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2008 Asian - Forecasts

This market report provides a series of forecasts for subscriber growth in selected markets in Asia. It predominantly covers the fixed-line, Internet and mobile subscriber market segments in 15 countries across Asia. It is noted that our report has focused on developing economies in the region where the main segments of the markets are still very much in their basic subscriber growth phases. The forecasts cover a range of periods with some commencing in 2006 and most forecasting ending in 2017.


This market report provides a series of forecasts for subscriber growth in selected markets in Asia. It predominantly covers the fixed-line, Internet and mobile subscriber market segments in 15 countries across Asia. It is noted that our report has focused on developing economies in the region where the main segments of the markets are still very much in their basic subscriber growth phases. The forecasts cover a range of periods with some commencing in 2006 and most forecasting ending in 2017.

The countries covered include:

Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Georgia, Indonesia, India, Kazakhstan, Laos, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Uzbekistan, Vietnam.

The report includes what BuddeComm terms scenario forecasts. By describing long-range scenarios we identify a band within which we expect subscriber growth to occur. The associated text describes what we see as the most likely growth trend within the identified band. The actual forecasts are summarised in a series of tables. A set of sample tables are included below, these being the actual scenario forecasts for India to 2017. The projections shown in the tables in this report are based on our own historical information, as well as on telecommunication sector statistics from official and non-official, national and international sources. We assume a possible deviation of 15-20% around this data. All statistics for GDP, revenue, etc, are shown in US$, in order to maintain consistency within and between markets. At the same time we acknowledge that this can introduce some irregularities.

India - Forecast fixed-line growth and penetration - lower forecast - 2007; 2012; 2017 Year Subscribers (million) Penetration
2007 40 4%
2012 60 6%
2017 85 8%
(Source: BuddeComm forecasts)

India - Forecast fixed-line growth and penetration - higher forecast - 2007; 2012; 2017

Year Subscribers (million) Penetration
2007 40 4%
2012 80 8%
2017 130 12%
(Source: BuddeComm forecasts)

India - Forecast Internet subscriber growth & penetration - lower forecast - 2007; 2012; 2017

Year Subscribers (million) Penetration
(subscribers/1000 population)
2007 9 8
2012 26 22
2017 60 50
(Source: BuddeComm forecasts)

India - Forecast Internet subscriber growth & penetration - higher forecast - 2007; 2012; 2017

Year Subscribers (million) Penetration
(subscribers/1000 population)
2007 9 8
2012 50 42
2017 110 91
(Source: BuddeComm forecasts)

India - Forecast mobile growth and penetration - lower forecast - 2007; 2012; 2017

Year Subscribers (million) Penetration
2007 220 19%
2012 320 26%
2017 420 33%
(Source: BuddeComm forecasts)

India - Forecast mobile growth and penetration - higher forecast - 2007; 2012; 2017

Year Subscribers (million) Penetration
2007 220 19%
2012 470 38%
2017 650 52%
(Source: BuddeComm forecasts)

Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year.

1. Afghanistan
1.1 Forecast overview
1.2 Forecasts - fixed-line market to 2016
1.3 Forecasts - Internet services to 2016
1.4 Forecasts - mobile market to 2016
2. Azerbaijan
2.1 Forecast overview
2.2 Forecasts - fixed-line market to 2017
2.3 Forecasts - Internet services to 2017
2.4 Forecasts - mobile market to 2017
3. Bangladesh
3.1 Forecasts - fixed-line market to 2016
3.2 Forecasts - Internet services to 2016
3.3 Forecasts - mobile market to 2016
4. Cambodia
4.1 Forecast overview
4.2 Forecasts - fixed-line market to 2016
4.3 Forecasts - Internet services to 2016
4.4 Forecasts - mobile market to 2016
5. Georgia
5.1 Forecast overview
5.2 Forecasts - fixed-line market to 2017
5.3 Forecasts - Internet services to 2017
5.4 Forecasts - mobile market to 2017
6. Indonesia
6.1 Forecast overview
6.2 Forecasts - fixed-line market to 2017
6.3 Forecasts - Internet services to 2017
6.4 Forecasts - mobile market to 2017
7. India
7.1 Forecast overview
7.2 Forecasts - fixed-line market to 2017
7.3 Forecasts - Internet services to 2017
7.4 Forecasts - mobile market to 2017
8. Kazakhstan
8.1 Forecast overview
8.2 Forecasts - fixed-line market to 2017
8.3 Forecasts - Internet services to 2017
8.4 Forecasts - mobile market to 2017
9. Laos
9.1 Forecast overview
9.2 Forecasts - fixed-line market to 2016
9.3 Forecasts - Internet services to 2016
9.4 Forecasts - mobile market to 2016
10. Nepal
10.1 Forecast overview
10.2 Forecasts - fixed-line market to 2017
10.3 Forecasts - Internet services to 2017
10.4 Forecasts - mobile market to 2017
11. Pakistan
11.1 Forecast overview
11.2 Forecasts - fixed-line market to 2017
11.3 Forecasts - Internet services to 2017
11.4 Forecasts - mobile market to 2017
12. Sri Lanka
12.1 Forecasts - fixed-line market to 2016
12.2 Forecasts - Internet services to 2016
12.3 Forecasts - mobile market to 2016
13. Thailand
13.1 Forecast overview
13.2 Forecasts - fixed-line services to 2017
13.3 Forecasts - Internet services to 2017
13.4 Forecasts - mobile market to 2017
14. Uzbekistan
14.1 Forecast overview
14.2 Forecasts - fixed-line market to 2017
14.3 Forecasts - Internet services to 2017
14.4 Forecasts - mobile market to 2017
15. Vietnam
15.1 Forecast overview
15.2 Forecasts - fixed-line market to 2017
15.3 Forecasts - Internet services to 2017
15.4 Forecasts - mobile market to 2017
16. Glossary of Abbreviations

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