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Sweet Baked Goods: U.S. Market Trends

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Sweet Baked Goods: U.S. Market Trends

Sweet Baked Goods: U.S. Market Trends
discusses how consumers generally eat sweet baked goods to indulge in a treat, with younger people in particular continually seeking out new exciting tastes and indulgent experiences. Increasingly however others are looking for healthier more nutritious indulgences, or “better for you” treats that taste good. Convenience continues to be a significant trend as busy consumers seek out “minis”, single packs and other products packaged for on-the-go snacking. Smaller-size products like these also address the needs of the growing single or dual household segment, older people, and consumers watching their weight or overall health.

Packaged Facts projects the packaged sweet baked goods market will continue to be challenged in the near future with retail dollar sales projected to grow by a CAGR of 2.8% to reach $23 billion in 2019. Overall volume will likely remain flat as consumers stay concerned about health and diet, and increasingly seek out healthier snacks, or when they want to indulge, fresher baked goods from in-store and independent bakeries. Lower-priced private label products will put pressure on national brand marketers that as the report notes will have to continue innovating with product, marketing and retail strategies.

Scope of Report

Sweet Baked Goods: U.S. Market Trends presents a detailed analysis of the U.S. consumer market for packaged sweet baked goods sold in retail outlets, excluding independent and in-store bakeries. It outlines key issues and trends affecting the overall market and analyzes all product categories including shelf-stable, refrigerated, and frozen products as well as segments that include cookies, cakes, pies, bakery snacks, doughnuts, muffins, pastry/Danish/coffee cake, cheesecakes and toaster pastries/tarts. Sweet Baked Goods: U.S. Market Trends combines Packaged Facts’ report Packaged Sweet Baked Snacks and Desserts: U.S. Market Trends published in December 2013 with sweet goods (doughnuts, muffins, pastry/Danish/coffee cake, and toaster pastries/tarts) previously covered in our report Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods: U.S. Market Trends also published in December 2013.

Methodology

The information in this report was obtained from both primary and secondary research. Primary research included proprietary Packaged Facts online consumer surveys as well as consultation with industry sources and on-site examinations of the retail sector. Secondary research entailed gathering data from relevant trade, business and government sources, as well as company promotional literature and annual reports.

Our estimates of market size and company performance are based on various sources including reported revenues of product manufacturers and retailers, publications and other market research sources. Our analysis of consumer trends relies on data from various sources including national online consumer usage surveys conducted in November 2015 by Packaged Facts, and Simmons National Consumer Surveys for Spring 2005 through Spring 2015 from Experian Marketing Services. The Packaged Facts national online consumer surveys reflect a panel of 2,000 U.S. adults (age 18+) that is balanced to the national population on the primary demographic measures of gender, age bracket, race/ethnicity, geographic region, marital status, presence or absence of children in the household, and household income. On an ongoing basis, Experian Marketing Services conducts booklet-based surveys of a large and random sample of consumers (approximately 25,000 for each 12-month survey compilation) who in aggregate represent a statistically accurate cross-section of the U.S. population.


