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Foodservice Breakfast Trends in the U.S., 2nd Edition


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Foodservice Breakfast Trends in the U.S., 2nd Edition

The breakfast daypart continues to help drive sales at full-service restaurants and limited-service eating places. In Foodservice Breakfast Trends in the U.S., 2nd Edition, Packaged Facts estimates restaurant breakfast sales will reach $47.4 billion in 2013, up 5% from 2012. We forecast sales to rise by 5.6% in 2014 and 5.1% in 2015.

At limited-service restaurants, growth is being driven by player entrants; menu item innovation hitting healthfulness, indulgence, and quality notes; and coffee, tea and juice platform innovation. On the heels of rising guest usage during 2011-2013, brands such as Dunkin Donuts, Starbucks, Panera Bread, and Chik-fil-A are riding the trend. Between 2009-2013 breakfast usage growth has been driven by adults age 65 and older, Asian consumers, and the part-time employed. Leveraging morning visits among coffee drinkers, the segment is also benefiting from workforce expansion and a growing pool of employed consumers.

Meanwhile, full-service breakfast usage trends suggest that a rebound is taking place. Breakfast daypart usage penetration has risen 26% from 2009 to 2013, a higher rate of growth than shown for other dayparts. While many family restaurant chains continue to face guest traffic challenges, brand-specific trends hold promise. And with more and more family restaurants experimenting with take out and portable menu options, the segment is poised to better compete with the limited-service competition.

Foodservice Breakfast Trends in the U.S., 2nd Edition can assist industry participants in understanding industry and consumer trends shaping this increasingly competitive environment, focusing on limited-service and family restaurant chains.

Key content includes:

  • Trended guest traffic analysis for the foodservice breakfast daypart, including 2005-2013 limited-service and full-service restaurant usage trends; 2013 restaurant breakfast usage, segmented into eight foodservice channels; 2013 restaurant guest traffic volume and share estimates, by daypart; and 2013 foodservice breakfast traffic segmented by foodservice channel and split into weekday versus weekend and into on-premises, in-store pick up and drive thru.
  • Assessment of breakfast restaurant menu trends over time, focusing on menu item penetration by restaurant segment, including analysis of menu terms relating to breakfast entrees, top proteins, and beverages. Menu item trend data is provided courtesy of Datassential, a leading food research company. Analysis is supported by a wealth of examples.
  • Via proprietary consumer survey analysis, assessment of the degree to which consumers would be motivated to eat breakfast outside of their homes more often.
  • A market size and forecast for the U.S. restaurant breakfast daypart, segmented by limited-service eating places and full-service restaurants. We also trend 2007-2012 consumer restaurant expenditures, exploring the relationship between household growth and restaurant spending by demographic and by limited-service and full-service segment, as well as daypart and breakfast spending by demographic.
The report also provides analysis of leading restaurant brands that focus on the breakfast daypart, spanning the snack and beverage, quick-service, fast casual and family restaurant segments. For each brand, we assess competitive differentiation; growth strategy; menu development and trending; consumer food lifestyle consumer segmentation analysis; guest traffic trending, by demographic; and sales performance and outlook. Analysis is tailored narrowly to the breakfast daypart:
  • Snack and beverage restaurants: Dunkin’ Donuts, Jamba Juice, Starbucks and Tim Hortons
  • Quick-service restaurants: Burger King, Chick-fil-A, McDonald’s
  • Fast casual restaurants: Einstein Noah Restaurant Group and Panera Bread
  • Family restaurants: Bob Evans Restaurants, Denny’s and IHOP


