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Sugar, Sugar Substitute, and Sweetener Trends in the U.S., 4th Edition


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Sugar, Sugar Substitute, and Sweetener Trends in the U.S., 4th Edition

Can we Americans break our sugar addiction – or at least move it in a different direction?

Information certainly abounds about the link between sugar consumption and health conditions such as obesity, diabetes and heart disease. In our 4th edition of Sugar, Sugar Substitute, and Sweetener Trends in the U.S., Packaged Facts examines how consumers’ awareness of possible ill effects of sugar affects their consumption habits. People now are more motivated to switch sugar for sweeteners they believe are more healthful, including less refined sugars, honey, coconut sugar, and natural zero calorie sweeteners.

This trend will affect the market for commodity sugar, especially white granulated. And even though zero-calorie sweeteners can suffer from a bad reputation, Packaged Facts projects that acceptance of, and the market for, these products will grow, in part because natural options such as stevia and monk fruit are becoming more available. Pragmatism will affect this trend as well. The growing number of Americans being diagnosed with diabetes or taking steps to prevent it will drive demand for alternatives to sugar. Moreover, economic and environmental sustainability factors are increasingly important to consumer choices about sweeteners and avoidance of genetically modified foods will likely drive sweetener selection for a growing number of consumers.

Scope of Report

This report estimates and analyzes the size, growth rates and composition of the sugar and sweeteners market in the United States, focusing specifically on the retail market for kitchen and tabletop use while also discussing major trends that are currently impacting or are expected to impact the selection and use of sweeteners for foodservice and industrial use by processors. The sugar and sweetener products and markets covered in this report include those found at retail including sugars, corn and cane sweeteners, pancake and maple syrup, honey, molasses, zero calorie sweeteners, both those classified as natural and artificial, and others that may be considered niche sweeteners, such as agave nectar and coconut sugar.

Report Methodology

The information in this report was obtained from both primary and secondary research. Consumer data were derived from a Packaged Facts national online consumer survey conducted in April 2014 with a panel of 2,000 U.S. adults (age 18+) balanced to the national population on the primary demographic measures of gender, age range, ethnicity, geographic region, marital status, presence or absence of children in the household and household income.

Additional consumer data were obtained from the Simmons National Consumer Survey through Fall 2013 from Experian Marketing Services. On an ongoing basis, Experian Marketing Services conducts booklet-based surveys of a large and random sample of consumers (approximately 25,000 for each 12-month survey compilation) who in aggregate represent a statistically accurate cross-section of the U.S. population.

Retail sales figures credited to IRI (Chicago, IL) are based on IRI aggregated multi-outlet (MULO) sales tracking, which represents sales through U.S. supermarkets, drugstores including Walgreens, CVS and Rite Aid), mass merchandisers (Wal-Mart, Target, Kmart and Shopko), warehouse clubs (Sam’s Club and BJ’s, but not Costco), dollar stores (excluding Dollar Tree) and military commissaries.

Nine retailers in three geographic locations (Houston, TX, Minneapolis, MN, and New York and New Jersey) were visited and sugar and sweetener offerings studied in conjunction with this report. A wide range of industry sources were also leveraged including interviews and discussions with industry participants and subject matter experts, sugar and sweetener company websites, videos embedded in these websites, trade publications, business newspapers and magazines, consumer blogs, financial blogs, social media, annual reports, 10Ks and press releases.

Who Will Benefit From This Report

  • Food Retailers
  • Sugar Producers
  • Manufacturers and Marketers of Zero Calorie Sweeteners
  • Honey and Maple Syrup Producers, Processors and Marketers
  • Ingredient and Agricultural Commodity Producers
  • Food and Beverage Manufacturers
  • Foodservice Operators
  • Private Label (Retail) Branding Firms
  • Advertising Agencies
  • Investment Banks
Benefits of This Report Include
  • U.S. Retail Market Size Estimates through 2018 for:
Sugar

Sugar Substitutes

Honey

Pancake and Waffle Syrup

Pure Maple Syrup

Corn Syrup

Molasses
  • Market Share of leading brands and private label for each sweetener type
  • Coverage of the latest issues and trends affecting specific sweeteners
  • Descriptions of new product introductions
  • Packaged Facts predictions for sugars and sweeteners


