Weekly Economic Briefings - Us Weekly Economic Briefing
The highlight of the week was news of a breakthrough in US-Mexico trade talks, but despite the hype we caution that much work remains to be done. Canada still needs to join the deal, and even if it does, this will remain an agreement in principle with many details needing to be ironed out in the coming weeks. Simultaneously, the administration seems willing and ready to impose 10% tariffs on a further $200 billion of imports from China as early as next week. Real GDP growth was confirmed at 4.2% in Q2 while real disposable income and outlays are trending just below 3% y/y. Looking ahead, we foresee the pace of economic growth moderating towards 2.5-3.0% in H2. The digital economy is a key and growing driver of US growth, employment, wages and productivity, and it acts as an important restraint on inflation. As it continues to grow faster than the rest of the economy, we see it as a significant driver of future growth.
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