  • Executive Summary
    • INTRODUCTION
    • Report Scope
    • Restaurant breakfast restaurant sales analysis
      • Market size and forecast
      • 2007-2012 consumer restaurant expenditure trends: placing breakfast within context
      • Consumer restaurant daypart expenditure trends
      • Consumer restaurant breakfast expenditure trends
    • Breakfast daypart guest traffic trends
      • Breakfast helps drive 2005-2013 restaurant usage trends
      • 2013 restaurant breakfast usage: eight-channel foodservice analysis
      • Restaurant guest traffic volume and share analysis, by daypart
      • Weekday versus weekend foodservice breakfast traffic
      • On-premises versus off-premises foodservice breakfast traffic
    • Restaurant breakfast menu trends
      • Foodservice breakfast: authenticity claims
      • Foodservice breakfast: breakfast sandwich proteins
      • Coffee trends
      • Tea trends
      • Juice trends
      • Beyond restaurants
    • Eating breakfast away from home: motivators
      • Lower cost and healthier options
    • Restaurant breakfast brand analysis: snack & beverage restaurants
      • Dunkin' Donuts
      • Jamba Juice
      • Starbucks
      • Tim Hortons
    • Restaurant breakfast brand analysis: quick-service restaurants
      • Burger King
      • Chick-fil-A
      • McDonald's
    • Restaurant breakfast brand analysis: fast casual restaurants
      • Einstein Noah Restaurant Group
      • Panera Bread
    • Restaurant breakfast brand analysis: family restaurants
      • Bob Evans Restaurants
      • Denny's
      • IHOP
  • Share of Stomach: Restaurant Breakfast Sales Analysis
    • INTRODUCTION
    • Summary analysis
      • Market size and forecast
      • 2007-2012 consumer restaurant expenditure trends: placing breakfast within context
      • Consumer restaurant daypart expenditure trends
      • Consumer restaurant breakfast expenditure trends
    • Market size and forecast
      • Limited-service sales al almost double those at full-service restaurants
      • Breakfast daypart share by segment
    • Consumer restaurant spending trends by daypart
    • Placing restaurant breakfast in context
      • Household incomes get a boost
      • Food away from home spending accelerates, but lags income growth
        • Table Per Capita Spend: Food, Food at Home & Away From Home, Limited- & Full-Service Restaurants, 2007 vs. 2012
      • 2012 per capita restaurant spending reaches 2008 levels
        • Table Per Capita Consumer Restaurant Expenditures, by Daypart, 2007-2012
      • Restaurant daypart spending trends, by HH income
        • Table Per Capita Restaurant Spending, by Daypart, HH Income, 2007 vs. 2012
      • Household restaurant expenditures, by demographic
        • Table Per Household Spending on Limited-Service and Full-Service Breakfast/Brunch, by Demographic, 2012
      • Total limited-service vs. full-service restaurant breakfast expenditures, by demographic
        • Table Total Consumer Spending on Limited-Service and Full-Service Breakfast/Brunch, by Demographic, 2012
    • 2007-2012 household growth and restaurant spending trends
      • Food spending outstrips household and income growth
      • But restaurant spending lags food at home spending growth
      • Spending trends influenced by household formation trends, narrowing of middle class
      • More higher-income households, but per capita restaurant spending stagnates
        • Table Per Capita Spending on Food, Food at Home vs. Away From Home, &Limited-Service vs. Full-Service Restaurants, by HH Income, 2007 vs. 2012
      • Strong black, Asian and Hispanic household growth
      • Black and Asian consumers grow restaurant spend; declines noted for Hispanics
      • Distinctions by restaurant segment
        • Table Per Capita Spending on Food, Food at Home vs. Away From Home, &Limited-Service vs. Full-Service Restaurants, by Race/Ethnicity, 2007 vs. 2012
    • Restaurant daypart spend trends
      • HH income analysis
        • Table Per Capita Restaurant Daypart Spending, by HH Income, 2007 vs. 2012
      • Race/ethnicity analysis
        • Table Per Capita Restaurant Daypart Spending, Race/Ethnicity, 2007 vs. 2012
    • Limited-service and full-service segment breakfast spend trends
      • HH income analysis
        • Table Per Capita Spending on Limited-Service and Full-Service Breakfast/Brunch, by HH Income, 2007 vs. 2012
      • Race/ethnicity analysis
        • Table Per Capita Spending on Limited-Service and Full-Service Breakfast/Brunch, by Race/Ethnicity, 2007 vs. 2012
  • Breakfast Daypart Guest Traffic Trends
    • INTRODUCTION
    • Summary analysis
      • Breakfast helps drive 2005-2013 restaurant usage trends
      • 2013 restaurant breakfast usage: eight-channel foodservice analysis