SAMPLE INSIGHTS AND HIGHLIGHTS

  • In the retail market for sugar and sweeteners, sugar is expected to account for almost half of the market’s dollar share. Pure maple syrup, corn and cane sweeteners and molasses taken collectively are projected to generate less than 6% of total sales.
  • Over half of all sugar and sweetener purchases in 2014 are expected to be made at supermarkets and grocery stores with just over 30% at mass merchandise outlets.
  • Packaged Facts expects consumer interest and demand for non-GMO sugar and other sweeteners to increase. It is generally accepted that sugar produced from cane is non-GMO while that produced from beet has been genetically modified.
  • Both economic and agricultural sustainability are expected to play a larger role in consumer selection of sweeteners in the coming years with more companies acquiring certifications and associated seals to readily communicate benefits such as fair trade and carbon neutral.
  • Opportunities that are common to nearly all sweetener types to varying degrees include packaging formats and sizes to enhance convenience, portability and on-the-go use, non-GMO versions and the introduction of flavored sweeteners, a growing trend blurring the distinction between sweeteners and flavor concentrates sold primarily for on-the-go beverage use, including water enhancement.
  • Ensuring that there is an organic sugar option at conventional supermarkets represents an important retail opportunity for sugar.
  • Flavored sweeteners, both caloric and non-caloric, represent potential growth opportunities for on-the-go and at-home use, with both sweet and savory flavors. Recent introductions of flavored sweeteners include sweet flavor profiles made with agave syrup and stevia, some targeting specific uses such as to flavor coffee.
  • Zero-calorie sweeteners are expected to drive development of more innovative blends for sugar, carbohydrate and caloric reduction using multiple sweeteners including sugars or other caloric sweeteners
  • The market for agave nectar is expected to grow and Packaged Facts anticipates the greatest opportunities for retailers are to drive sales through merchandising in both the sweetener and syrup aisles, to add private label and flavored offerings, such as maple for breakfast use and others targeting coffee and tea.
  • The outlook for coconut sugar looks promising given this highly sustainable, organic sweetener’s lower glycemic index.
  • Growing awareness of colony collapse disorder (CCD) is raising concern about pesticide use and potential interest in organic or non-GMO honey as a way to avoid it. Retailers may increase sales by stocking organic honey but will need to source it from outside the United States due to the prevalence of domestic GMO crops.
  • Results of Packaged Facts’ survey indicate that the highest purchase rates of conventional white, brown or powdered sugar were by respondents age 45 and up, with the highest percentage rate for granulated and powdered sugar among 70 to 74 year olds while the highest percentage of past 12 month purchases of coconut sugar, evaporated cane sugar and organic sugar were generally reported by younger consumers between the ages of 25 and 34.

