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Fresh Baked Goods in the U.S.


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U.S. consumers have been caught in an economic freefall over the past two years, but the crisis appears to be nearing an end. However, the significant changes in attitudes and behaviors brought about by these recessionary pressures persist, with consumers continuing to rethink what value means and monitor spending carefully. In this environment, the growing focus on nutrition as a means to wellness—coupled with renewed interest in eating at home and demand for “comfort food”—has spurred bakeries to provide healthy products that offer high-quality ingredients and a restaurant-quality experience at appealing prices.

These combined trends have resulted in steady, if modest, growth in sales of fresh baked goods over the past five years. Retail sales of fresh bread and sweet baked items topped $16 billion in 2009, up 4.2% from the previous year. And as bakeries grow ever more creative in meeting consumer demand for specific types of products and the economy improves, this rate of growth is likely to improve. Taking all market trends into account, Packaged Facts projects that the market will grow by 26% between 2009 and 2014, to reach $20.1 billion at retail.

A completely new report from Packaged Facts, Fresh Baked Goods in the U.S. offers a comprehensive look at the overriding trends in the market. The report examines baked goods that are prepared fresh at both in-store and stand-alone bakeries, using preparation methods such as made-from-scratch, mixes, par-baking (or pre-baking) and thaw-and-heat. It also analyzes trends in the key retail channels through which baked goods are sold—both stand-alone bakeries and in-store outlets—including traditional supermarkets, supercenters/mass merchandisers, natural food stores, and warehouse clubs. The report also examines activity at the foodservice level, where trends in baked goods often start, focusing on high-growth areas including bakery cafés.

A special feature is May/June 2010 custom Packaged Facts research on consumer attitudes and purchasing patterns. Specifically tailored for this report, the survey details consumer preferences for baked goods channels and items purchased, in addition to other psychographic indicators. Additional demographic analysis derives from data compiled by Experian Simmons, New York, NY, including indexing of consumers most or least likely to often eat different types of breads. The report also breaks out sales by type of bread or sweet baked good for numerous segments, details market growth drivers and projects future sales, identifies competitive opportunities including sustainability appeals, and tracks trends at in-store bakeries.


Market Insights: A Selection From The Report


Supermarkets and Bakeries Are Dominant Retail Venues

Baked goods are sold in an ever-broadening range of retail venues, including mainstream supermarkets and grocery stores, mass merchandisers and supercenters, warehouse clubs, natural food stores, and gourmet/specialty food stores (including specialty bakeries).  The products are also sold through a host of foodservice channels, including coffee shops, bakeries, delis and quick-service restaurants.  Packaged Facts estimates that supermarkets and grocery stores lead the market for fresh baked goods, accounting for 56% of total retail dollar sales in 2009. Supercenters and mass merchandisers account for only 9% of total fresh baked goods sales, but that number is likely to grow in 2010 as the impact of the recession lingers.  [Figure 1-1]

Warehouse Stores

At warehouse stores, “bigger” is better and “more” is the order of the day. With 22% of in-store bakery customers shopping at warehouse clubs, according to Packaged Facts custom research, warehouse clubs are a definite force in the in-store bakery market. More and more consumers have flocked to the channel as a result of the recession, and the popularity of Sam’s Club, Costco and B.J.’s Wholesale Club have grown dramatically.  With a focus on bulk purchases, the in-store bakeries of these stores are known for their size and affordable fare. Sam’s Club, for example, can charge half the price of other in-store and independent bakeries for traditional sheet cakes.  And consumers looking to serve 100 people at a birthday gathering will not find lower prices than those offered by warehouse clubs.  Additionally, 24-packs of cookies, doughnuts and other bakery items cover large table displays throughout the bakery.

On the other hand, the product selections usually tend...

Healthier Fare

It comes as no surprise that “good-for-you foods” was among the top five food trends for 2010 at the 35th Winter Fancy Food Show in San Francisco, as reported by the website specialtyfoods.com (January 19, 2010). The panel of experts who ranked the top food trends were merely confirming a long-growing trend toward healthier eating in the U.S.  One of the ways consumers are “eating healthy” is by pursuing foods and beverages with a higher nutritional value. In Packaged Facts’ May/June 2010 consumer survey, which is based on a national sample of 1,881 U.S. adults, 35% of the individuals surveyed agreed with the statement, “I frequently use nutritionally fortified food and beverage products,” with 8% indicating strong agreement. Additionally, 51% agreed with the statement, “I love eating healthy” and 29% agreed that “I eat very healthy.”  [Table 4-1]


Consumer Interest in Health, Convenience and Localism Fuel $16 Billion U.S. Market for Fresh Baked Goods

New York, July 29, 2010Consumer interest in healthy eating, artisan foods and “localism” countered recessionary pressures and helped fuel the fresh baked goods market to grow 4% in 2009 to reach $16 billion, according to Fresh Baked Goods in the U.S. by market research publisher Packaged Facts.  