      • Restaurant guest traffic volume and share analysis, by daypart
      • Weekday versus weekend foodservice breakfast traffic
      • On-premises versus off-premises foodservice breakfast traffic
    • 2005-2013 restaurant breakfast usage trends
      • 2009-2013 overall restaurant breakfast usage penetration growth outstrips other dayparts
      • 2005-2013 trends suggests increasing importance of limited-service restaurant breakfast
      • 2005-2013 limited-service restaurant usage growth and usage share trends, by demographic
        • Table Limited-Service Restaurant Usage/Usage Share, by Demographic, 2005-2013, 2005-2009 & 2009-2013
      • 2009-2013 full-service restaurant breakfast trends leading segment out of recession
      • 2005-2013 full-service restaurant usage growth and usage share trends, by demographic
        • Table Full-Service Restaurant Usage/Usage Share, by Demographic, 2005-2013, 2005-2009 & 2009-2013
    • Current restaurant breakfast usage
      • Foodservice breakfast channel analysis: eight-segment overview
      • Foodservice breakfast channel analysis, by age
        • Table Breakfast Usage/Usage Share, by Restaurant & Food Retail Channel, &Cafeteria, by Age, 2013
      • Foodservice breakfast channel analysis, by HH income
        • Table Breakfast Usage/Usage Share, by Foodservice Channel, &Cafeteria, by HH Income, 2013
      • Foodservice breakfast channel analysis, by employment status
        • Table Breakfast Usage/Usage Share, by Foodservice Channel, &Cafeteria, by Employment Status, 2013
      • Foodservice segment analysis, by urban, suburban, rural work/residence location
        • Table Breakfast Usage/Usage Share, by Foodservice Channel, by Place of Work & Residence, 2013
    • Guest traffic volume and share analysis
      • QSR guest traffic volume: daypart and chain/independent status
        • Table Quick-Service Restaurant Guest Traffic Volume Comparisons by Daypart & Chain Status, by Demographic, 2013
      • Snack & beverage guest traffic volume: daypart and chain/independent status
      • Family restaurant guest traffic volume: daypart and chain/independent status
        • Table Family Restaurant Guest Traffic Volume Comparisons by Daypart and Chain Status, by Demographic, 2013
      • Casual restaurant guest traffic volume: daypart and chain/independent status
    • Weekday vs. weekend visits; eaten on-premises vs. off-premises
      • Weekdays account for 70% of foodservice breakfast traffic
      • Significant off-premises foodservice breakfast share
        • Table Weekday vs. Weekend Breakfast & On-Premises vs. Takeout & Drive-Thru Breakfast, By Type of Chain, Independent Restaurant, and Convenience Store, 2013
      • Weekday vs. weekend visits: demographic analysis
        • Table Weekday vs. Weekend Breakfast: QSR Chains & Family/Buffet Chains, by Demographic, 2013
      • Eaten on-premises vs. off-premises: demographic analysis
        • Table On-Premises vs. Takeout & Drive-Thru Breakfast: QSR Chains & Family/Buffet Chains, by Demographic, 2013
  • Breakfast Menu Item Ordering Analysis
    • INTRODUCTION
      • Our Survey
    • Top breakfast menu items ordered
      • Food menu items
      • Beverage menu items
    • Demographic analysis
      • Table Food and Beverage Items Ordered During Last Breakfast Visit, 2013
      • Table Food and Beverage Items Ordered During Last Breakfast Visit, by Gender, 2013
      • Table Food and Beverage Items Ordered During Last Breakfast Visit, by HH Income, 2013
      • Table Food and Beverage Items Ordered During Last Breakfast Visit, by Region, 2013
      • Table Food and Beverage Items Ordered During Last Breakfast Visit, by Foodservice Outlet Type, 2013
      • Table Food and Beverage Items Ordered During Last Breakfast Visit, Purchase/Eaten, 2013
  • Breakfast Menu Trends
    • INTRODUCTION\
    • Summary analysis
      • Foodservice breakfast: authenticity claims
      • Foodservice breakfast: breakfast sandwich proteins
      • Coffee trends
      • Tea trends
      • Juice trends
      • Beyond restaurants
    • Foodservice breakfast: authenticity claims
      • More family restaurants using the term original
        • Table Fresh & Authentic Menu Terms: Penetration & Incidence, Family/Midscale Restaurants, 2009 vs. 2013
    • On the breakfast menu
    • Foodservice breakfast: breakfast sandwich proteins
      • Bacon and sausage still rule the roost
        • Table Breakfast Sandwich Protein Menu Penetration and Growth, by Restaurant Segment, 2009 vs. 2013
      • Pork and turkey provide alternatives
    • Foodservice breakfast beverages
      • What's foodservice breakfast without a beverage?
        • Table Beverage Items Ordered During Last Breakfast Visit, by Foodservice Outlet Type, 2013
    • Tea, coffee and juice breakfast opportunity
