Weekly Economic Briefings - Us Weekly Economic Briefing
The Fed executed a surprising policy U-turn at its January meeting by delivering an extremely dovish message that exceeded even the most dovish expectations. To the delight of markets, the “Powell put” reflected a long (indefinite?) rate hike pause as well as an indication that balance sheet normalization would respond to market conditions. Reflective of this new Fed stance, we are now calling for one rate hike this year instead of two previously. We believe the Fed maintains a slight tightening bias, but we do not expect the next rate hike to come before Q3. The upbeat tone of January economic data – including the rebound in the ISM manufacturing index and the upside surprise in January payrolls – stood in stark contrast with evidence of slower economic momentum in China and Europe. Importantly though, we continue to foresee the US economy slowing from 3% to 2% by year end as dissipating fiscal stimulus, tighter financial conditions and lingering trade tensions constrain growth.
- The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the US Weekly Economic Briefing.
- The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
- US Weekly Economic Briefings
- Highlights: Briefing on events-driven analysis for the week, which varies depending upon data.
- Credit Crunch Watch:
- Financial Stress and Monetary Conditions Indicators, along with discussion of their latest movements. Brief discussion of latest trends in the US and Eurozone economies.
- Detailed charts of the components of the Financial Stress and Monetary Conditions Indicators.
- Credit Crunch Timeline: Summary of major economic events since the beginning of the financial crisis.
- Latest Data in Detail: Charts and analysis on the important releases of the previous week, such as: inflation indicators, consumer confidence, retail sales, durable goods orders etc.
- The Week Ahead: Scheduled key data releases for the upcoming week, including information on previous data and forecast data.
- Key Economic Indicators: The previous year’s monthly data for a number of key macroeconomic indicators, including the unemployment rate, output, retail sales, inflation, and trade balance.
- Key Financial Indicators: The previous year’s monthly data for a number of key financial indicators including: Short and long term interest rates, key exchange rates, money supply, S&P 500, and reserves.