  • Executive Summary
    • Scope and Methodology
    • Report Methodology
    • Definitions and Classifications
      • What Are Added Sugars?
      • Zero-Calorie Sweeteners
    • Market Outlook
      • Table Projected U.S. Retail Sales of Sugar and Sweeteners, 2013-2018 (in million $)
      • Table Projected U.S. Retail Sales of Sugar and Sweeteners, 2014 (Dollar Sales and Market Share)
      • Factors to Market Growth
      • Growth in Non-GMO Foods
      • Growing Interest in Sustainability
      • Market Opportunities
      • Sugar
      • Zero-Calorie Sweeteners
      • Other Natural Caloric Sweeteners
      • Honey
      • Implications for the Food Industry and Foodservice
      • Changes to Nutrition Facts Panel
      • Soft Drink Companies Bear Brunt of Pressure to Cut Sugar
      • Industry Eagerly Awaits More Cost Effective and Better-Tasting Stevia
      • Sugar Isn't Just Sugar: Pickier Consumers Demand GMO Transparency
      • Processors Face Uncertainty Over Sugar Prices
    • Sweetener Market Size and Growth
      • Table IRI-Tracked MULO U.S. Retail Sugar and Sweeteners Sales and Volume, 52 Weeks Ended January 26, 2014
      • Sugar: A Market in Flux
      • Reduced Consumer Demand for Sugar
      • Niche Sugars Gain Wider Appeal
      • Mexican Sugar Imports
      • Growing Interest in Non-GMO Foods
      • Leading Sugar Brands
      • New and Niche Sugar Products at Retail
      • Zero-Calorie Sweeteners
      • Leading Zero-Calorie Sweetener Brands
      • Flavored Zero-Calorie Sweetener Offerings
      • Natural Zero-Calorie Sweeteners - A Private Label Opportunity at Retail
      • Umbrella Brands Growing in Popularity for Zero-Calorie Sweeteners
      • Other Caloric Sweeteners
      • Coconut Sugar
      • Honey
      • U.S. Honey Market Characterized by Many Small Brands
      • Honey Product Trends
      • Conventional Kitchen Syrups
      • Maple, Pancake and Waffle Syrup
      • Cane and Corn Syrup
      • Molasses
      • Consumer Attitudes and Behaviors
  • Market Forecast and Opportunities
    • Factors to Market Growth
      • Added Sugars in the Spotlight
      • Added Sugars Implicated in Obesity and Diabetes
      • Sugar Consumption, Independent of Obesity, Linked to Diabetes
      • Added Sugars Increasingly Linked to Heart Disease
      • Spotlight on Added Sugars Leads to Global "Action on Sugar"
      • U.S. Government Efforts to Cut Added Sugar
        • Table Sources of Added Sugars in U.S. Diets: Consumers Age 2 Years or Over, NHANES 2005-2006
        • Table Added Sugar Consumption: Key Consumer Behaviors and Potential Sugar-Cutting Strategies
      • Sugar: The Next Cigarette? Efforts to Guard Public Health
      • Regulatory Measures: Bans and Portion-Size Restrictions
      • Health-Conscious Consumers Taking Control
      • Growth in Non-GMO Foods
      • Retail Sugar and Sweetener Product Marketers Promote Non-GMO
      • Growing Interest in Sustainability
    • Projected Market Growth
      • Overall Retail Sweetener Market Projected to Suffer from Lower Sugar Sales
        • Table Projected U.S. Retail Sales of Sugar and Sweeteners, 2013-2018 (in million $)
    • Market Opportunities
      • Sugar - Focusing on the Positives
      • Benefits of Niche Sugar Brands Offer Growth Opportunities
      • Highlighting Organic and Non-GMO
      • Packaging and Product Formats for Enhanced Consumer Experience
      • Not Just Sugar
      • Retail Opportunities for Zero-Calorie Sweeteners
      • Continuously Evolving Packaging Formats
      • Zero-Calorie Sweeteners to Steer Reduced Sugar Blends
      • Other Caloric Sweeteners
      • Coconut Sugar
      • Honey: The New Liquid Gold?
      • Conventional Kitchen Syrups
      • Can Maple Follow in Honey's Footsteps?
      • Opportunities for Corn and Cane Sugars
    • Food & Foodservice Industry Implications: The Future of Sugar and Sweeteners
      • Pressure on Processors Mounts with Proposed Added Sugar Labeling
      • Soft Drink Companies Bear Brunt of Pressure to Cut Sugar
      • Stepping Up Self-Monitoring Efforts for Added Sugars