      • Table Nonalcoholic Beverage Penetration & Menu Item Share: Quick-Service & Family Restaurant Chains, 2013
      • Coffee chugs along
        • Table Coffee Drinking by Daypart, 2011
        • Table Daily Coffee Drinkers: Overall vs. Foodservice Breakfast, 2013
        • Table Coffee Procurement in Past 7 Days, by Method/Location, 2011
      • Tea flexing more breakfast muscle
        • Table Teas Purchased/Ordered in Last 12 months, 2011
        • Table Teas Ordered from Restaurants in Last 12 months, by Flavor/Variety, 2011
        • Table Brewed Tea, Iced Tea and Coffee and Coffee Drink Caffeine Levels, by Type
      • Juice: ready for reinvention?
        • Table Branded Orange Juice, Selected Restaurant Brands, 2013
        • Table Jamba Juice: Fresh Squeezed Juices, New Freshly Squeezed Juice Blends & Juice Blends, 2013
      • Convenience store beverage innovation
        • Table Wawa New Beverage Items, 2013
  • Eating Breakfast Away from Home: Motivators
    • INTRODUCTION
      • Analysis
      • Lower cost and healthier options
        • Table Eating Breakfast Away from Home Motivators, 2013
  • Brand Analysis: Snack & Beverage Restaurants
    • INTRODUCTION
    • Dunkin' Donuts
      • Competitive differentiation and growth strategy
      • On the menu
        • Table Dunkin' Donuts Food and Beverage Menu Share, by Menu Item Type, 2013
      • Menu expansion
      • Breakfast LTOs
    • Breakfast strategy: Balancing indulgence and health
    • Breakfast guest purchases skew heavily to donuts and coffee
      • Table Food and Beverage Items Ordered During Last Dunkin' Donuts Breakfast Visit, 2013
    • Guest traffic trend analysis
    • Sales performance and outlook
      • 2012
      • 2013
        • Table Dunkin' Donuts Same-Store Sales and Systemwide Sales Trends, 2008-2013
    • Jamba Juice
      • Competitive differentiation and growth strategy
      • Kids in focus
    • On the menu
      • Table Jamba Juice Food and Beverage Menu Share, by Menu Item Type, 2013
      • Breakfast
      • Growth strategy: Innovation of retail format can capture on-the-go breakfast consumer
    • Breakfast strategy: Healthy meals
      • Fresh juice platform offers breakfast opportunity
    • Guest traffic trend analysis
    • Sales performance and outlook
      • Table Jamba Juice Same-Store Sales & Location Trends, 2010-2012
    • Starbucks
    • Competitive differentiation and growth strategy
      • The juice connection
      • Menu trends: Addressing the food challenge
    • Breakfast strategy: Focus on "other" breakfast beverage opportunities
      • Table Starbucks Food and Beverage Menu Share, by Menu Item Type, 2013
    • Breakfast guest purchases skew heavily to donuts and coffee
      • Table Food and Beverage Items Ordered During Last Starbucks Breakfast Visit, 2013
    • Guest traffic trend analysis
    • Sales performance and outlook
      • Outlook
        • Table Starbucks Revenue, Same-Store Sales, Sales Mix, &Location Trends, 2008-2012
    • Tim Hortons
    • Competitive differentiation and growth strategy
    • Breakfast strategy: Brand recognition and broader menu
      • Table Tim Hortons Food and Beverage Menu Share, by Menu Item Type, 2013
      • Breakfast LTOs
    • Sales performance
  • Brand Analysis: Quick-Service Restaurants
    • INTRODUCTION
    • Burger King
      • Competitive differentiation and growth strategy
      • Breakfast strategy: Expand coffee platform
        • Table Burger King Food and Beverage Menu Share, by Menu Item Type, 2013
      • Breakfast LTOs
    • Guest traffic trend analysis
    • Sales performance and outlook
      • Table Burger King Sales Performance, 2010-2013
    • Chick-fil-A
      • Competitive differentiation and growth strategy
      • Religious affiliation
    • Breakfast strategy: Highlight signature chicken in breakfast form
      • Table Chick-fil-A Food and Beverage Menu Share, by Menu Item Type, 2013
    • Guest traffic trend analysis
    • Sales performance
    • McDonald's
      • Competitive differentiation and growth strategy
      • McCafé platform
      • Growth strategy: Modernize the menu and consumer experience
    • Breakfast strategy: A variety of hot breakfast sandwiches
      • Table McDonald's Food and Beverage Menu Share, by Menu Item Type, 2013
      • Table Food and Beverage Items Ordered During Last McDonald's Breakfast Visit, 2013
      • The BFY breakfast
    • Guest traffic analysis
    • Sales performance and outlook
      • Table McDonald's Global Company-Operated & Franchise Restaurant Count, Sales & Revenue, 2008-2013
  • Restaurant Breakfast Brand Analysis: Fast Casual Restaurants
    • INTRODUCTION
    • Einstein Bros. Bagels/ Einstein Noah Restaurant Group
      • Competitive differentiation and growth strategy