Total fresh baked goods sales experienced slow but steady growth in the 2%-4% range throughout the 2005-2009 period, with the exception of 2008 when the market saw almost 6% growth. Fresh baked goods sales from in-store bakeries including those of warehouse clubs also experienced steady growth, in the 2%-5% range, reaching $11 billion in 2010 and comprising nearly three-quarters of the total retail market. 

Packaged Facts projects that the market for fresh bakes goods will exceed $20 billion by 2014.

Packaged Facts divides the fresh baked goods market into two major product classifications: sweet baked goods and breads. The sweet baked goods classification encompasses cakes, cupcakes, cookies, pies, brownies and other baked dessert products. The breads classification encompasses bread (including sliced and unsliced loaves), rolls, pitas and croissants. This report also discusses breakfast baked goods (which overlap both classifications), including doughnuts, muffins, breakfast breads, bagels/bialys and sweet rolls.

“Although fresh baked goods are produced and sold in a wide variety of retail channels, certain overriding trends have affected how these products are marketed across most channels,” says Don Montuori, publisher of Packaged Facts. “For example, consumer demand for specific kinds of products—such as those that fill specific dietary needs or budgetary concerns—has led retailers to adapt in terms of both product offerings and marketing strategies. In the fresh baked goods market, those bakeries that have managed to succeed in this challenging environment have done so by evaluating and quickly responding to these shifts in consumer demand with products that fulfill a variety of consumer needs and wants.”

A new report from Packaged Facts, Fresh Baked Goods in the U.S. offers a comprehensive look at the overriding trends in the market. The report examines baked goods that are prepared fresh at both in-store and stand-alone bakeries, using preparation methods such as made-from-scratch, mixes, par-baking (or pre-baking) and thaw-and-heat. It also analyzes trends in the key retail channels through which baked goods are sold—both stand-alone bakeries and in-store outlets—including traditional supermarkets, supercenters/mass merchandisers, natural food stores, and warehouse clubs. Additionally, the report examines activity at the foodservice level, where trends in baked goods often start, focusing on high-growth areas including bakery cafés. For

About Packaged Facts - Packaged Facts, a division of MarketResearch.com, publishes market intelligence on a wide range of consumer market topics, including consumer goods and retailing, foods and beverages, demographics, pet products and services, and financial products.  Packaged Facts also offers a full range of custom research services. 

