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Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods: U.S. Market Trends

Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods: U.S. Market Trends

Breakfast is regarded as the most important meal of the day, and for food retailers and industry players this widespread emphasis on the morning meal has helped spur the packaged breakfast baked goods market—which includes bagels, donuts, croissants, and English muffins—to sales of $4.9 billion in 2012. Yet challenges abound in this mature market, with growth stunted by health and diet concerns, changing eating patterns, and an increasing desire for fresh rather than packaged foods. In Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods: U.S. Market Trends, market research publisher Packaged Facts provides insights into the present and future of this food industry segment and offers guidance on successfully maximizing the remaining areas with growth potential in this otherwise mature segment.

Scope of Market

This report presents a detailed analysis of the U.S. consumer market for packaged breakfast baked goods sold in retail outlets, excluding independent and in-store bakeries. It outlines key issues and trends affecting the overall market and analyzes all product categories including shelf-stable, refrigerated, and frozen bagels, English Muffins, donuts, muffins, toaster pastries/tarts, and pastries such as Danish, coffee cakes, cinnamon rolls and others. The report also discusses major players and brands and analyzes their key activities and performance. Market size data are provided for 2008–2012 and projections for 2012–2017. All retail channels that sell consumer packaged breakfast baked goods are covered and considered in arriving at overall market size estimates, market trends and competitive analysis. Not included are sales through independent bakeries or sales of fresh products from in-store bakeries of retailers. Packaged products sold in the in-store bakery section and covered by IRI are included.

Methodology

The information in this report was obtained from both primary and secondary research. Primary research included consultation with industry sources and on-site examinations of the retail sector. Secondary research entailed gathering data from relevant trade, business and government sources, as well as company promotional literature and annual reports.

Our estimates of market size and company performance are based on reported revenues of product manufacturers and retailers, and figures from other market research sources. Our analysis of consumer trends primarily relies on cross-tabulations of data compiled by Experian Simmons, New York, NY. On an ongoing basis, Experian Simmons conducts booklet-based surveys of a large and random sample of consumers who in aggregate represent a statistically accurate cross-section of the U.S. population. The 2004 through 2013 surveys cited in this report are based on samples of approximately 25,000 U.S. adults.

Our consumer analysis also draws on a national online consumer usage survey conducted in June 2013 by Packaged Facts. Our survey data represent a national online consumer panel of 2,000 U.S. adults (age 18+) balanced to Census on the primary demographic measures of gender, age bracket, race/ethnicity, geographic region, marital status, presence of children in the household, and household income.


