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Asia - Telecom Forecasts

Asia - Telecom Forecasts

Fixed broadband will see strong growth in some developing Asian markets

The telecom market across Asia has an estimated total of 4.15 billion mobile subscribers by 2017. This sector of the overall market continues to experience moderate growth; however, in the more developed markets, growth is shifting away from a focus on subscriber numbers towards the expansion of new generation platforms and increased data usage driven by value-added services and increased ARPUs.

Looking over the next five years, countries with high mobile penetration rates such as Macau, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, Maldives and Kazakhstan are expected to see the slowest growth over the next five years to 2021 due to the relatively high state of maturity in their markets.

There are in fact few countries left in Asia with significantly underdeveloped mobile markets and low mobile penetration rates. Further to this, some Asian countries with relatively underdeveloped telecoms markets, have mobile penetration rates which are often quite high. Compared to more advanced nations such as Japan, Sri Lanka for example has a mobile penetration rate of 127% but a fixed broadband penetration of only 4%. Many of these countries have seen their telecoms markets develop by leapfrogging past fixed broadband, directly to mobile networks which are relatively less expensive to roll out. Countries in this category with very low fixed broadband penetration such Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Cambodia will see relatively high growth rates of fixed broadband, however because fixed broadband subscriber growth is coming from such a small base, the overall increase in penetration rates with be only modest. In these markets, mobile networks are now relatively established and will be the main driver of growth over the next five years.

Only a handful of Asian countries have mobile penetration rates under 90%, these include: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Laos, Myanmar, Pakistan and Uzbekistan. These countries are generally expected to see moderate mobile subscriber growth over the next five years, as they strive to catch up with the rest of Asia.

The expansion of broadband was for a long time a phenomenon limited to the developed economies, with narrowband dial-up access being the norm in the majority of the poorer developing countries of the region. However this has been gradually changing. In those economies, there is now increasing access to broadband, both DSL and cable modem platforms have both proved popular, with DSL establishing a clear advantage. More recently, we have seen the arrival of FttX as an alternative platform for broadband access in Asia. There also continues to be considerable activity in the broadband markets across Asia including amongst the many number of smaller countries such as Azerbaijan, Maldives and Macau.

Fixed broadband penetration is expected to only increase modestly in these markets over the next few years to 2021, while the growth will come from the less developed markets such as India. However penetration rates are never expected to reach the high levels seen in the mobile markets as these developing nations have typically bypassed fixed line access and moved directly to mobile access.