  • Executive Summary
    • Introduction
      • Scope of Report
      • Methodology
      • Product Category and Segment Definitions
      • Areas Outside Scope
    • The Market
      • Packaged Sweet Baked Goods Market Sales at $20 Billion in 2014
      • Category Sales: Shelf-stable Products Dominate
      • Product Segment Sales
      • Sales by Retail Channel
      • Market Forecast
    • The Marketers
      • Mondelez Leads the Market
      • Private Label a Significant Factor
    • Marketing, New Product, and Retailing Trends
      • Marketing Trends
      • 360-Degree Marketing
      • Co-creating Promotions with Consumers
      • Product Trends
      • Clean Label
      • No Funky Stuff
      • New Tastes and Experiences
      • Combination Products Blend Tastes and Textures of Favorite Products
      • Retail Trends
      • Increased Focus on Convenience Stores
      • "Buy Now" on E-Commerce
    • The Consumer
      • Americans Love to Snack
      • Americans Eat Healthier, but Also Indulge
        • Table Healthy vs. Indulgent Attitudes About Food, 2005-2015 (percent)
      • The Percentage of Households Eating Cookies Declines, but Most Americans Still Love Them
      • Bar Consumption Has Gone Up as Snack Cake Eating Has Gone Down
      • Perceptions and Purchase Habits in Shelf Stable Aisle Compared to In-Store and Independent Bakeries
  • The Market
    • Introduction
      • Scope of Report
      • Methodology
      • Product Category and Segment Definitions
      • Areas Outside Scope
    • Market Size and Growth
      • Packaged Sweet Baked Goods Market Sales at $20 Billion in 2014
      • Dollar Sales Growth Slows Down in Last Two Years
        • Table Retail Dollar Sales of Packaged Sweet Baked Goods, 2010-2014 (in millions)
      • Factors Affecting Market Growth
      • Median Incomes Down from 2007 High
      • Sluggish Growth of Household Formations
      • Category Sales: Shelf-stable Products Dominate
        • Table Retail Category Dollar Sales of Packaged Sweet Baked Goods, 2010-2014 (in millions)
      • Product Segment Sales
        • Table IRI-Tracked Sales of Packaged Shelf-Stable Sweet Baked Goods Product Segments, 2014-2015 (dollar, unit and volume sales in millions)
      • Refrigerated and Frozen
        • Table IRI-Tracked Sales of Refrigerated and Frozen Sweet Baked Goods Product Segments, 2014-2015 (dollar, unit and volume sales in millions)
      • Sales by Retail Channel
        • Table Retail Dollar Sales of Sweet Baked Goods by Retail Channel, 2015 (millions)
      • Market Forecast
  • The Marketers
    • Overview
      • Private Label a Significant Factor in Market
        • Table Selected Private-Label Food Brands with Sweet Baked Goods, 2015
      • Private Label Accounts for Quarter of Shelf-Stable Sweet Baked Goods Sales
        • Table Private Label Dollar and Volume Sales as a Percentage of Total Shelf-Stable Sweet Baked Goods, 2014-2015
      • Leading Marketers of Shelf-Stable Packaged Sweet Baked Goods
        • Table IRI-Tracked Sales of Packaged Sweet Baked Goods Marketers, 2014-2015 (millions of dollars, percent)
      • Shelf-Stable Cookies
        • Table IRI-Tracked Sales of Leading Packaged Shelf-Stable Cookie Marketers, 2014-2015 (millions of dollars, percent)
      • Shelf-Stable Bakery Snacks (includes cupcakes, brownies)
        • Table IRI-Tracked Sales of Leading Packaged Shelf-Stable Bakery Snack Marketers, 2014-2015 (millions of dollars, percent)
      • Shelf-Stable Cakes
        • Table IRI-Tracked Sales of Leading Packaged Shelf-Stable Cake Marketers, 2014-2015 (millions of dollars, percent)
      • Shelf-Stable Doughnuts
        • Table IRI-Tracked Sales of Leading Packaged Shelf-Stable Doughnut Marketers, 2014-2015 (millions of dollars, percent)
      • Shelf-Stable Pastry/Danish/Coffee Cakes
        • Table IRI-Tracked Sales of Leading Packaged Shelf-Stable Pastry/Danish/Coffee Cake Marketers, 2014-2015 (millions of dollars, percent)
      • Shelf-Stable and Frozen Toaster Pastries/Tarts