  • Executive Summary
    • Introduction
      • Scope of Market
      • Methodology
      • Product Category Definitions
      • Products Outside Market Scope
      • Market Sales at $4.9 Billion in 2012
        • Table Retail Dollar Sales of Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods, 2008-2012 (in millions)
      • Category Sales: Shelf-stable Products Dominate
        • Table Retail Dollar Sales of Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods: By Category, 2008-2012 (in millions)
      • Product Segment Sales
      • Sales by Retail Channel
      • Market Forecast
      • Bimbo Controls 35% of Mass-Market Sales
        • Table IRI-Tracked Sales of Packaged Breakfast Baked Good Marketers, 2012-2013 (millions of dollars, percent)
      • Mergers, Acquisitions, Divestitures
      • Product Trends
      • New Tastes and Experiences
      • Convenience
      • Marketing Trends
      • Consumers Overwhelmingly Prefer Fresh Bagels
        • Table Consumer Purchasing of Packaged Bagels: By Type, 2004-2013 (percent)
      • Thomas' and Lender's Consumer Favorites
        • Table Brands of Bagels Eaten Most Often, 2004-2013 (percent)
      • Thomas' Dominates English Muffins
        • Table Consumer Purchasing of English Muffins: By Brand, 2004-2013 (percent)
      • Donut Usage Declines
        • Table Consumer Purchasing of Packaged Donuts: By Brand 2004-2013 (percent)
      • Cinnamon Rolls Most Popular Breakfast Pastry
        • Table Consumer Purchasing of Packaged Breakfast Pastries: By Type, 2004-2013 (percent)
      • Little Debbie and Hostess Most Popular Breakfast Pastries
        • Table Consumer Purchasing of Packaged Breakfast Pastries: By Brand, 2004-2013 (percent)
      • A Quarter of Adults Eat Packaged Muffins
        • Table Consumer Purchasing of Packaged Muffins: By Brand, 2004-2013 (percent)
      • Toaster Pastries Eaten by 40% of Consumers
        • Table Consumer Purchasing of Toaster Pastries: By Type and Brand 2004-2013 (percent)
      • Consumers Cutting Back on White Bread, Wheat Flour and Gluten
      • Consumers Look for Whole-Grain and Multi-Grain Baked Goods
      • Consumers Purchasing of Shelf-Stable vs. In-Store
  • The Market
    • Introduction
      • Scope of Report
      • Methodology
      • Product Category Definitions
      • Products Outside Market Scope
    • Market Size and Growth
      • Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods Market Sales at $4.9 Billion in 2012
        • Table Retail Dollar Sales of Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods, 2008-2012 (in millions)
      • Category Sales: Shelf-stable Products Dominate
        • Table Retail Dollar Sales of Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods: By Category, 2008-2012 (in millions)
      • Product Segment Sales
        • Table IRI-Tracked Sales of Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods: By Segment, 2008-2012 (dollar, unit and volume sales)
      • Sales by Retail Channel
      • Market Forecast
  • The Marketers
    • Market Leaders
      • Bimbo Controls 35% of Mass-Market Sales
        • Table IRI-Tracked Sales of Packaged Breakfast Baked Good Marketers, 2012-2013 (millions of dollars, percent)
        • Table IRI-Tracked Sales of Packaged Shelf-Stable Donut Marketers, 2012-2013 (millions of dollars, percent)
        • Table IRI-Tracked Sales of Packaged Shelf-Stable and Frozen Muffin Marketers, 2012-2013 (millions of dollars, percent)
        • Table IRI-Tracked Sales of Packaged Shelf-Stable and Refrigerated Pastry/Danish/Coffee Cake Marketers, 2012-2013 (millions of dollars, percent)
        • Table IRI-Tracked Sales of Packaged Shelf-Stable, Refrigerated and Frozen Bagel/Bialy Marketers, 2012-2013 (millions of dollars, percent)
        • Table IRI-Tracked Sales of Packaged Shelf-Stable and Refrigerated English Muffin Marketers, 2012-2013 (millions of dollars, percent)
        • Table IRI-Tracked Sales of Packaged Shelf-Stable and Frozen Toaster Pastry/Tart Marketers, 2012-2013 (millions of dollars, percent)
      • Leadership Requires Fewer Brands than in Packaged Breads
        • Table Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods Brands of Select Companies, 2013
      • Mergers, Acquisitions, Divestitures
    • Competitive Profiles
      • Bimbo Bakeries USA
        • Table Bimbo Bakeries Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods
      • Flowers Foods
        • Table Flowers Foods Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods
      • Kellogg Company
        • Table Kellogg Company Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods
      • McKee Foods Corporation
        • Table McKee Foods Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods
      • General Mills
        • Table General Mills Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods
      • Krispy Kreme Doughnut Corporation
        • Table Krispy Kreme Doughnut Corporation Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods
      • Pinnacle Foods
        • Table Pinnacle Foods Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods
      • James Skinner Baking Company
        • Table James Skinner Baking Company Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods
      • Bays Corporation
        • Table Bays Corporation Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods
  • Product, Retailing, and Marketing Trends
    • Product Trends
      • Health and Nutrition
      • New Tastes and Experiences
      • Convenience
    • Retailing Trends
      • Retailers Embrace Gluten-Free
      • Branding Packaged Products for In-Store Bakeries
      • Kwik Trip Keeps it Fresh
    • Marketing Trends
      • Udi's Gluten-Free Connects with Consumers
      • Co-Branding to Extend Awareness
      • Power of Facebook
  • The Consumer
    • Note on Data Sources
    • Consumers Overwhelmingly Prefer Fresh Bagels
      • Table Consumer Purchasing of Packaged Bagels: By Type, 2004-2013 (percent)
      • Thomas' and Lender's Consumer Favorites
        • Table Brands of Bagels Eaten Most Often, 2004-2013 (percent)
      • Demographics Vary by Bagel Type and Brand
        • Table Demographic Characteristics of Bagel Consumers: By Type and Brand, 2013 (index)
      • Thomas' Dominates English Muffins
        • Table Consumer Purchasing of English Muffins: By Brand, 2004-2013 (percent)
      • Demographics Vary by English Muffin Brand
        • Table Demographic Characteristics of English Muffin Consumers: By Brand, 2013 (index)
      • Donut Usage Declines
        • Table Consumer Purchasing of Packaged Donuts: By Brand 2004-2013 (percent)
      • Demographics Vary by Donut Brand
        • Table Demographic Characteristics of Donut Consumers: By Brand, 2013 (index)
      • Cinnamon Rolls Most Popular Breakfast Pastry
        • Table Consumer Purchasing of Packaged Breakfast Pastries: By Type, 2004-2013 (percent)
      • Demographics Vary by Breakfast Pastry Type
        • Table Demographic Characteristics of Breakfast Pastry Consumers: By Type 2013 (index)
      • Little Debbie and Hostess Most Popular Breakfast Pastries
        • Table Consumer Purchasing of Packaged Breakfast Pastries: By Brand, 2004-2013 (percent)
      • A Quarter of Adults Eat Packaged Muffins
        • Table Consumer Purchasing of Packaged Muffins: By Brand, 2004-2013 (percent)
      • Toaster Pastries Eaten by 40% of Consumers
        • Table Consumer Purchasing of Toaster Pastries: By Type and Brand 2004-2013 (percent)
      • Demographics Vary by Toaster Pastry Brand
        • Table Demographic Characteristics of Toaster Pastry Consumers: By Type and Brand, 2013 (index)
      • Over Half of Adults Watching Diet; Seek Less Fat, Sugar, Salt, More Fiber
        • Table Watching One's Diet: Reasons and Foods Bought, 2005-2013 (percent)
      • Consumers Want to Eat Healthier, but Also Indulge
        • Table Consumer Attitudes about Food: Agree a Lot, 2004-2013 (percent)
      • Consumers Cutting Back on White Bread, Wheat Flour and Gluten
      • Consumers Look for Whole-Grain and Multi-Grain Baked Goods
      • Consumers Buying Shelf-Stable Products Less, Products from In-Store Bakeries More
      • More Consumers Bought Shelf-Stable Breads

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