Weekly Economic Briefings - Us Weekly Economic Briefing

Attention: There is an updated edition available for this report.

Weekly Economic Briefings - Us Weekly Economic Briefing

As anticipated, the Fed formally adopted flexible average inflation targeting. But, somewhat unexpectedly, it tweaked its employment mandate to be more asymmetric: one in which low unemployment presents less of need to tighten policy so long as inflation remains close to the 2% target. The shift solidified our view that the Fed won’t raise the policy rate until at least mid-2024 and should promote a more inclusive economic expansion. Our Recovery Tracker is building some momentum so far in August. It rose 1.1ppt for a second consecutive week, reaching 79.1 in the week ended Aug. 14. Growth in four of the six dimensions points to relative resilience. But given the fiscal aid impasse, the unchanged demand tracker since the end of July and weakening employment gains are worrisome. We estimate the lapse in federal supplemental unemployment benefits will reduce in August by around $55 billion, or $650bn annualized, and estimate that President Trump’s partial extension will cover payments for only five weeks. The steep decline in federal support will depress consumer confidence and spending and weigh on the broader recovery.

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the US Weekly Economic Briefing.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
US Weekly Economic Briefings
Highlights: Briefing on events-driven analysis for the week, which varies depending upon data.
Credit Crunch Watch:
Financial Stress and Monetary Conditions Indicators, along with discussion of their latest movements. Brief discussion of latest trends in the US and Eurozone economies.
Detailed charts of the components of the Financial Stress and Monetary Conditions Indicators.
Credit Crunch Timeline: Summary of major economic events since the beginning of the financial crisis.
Latest Data in Detail: Charts and analysis on the important releases of the previous week, such as: inflation indicators, consumer confidence, retail sales, durable goods orders etc.
The Week Ahead: Scheduled key data releases for the upcoming week, including information on previous data and forecast data.
Key Economic Indicators: The previous year’s monthly data for a number of key macroeconomic indicators, including the unemployment rate, output, retail sales, inflation, and trade balance.
Key Financial Indicators: The previous year’s monthly data for a number of key financial indicators including: Short and long term interest rates, key exchange rates, money supply, S&P 500, and reserves.

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