        • Table IRI-Tracked Sales of Leading Packaged Shelf-Stable Toaster Pastries/Tarts Marketers, 2014-2015 (millions of dollars, percent)
      • Shelf-Stable Muffins
        • Table IRI-Tracked Sales of Leading Packaged Shelf-Stable Muffin Marketers, 2014-2015 (millions of dollars, percent)
      • Shelf-Stable Pies
        • Table IRI-Tracked Sales of Leading Packaged Shelf-Stable Pie Marketers, 2014-2015 (millions of dollars, percent)
      • Refrigerated and Frozen Sweet Baked Goods
        • Table IRI-Tracked Sales of Refrigerated and Frozen Product Segments, 2014-2015 (millions of dollars, percent)
      • Mergers, Acquisitions, Divestitures
    • Competitive Profiles
      • Mondelez International
        • Table Mondelez International Global Sales by Product Category, 2014 (percent)
        • Table Mondelez International Packaged Sweet Baked Goods
      • McKee Foods Corporation
        • Table McKee Foods Packaged Sweet Baked Goods
      • Kellogg Company
        • Table Kellogg Company Packaged Sweet Baked Goods
      • Bimbo Bakeries USA
        • Table Bimbo Bakeries Packaged Sweet Baked Goods
      • Hostess Brands
        • Table Hostess Brands Packaged Sweet Baked Goods
      • Campbell Soup Company (Pepperidge Farm)
        • Table Pepperidge Farm Packaged Sweet Baked Goods
      • Flowers Foods
        • Table Flowers Foods Packaged Sweet Baked Goods
      • General Mills
        • Table General Mills Packaged Sweet Baked Goods
      • ConAgra
        • Table ConAgra Packaged Sweet Baked Goods
      • Krispy Kreme Doughnut Corporation
        • Table Krispy Kreme Packaged Sweet Baked Goods
      • Snyder's-Lance, Inc.
        • Table Snyder's-Lance Packaged Sweet Baked Goods
  • Marketing, New Product, and Retail Trends
    • Marketing Trends
      • 360-Degree Marketing
      • Connecting with Consumers In-Store and Online
      • Use of Tie-Ins Continue to Extend Awareness
      • Mondelez Continues Sports Sponsorships
      • Movie Tie-Ins Reach Kids
      • Co-creating Promotions with Consumers
      • From Foodservice to Retail
      • Acquiring Makers of Better for You Products
      • Product Trends
      • Better for You a Key Driver
      • Clean Label
      • Mondelez's Mindful Snacking
      • Trans Fats
      • Gluten Free Continues On Uptrend
      • Allergen Free
      • Non GMO Part of "Free-From" Trend
      • Simply Simple Brand Names
      • No Funky Stuff
      • Touting Real, Fresh Ingredients
      • Popularity of Grains Expands
      • Fiber One Surges
      • Better For You Muffins
      • Thin Is In More Than Ever
      • Minis for Portion Control
      • Breakfast Biscuits Expand
      • Fortified, Functional Cookies
      • High-Protein Cookies
      • New Tastes and Experiences
      • Salt and Sweet Is Fully Mainstream
      • Beyond Salt and Sweet
      • Savory Snacks Get Sweet
      • Combination Products Blend Tastes and Textures of Favorite Products
      • Tapping into Ethnic Traditions
      • Combining Well-Known Cookies and Candies
      • Limited Edition Continues to Flourish
      • Decadence from Gourmet to Mass
      • Convenience
      • Minis for On-The-Go Convenience
      • Single-Serve
      • Retailing Trends
      • Starbucks Selling French Baker's Cookies in New York Stores
      • In-Store Bakeries Continue to Challenge Center Store
      • Micro Markets a New Retail Trend
      • ALDI Reformulates Exclusive Brand Food Products
      • Increased Focus on Convenience Stores
      • Mondelez Looks for Retail Innovation
      • "Buy Now" on E-Commerce
      • Facebook Partnership
      • Subscription Snack Boxes
  • The Consumer
    • Sources
      • Americans Love to Snack
        • Table Consumer Attitudes about Snacking: Agree a Lot/Little, 2005-2015 (percent)
      • More Than Half of American Adults Watch Diet
        • Table Adults Watching Diet, Reasons and Foods Eaten To Watch Diet, 2005-2015 (percent)
      • A Third of American Households Eat Low Fat/Fat Free Foods
        • Table Type of Low Fat/Fat Free Foods Eaten Most Often by Households, 2005-2015 (percent)
