Weekly Economic Briefings - Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
The interim budget for FY20 (beginning March 2019) put fiscal consolidation on hold, with the government focusing on populist measures ahead of the upcoming general elections. The fiscal deficit target was kept unchanged from this year at 3.4% of GDP, against our expectations of a mild consolidation. The credibility of the budget maths also remains open to scrutiny. With expenditure projected to continue growing at a strong pace, the risks of fiscal slippage are likely to persist in the coming year as well. This poses some risk to our baseline view of a 25bp rate cut in February, as the monetary policy committee may be concerned about the shift in the fiscal stance. Nonetheless, with inflationary pressures muted and downside risks to growth, the cut is likely to be just delayed to the April policy meeting.
The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the product listed. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below. Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefings - Lead Article – Four- or five-page briefing of events-driven analysis for the week, which varies depending upon topical economic/political issues and data releases. The lead article offers both transnational and country specific highlights, with particular emphasis on changes in Oxford Economics’ outlook/forecasts. - Charts and graphs support the lead article, and add detail to the analysis. Country specific and/or Emerging Markets charts typically include a number of the following: GDP; domestic demand and exports; Short-term interest rates; FDI inflows and outflows; FDI inflows as % of GDP; Manufacturing PMI; Policy interest rates; Interest rates and WPI inflation; Consumer prices; FDI and portfolio inflows; Monthly trade balances, etc. - Latest Data in Detail - A chart summarizing recent data releases including relevant comparisons to the previous month for the following countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China, Mexico, Turkey, Taiwan, Poland, Argentina, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, South Africa, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Korea, South Africa, and Chile. - An Events Chart summarizing the key rate/outcome of monetary policy meetings held in the past week. - Charts highlighting economic developments and changes in outlook are presented by region: Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe, and the Rest of World - Charts offer time-series data, typically for ten years, on several of the following indicators: index of monthly economic activity, industrial output, GDP, trade, real exchange rates, inflation, property prices, employment, interest rates, etc, typically in nominal terms but in some cases are indexed and/or adjusted for inflation. Some of the charts also offer transnational comparisons, for example the trade balances of Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico, or inflation rates. The measurements, for example an index, percentage, real or nominal levels, % changes, are identified as well as the source of the data. Charts highlighting Financial developments on several of the following indicators are included and presented as time-series data, typically 1997 to 2011: portfolio flows; foreign exchange reserves; foreign direct investment flows; real effective exchange rates; bank lending to developing economies; Equity Markets; Exchange rates vs. US$; Exchange rates vs. Euros; etc. - Industrial Production - table showing monthly % changes on the previous year for the following countries: China, Brazil, Korea, India, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, Taiwan, and Poland. - Consumer Prices - table showing monthly percentage % changes on the previous year for the following countries: China, Brazil, Korea, India, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, Taiwan, and Poland. - Exports in US$ - table showing monthly % changes on the previous year for the following countries: China, Brazil, Korea, India, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, Taiwan, and Poland. - Imports in US$ - table showing monthly % changes on the previous year for the following countries: China, Brazil, Korea, India, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, Taiwan, and Poland.