      • Industry Eagerly Awaits More Cost Effective and Better-Tasting Stevia
      • Cargill Promotes ViaTech for Processors of Reduced Sugar Products
      • Can Stevia Salvage Slumping Soft Drink Sales?
      • Coca-Cola Life
      • Pepsi Next
      • Reb D and M Improve Stevia's Sweetness with Fewer Off-Notes
      • Using Biotechnology to Enhance Stevia's Appeal
      • But Will It Still Be Natural?
      • More Zero-Calorie Sweetener Use
      • Foodservice Opportunities for Natural Zero-Calorie Sweeteners
      • Beverages and Zero-Calorie Sweeteners Increasingly Inseparable
      • Anti-High Fructose Corn Syrup (HFCS) Sentiment Still Runs High
      • Sugar Isn't Just Sugar - Pickier Consumers Demand GMO Transparency
      • Processors Face Uncertainty Over Sugar Prices
      • Niche Sweeteners Going Mainstream
      • Foodservice Opportunity to Expand Tabletop Sweetener Offerings
      • Growing Consumer Awareness of Sustainability
  • Sweetener Market Size & Growth
    • Table IRI-Tracked MULO U.S. Retail Sugar and Sweeteners Sales and Volume, 52 Weeks Ended January 26, 2014
    • Size and Composition of the Market
      • U.S. Sugar and Sweeteners Retail Market Projected at $4.28 billion for 2014
        • Table Projected U.S. Retail Sugar and Sweeteners Market, 2014 (Dollar Sales and Market Share)
      • Supermarkets Expected to Lead in Sales of Sugar and Sweeteners
        • Table U.S. Sugar and Sweeteners Market: Projected Dollar Sales by Retail Channel, 2014
      • Offerings Vary Greatly by Retail Channel and Specific Retailer
    • Sugar: A Market in Flux
      • Table IRI-Tracked (MULO) U.S. Retail Sugar Sales, 52 Weeks Ended January 26, 2014 (Dollar Sales, Volume, 52 Week % Change and Share)
      • Global Sugar Production Exceeds Global Demand
      • U.S. Beet Sugar Production Greater than Non-GMO Cane
        • Table U.S. Beet and Cane Sugar Production by Fiscal Year and Percent Share 2004/05 - 2013/14E
      • New Farm Bill Continues Sugar Program Unchanged
      • U.S. Producers Seek Legal Action and Financial Remedy for Mexican Dumping
      • Global and Domestic Sugar Policy Impact on U.S. Retail Prices
      • Recast of Per Capita Sugar Consumption Calculation
        • Table U.S Sugar Deliveries for Human Consumption Non-Industrial Use Type, 2004-2013
        • Table U.S. Sugar Deliveries for Human Consumption by Industrial Use, 2004-2013
    • Sugar Substitutes
      • Zero-Calorie Sweeteners
    • Artificial Zero-Calorie Sweeteners
      • Aspartame
      • Saccharin
      • Sucralose
    • Natural, Plant Based Zero-Calorie Sweeteners
      • Stevia
    • Opportunities Abound for Stevia; Still in Its Infancy
      • Monk Fruit
      • Polyols
      • Erythritol
      • Xylitol
      • Other Caloric Sweeteners
      • Agave
      • Agave Market Experiences Double Digit Growth
      • Coconut Sugar
      • Retail Market for Coconut Sugar Still Emerging
      • Evaporated Cane Juice
      • Sweetener Blends
    • Honey
      • Production
        • Table U.S. Honey Production and Active Colonies, 2008-2013 (Pounds and Number in Millions)
        • Table U.S. Honey Production: Top Five U.S. Honey Producing States, 2011-2013 (Pounds in Thousands)
      • Honey Imports on the Rise
        • Table U.S. Honey Imports by Importing Country, Calendar Years 2009-2013 (Metric Tons)
        • Table Percent Share of U.S. Honey Imports by Type, 2011
      • Production Challenges
      • Honey Consumption
    • Conventional Kitchen Syrups
      • Table IRI-Tracked MULO U.S. Retail Syrups and Molasses Market Size and Growth, 52 Weeks Ended January 26, 2014 (Dollar and Volume Sales, % Change and Share of Category)
    • Maple Syrup
      • Maple Syrup Consumption
      • Maple Syrup Production
        • Table U.S. Maple Syrup Production by State, 2013 (Gallons and Percent of Total Production)
        • Table U.S. Maple Syrup Production for Retail Sale: By State, 2011-2012 Gallons and Percent of Total Production for Retail
      • Maple Plantations Could Boost Production Per Acre
      • Maple Syrup Heist Goes to Hollywood
  • Marketing and Retailing
    • Sugar
