Weekly Economic Briefings - Us Weekly Economic Briefing

Attention: There is an updated edition available for this report.

Weekly Economic Briefings - Us Weekly Economic Briefing

Data released this week confirmed the economy experienced a strong initial recovery phase in May, with consumer spending bursting back to life and factory activity resuming. But real-time data suggest the economy has already entered the slower second phase of the recovery. With Covid-19 infections surging nationwide, a swift reversal of momentum is a key risk. After improving for 10 weeks in a row, our Recovery Tracker fell 0.4ppts to 72.9% in the week ended June 12 due to renewed financial market stress and rising Covid-19 infections. And, the preliminary data for the week ended June 19 points to moderate momentum restrained by a slower pace of employment and cautious demand. Looking ahead, the fate of the recovery mostly depends on whether the recent flare-up in infections is contained. If the health situation continues to deteriorate, confidence will follow suit. This will lead to reduced mobility, less employment, and eventually slower demand with significant financial market risks. Failure to provide further fiscal stimulus is another key downside risk.

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the US Weekly Economic Briefing.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below. US Weekly Economic Briefings
Highlights: Briefing on events-driven analysis for the week, which varies depending upon data.
Credit Crunch Watch:
Financial Stress and Monetary Conditions Indicators, along with discussion of their latest movements. Brief discussion of latest trends in the US and Eurozone economies.
Detailed charts of the components of the Financial Stress and Monetary Conditions Indicators.
Credit Crunch Timeline: Summary of major economic events since the beginning of the financial crisis.
Latest Data in Detail: Charts and analysis on the important releases of the previous week, such as: inflation indicators, consumer confidence, retail sales, durable goods orders etc.
The Week Ahead: Scheduled key data releases for the upcoming week, including information on previous data and forecast data.
Key Economic Indicators: The previous year’s monthly data for a number of key macroeconomic indicators, including the unemployment rate, output, retail sales, inflation, and trade balance.
Key Financial Indicators: The previous year’s monthly data for a number of key financial indicators including: Short and long term interest rates, key exchange rates, money supply, S&P 500, and reserves.

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