Weekly Economic Briefings - Us Weekly Economic Briefing
In the first quarter, the US economy is likely to register its slowest advance in a year with GDP growth at 1.8%. However, we believe this slowdown will be temporary, and we expect a confident private sector, reduced tax burdens and rising government outlays will boost growth from Q2 onward. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will chair his first FOMC meeting next week, and likely mark the occasion with a 25bp increase in the federal funds rate. We also expect Fed officials will raise their macroeconomic projections, with the Fed adopting a modestly more hawkish tone in its communication. While elevated levels of outstanding consumer credit and a slowdown in credit growth have some alarm bells ringing, credit supply and demand conditions, loan performance and debt servicing indicate risks are contained.