Weekly Economic Briefings > Us Weekly Economic Briefing

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Weekly Economic Briefings - Us Weekly Economic Briefing

The Fed’s remarkable dovish pivot at this week’s FOMC meeting – with abundant dovish forward guidance and the ‘dot plot’ showing as many as seven officials expecting two rate cuts in 2019 – has set the bar low for a July move. We now believe the Fed will cut rates in July and September this year amid increased trade uncertainty, slower growth momentum, a lingering inflation undershoot, and a decline in inflation expectations. While the US economy is expected to cool appreciably – from 3.0% growth currently to less than 2.0% in 2020 – looser Fed policy along with the global easing cycle will provide a welcome buffer. If, as we now expect, the Fed cut rates twice in 2019 and once in 2020, this would provide a 0.3ppt growth buffer to real GDP in 2020 versus a scenario featuring no policy moves.

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the US Weekly Economic Briefing.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
US Weekly Economic Briefings
Highlights: Briefing on events-driven analysis for the week, which varies depending upon data.
Credit Crunch Watch:
Financial Stress and Monetary Conditions Indicators, along with discussion of their latest movements. Brief discussion of latest trends in the US and Eurozone economies.
Detailed charts of the components of the Financial Stress and Monetary Conditions Indicators.
Credit Crunch Timeline: Summary of major economic events since the beginning of the financial crisis.
Latest Data in Detail: Charts and analysis on the important releases of the previous week, such as: inflation indicators, consumer confidence, retail sales, durable goods orders etc.
The Week Ahead: Scheduled key data releases for the upcoming week, including information on previous data and forecast data.
Key Economic Indicators: The previous year’s monthly data for a number of key macroeconomic indicators, including the unemployment rate, output, retail sales, inflation, and trade balance.
Key Financial Indicators: The previous year’s monthly data for a number of key financial indicators including: Short and long term interest rates, key exchange rates, money supply, S&P 500, and reserves.

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