC)
      • The DOCSIS standard
      • The next development for DOCSIS
    • MARKET STATISTICS AND ESTIMATES
      • Table Cable broadband subscribers by major operator and annual change - 2002 - 2013
      • Table Cable subscribers versus other broadband technologies - 2009 - 2012
    • AUSTAR UNITED COMMUNICATIONS LTD (AUSTAR)
      • Overview
    • BES/E-WIRE
      • Overview
    • TRANSACT
      • Overview
    • TELSTRA
      • Background information
      • DOCSIS 3.0 upgraded
    • OPTUS
      • Overview
        • Table Optus financial data - 2012 - 2013
        • Table Optus financial data by sector - 2012 - 2013
        • Table Optus on-net broadband subscribers - 2012 - 2013
      • Network DOCSIS 3.0 upgraded
    • INDUSTRY ANALYSIS
      • Do we need infrastructure-based competition?
      • Moving on from the HFC of the past
      • No long-term future in HFC cable broadband
      • HFC to be decommissioned as NBN rolls out
      • From HFC to fibre-to-the-home (FttH)
  • MOBILE BROADBAND - STATISTICAL OVERVIEW AND FORECASTS
    • MARKET OVERVIEW AND ANALYSIS
      • The market in 2013
      • Uptake in 4G adds to mobile broadband users
      • Vodafone launches LTE
      • Mobile data and messaging exceeds voice revenues
      • Globalgig hotspot local and international data roaming
      • Capital expenditure builds into the future
      • Overview of 4G frequency usage
      • Spectrum reallocations
      • Hardware drives applications
      • Mobile broadband to drive structural change
      • Mobile broadband slowly substitutes fixed services.
    • MOBILE BROADBAND MARKET STATISTICS
      • Mobile broadband subscribers
        • Table Wireless broadband subscribers by access type and annual change - 2007 - 2013
        • Table Mobile broadband subscribers by mobile network operator - 2007 - 2013
        • Table Mobile broadband subscriber growth - 2008 - 2013
        • Table Estimated mobile broadband data downloaded in Petabytes - 2007 - 2013; 2015
      • Mobile broadband revenues
        • Table Estimated mobile broadband revenues and annual change - 2007 - 2013
        • Table Mobile broadband monthly ARPU - 2007 - 2013
      • Fixed wireless broadband market
        • Table Fixed wireless broadband subscribers by major operator - 2008 - 2013
        • Table WiFi hotspots at the peak in the late 2000s
    • FORECASTS AND OTHER DEVELOPMENTS
      • Watch out for the next WiFi wave
      • Mobile broadband boom the killer app FttH
      • 4G fixed-Wireless NBN for regional Australia
      • Fixed/mobile call market
      • Revenue forecasts
        • Table Forecast mobile broadband and voice revenues - 2008; 2013; 2018
      • Overview of mobile broadband worldwide
        • Table Worldwide mobile broadband subscriptions - 2010 - 2013
        • Table OECD mobile broadband subscriptions - 2011- 2012
        • Table Top ten OECD countries by wireless broadband subscriptions - 2011 - 2012
    • AUSTRALIA - MOBILE MEDIA - PREMIUM RATE SMS (PSMS) PORTALS AND APPS
  • BUSINESS MARKET STATISTICS
    • MARKET TRENDS
      • Business market overview
      • ISPs targeting business
      • Broadbanded companies moving forward
      • The NBN and the business market
      • Business need faster speeds to communicate
        • Table Business uptake of broadband by access type - 2010 - 2012
    • BUSINESS MARKET SURVEYS
      • NBN Business Readiness Survey - 2013
      • Remote access and operation needed
      • Small Business Telecommunications Service Use and Experience
      • Survey reveals moving online benefits businesses - 2013
        • Table SME online trends - websites versus social media - 2010 - 2012
      • Telstra Productivity Indicator 2012
      • Sensis - 2012 e-business report
        • Table SME computer equipment ownership trends - 1999 - 2012
        • Table Computer software and hardware expenditure - SMEs versus medium businesses - 2001 - 2012
        • Table Business trends in internet connections - 1998 - 2012
        • Table SMEs internet access methods, by technology - 2010 - 2012
        • Table Top 10 current uses of the internet by SMEs - 2010 - 2012
      • Optus Future of Business Report
        • Table Meeting customer expectations using internet applications - 2011 - 2012; 2015
        • Table Expectations of customer e-payments - 2011 - 2012; 2015
    • BUSINESS CUSTOMER EXPENDITURE ON TELECOMS
      • Overall telecom spend - business market
        • Table Estimated telco product mix of business customer spend - 2013
        • Table Estimated business and government market spending - 2013
        • Table Providers' market share and revenue - 2013
      • SME market statistics
        • Table Revenue mix - total spend of telecoms - SME market - 2013
  • RESIDENTIAL MARKET STATISTICS
    • STATISTICAL OVERVIEW RESIDENTIAL MARKET - TOTAL TELECOMS
      • Table Revenue mix - total spend of telecoms - residential market - 2013
      • Table Service providers' market share and revenue in the residential market - 2013
    • INTERNET HOUSEHOLD STATISTICS
      • Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) surveys and internet connectivity
        • Table Total households versus internet enabled households - 1999 - 2012
        • Table Broadband component of internet enabled households - 2005 - 2012; 2015
        • Table Internet access households with children - 2005 - 2009; 2010 - 2011
      • Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) surveys
        • Table Internet usage by age group - 2010
    • TRENDS IN THE RESIDENTIAL MARKET
      • Problems with broadband technology
      • Data increases in volume
        • Table Data usage by users - 2008 - 2012
      • Mobile broadband - no alternative to fixed line services.
      • Dial-up internet not hanging up, just yet
        • Table Dial-up and non-dial-up internet subscribers - 2003 - 2012
    • HOUSEHOLD USE OF TECHNOLOGY
      • Computer technologies
        • Table Computerisation in the home - 2012
      • Broadband technologies
      • Internet social media activities
        • Table Top 5 social networking age groups - 2011 - 2012
    • OTHER RESIDENTIAL MARKET SURVEYS
      • Stats on children and technology
      • Internet hours - usage increasing in 2012
        • Table Weekly internet usage by age group - 2012
      • New generations survey
      • Customer service issues and the Telecommunications Industry Ombudsman (TIO)
        • Table Total new complaints to the TIO - 2006 - 2012
        • Table Number of complaints to the TIO - by levels - 2009 - 2012
  • THE NATIONAL BROADBAND NETWORK
    • INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW
      • General overview of the plan
      • How Australia got its NBN
      • National interest utility
      • NBN national infrastructure, not just telecomms
      • Economic reforms
        • Table Economic benefits of broadband - overview of surveys
      • Where is the user in all of this?
      • Why wireless broadband is no alternative to FttH
    • SURVEYS, STATISTICS AND FORECASTS
      • Market Surveys
      • Industry transformation
      • Penetration Updates and forecasts
        • Table NBN take up rates first release sites (pre-sales indications)
        • Table Broadband uptake* scenario forecasts - 2015; 2020 (household penetration)
      • The mobile market
      • The digital economy - trans-sector market
      • Business market survey
        • Table Impacts of the NBN on industry output at 2020 (% change)
      • Business models and mergers and acquisitions (M&A)

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