  • MARKET ANALYSIS AND TRENDS
    • Table Top fifteen countries in Asia by mobile penetration (penetration %) - 2016
  • AFGHANISTAN
    • FORECASTS - INTERNET SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Afghanistan - Forecast - fixed internet subscribers - 2016; 2018; 2021
    • FORECASTS - MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Afghanistan - Forecast mobile subscribers - 2016; 2018; 2021
    • FORECASTS - MOBILE BROADBAND SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Afghanistan - Forecast - mobile broadband subscribers - 2016; 2018; 2021
  • AZERBAIJAN
    • FORECASTS - FIXED BROADBAND SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Azerbaijan - Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration - 2016; 2018; 2021
    • FORECASTS -MOBILE MARKET - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Azerbaijan - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration - 2016; 2018; 2021
  • BANGLADESH
    • FORECASTS - BROADBAND SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Bangladesh - Forecast Fixed Broadband subscribers - 2016; 2018; 2021
    • FORECASTS - MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Bangladesh - Forecast mobile subscriber growth - 2016; 2018; 2021
  • BHUTAN
    • FORECASTS - BROADBAND SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Bhutan - Forecast Broadband subscribers - 2016; 2018; 2021
    • FORECASTS - MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Bhutan - Forecast mobile subscriber growth - 2016; 2018; 2021
  • BRUNEI DARUSSALAM
    • FORECASTS - BROADBAND SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Brunei Darussalam - Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration - 2016; 2018; 2021
    • FORECASTS - MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Brunei Darussalam - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration - 2016; 2018; 2021
  • CAMBODIA
    • FORECASTS - BROADBAND SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Cambodia - Forecast Broadband subscribers - 2016; 2018; 2021
    • FORECASTS - MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Cambodia - Forecast mobile subscriber growth - 2016; 2018; 2021
  • CHINA
    • FORECASTS BROADBAND SUBSCRIBERS - 2016 - 2021
      • Table China - Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration rates - 2016; 2018; 2021
    • FORECASTS: MOBILE INTERNET SUBSCRIBERS 2016-2020
      • Table China - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates - 2016; 2018; 2021
  • GEORGIA
    • FORECASTS - BROADBAND SUBSCRIBERS - 2018; 2020; 2022
      • Table Georgia - Forecast - fixed broadband subscribers - 2018; 2020; 2022
    • FORECASTS - MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS - 2018; 2020; 2022
      • Table Georgia - Forecast - mobile subscribers - 2018; 2020; 2022
  • HONG KONG
    • FORECASTS - FIXED BROADBAND SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Hong Kong - Forecast - Fixed Broadband subscribers - 2012 - 2016; 2018; 2021
    • FORECASTS - MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Hong Kong - Forecast mobile subscriber growth - 2016; 2018; 2021
  • INDIA
    • FORECASTS - BROADBAND SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table India - Forecast Broadband subscribers - 2016; 2018; 2021
    • FORECASTS - MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table India - Forecast mobile subscribers - 2016; 2018; 2021
  • INDONESIA
    • FORECASTS - BROADBAND SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Indonesia - Forecast of fixed broadband subscribers and penetration rates - 2016; 2018; 2021
    • FORECASTS - MOBILE SUBSCIRBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Indonesia - Forecast of mobile subscribers and penetration rates - 2016; 2018; 2021
  • JAPAN
    • FORECASTS - BROADBAND SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Japan - broadband subscriber forecast- 2016; 2018; 2021
    • FORECASTS - MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Japan - mobile subscriber forecast- 2016; 2018; 2021
  • KAZAKHSTAN
    • FORECASTS - BROADBAND SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Kazakhstan - Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration rates - 2011 - 2016; 2018; 2021
    • FORECASTS - MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Kazakhstan - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates - 2011 - 2016; 2018; 2021
  • KYRGYZSTAN
    • FORECASTS - FIXED-LINE MARKET - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Kyrgyzstan - Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates - 2011 - 2016; 2018; 2021
    • FORECASTS - BROADBAND SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Kyrgyzstan - Forecast fixed broadband internet subscribers and penetration rates - 2010 - 2016; 2018; 2011
  • LAOS
    • FORECASTS - BROADBAND SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Laos - Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration - 2016; 2018; 2021
    • FORECASTS - MOBILE MARKET - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Laos - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration - 2016; 2018; 2021
  • MACAU
    • FORECASTS - BROADBAND SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Macau - Scenario 1 - Fibre broadband subscriber growth
      • Table Macau - Scenario 2 -Fibre broadband subscriber growth
    • FORECASTS - MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Macau - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates - 2016; 2018; 2021
  • MALAYSIA
    • FORECASTS - BROADBAND SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Malaysia - Forecast broadband subscriber growth - 2016; 2018; 2021
    • FORECASTS - MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Malaysia - Forecast mobile subscriber growth - 2016; 2018; 2021
  • MONGOLIA
    • FORECASTS - BROADBAND SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Mongolia - Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration rates - 2016; 2018; 2021
    • FORECASTS - MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Mongolia - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates - 2011 - 2016; 2018; 2021
  • MYANMAR
    • FORECASTS - BROADBAND SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Myanmar - Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration rates - 2011 - 2016; 2018; 2021
    • FORECASTS - MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Myanmar - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates - 2011 - 2016; 2018; 2021
  • NEPAL
    • FORECASTS - BROADBAND SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Nepal - Forecast Broadband subscribers - 2016; 2018; 2021
    • FORECASTS - MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Nepal - Forecast mobile subscribers - 2016; 2018; 2021
  • PAKISTAN
    • FORECASTS - BROADBAND SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Pakistan - Forecast fixed broadband internet subscribers - 2016; 2018; 2021
    • FORECASTS - MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Pakistan - Forecast mobile subscribers - 2016; 2018; 2021
  • PHILIPPINES
    • FORECASTS - BROADBAND SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Philippines - Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration rates - 2016; 2018; 2021
    • FORECASTS - MOBILE SERVICES - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Philippines - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates - 2016; 2018; 2021
  • SINGAPORE
    • FORECASTS - MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Singapore - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration - 2016; 2018; 2021
  • SOUTH KOREA
    • FORECASTS - BROADBAND SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table South Korea - Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration rates - 2016; 2018; 2021
    • FORECASTS - FORECAST MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS AND PENETRATION RATES - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table South Korea - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates - 2016; 2018; 2021
  • SRI LANKA
    • FORECASTS - BROADBAND SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Sri Lanka - Forecast Broadband subscribers - 2016; 2018; 2021
    • FORECASTS - MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Sri Lanka - Forecast mobile subscriber growth - 2016; 2018; 2021
  • TAIWAN
    • FORECASTS - FIXED BROADBAND SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Taiwan - Forecast Fixed Broadband Subscribers - 2016; 2018; 2021
    • FORECAST - LTE MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS - 2016 (ACTUAL); 2018, 2021
      • Table Taiwan - Forecast 4G LTE mobile subscribers and penetration rates - 2016; 2018; 2021
  • TAJIKISTAN
    • FORECASTS - BROADBAND SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Tajikistan - Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration rates - 2016; 2018; 2021
    • FORECASTS - MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Tajikistan - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates - 2016; 2018; 2021
  • THAILAND
    • FORECASTS - BROADBAND SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Thailand - Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration - 2011-2016; 2018; 2021
    • FORECASTS -- MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Thailand - Forecast mobile subscriber growth - 2016; 2018; 2021
  • TURKMENISTAN
    • FORECASTS - BROADBAND SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Turkmenistan - Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration rates - 2016; 2018; 2021
    • FORECASTS - MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Turkmenistan - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates - 2016; 2018; 2021
  • UZBEKISTAN
    • FORECASTS - FIXED BROADBAND INTERNET SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Uzbekistan - Forecasts - fixed broadband subscribers - 2016; 2018; 2021
    • FORECASTS - MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Uzbekistan - Forecasts - mobile subscribers and penetration - 2016; 2018; 2021
  • VIETNAM
    • FORECASTS - FIXED BROADBAND SUBSCRIBERS - 2016 - 2018; 2021
      • Table Vietnam - Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration rates - 2016 - 2018; 2021
    • FORECASTS - MOBILE SERVICES - 2016; 2018; 2021
      • Table Vietnam - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates - 2016; 2018; 2021

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