Weekly Economic Briefings - Us Weekly Economic Briefing
The Fed’s remarkable dovish pivot at this week’s FOMC meeting – with abundant dovish forward guidance and the ‘dot plot’ showing as many as seven officials expecting two rate cuts in 2019 – has set the bar low for a July move. We now believe the Fed will cut rates in July and September this year amid increased trade uncertainty, slower growth momentum, a lingering inflation undershoot, and a decline in inflation expectations. While the US economy is expected to cool appreciably – from 3.0% growth currently to less than 2.0% in 2020 – looser Fed policy along with the global easing cycle will provide a welcome buffer. If, as we now expect, the Fed cut rates twice in 2019 and once in 2020, this would provide a 0.3ppt growth buffer to real GDP in 2020 versus a scenario featuring no policy moves.
- The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the US Weekly Economic Briefing.
- The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below. US Weekly Economic Briefings
- Highlights: Briefing on events-driven analysis for the week, which varies depending upon data.
- Credit Crunch Watch:
- Financial Stress and Monetary Conditions Indicators, along with discussion of their latest movements. Brief discussion of latest trends in the US and Eurozone economies.
- Detailed charts of the components of the Financial Stress and Monetary Conditions Indicators.
- Credit Crunch Timeline: Summary of major economic events since the beginning of the financial crisis.
- Latest Data in Detail: Charts and analysis on the important releases of the previous week, such as: inflation indicators, consumer confidence, retail sales, durable goods orders etc.
- The Week Ahead: Scheduled key data releases for the upcoming week, including information on previous data and forecast data.
- Key Economic Indicators: The previous year’s monthly data for a number of key macroeconomic indicators, including the unemployment rate, output, retail sales, inflation, and trade balance.
- Key Financial Indicators: The previous year’s monthly data for a number of key financial indicators including: Short and long term interest rates, key exchange rates, money supply, S&P 500, and reserves.