  • Executive Summary
    • Introduction
      • Scope of Report
      • Report Methodology
    • Market Size and Growth
      • Sales Continue to Increase Despite Recession
      • Supermarkets and Bakeries Are Dominant Retail Venues
      • Sweet Baked Goods Category Leads in Market Share
      • Types of Fresh Sweet Baked Goods Purchased at Bakeries
    • Retail Trends
      • Consumers Frequent In-Store Bakeries
      • Labor Costs, Profits Top Concerns in Bakery Departments
      • Supermarkets
      • Mass Merchandisers
      • Natural Food Stores
      • Warehouse Stores
    • Baking & Marketing Trends
      • Consumer Spending Habits Alter Marketing Landscape
      • Healthier Fare
      • Bite-Sized Treats Offer Low-Guilt Option
      • Whole Grains for Health
      • Ancient Grains Offer Variety and Gluten-Free Options
      • Sugar-Free Options Still Popular
      • Fortified Baked Goods Lose Steam
      • Natural and Organic Products
      • Environmentally Friendly Baking and "Going Local"
      • Affordable Luxuries
      • Artisan and Small-Batch Goods
      • Nostalgic Foods/Comfort Foods
      • Flavor Adventure
    • Foodservice Trends
      • Bakery Cafés Grow in Popularity
      • Quick-Service Restaurants Add Artisan Appeal
    • Consumer Trends
      • Whole Grain Breads Have the Momentum
      • Specialty Ethnic/International Breads Continue to Gain in Popularity
      • Packaged Breakfast Pastries Losing Luster
  • Market Trends - Highlights
  • Market Trends
    • Introduction
      • Scope of Report
      • Excluded Products
      • Report Methodology
    • Market Size and Growth
      • Sales Continue to Increase Despite Recession
        • Table Total U.S. Retail Sales of Fresh Baked Goods, 2005-2009 (in millions of dollars)
        • Table In-Store Service Bakery Annual Sales, 2000-2010 (in billions of dollars)
        • Table SymphonyIRI-Tracked Sales of Packaged Baked Goods, 2008 vs. 2009 (in millions of dollars)
    • Market Composition
      • Supermarkets and Bakeries Are Dominant Retail Venues
      • Sweet Baked Goods Category Leads in Market Share
      • Packaged Products Break Out Differently
        • Table Share of SymphonyIRI-Tracked Sales of Packaged Baked Goods by Category and Segment, 2008 vs. 2009 (percent)
      • Types of Fresh Sweet Baked Goods Purchased at Bakeries
        • Table Types of Fresh Sweet Baked Goods Purchased at Bakeries, May/June 2010 (percent)
      • Cakes and Cupcakes
      • Retailer Perspective: United Supermarkets
      • Cookies
      • Pies
      • Baker's Perspective: Rocky Mountain Pies
      • Other Desserts
      • Breads
        • Table Percentage of Consumers Purchasing Fresh Baked Bread by Type: May/June 2010
      • Artisan Breads
      • Rolls
      • Doughnuts
      • Sweet Goods
      • Muffins
      • Bagels
    • Market Outlook
      • Economy Slowly Improving
        • Table Economy-Influenced Spending by U.S. Consumers: Less in General vs. Less on Groceries, May/June 2010 (percent)
        • Table Agreement with Statement, "Compared to 3 Months Ago, How Much Are You Doing Any of the Following Right Now?", May/June 2010 (percent)
      • Fresh Baked Goods: An Affordable Luxury
      • Eat-At-Home Movement Benefits Fresh Baked Goods Market
      • Eating Healthy
        • Table Percentage of In-Store Bakery Operators Reporting Dietary Claims, 2008 vs. 2010 (percent)
        • Table Percentage of In-Store Bakery Operators Reporting Sales Gains on Dietary Claims, 2008 vs. 2010 (percent)
      • Heart-Healthy Grains
      • Gluten-Free and Other Allergy Concerns
      • Portion Control and Convenience
      • Natural and Organic
      • "Clean Label" Foods
      • Baking-Naturally
      • Environmental Concerns
      • Impact of Healthcare Reform
      • Food and Beverage Industry Reacts
      • Food Safety Legislation
      • Baked Goods Sales Through 2014
        • Table Projected U.S. Sales of Baked Goods Through Retail Channels, 2009-2014 (in millions of dollars)
  • Retail Trends - Highlights
  • Retail Trends
    • Consumers Frequent In-Store Bakeries
      • Table In-Store Service Bakery Percent of Total Store Sales, 2000-2010 (percent)
      • Table Number of In-Store Service Bakeries 2000-2010
    • Preparation Methods
      • Table How In-Store Service Bakeries Prepare Products, 2008 vs. 2010 (percent)
    • Labor Costs, Profits Top Concerns in Bakery Departments
      • Table Problems Facing Bakery Departments, 2009 vs. 2010
    • Supermarkets
    • Mass Merchandisers
    • Natural Food Stores
    • Warehouse Stores
    • Wholesale and Retail Bakeries
      • Wholesalers Ramp Up Production
      • Retail Bakeries Expand Nationwide, Internationally
    • Bakery Perspective: Tom Cat Bakery
  • Baking & Marketing Trends - Highlights
  • Baking & Marketing Trends
    • Consumer Spending Habits Alter Marketing Landscape
    • Healthier Fare
      • Table "I Frequently Use Nutritionally Fortified Food and Beverage Products," May/June 2010 (percent)
    • Bite-Sized Treats Offer Low-Guilt Option
    • Whole Grains for Health
      • Table Food Types People Eat to Ensure That Their Diet Is Healthy, 2010 (percent)