      • On the menu
      • Breakfast is two-thirds of the pie
        • Table Top 10 Einstein Bros. Beverage Menu Items, by % of Dishes Featuring, 2013
      • Healthfulness drives menu innovation
        • Table Einstein Bros. Selected Breakfast Bundles and Breakfast LTOs, 2013
    • Guest traffic analysis
      • Table Einstein Bros.: Consumer Usage Penetration and Usage Share, by Demographic, 2013
    • Sales performance
      • Sales growth at the expense of guest traffic declines
        • Table Einstein Noah Restaurant Group Restaurant Sales, Average Unit Volume & Units by Ownership Type, Same-Store Sales; and (2012) Sales & Restaurants by Brand, 2010-2012
    • Panera Bread
    • Competitive differentiation and growth strategy
    • On the menu
      • Table Top 10 Panera Bread Food Menu Items, by % of Dishes Featuring, 2013
      • Table Top 10 Panera Bread Beverage Menu Items, by % of Dishes Featuring, 2013
    • Menu innovation
      • On the "hidden menu"
        • Table Panera Bread Selected "Hidden" Breakfast Items and Breakfast LTOs, 2012-2013
    • Guest traffic trend analysis
      • Enviable trending
        • Table Panera Bread: Consumer Usage Penetration and Usage Share, by Demographic, 2011 vs. 2013
      • Variety on a Budget and True Foodies turn the doors with greatest frequency
    • Sales performance
      • A strong, consistent growth story
        • Table Panera Bread Restaurant Sales, Same-Store Sales w/ Components & Units, 2008-2012
  • Restaurant Breakfast Brand Analysis: Family Restaurants
    • INTRODUCTION
    • Bob Evans
    • Competitive differentiation and growth strategy
      • Breakfast a large slice of the pie
      • Bridging weekdays and weekends
        • Table Bob Evans Restaurants Sales by Daypart & Time of Week, Guest Check by Daypart, 2010 vs. 2013
    • Growth strategy: Menu innovation
      • Beverage innovation
        • Table Top 10 Bob Evans Menu Item Types, by % of Dishes Featuring, 2013
      • Value messaging and new items
      • Bundling success
      • And a health twist
    • Growth strategy: Farm Fresh Refresh remodel
      • Building off-premise opportunity
    • Guest traffic trend analysis
      • Table Bob Evans Restaurants: Consumer Usage Penetration and Usage Share, by Demographic, 2009 vs. 2013
    • Sales performance
      • Longer-term trends suggest brand is not over the hump
      • But positive near-term trends bode well
        • Table Bob Evans Restaurants Net Sales, Same-Store Sales, Units & Menu Pricing, 2009-2013
    • Denny's
    • Competitive differentiation and growth strategy
    • Menu innovation
      • LTO evolution
        • Table Denny's Selected New Breakfast Items and Breakfast LTOs, 2012-2013
      • Balanced by $2 $4 $6 $8 Value Menu
        • Table Denny's $2 $4 $6 $8 Value Menu: Breakfast Meals: 2013
      • Higher-quality coffee
      • Consumers choose starch-based entrees, giving egg-centric menu items a run for their money
        • Table Food and Beverage Items Ordered During Last Denny's Breakfast Visit, 2013
    • Guest traffic trend analysis
      • Our analysis suggests silver lining in Denny's guest count declines
      • Millennials, Baby Boomers and Hispanics
        • Table Denny's: Consumer Usage Penetration and Usage Share, by Demographic, 2009 vs. 2013
    • Sales performance
      • Longer-term trends suggest guest count challenges
      • Near-term trends mixed
        • Table Denny's Restaurant Sales, Same-Store Sales, Guest Check & Count, 2009-2013
    • IHOP
    • Menu development and innovation
      • Breakfast menu items are front and center
      • A minority of other items
        • Table Top 10 IHOP Menu Item Types, by % of Dishes Featuring, 2013
      • Maintaining value proposition
      • Griddle Melts level playing field
      • LTOs keep Simple & Fit menu fresh
        • Table IHOP Selected New Items and LTOs, 2012-2013
      • Menu redesign
    • Guest item ordering & traffic trend analysis
      • Guests more likely to order egg-based entrees than starch-based entrees
        • Table Food and Beverage Items Ordered During Last IHOP Breakfast Visit, 2013
      • Guest traffic trend analysis
        • Table IHOP Restaurants: Consumer Usage Penetration and Usage Share, by Demographic, 2009 vs. 2013
    • Sales performance
      • Table IHOP Restaurant Sales, Same-Store Sales & Units, by Restaurant Ownership Class, 2010-2012
  • Appendix
    • Methodology
      • Consumer survey methodology
    • Market size and forecast
    • Consumer segmentation groups
      • Food Lifestyle
    • Terms and definitions
      • Restaurant segmentation
      • Limited-service restaurant definitions
      • Full-service restaurant definitions
      • Other definitions

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