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Weekly Economic Briefings - Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing - Global

Weekly Economic Briefings - Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing - Global

China’s trade weighted exchange rate has appreciated by 14% over the past twelve months as the authorities have kept the Yuan stable against the US$ while most other Asian currencies have weakened noticeably. This will have a significant impact on export volumes: China’s exports are particularly sensitive to price effects and strong wage growth in recent years has already been steadily eroding competitiveness. We estimate that the exchange rate appreciation of the last year could lower exports by as much as 11%. Some of this drag will be offset by a modest rise in global demand. However, we now think that goods exports volumes will fall by more than 1% on average this year. This analysis strengthens our view that monetary policy will have to act on the exchange rate as well. Otherwise the Yuan will follow the US$ into even stronger territory when the Fed starts raising interest rates. To avoid this, the Chinese may have to cut rates sharply.


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the product listed.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefings - Lead Article – Four- or five-page briefing of events-driven analysis for the week, which varies depending upon topical economic/political issues and data releases.
The lead article offers both transnational and country specific highlights, with particular emphasis on changes in Oxford Economics’ outlook/forecasts.
- Charts and graphs support the lead article, and add detail to the analysis.
Country specific and/or Emerging Markets charts typically include a number of the following:
GDP; domestic demand and exports; Short-term interest rates; FDI inflows and outflows; FDI inflows as % of GDP; Manufacturing PMI; Policy interest rates; Interest rates and WPI inflation; Consumer prices; FDI and portfolio inflows; Monthly trade balances, etc.
- Latest Data in Detail
- A chart summarizing recent data releases including relevant comparisons to the previous month for the following countries:
Brazil, Russia, India, China, Mexico, Turkey, Taiwan, Poland, Argentina, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, South Africa, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Korea, South Africa, and Chile.
- An Events Chart summarizing the key rate/outcome of monetary policy meetings held in the past week.
- Charts highlighting economic developments and changes in outlook are presented by region: Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe, and the Rest of World - Charts offer time-series data, typically for ten years, on several of the following indicators:
index of monthly economic activity, industrial output, GDP, trade, real exchange rates, inflation, property prices, employment, interest rates, etc, typically in nominal terms but in some cases are indexed and/or adjusted for inflation.
Some of the charts also offer transnational comparisons, for example the trade balances of Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico, or inflation rates.
The measurements, for example an index, percentage, real or nominal levels, % changes, are identified as well as the source of the data.
Charts highlighting Financial developments on several of the following indicators are included and presented as time-series data, typically 1997 to 2011: portfolio flows; foreign exchange reserves; foreign direct investment flows; real effective exchange rates; bank lending to developing economies; Equity Markets; Exchange rates vs. US$; Exchange rates vs. Euros; etc. - Industrial Production - table showing monthly % changes on the previous year for the following countries:
China, Brazil, Korea, India, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, Taiwan, and Poland. - Consumer Prices - table showing monthly percentage % changes on the previous year for the following countries:
China, Brazil, Korea, India, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, Taiwan, and Poland.
- Exports in US$ - table showing monthly % changes on the previous year for the following countries:
China, Brazil, Korea, India, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, Taiwan, and Poland.
- Imports in US$ - table showing monthly % changes on the previous year for the following countries:
China, Brazil, Korea, India, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, Taiwan, and Poland.

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