      • Private Label Loses Dollar Sales and Volume for White Granulated
        • Table Top-Selling IRI-Tracked MULO White Granulated Sugar Brands (2013 Dollar Sales, Volume and 52 Week % Change)
      • Private Label Loses the Most in Brown, Powdered and Flavored Segment
        • Table Top-Selling IRI-Tracked MULO Retail Brown/Powder/Flavored Sugar Brands (2013 Dollar Sales, Volume and 52 Week % Change)
      • Consumer Reports of Sugar Brands and Amounts Used
        • Table U.S. Household Use of Sugar: Brands and Amounts Used, 2008-2013 (Percent Purchasing and Pounds Used in Last 30 Days)
      • Niche Sugar Brands Offer Benefits of Better-for-You, Better-for-the-Planet
      • Niche Sugar Brands at Mainstream Retailers
      • Recent Niche Sugar Product Introductions
      • Tate & Lyle Fairtrade Sugars Now Marketed in the USA
      • Sugar In The Raw (Cumberland Packing Corporation)
      • Zulka (Zucarmex)
      • Florida Crystals
      • Wholesome Sweeteners
    • Sugar Marketing and Promotion Tactics
      • Niche Sugar Brands Highlight Organic, non-GMO and Certifications
      • Non-GMO Project Verified
      • Certified CarbonFree(R)
      • Approaches for Promoting Cane, Non-GMO and Organic Sugar
      • Marketing and Promotional Approaches for Mainstream Sugar Brands
      • Online and Social Media Presence of Sugar Companies
        • Table Facebook Statistics for Major Sugar Brands, May 2014
    • Recent Sugar Product Introductions
      • Packaging Innovation for Commodity Sugar
      • Flip Top Pourable Sugar
    • Major Sugar Marketers
      • American Crystal Sugar
      • Domino Foods, Inc.
      • Imperial Sugar Company
      • Michigan Sugar Company
      • Sugar Foods Corporation
      • U.S. Sugar Co., Inc.
      • Wholesome Sweeteners
      • Zucarmex, USA
    • Low and Zero-Calorie Sweetener Brands
      • Table Leading Zero-Calorie Sweetener Brands Listed by Primary Sweetener
      • Splenda Still Dominates
        • Table Top-Selling IRI-Tracked MULO Zero-Calorie Sweetener Brands, 2013 Retail Sales, Volume and 52 Week % Change
      • Sugar Substitute Brands Purchased and Amount Used
        • Table U.S. Household Use of Sugar Substitutes: Brands and Amounts Used, 2008-2013
        • Table Splenda Zero-Calorie Sweetener Products, April 2014
      • Growth Is From Natural Zero-Calorie Sweeteners
      • Truvia Tops Stevia Brands
        • Table Cargill Truvia Natural Sweetener Product Line, April 2014
        • Table Stevia In The Raw Product Line, April 2014
        • Table Pure Via Product Line, April 2014
      • Monk Fruit Brands
        • Table Nectresse Zero-Calorie Sweetener Products, April 2014
        • Table Monk Fruit In The Raw Product Line, April 2014
      • Private Label - A Potential Growth Opportunity for Natural Sweeteners
      • Sweetener Blends: Splenda Loses, Stevia Gains
      • Umbrella Brands Growing in Popularity for Zero-Calorie Sweeteners
      • Natural Blends Expected to Grow
      • Liquid Sweetener Concentrates, a Step Away from Water Enhancers?
      • Sucralose Patent for 40% Higher Yields
      • Major Marketers of Zero-Calorie Sweeteners
      • Cumberland Packing Corp.
      • Heartland Food Products Group
      • McNeil Nutritionals
      • Merisant Company
    • Zero-Calorie Sweetener Marketing and Promotion Tactics
      • Artificial Sweetener Brands Aim to Maintain Awareness and Share
      • Equal Brand Sweeteners
      • Splenda Minis
      • Natural Sweetener Brands Strive to Differentiate Their Way to the Top
      • Other Caloric Sweetener Substitutes
      • Agave Retail Landscape Reveals Relatively Few Private Label Offerings
      • Recent Agave Product Introductions Feature Blends and Flavors
      • Coconut Sugar
      • Coconut Sugar Market Presence Limited, but Growing
      • Coconut Sugar Product Innovation
      • Coconut Sugar Outlook
    • Honey Market Driven by Private Label and Small Brands
      • Table Top-Selling IRI-Tracked MULO Shelf-Stable Honey Brands, 52 Weeks Ended January 26, 2014 (Dollar and Volume Sales by Brand, 52 Week % Change)