    • Ancient Grains Offer Variety and Gluten-Free Options
    • Retailer Perspective: Whole Foods
    • Sugar-Free Options Still Popular
    • Olive Oil as Ingredient
    • Fortified Baked Goods Lose Steam
    • Natural and Organic Products
      • Table Purchasing of Natural/Organic Food Products by Type, July 2009-March 2010 (percent of U.S. households)
    • Environmentally Friendly Baking and "Going Local"
    • Affordable Luxuries
      • Table Consumer Purchasing Habits: Gourmet Products, May/June 2010 (percent)
    • Artisan and Small-Batch Goods
    • Nostalgic Foods/Comfort Foods
      • Whoopie Pies
      • Caramelized Flavors
    • Flavor Adventure
      • Retailer Profile: Sucré
      • Bacon…and Cupcakes?
  • Foodservice Trends - Highlights
  • Foodservice Trends
    • Bakery Cafés Grow in Popularity
      • Table Top 20 Largest Foodservice Bakery Operations by Number of Outlets, 2009 (in millions of dollars)
      • Table Household Usage Rates for Leading Doughnut and Bakery Chains, 2009/10 (percent and number in millions of U.S. households)
    • Smaller Foodservice Bakery Cafés Find Success
    • Panera Bread Co.
      • Table Demographic Patterns for Frequent Users of Panera Bread, 2009/10 (percent and index of U.S. adults)
      • Table Psychographic Patterns for Frequent Users of Panera Bread, 2009/10 (percent and index of U.S. adults)
    • Coffeehouses Increase Profits with Baked Goods
    • Quick-Service Restaurants Add Artisan Appeal
  • Consumer Trends - Highlights
  • Consumer Trends
    • Note on Experian Simmons Survey Data
    • Whole Grain Breads Have the Momentum
      • Table Household Usage Rates by Type of Bread: Whole Wheat vs. White, 2003, 2005, 2007 and 2009 (percent of U.S. households)
      • Table Household Usage Base by Type of Bread: Whole Wheat vs. White, 2003, 2005, 2007 and 2009 (millions of U.S. households)
      • Table Household Penetration Rates by Types of Bread Used and Used Most Often: Whole Grain Breads vs. White Breads, 2005 vs. 2009 (percent of U.S. households)
    • Remix Rather Than Revolution in Bread Preferences
      • Table Household Usage Rates By Types of Bread Used, Used Most Often, and Also Used: 2005 vs. 2009 (percent of U.S. households)
    • Whole Grain vs. White Bread Psychographics
      • Table Psychographic Patterns by Types of Bread Used Most Often: Whole Grain Breads vs. White Breads, 2009 (percent and index)
    • Psychographics for Individual Types of Bread
      • Table Types of Bread Used Most Often by Those Who Agree a Lot with Statement, "I Work at Eating a Well-Balanced Diet," 2009 (percent and index)
      • Table Types of Bread Used Most Often by Those Who Agree a Lot with Statement, "I Try to Include Plenty of Fiber in My Diet," 2009 (percent and index)
      • Table Types of Bread Used Most Often by Those Who Agree a Lot with Statement, "Usually Only Snack on Healthy Foods," 2009 (percent and index)
      • Table Types of Bread Used Most Often by Those Who Agree a Lot with Statement, "When I Shop for Foods, I Look for Organic/Natural Products," 2009 (percent and index)
      • Table Types of Bread Used Most Often by Those Who Agree a Lot with Statement, "I Try to Eat Gourmet Food Whenever I Can," 2009 (percent and index)
      • Table Types of Bread Used Most Often by Those Who Agree a Lot with Statement, "I Look for the Freshest Ingredients When I Cook," 2009 (percent and index)
      • Table Types of Bread Used Most Often by Those Who Agree a Lot with Statement, "Don't Have Time to Prepare or Eat Healthy Meals," 2009 (percent and index)
    • Demographics for Individual Types of Bread
      • Table Purchasing Indices by Types of Bread Used Most Often: By Gender, 2009 (U.S. households)
      • Table Purchasing Indices by Types of Bread Used Most Often: By Adult Age Bracket, 2009 (U.S. households)
      • Table Purchasing Indices by Types of Bread Used Most Often: By Race/Ethnicity, 2009 (U.S. households)
      • Table Purchasing Indices by Types of Bread Used Most Often: By Geographic Region, 2009 (U.S. households)
      • Table Purchasing Indices by Types of Bread Used Most Often: By Household Income Bracket, 2009 (U.S. households)
    • Specialty Ethnic/International Breads Continue to Gain in Popularity
      • Table Household Usage Rates for Selected Specialty Breads, 2003-2009 (percent of U.S. households)
      • Table Household Usage Base by Type of Bread: Whole Wheat vs. White, 2003-2009 (millions of U.S. households)
    • Fresh Bagels Gain at Frozen's Expense
      • Table Household Usage Rates for Bagels: Fresh vs. Frozen, 2003-2009 (millions of U.S. households)
    • Fresh vs. Frozen Bagel Psychographics
      • Table Psychographic Patterns for Use of Bagels: Fresh vs. Frozen, 2009 (percent and index)
    • Demographics for Fresh vs. Frozen Bagels
      • Table Purchasing Indices for Fresh vs. Frozen Bagels: By Selected Demographic Traits, 2009 (U.S. households)
    • Packaged Breakfast Pastries Losing Luster
      • Table Household Usage Rates for Selected Packaged Breakfast Pastries, 2003-2009 (percent of U.S. households)

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