Weekly Economic Briefings - Eurozone Weekly Economic Briefing - Eurozone
The euro area’s period of surprisingly rapid growth would appear to be decisively over. With headline inflation likely to breach the ECB’s 2% objective later this year, growth is likely to return to a familiar 0.3 or 0.4% per quarter that characterised much of the post financial crisis period. For now, concerns about protectionism and the imposition of US tariffs on European exports continue to weigh in sentiment, reducing new orders and investment opportunities. In this context, the ECB now faces a classic stagflationary shock, with higher inflation and slower growth. The rather sanguine assessment of future growth prospects contained in this week’s minutes of last month’s policy meeting is already looks rather dated. Nevertheless, we continue to believe the ECB will end quantitative easing this year in order to avoid the risk of second round effects at a time when there is clear evidence of increasing labour shortages.
- The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Eurozone Weekly Economic Briefing.
- The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below. Eurozone Weekly Economic Briefings
- Lead Article: Two to five page briefing headed by a synopsis of events-driven analysis for the week, which highlights most recent data releases, and political and economic developments.
- Historical, forecast, and analytical charts and graphs support the lead article. Country specific and/or Eurozone charts include the most relevant indicators and exemplify any changes in the outlook. The historical charts typically offer a 10 to 15 year time series and cover headline and other relevant indicators including GDP, employment, inflation, exchange rate changes, consumer and business confidence, developments in the capital markets, the composition of sovereign debt including amortization schedules and changes in yields, economic outlook by sector, etc. The forecast charts typically look out to four years ahead. In addition, analytical graphics clearly present empirical evidence supporting the text.
- Latest Data in Detail: One to two pages of summary analysis and associated graphics that offer a 10 to 15 year snapshot of the week’s data releases. .
- The Week Ahead: A chart of scheduled data releases including the last release and consensus forecast.
- Key Indicators: Eurozone table showing monthly percentage changes for the past year for the following: Industrial production; unemployment; CPI; business and consumer confidence; and trade.
- Financial Indicators: Eurozone table showing monthly percentage changes for the past year for interest and exchange rates, money supply, share price indices and net foreign direct investment.