      • Honey Market Share Fragmented with Greater Use of Alternate Channels
        • Table Leading IRI-Tracked MULO Honey Brands, 52 Weeks Ended January 26, 2014 (Dollar Sales and Market Share)
        • Table Honey Brand Volume Sales and Volume Share, IRI MULO 52 Weeks Ended January 26, 2014
      • New Honey Products & Marketing Trends
      • To Avoid Pesticides, Greater Demand for Organic and Non-GMO Honey Likely
        • Table Eulogia Honey Product Offerings, 2013-2014
      • Honey That's Easier to Use
      • True Source Certification from Hive to Table
      • Growing Interest in Local and Unique Honey
      • Honey Brands for Hispanic Consumers
    • Conventional Kitchen Syrups
      • Maple, Pancake and Waffle Syrup
        • Table Top-Selling IRI-Tracked MULO Maple, Pancake and Waffle Syrup Brands, Year Ended January 26, 2014 (Dollar Sales, Volume and 52 Week % Change)
        • Table Top-Selling IRI-Tracked MULO Pure Maple Syrup Brands, Year Ended January 26, 2014 (Dollar Sales, Volume, 52 Week % Change, and Market Share)
      • New, International Grading System Debuted
      • Variability in Retail Assortment of Pure Maple Syrup
      • Innovation and Old-Fashioned Marketing Needed to Drive Maple Sales
      • Corn, Crystal, and White Syrup Segment Still Dominated by Karo
        • Table Top-Selling IRI-Tracked MULO Corn/Crystal/White Syrup Brands, Year Ended January 26, 2014 (Dollar Sales, Volume, 52 Week % Change, and Market Share)
      • Regional Brands with Strong Roots
      • Retail Selection Varies by Geography
      • Karo Leverages No HFCS Messaging
      • Future Growth a Serious Challenge for Corn, Crystal and White Syrups
      • Grandma's and Brer Rabbit Brands Dominate the Molasses Segment
        • Table Top-Selling IRI-Tracked MULO Molasses Brands, Year Ended January 26, 2014 (Dollar Sales, Volume, 52 Week % Change, and Market Share)
      • Molasses Products Differ in Nutrient Content
        • Table Nutritional Comparison of Molasses Varieties Brer Rabbit Mild Flavor, Full Flavor and Blackstrap Molasses
      • Grandma's Almost Always on the Retail Shelf
      • Challenging Future for Retail Molasses
  • Consumer Attitudes and Behaviors
    • Overall Sweetener Use, Avoidance and Added Sugars
      • Consumer Attitudes About Sugar and Sweeteners
      • Consumer-Reported Sweetener Use
        • Table Use of Sugar and Sugar Substitutes: U.S. Households With Children Present vs. Without Children Present, 2013
      • Kids' Sugar Consumption Declining
      • Reported Sweetener Use Varies by Ethnicity
      • Millennial Consumers Age 25 to 29 Quick to Adopt Niche Sweeteners
        • Table Select Sweetener Use by U.S. 25- to 29-Year-Olds (Last 30 Days), April 2014
      • Sweetener Purchases Vary by Age
        • Table Percent Purchasing Sugar, by Type, Within Past Year: U.S. Adults Overall and by Age Bracket, April 2014
        • Table Percent Purchasing Sweetener Syrups, by Type, Within Past Year: U.S. Adults Overall and by Age Bracket, April 2014
      • Consumer Reported Changes in Sugar and Sweetener Use
      • CRA Findings: Behaviors Don't Change, Regardless of Awareness
      • CRA Consumer Segmentation Based on Sweetener Attitudes & Behaviors
      • Corn Refiners Association Claims More Consumers Avoid Sugar than HFCS
    • Zero-Calorie Sweeteners
      • Table Ailments and Health Concerns Associated with Higher Incidence of Zero-Calorie Sweetener Use
      • Past Year Zero-Calorie Sweetener Purchases
        • Table Purchasing of Zero-Calorie Sweeteners, by Type, Within Past Year: U.S. Adults Overall and by Age Bracket, April 2014
      • Consumer Reported Changes in Zero-Calorie Sweetener Use
        • Table Higher Levels of Agreement with Selected Health and Diet Attitudinal Statements Among Stevia Users, 2013
    • Honey & Conventional Kitchen Syrups
      • Honey
  • Sweeteners on offer at Sam's Club (from website)
  • Sweetener Products Carrying the Non-GMO Verified Seal as of April 5, 2014
  • Local and Regional Honey Offerings at Select Retailers in Specified U.S. Cities

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