      • Demographic Characteristics of Adults Who Eat Low Fat/Fat Free Foods, Cookies and Chips
        • Table Demographic Characteristics of Adults Who Eat Low Fat/Fat Free Foods, Cookies and Chips, 2015 (index)
      • Americans Eat Healthier, but Also Indulge
        • Table Healthy vs. Indulgent Attitudes About Food, 2005-2015 (percent)
      • Demographic Characteristics of Healthy and Indulgent Eaters
        • Table Demographic Characteristics of "Healthy" and "Unhealthy" Eaters, 2015 (index)
      • Over 50% of Adults Tending to Cut Back on Sweet Baked Goods
      • Less Than 20% of Adults Say They Switched to Healthier Versions of Sweet Baked Goods
      • The Percentage of Households Eating Cookies Declines, but Most Americans Still Love Them
        • Table Households That Eat Ready-To-Eat Cookies and Kind/Type Eaten Most Often, 2005-2015 (percent)
      • Demographic Characteristics of Adults Who Eat Bite-Size Cookies Compared to Eaters of Any Cookies
        • Table Demographic Characteristics of Adults Who Eat Bite-Size Cookies Compared to Eaters of Any Cookies, 2015 (index)
      • Nabisco is Favorite Cookie Master Brand
        • Table Brand of Cookies Eaten Most Often by Households, 2005-2015 (percent)
      • Demographic Characteristics of Adults Who Eat Nabisco Cookies Compared to Store Brand Cookie Eaters
        • Table Demographic Characteristics of Adults Who Eat Nabisco Cookies Compared to Eaters of Store Brand Cookies, 2015 (index)
      • Snack Cake Consumption Down Over Last 10 Years
        • Table Households That Eat Ready-To-Eat Snack Cakes and Type Eaten Most Often, 2005-2015 (percent)
      • Bar Consumption Has Gone Up as Snack Cake Eating Has Gone Down
      • Demographic Characteristics of Adults Who Eat Breakfast/Cereal/Granola Bars and Snack Cakes
        • Table Demographic Characteristics of Adults Who Eat Breakfast/Cereal/Granola Bars and Snack Cakes, 2015 (index)
      • Little Debbie and Hostess Fight it Out as Most Popular Snack Cake Brands
        • Table Brand of Ready-To-Eat Snack Cakes Eaten Most Often by Households, 2005-2015 (percent)
      • Demographic Characteristics of Adults Who Eat Little Debbie and Hostess Ready-To-Eat Snack Cakes
        • Table Demographic Characteristics of Adults Who Eat Little Debbie and Hostess Ready-To-Eat Snack Cakes, 2015(index)
      • Doughnut Consumption Declines but 60% of Americans Eat Them
        • Table Households That Eat Doughnuts and Brand Eaten Most Often, 2005-2015 (percent)
      • Demographic Characteristics of Adults Who Eat Dunkin' Donuts, Krispy Kreme and Hostess Doughnuts
        • Table Demographic Characteristics of Adults Who Eat Selected Brands of Doughnuts, 2015 (index)
      • 40% of American Households Eat Breakfast Pastries
        • Table Households That Eat Breakfast Pastries and Type Eaten Most Often, 2005-2015 (percent)
      • Demographic Characteristics of Adults Who Eat Selected Types of Breakfast Pastries
        • Table Demographic Characteristics of Adults Who Eat Selected Types of Breakfast Pastries, 2015 (index)
      • Little Debbie, Hostess and Entenmann's Most Popular Breakfast Pastries
        • Table Brand of Breakfast Pastries Eaten Most Often by Households, 2005-2015 (percent)
      • Nearly 30% of Households Eat Packaged Muffins
        • Table Brand of Packaged Muffins Eaten Most Often by Households, 2005-2015 (percent)
      • More Than a Third of Households Eat Toaster Pastries
        • Table Brand of Toaster Pastries Eaten Most Often by Households, 2005-2015 (percent)
      • Demographic Characteristics of Adults Who Eat Kellogg's Pop Tarts and Pillsbury Toaster Strudel
        • Table Demographic Characteristics of Adults Who Eat Leading Toaster Pastry Brands, 2015 (index)
      • Consumers Believe In-Store and Independent Bakeries Sell Fresher, Higher-Quality Products
        • Table Selected Consumer Quotes about Preference for Purchasing Sweet Baked Goods from In-Store or Independent Bakeries, 2015
      • Consumers Prefer Buying Specific Products in Different Retail Settings

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