Weekly Economic Briefings - Us Weekly Economic Briefing
This week’s stock market correction (S&P down 4%) and a mild inversion in the belly of the yield curve (2-year/5-year) have sparked renewed recession talk. While these market signals shouldn’t be discarded, we believe they reflect excessive growth pessimism. With economic growth well supported by solid fundamentals, inflation pressures contained, and a dovish Fed tilt, we expect only a moderate slowdown in economic activity in the coming quarters. Our top 10 calls for the US economy in 2019 foresee economic growth gradually slowing towards 2% by the end of next year and highlight the relatively low probability of a recession in 2019 (20%). Increased protectionism and a lingering trade drag is also one of our key themes for next year as we believe the odds of further escalation in early 2019 are high. Indeed, the tentative US-China trade détente following the G20 meeting has proven short-lived as news of the arrest of a top Chinese executive at the request of the US government stoked fears it could derail recent negotiations.
- The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the US Weekly Economic Briefing.
- The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below. US Weekly Economic Briefings
- Highlights: Briefing on events-driven analysis for the week, which varies depending upon data.
- Credit Crunch Watch:
- Financial Stress and Monetary Conditions Indicators, along with discussion of their latest movements. Brief discussion of latest trends in the US and Eurozone economies.
- Detailed charts of the components of the Financial Stress and Monetary Conditions Indicators.
- Credit Crunch Timeline: Summary of major economic events since the beginning of the financial crisis.
- Latest Data in Detail: Charts and analysis on the important releases of the previous week, such as: inflation indicators, consumer confidence, retail sales, durable goods orders etc.
- The Week Ahead: Scheduled key data releases for the upcoming week, including information on previous data and forecast data.
- Key Economic Indicators: The previous year’s monthly data for a number of key macroeconomic indicators, including the unemployment rate, output, retail sales, inflation, and trade balance.
- Key Financial Indicators: The previous year’s monthly data for a number of key financial indicators including: Short and long term interest rates, key exchange rates, money supply, S&P 500, and reserves.